Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread | Page 643 | Forex Factory

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  • #12,841
  • Dec 4, 2018 2:31pm Dec 4, 2018 2:31pm
Quoting squawk
My Thoughts on NZD/CAD. Im am looking for 92 - 93 to hold. At 95 we would be back to the same value when the 2yr bond spread between the Kiwi and the Cad was 1.5 negative CAD. The spread is now positive .5 to the CAD. We have a complete washout in Crude but my thoughts are Crude is capped into 45 on the down for now. So will be interesting to see how this plays out. But range break of swing is needed. If we get a move to 95 on the NC the velocity of that move will be = to velocity of move when NZ was raising rates to 3 and the 2yr spread was moving...
NC updates charts are close but lots of news for CAD coming. So need big stops in place above range if here. These levels are very valid as well with confluence in the NU chart zone. N and C opening spread against the US dollar is coming in at a wide 300.

However from ex Kiwi can extend far beyond value without reasoning when the Kiwi is getting pushed for cross rate points.
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  • #12,842
  • Dec 4, 2018 10:42pm Dec 4, 2018 10:42pm
Be surprised if the Kiwi doesn't follow the Aussie down from here. Especially with the cross rate where it is.
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  • #12,843
  • Edited 11:25pm Dec 4, 2018 10:58pm | Edited 11:25pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} First interesting bid on Crude. {image} {image}
Crude thoughts. The close of the spread up at 50.8 gives perfect Cypher to 78 retrace.
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  • #12,844
  • Dec 5, 2018 2:47pm Dec 5, 2018 2:47pm
This is a theoretical reference point of price value between New Zealand and Canada for my own purpose as well as anyone who is interested.

NC pricing points of interest history. Show why this pair is best traded at price points and not fundamentals. We have had a 3% move on interest rates to the positive of Canada when pricing was at 95 and over a 3 year period, we have seen low point of oil pricing at 94 over the last 2 years and finally we have seen the benefit of a US booming economy for Canada and a decelerating economy for China over last 2 years.

Dairy Price which actually makes up more of the New Zealand economy than Crude for Canada has been falling throughout 2018 except last month.

I would argue from a purely fundamental point of view that NC should be at or below 83 cents and NU low 60 cents to. That is not including the turn around of Canada's economy since the Crude Dump and the peak and turn in New Zealand economy.

Because the Kiwi produces quarterly and a smaller amount of data points then the last 2 data points, employments and inflation figures effects hold for an extended period.

Personally I believe there is a 50 - 50 that the next move may actually be down for both NZ and AUS interest rates. I cannot see NZ leading AUS in any rate increase at these cross rate prices.

Next few days CAD Employment data, Trade Balance and Poloz statement. So more move up is possible.

This of course in my trade analysis and thoughts and should not be taken as any recommendation just information.
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  • #12,845
  • Edited 3:18pm Dec 5, 2018 2:57pm | Edited 3:18pm
UC thoughts have always been capped resistance at around 1.36. 2 year yields have taken hit but seem capped between 2 and 1.8 capped for now.
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  • #12,846
  • Dec 5, 2018 3:30pm Dec 5, 2018 3:30pm
Quoting squawk
Be surprised if the Kiwi doesn't follow the Aussie down from here. Especially with the cross rate where it is. {image}
NU hits the GAP.
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  • #12,847
  • Dec 5, 2018 9:30pm Dec 5, 2018 9:30pm
Kiwi seems to be rolling over chasing the AUD now. I think the NJ holds a great trade down from here if we Yen strengthens and the Index keeps cracking.

First trade was wash H&S setup but extended BAT into level is currently playing. Looking to lock in some further down but I think a squeeze into 60 is possible with Yen strength.
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  • #12,848
  • Edited 10:20pm Dec 5, 2018 10:06pm | Edited 10:20pm
Quoting squawk
Yuan doesn't want to break that 7, reference rate around 6.9550. You would think? the outcome this week from the G20 re any Tariff deal will be a big market mover on a lot of markets. {image} {image}
Re entry levels above. Could be great RR trade. 6.9550 is there but may be bullish enough to catch 6.25 6.930 area. Feel like there is a mandate to weaken the Yuan now.
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  • #12,849
  • Edited 11:14pm Dec 5, 2018 10:36pm | Edited 11:14pm
Just some thought. S&P is looking wrong from a bullish price action view. Could still be a buy here but no bids coming in through Asia. if it breaks that swing then there could be liquidity problems. Interesting to see how its dealt in US.

CME Statement from yesterday below which was obviously caused by lack of liquidity.

CME experienced multiple Velocity Logic events from the open in Equity futures today. It caused several 10 second pauses where limit orders were accepted but market/IOC orders were rejected causing multiple algo slices to get rejected. The pauses allow participants to enter the market preventing even harder moves.

Just an exert from 1987 Event a few days prior.

Things did not calm down much on Thursday, but the S&P 500 did not decline meaningfully. Then Friday came. When nothing had come from Washington that indicated they would hold off on the committee's bill, selling accelerated. Many of the takeover stocks again fell sharply on Friday, and there were few, if any, bids in them. Liquidity was diminishing, so risk arbitrage firms could not meet their margin calls by only selling the takeover stocks. Therefore, these firms had to sell what they could sell.

Then came Monday.
Overseas markets were in a panic, as they saw what happened on Friday. By the time U.S. investors went to work on Monday, global markets were in very bad shape. Liquidity continued to wither, and players in the risk arbitrage space had to continue selling "what they could." The problem is that when mutual fund redemptions hit the markets in a major way, they cause the same kind of "forced" selling. Two sources of forced selling hit the market, but this new one, mutual fund redemptions, was much larger in terms of dollar amount.
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  • #12,850
  • Dec 5, 2018 11:19pm Dec 5, 2018 11:19pm
Going to time out of Scott's thread for a while to many posts from me...

Have a great Festive season all.
  • #12,851
  • Dec 6, 2018 8:29am Dec 6, 2018 8:29am
Quoting squawk
Going to time out of Scott's thread for a while to many posts from me... Have a great Festive season all.
but the posts have quality.
are always welcome..
  • #12,852
  • Edited 2:20pm Dec 7, 2018 1:49pm | Edited 2:20pm
NC Rollover seems most likely with CAD numbers. Eyes on targets whilst Kiwi tries to shake everyone of shorts. I can see short term bids broken at 91 to 92 area but long term bid area still holds and possible retest above possible into 91.7 - 92 area next week.
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  • #12,853
  • Dec 7, 2018 1:52pm Dec 7, 2018 1:52pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Crude thoughts. The close of the spread up at 50.8 gives perfect Cypher to 78 retrace. {image} {image}
Crude looking very similar to Gold bottom and Gold has been leading Ind for Crude. Looking to see if we can maintaining 50 as bottom.
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  • #12,854
  • Dec 7, 2018 1:56pm Dec 7, 2018 1:56pm
Gold holding long term here. breaks and holds important level.

Price looks like start of 3rd impulse leg, will see.
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  • #12,855
  • Dec 7, 2018 1:58pm Dec 7, 2018 1:58pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} but the posts have quality. are always welcome..
  • #12,856
  • Dec 10, 2018 12:45am Dec 10, 2018 12:45am
Quoting squawk
NC Rollover seems most likely with CAD numbers. Eyes on targets whilst Kiwi tries to shake everyone of shorts. I can see short term bids broken at 91 to 92 area but long term bid area still holds and possible retest above possible into 91.7 - 92 area next week. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Eyes on for this trade. Daily range is almost complete prior to Euro open on a Monday.
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  • #12,857
  • Dec 10, 2018 5:24pm Dec 10, 2018 5:24pm
Great work here squawk and well done for keeping the fire burning. I'm just settling into an old farm in Dartmoor having moved back home after 7 years in Spain. It's lovely to be back and away from it all. Will start contributing again here shortly once I've got a bit more of a grip here in Devon. All the best Ben
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #12,858
  • Dec 10, 2018 5:45pm Dec 10, 2018 5:45pm
Quoting Lalu
{quote} Like this too {image}
Deutsche Bank sounded the alarm today (my own personal one). There is also a trend line there for those who like that sort of thing.

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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #12,859
  • Dec 10, 2018 9:03pm Dec 10, 2018 9:03pm
Quoting Lalu
Great work here squawk and well done for keeping the fire burning. I'm just settling into an old farm in Dartmoor having moved back home after 7 years in Spain. It's lovely to be back and away from it all. Will start contributing again here shortly once I've got a bit more of a grip here in Devon. All the best Ben
Hi Ben, didn't know you were heading home. Thats a nice part of England and I sure you will be happy to be out of the EU and back home. Mostly signing of here until after Holidays but look forward to chatting next year. All the best Amigo with the farm setup and have a great festive season.
  • #12,860
  • Dec 10, 2018 9:07pm Dec 10, 2018 9:07pm
Quoting Lalu
{quote} Deutsche Bank sounded the alarm today (my own personal one). There is also a trend line there for those who like that sort of thing. {image}
Ive been in since 10 so not a great trade here for me so far. I think at the end of the day its all going to end up Commerz and Deutche bank with a chunk of government Money.
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