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The only thread you will ever need: FX Exposed!

  • #10,341
  • Dec 12, 2018 11:24am Dec 12, 2018 11:24am
Where is FF?
It's a bit that I'm not seeing any post from him.
  • #10,342
  • Dec 12, 2018 12:47pm Dec 12, 2018 12:47pm
Quoting Merka
Where is FF? It's a bit that I'm not seeing any post from him.
He's working on the astral SM/DM only thread you ever need method.....will be ready shortly once the planets align.

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10,343
  • Edited Dec 13, 2018 4:28am Dec 12, 2018 2:27pm | Edited Dec 13, 2018 4:28am
EU updated

gray lines are levels already cleaned
Attached Image
  • #10,344
  • Dec 12, 2018 9:39pm Dec 12, 2018 9:39pm
Quoting JGalt
EU updated {image}
For EUR-USD I have placed short sell trades at 1.136548 as I believe those DM shorts buy stop orders have been accumulated by the SM and they will reverse the market down, also the move looks tired to me, waiting for London open.
  • #10,345
  • Edited Dec 13, 2018 2:20am Dec 12, 2018 10:37pm | Edited Dec 13, 2018 2:20am
Quoting JennyMK
{quote} For EUR-USD I have placed short sell trades at 1.136548 as I believe those DM shorts buy stop orders have been accumulated by the SM and they will reverse the market down, also the move looks tired to me, waiting for London open.
Jenny, curious,
it is Asian session, the usual 20ish pips range on EU, sideways....today that is 1.1362-77....15 pips....
but even in recent swing low-high was 1.1356-87...only 31 pips range...

then you decide to short from the very middle of the sideways range, without anything but some theory, and a hope London will bring a move.
why not wait for London and see if any of the above sideways range break?
given that they are rather narrow, it isnt that you would need to give up lots of pips for seeing a bit more clearly where the market want to head today ( breakout or breakdown).
not a Picasso, but here how i see it.
the blue is recent low/high, the yellow is today's/Asia
the CSM shows equal EUR and USD strength.
RSI confirm that, neutral just around 50.
London open still away, the price if anything, very undecided.
thus, was the question: why to short here?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 13.12..png Size: 44 KB



ps. it may turn out a completely good trade, but still it is completely baseless and as random as dart throwing.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #10,346
  • Dec 13, 2018 12:50am Dec 13, 2018 12:50am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} thus, was the question: why to short here?
I was looking to short at the weekly pivot level as I saw some engulfing candlesticks there and thought that the SM would have accumulated the DM short buy stop orders already, I think I was too impatient and got in too early, I should have waited for London to open and wait to see what they are doing, maybe I read the candlesticks wrong too. I am still not sure what to look for when how to read the stop loss getting hit, and where to enter with the SM.
  • #10,347
  • Dec 13, 2018 12:54am Dec 13, 2018 12:54am
Quoting JennyMK
{quote} I was looking to short at the weekly pivot level as I saw some engulfing candlesticks there and thought that the SM would have accumulated the DM short buy stop orders already, I think I was too impatient and got in too early, I should have waited for London to open and wait to see what they are doing, maybe I read the candlesticks wrong too. I am still not sure what to look for when how to read the stop loss getting hit, and where to enter with the SM.
if uncertain, or 50-50 chance, wait?
i dont have magic charts, and i was not saying that the trade was right or wrong,
only for your benefit, asked what would be the reason to open a trade in the middle of nowhere ( both in chart, as well as trading session wise).
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #10,348
  • Edited 5:21am Dec 13, 2018 1:10am | Edited 5:21am
Quoting JennyMK
{quote} I was looking to short at the weekly pivot level as I saw some engulfing candlesticks there and thought that the SM would have accumulated the DM short buy stop orders already, I think I was too impatient and got in too early, I should have waited for London to open and wait to see what they are doing, maybe I read the candlesticks wrong too. I am still not sure what to look for when how to read the stop loss getting hit, and where to enter with the SM.
What can i say? You have a long long way to go. Only a pity to watch you suffer what was suffered by all when it can be avoided. Wish I could wish you a safe journey but knowing that your journey, fx journey, is everything but safe.
Especially with FF gone and reborn not as a sniper nor a Rambo but a commando trader in form of Timetells. He learned that too from guess who?

Just one for you for the love of you now:
Candlesticks will tell you anything you already want to be told especially if you look at MTF. They will confirm whatever bias you already have. They will lead to analysis paralysis. It's all SM made crap to deflect traders from what matters like those default MT4 indicators and many "pervasive/common" concepts 97% of DM are fed from the onset so no surprise 95% of DM apply them and fail and if you do and use same tools and principles, your bet is as good as mine.
I do not expect you to agree or believe now, maybe 5yrs down this gory lane you may.
Know News/time; WAIT for Edge Entries, MPLC Normalization, Exits & TP's..
  • #10,349
  • Dec 13, 2018 1:47am Dec 13, 2018 1:47am
Quoting princefred
{quote} It's all SM made crap like those MT4 indicators to deflect traders from what matters.
Hello princefred
I do believe that you are right, as my entry was based on bearish engulfing candles, it pretty much reversed up as soon as I entered the trade. Thank you for speaking the truth, it is a shame that there are so little charts with entries here to learn from, with precise entry criteria that we could read through and learn from, or make a checklist. I understand perhaps people do not want to give too much info away also? I guess people work hard for it so I understand that for sure and do not want to give away trade secrets? I am not really sure how FX operates, this is completely different from what I am used to as a professional in other areas.

Quoting JennyMK
{quote} For EUR-USD I have placed short sell trades at 1.136548 as I believe those DM shorts buy stop orders have been accumulated by the SM and they will reverse the market down, also the move looks tired to me, waiting for London open.
Stop loss hit on 2 x short trade, so I am out.
  • #10,350
  • Dec 13, 2018 2:03am Dec 13, 2018 2:03am
Quoting JennyMK
{quote} Hello princefred I do believe that you are right, as my entry was based on bearish engulfing candles, it pretty much reversed up as soon as I entered the trade. Thank you for speaking the truth, it is a shame that there are so little charts with entries here to learn from, with precise entry criteria that we could read through and learn from, or make a checklist. I understand perhaps people do not want to give too much info away also? I guess people work hard for it so I understand that for sure and do not want to give away trade secrets?...
Hey Jenny, I'll save you years of "life"

Up/Down
Breakout/Pullback
Trend/Sideways
Risk Control/Gambling
-------------------------
Probabilities
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POW!
  • #10,351
  • Edited 5:38am Dec 13, 2018 2:06am | Edited 5:38am
Quoting JennyMK
{quote} Hello princefred I do believe that you are right, as my entry was based on bearish engulfing candles, it pretty much reversed up as soon as I entered the trade. Thank you for speaking the truth, it is a shame that there are so little charts with entries here to learn from, with precise entry criteria that we could read through and learn from, or make a checklist. I understand perhaps people do not want to give too much info away also? I guess people work hard for it so I understand that for sure and do not want to give away trade secrets?...
I understand. Being on FF and doing those can be a huge mental burden, distraction and cost even a trader (depending on his/her system) the market being soo dynamic.
For now all i have to say is:
Please what ever you do at this stage, don't put in a dime into trading. Hope you make trades only on demo. If you must spend it, Use the money on charity then learn first rather than waste it trading. Better still use it to trade with an experienced profitable trader (few on this forum) or signal service or to pay to learn from one.

I repeat: no real live trading for now! The markets will always be there waiting for you with loads of pips when you are fit and learned
Know News/time; WAIT for Edge Entries, MPLC Normalization, Exits & TP's..
  • #10,352
  • Dec 13, 2018 2:43am Dec 13, 2018 2:43am
Quoting JennyMK
{quote} as my entry was based on bearish engulfing candles,
I see this time and time again, and I say it over and over again, if you're going to use candlesticks, understand them properly, read the Steve Nisson Books, otherwise you are not using the signals in the right context, a pinbar is not always a pinbar, it can be a hammer and it can be nothing to note.
  • #10,353
  • Dec 13, 2018 3:36am Dec 13, 2018 3:36am
[quote=JennyMK;11794908]{quote} Hello princefred I do believe that you are right, as my entry was based on bearish engulfing candles, it pretty much reversed up as soon as I entered the trade.

JMK

Candlestick only part of the equation..you must identify the location when BeEngulfing appear (support/resistance) plus when its appear (market timing).Will create higher probability of success...

Fit
Close Trade At Profit
  • #10,354
  • Edited 4:21am Dec 13, 2018 3:40am | Edited 4:21am
Quoting Bushy
{quote} I see this time and time again, and I say it over and over again, if you're going to use candlesticks, understand them properly, read the Steve Nisson Books, otherwise you are not using the signals in the right context, a pinbar is not always a pinbar, it can be a hammer and it can be nothing to note.
And that "right context" may be more subjective than objective, not empirical enough. So two candles-stick masters/students can easily read/derive two different meanings (long/short maybe based on the latent individual bias of each) from the same charts especially if they are on different time zones. Problem compounded when they look at multi-timeframe.
Whose is best? How is that judged?

We can even conduct that experiment here right away - Three candle stick masters, 1 chart, MTF chart, different broker start = chaos, unnecessary?
Know News/time; WAIT for Edge Entries, MPLC Normalization, Exits & TP's..
  • #10,355
  • Dec 13, 2018 4:18am Dec 13, 2018 4:18am
EU update
Attached Image
  • #10,356
  • Dec 13, 2018 4:37am Dec 13, 2018 4:37am
Quoting princefred
{quote} And that "right context" may be more subjective than objective, not empirical enough. So two candles-stick masters/students can easily read/derive two different meanings (long/short maybe based on the latent individual bias of each) from the same charts especially if they are on different time zones. Problem compounded when they look at multi-timeframe. Whose is best? How is that judged? We can even conduct that experiment here right away - Three candle stick masters, 1 chart, MTF chart, different broker start = chaos, unnecessary?
Very unlikely, you'll find 95% of the time, they will agree, candlesticks are very definitive.
  • #10,357
  • Dec 13, 2018 4:55am Dec 13, 2018 4:55am
Wow, those longs were quickly taken...
Attached Image
  • #10,358
  • Edited 5:20am Dec 13, 2018 4:59am | Edited 5:20am
Quoting Bushy
{quote} Very unlikely, you'll find 95% of the time, they will agree, candlesticks are very definitive.
What they define, is it not dependent on what author the candle stick read/learned from? Another is how they conflict over MTF?

Just saying, if they are that powerful, higher proportion of traders will be profitable as 97% of traders get candlestick reading shoved down their throats early on and go searching for/playing by them all their fx life. More like SM's addictive, distracting, make believe tools. What ever many know, apply yet remain part of 95% losers can't be much of an edge.
Know News/time; WAIT for Edge Entries, MPLC Normalization, Exits & TP's..
  • #10,359
  • Dec 13, 2018 6:19am Dec 13, 2018 6:19am
Quoting JGalt
Wow, those longs were quickly taken... {image}
These moves are far too obvious to be anything other than stop loss runs wouldn't you say? The way the SM is moving the market at those levels it has to be smashing through the stops there for sure, there are too many coincidences.
  • #10,360
  • Dec 13, 2018 7:03am Dec 13, 2018 7:03am
Quoting JennyMK
{quote} These moves are far too obvious to be anything other than stop loss runs wouldn't you say? The way the SM is moving the market at those levels it has to be smashing through the stops there for sure, there are too many coincidences.
It's an illusion. Forex retail market is very tiny, just about 5% of the daily trading turnover. It's negligible for SM. That means they speculate between themselves and actually most Forex hedge funds lose money in the long term.
Do your research before you invest years of your life, preferably not in Forex Factory.
Don't give up on your dreams. Keep sleeping.
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