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  • #1,147,161
  • Dec 19, 2018 12:49am Dec 19, 2018 12:49am
Quoting JustPipMe
{quote} Yeah, sidelines for me today. My gut tells me nobody enjoys Trumpy breathing down his neck, so Powell may sound a bit dovish. But I could just have an upset stummy. So don’t trust my gut!
Yeap, most likely sideways market ahead the clash of titans
In the red corner Mr. Trump - the rabid aggressive businessman
In the blue corner Mr. Powell - the wise clerk
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  • #1,147,162
  • Dec 19, 2018 1:02am Dec 19, 2018 1:02am
Quoting fahadzaman66
guys what is expectation FOMC can you little guide here what is next move for EU ? kindly explain thanks. i m confuse
"The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely forecast to raise the Fed Funds rate 25 basis points to 2.5% after its scheduled two-day meeting on Wednesday December 19th. The bank will also release its "Projections Materials" detailing the expected course of the US economy and interest rate policy over the next three years. 'Data dependent' means taking your cues from the economy."

source:fxstreet.com

In my point of view Trump runs US a bit wild, his economic sector is not dissapointing.
  • #1,147,163
  • Dec 19, 2018 1:07am Dec 19, 2018 1:07am
Quoting irinsexpert
{quote} "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely forecast to raise the Fed Funds rate 25 basis points to 2.5% after its scheduled two-day meeting on Wednesday December 19th. The bank will also release its "Projections Materials" detailing the expected course of the US economy and interest rate policy over the next three years. 'Data dependent' means taking your cues from the economy." source:fxstreet.com In my point of view Trump runs US a bit wild, his economic sector is not dissapointing.
so as per this we can say market will sell mostly EU and GU against FOMC m i right because Fed Funds rate 2.25% to basis points to 2.5%
  • #1,147,164
  • Dec 19, 2018 1:13am Dec 19, 2018 1:13am
Quoting irinsexpert
{quote} "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely forecast to raise the Fed Funds rate 25 basis points to 2.5% after its scheduled two-day meeting on Wednesday December 19th. The bank will also release its "Projections Materials" detailing the expected course of the US economy and interest rate policy over the next three years. 'Data dependent' means taking your cues from the economy." source:fxstreet.com In my point of view Trump runs US a bit wild, his economic sector is not dissapointing.
Yes, ok, everybody knows that Trump is way too much aggressive and that might come back to him and to the American people real ugly...
But the whole point is what market believes...

At this point traders and analysts say that the hike is no surprise, is a certain thing,
but Powell might sound dovish as he already said the situation is near to neutral regarding the opportunity for higher rates...

Today, everything is up to Powell's speach, and how that might fill the market and analysts expectations.
Also the 2019 Fed rates targets and projections (see the famous dot plot chart changes!)
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  • #1,147,165
  • Dec 19, 2018 1:33am Dec 19, 2018 1:33am
Bulls!
On Weekly, the chart is responding to some kind of 1.1300 phobia.
Probably the traders are more and more inclined to put their stake on a dovish Fed ...but who the fk knows what will happen until Fed!
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  • #1,147,166
  • Dec 19, 2018 1:42am Dec 19, 2018 1:42am
I am expecting just 15% chance for a rate cut.. They likley to kick the can down the road
  • #1,147,167
  • Edited 2:00am Dec 19, 2018 1:46am | Edited 2:00am
Quoting Leesi
I am expecting just 15% chance for a rate cut.. They likley to kick the can down the road
Some people expects more cutting for the next year ...but not today
Member
  • #1,147,168
  • Dec 19, 2018 1:52am Dec 19, 2018 1:52am
Sold 1403 stop loss 1438.. if a fall comes i wil book
  • #1,147,169
  • Dec 19, 2018 2:00am Dec 19, 2018 2:00am
euro is getting close to the resistance range between 1.1408 to 1.1430

from my experience since euro reached this level before today's big news it means we will not see a real breakout yet

so my expectation that this level will hold and might put the price back down below 1.1390

lets see how it goes

over all I am bullish in euro

and if euro drop to 1.133x area it will be another chance to go long
  • #1,147,170
  • Dec 19, 2018 2:05am Dec 19, 2018 2:05am
Quoting msniper
{quote} any alternative count from you ? I am still bullish in euro all the way to between 1.15 to 1.20. when we reach the range of 1.15 to 1.20 the smart money will start to build short positions again let me know if you have any alternative count in case euro broke to the upside today
I believe I just find the right count.....

I was still bearish because I just could not find the lower degree matches the higher degree....but now I found a correct count in it. Look here
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,147,171
  • Dec 19, 2018 2:16am Dec 19, 2018 2:16am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} I believe I just find the right count..... I was still bearish because I just could not find the lower degree matches the higher degree....but now I found a correct count in it. Look here
what is the invalidation of this count ? and if it invalidate do you have a bullish count on your mind ?

and what is the target of this bearish scenario is it small drop like 1300 and 1200 level or more deep ?
  • #1,147,172
  • Dec 19, 2018 2:26am Dec 19, 2018 2:26am
Quoting msniper
{quote} what is the invalidation of this count ? and if it invalidate do you have a bullish count on your mind ? and what is the target of this bearish scenario is it small drop like 1300 and 1200 level or more deep ?
No I don't have a bullish count in my mind... I'm sorry I can't find a bullish one atm....
We are now in the yellow 5-wave move down....now in wave- b/iii the extreme of the wave b/iii is around... 1.1728 (if this broken then it's time to look further....not before)

if I follow the 1.1604 (for the wave-b/iii) I can see normal projections towards 1.0724 for the yellow wave-c/iii. I don't look further...but I want to remember this is the wave iii of a 5-wave move down and this is all running in higher degree what is also pointing downwards...... So I'm really bearish. well is this important? No I don't think so.... It's just a rough expectation and I just look for the coming moves..... not for moves in the coming months!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,147,173
  • Dec 19, 2018 2:34am Dec 19, 2018 2:34am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} No I don't have a bullish count in my mind... I'm sorry I can't find a bullish one atm.... We are now in the yellow 5-wave move down....now in wave- b/iii the extreme of the wave b/iii is around... 1.1728 (if this broken then it's time to look further....not before) if I follow the 1.1604 (for the wave-b/iii) I can see normal projections towards 1.0724 for the yellow wave-c/iii. I don't look further...but I want to remember this is the wave iii of a 5-wave move down and this is all running in higher degree what is also pointing downwards.........
so what I understand from you that your invalidation for bearish scenario is going above 1.1728 yah ?

so there is a possibility my scenario will work to go up 1.15 and 1.16 before the big drop which will make us both win win cause no one invalidated your bearish scenario yet
  • #1,147,174
  • Edited 3:09am Dec 19, 2018 2:50am | Edited 3:09am
Quoting msniper
{quote} so what I understand from you that your invalidation for bearish scenario is going above 1.1728 yah ? so there is a possibility my scenario will work to go up 1.15 and 1.16 before the big drop which will make us both win win cause no one invalidated your bearish scenario yet
Well that is correct....
look at the possible retracements I have for the yellow wave b/iii 50% is a normal retracement

from 61,80% to 85,4% is a deep retracement. Can be expected after a quick and deep move.
and above the 85,40 retracements are rare... but can be seen sometimes. (above 1.1815... the yellow wave ii is 100% a count break)

In this view:
We are now saw the abc...currently in a wave-x (a connection wave towards the next zigzag) the next zigzag must end above the last zigzag @1.1472

Last days I also looked to the balance area... in all time frames balanced...but not in the daily.... For my feeling it has to come higher and break the sma89
Look at the sma89 and the sma200 (balance area) in the daily and and ema365 in the daily.... I now think the sma89 is under attack...and possibly even the ema365 @1.1620. I guess the sma200 is too high it would be a rare retracement(!) I noramlly see price comes back towards those lines... a sort of balance area in all timeframes. That also was making me suspicious that my count was not that correct...but oke then you still have to find the correct one I hope I did now!

ps. Look in the 4H-chart at the ema365..... it is there at 1.1420-25 now.... that is around the triangle leg ^D...
and in the 4H the sma89 is around 1.1348 now.... that is also around the expected triangle leg ^E...

it looks hopefull...but is it really working out this way......?
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You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,147,175
  • Dec 19, 2018 3:14am Dec 19, 2018 3:14am
Quoting TudorIoan
My Intraday Outlook. (ahead London) The big day. "The Fed's next decision is its most important in recent memory and the fu I'll sell 1.1379 and buy 1393, Tiny trade for fun, because we might face a waiting range ahead FOMC today. Big news days are to avoid range trading, because of the waiting range may consume lots of SLs ! Have a great trading day, you all! {image}
Closed at 1.1404 ...I don't like that Weekly_R1 resistance zone.
Called off my standard 20 pips, I will be thankful only for +11 this time ...exactly, because the FOMC
Now it can soar to 1.2000, I don't care
I'll wait the Fed. If firm direction I'll jump in.
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  • #1,147,176
  • Dec 19, 2018 4:02am Dec 19, 2018 4:02am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Closed at 1.1404 ...I don't like that Weekly_R1 resistance zone. Called off my standard 20 pips, I will be thankful only for +11 this time ...exactly, because the FOMC Now it can soar to 1.2000, I don't care I'll wait the Fed. If firm direction I'll jump in. {image}
Wise decision!....

We heading towards leg ^e if my count is correct...
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,147,177
  • Dec 19, 2018 4:08am Dec 19, 2018 4:08am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Wise decision!.... We heading towards leg ^e if my count is correct...
OMG, I wasn't around for a while, now I can see the chart!
Right, it was hanging too much around that 1405 resistance... who the fk would buy more ahead the greatest conference of the year ?!
...only if a couple of millions French citizens would bring flowers and build a beautiful monument in Paris for Macron
...or the britons for PM May in London
Member
  • #1,147,178
  • Dec 19, 2018 4:46am Dec 19, 2018 4:46am
Italy's Government source said the EU Commission has accepted the 2019 budget deficit of 2.04%. This comes after sources from PM Conte’s office said Italy has received only verbal assurances from the EU Commission over the budget deal and it is reasonable to expect a positive outcome at EU commission meeting on Wednesday. Later, Italian Economy Minister Tria's spokesperson said Italy has completed a deal with the EU commission over the budget.

FX markets were choppy in which the USD index remained sub-97.000 and retreated to lows of 96.830 in the run-up to the FOMC interest rate decision, which is widely expected to result in a dovish hike. As such, EUR/USD was pushed further above of 1.1350 while GBP/USD breached 1.2650 to the upside.

Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 GMT:
EUR/USD: 1.1295-1.1300 (0.835 BLN), 1.1355-60 (1.0 BLN) and 1.1375 (1.0 BLN).

Looking to short again but this time at 1.1460 with a target at 1.1300 and a stop at 1.1505.
  • #1,147,179
  • Dec 19, 2018 4:57am Dec 19, 2018 4:57am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Wise decision!.... We heading towards leg ^e if my count is correct...
and still running towards the 1.1420....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,147,180
  • Dec 19, 2018 5:19am Dec 19, 2018 5:19am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Today, everything is up to Powell's speach, and how that might fill the market and analysts expectations. Also the 2019 Fed rates targets and projections (see the famous dot plot chart changes!) {image}
Hi TudorIoan

and everybody is waiting.
hope its raised
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