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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #79,481
  • Dec 16, 2018 5:22pm Dec 16, 2018 5:22pm
Quoting MrAashir
{quote} So does this mean should i short or go long?

At the very least if you go short and it goes up, you'll be sharing your misery with lots and lots of other people.

So there was also a big spike in short money at the end of November which coincided with a a decent daily bull candle 26/11, 5 days of uncertainty, then decent bear candle 4/12. The bear candle 4/12 happened when a lot of short money had already gone, if I'm reading the chart right. ???????


I have to go clean my house for new guests, be back in a few hours.
  • #79,482
  • Dec 16, 2018 6:07pm Dec 16, 2018 6:07pm
Quoting hellsbells
{quote} At the very least if you go short and it goes up, you'll be sharing your misery with lots and lots of other people. So there was also a big spike in short money at the end of November which coincided with a a decent daily bull candle 26/11, 5 days of uncertainty, then decent bear candle 4/12. The bear candle 4/12 happened when a lot of short money had already gone, if I'm reading the chart right. ??????? I have to go clean my house for new guests, be back in a few hours.
i know i've already learnt the lesson no shorting usd jpy until good news for jpy. And that data looks bullish as well everybody selling might go up 100 pips more before eventually comming down. Very tempted to buy but idk will keep following.
  • #79,483
  • Edited 9:18pm Dec 16, 2018 9:07pm | Edited 9:18pm
right well I now have 3 shorts..
1- tough resistance that held on the hour,
2- my hopeful strange TL
3- resistance at 61fib retracement
4- i love shorts
5- bearish 5min candle with break below recent support of 113.478

The 2nd pic is my main chart i use, I really want it to break below 113.444 and below my diagonal TL based on 5min

If a whole 5min candle completes above 113.478 i will close trades
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  • #79,484
  • Dec 16, 2018 9:39pm Dec 16, 2018 9:39pm
closed 2/3 trades ( for $4.66) as it didn't do what I wanted... I but I do believe it's thinking about it. A close below my TL would also mean a close below both 50 and 100SMA on 30 min complete with 3 candle reversal which was all possibly a bit much to ask for..
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  • #79,485
  • Dec 16, 2018 9:47pm Dec 16, 2018 9:47pm
Quoting hellsbells
closed 2/3 trades ( for $4.66) as it didn't do what I wanted... I but I do believe it's thinking about it. A close below my TL would also mean a close below both 50 and 100SMA on 30 min complete with 3 candle reversal which was all possibly a bit much to ask for.. {image}
Man lower timeframe for me sucks i am not trading anything below h4 from now one rather take 1/2 trades per week than trade all the time.
  • #79,486
  • Edited 10:02pm Dec 16, 2018 9:50pm | Edited 10:02pm
Quoting MrAashir
{quote} Man lower timeframe for me sucks i am not trading anything below h4 from now one rather take 1/2 trades per week than trade all the time.

For me I try to find a good entry on the 5min, then when I get it to BE or at least a SL I'm super happy with , then I look to higher timeframes. The problem with H4 is knowing where to enter and have a good SL. I think THAT is really hard

The next 2 hours are what I call the dead zone, when it tends to range.
  • #79,487
  • Dec 16, 2018 11:51pm Dec 16, 2018 11:51pm
Quoting hellsbells
{quote} For me I try to find a good entry on the 5min, then when I get it to BE or at least a SL I'm super happy with , then I look to higher timeframes. The problem with H4 is knowing where to enter and have a good SL. I think THAT is really hard The next 2 hours are what I call the dead zone, when it tends to range.
Yea man its hard but we can have good profits when it works our way. For entries i look at 1hour and 30 min. Hammer and shooting star is very reliable in longer timeframes.
  • #79,488
  • Dec 17, 2018 12:11am Dec 17, 2018 12:11am
trying again
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  • #79,489
  • Dec 17, 2018 1:18am Dec 17, 2018 1:18am
nice. Tightened my trades to BE, I do sincerely hope it stays below 113.450
  • #79,490
  • Dec 17, 2018 1:38am Dec 17, 2018 1:38am
Sell USDJPY at 113.4x
Sl 113.73
Tp 112.7x
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  • #79,491
  • Dec 17, 2018 2:03am Dec 17, 2018 2:03am
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Trade Tip:
Guys, I'm waiting for a break above 114.00 to buy this pair towards 118.0
  • #79,492
  • Dec 17, 2018 4:03am Dec 17, 2018 4:03am
TP 1/3 113.343.

H4 candle just completed, and we have a 3 candle reversal. My other 2 trades BE, one TP per pic, other open.
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  • #79,493
  • Dec 17, 2018 11:50am Dec 17, 2018 11:50am
Quoting WallStBeggar
{quote} The last hourly bar close below H4 and now approaching Daily Zones
The trend, don't fight it. Let it flow. Understanding why people are dumping the dollar.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #79,494
  • Dec 17, 2018 1:49pm Dec 17, 2018 1:49pm
Predict today's move, could a trader have? Confirmation, ask for more, does he hmmm?

Trend break,
Retouch,
Trend break
Retouch
Trend break
Retouch
Harmonic shark pattern
RSI Overbought
Cumulative Volume Overbought,

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For my ally is the chart, and a powerful ally it is. The market creates it, makes it grow. Its movement surrounds us, binds us. Luminous traders are we, not this crude matter. You must feel the chart around you, here, there, between you, me, that screen, everywhere, yes. Even between you're finger and mouse.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #79,495
  • Dec 17, 2018 1:54pm Dec 17, 2018 1:54pm
Quoting MrAashir
{quote} So does this mean should i short or go long?
Follow the US Dollar, U/J follows it
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  • #79,496
  • Dec 17, 2018 2:03pm Dec 17, 2018 2:03pm
Quoting hellsbells
right well I now have 3 shorts.. 1- tough resistance that held on the hour, 2- my hopeful strange TL 3- resistance at 61fib retracement 4- i love shorts 5- bearish 5min candle with break below recent support of 113.478 The 2nd pic is my main chart i use, I really want it to break below 113.444 and below my diagonal TL based on 5min If a whole 5min candle completes above 113.478 i will close trades {image} {image}

Sorry, but your "strange TL" is drawn in, incorrectly... place them perfectly either on the highs (If your looking for breaks) or the closes (if u want a better fill for TP level)
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  • #79,497
  • Dec 17, 2018 2:07pm Dec 17, 2018 2:07pm
Quoting WallStBeggar
{quote} everyday is different trend..until before london open tomorrow the moves might still going south

no its not, trend dont change each day, there are generally 3-5 lows or highs before correcting... perfect example, elliot wave analysis.

Asian sessions are the MM/Banks spread, these determine the high or the low of the day
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  • #79,498
  • Dec 17, 2018 2:13pm Dec 17, 2018 2:13pm
Quoting MrAashir
{quote} Yes i know all of that but still it is soo hard to stay disciplined. Hour candle Reversal is great and all but it doesnt work in ranging markets and my strategy is similar as well and normally i dont trade on fridays as it mostly range but god greed got better of me when i saw trade opportunity got right in and then got screwed my ranging market.

staying disciplined is easy.. the problem youre having is you dont have a plan/routine.. create one,and dont sway from it. And trading days dont matter either, there are over 30 currency pairs, while some dont move, others are moving due to overbought/sold fractal disparities

i would suggest u stay off live ac, and go back to the demo, double the demo with a 95% win rate, then go back to the live.
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  • #79,499
  • Dec 17, 2018 2:15pm Dec 17, 2018 2:15pm
Quoting WallStBeggar
Demand in Order Hourly bar for the second time tested demand zones {image}
demand is at the bottom, not the top
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  • #79,500
  • Dec 17, 2018 2:17pm Dec 17, 2018 2:17pm
Quoting Prisha
{image} Trade Tip: Guys, I'm waiting for a break above 114.00 to buy this pair towards 118.0
aint happening, those rejections are a pure sign of dropping and to the far right ( the up trend channel is a bearish compression )... easy sell all day long
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