AUDUSD Is it time to short this pair ? {image} D1 {image} MN1 {image} Economic News {image} Masterrmind..............
- #2,947
- Dec 6, 2018 8:21pm Dec 6, 2018 8:21pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} My compliments Masterrmind. Are you aware that AudUsd was ready for descent? I struggle to understand how your system works and your grid 1.4 Thank you
The fundamental side requires an analysis (refer to Post 1 for further details).
The technical side requires an analysis (refer to Post 1 for further details).
Confluence to as high a level as possible is then sought that potentially allows for a higher probability trade.
Full confluence is rarely achieved and for the short fall in confidence a generous stop loss is applied ranging between 1 to 2 octive gaps.
Risk is accounted for as much as possible from the traders side understanding that there is risk involved in FX retail trading that goes beyond the control of the trader and often beyond the broker as well (Black swan events, 'fat finger' errors, flash crashes etc).
The Grid is used partially as confluence (extreme zones) and for trade execution price levels for the initial entry and also any pending orders (Buy Stop | Buy Limit | Sell Stop | Sell Limit or fancier orders such BuyStop Limit and SellStop Limit).
Keep in tune with the flow of news as much as possible and monitor the PA at key levels (handles, S&R zones, harmonic projections/completions).
Apply some discretion (if you wish) to close trades out earlier than target levels or allow others to run on to TP or SL.
After reading Post 1 several times please feel free to ask as many questions as you wish, I'm always happy to answer any question you may have.
Note: Only v1.03 is available (v1.04 in test mode) and this dash is simply an early alerter to potential setups, full analysis is still required !
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,948
- Dec 6, 2018 8:42pm Dec 6, 2018 8:42pm
Hi MasterMind,
How far away from the actual price, in Pips do you place a Buy/Sell Stop? 10 pips away? 20? or more?
Thank you Jeff .........................
How far away from the actual price, in Pips do you place a Buy/Sell Stop? 10 pips away? 20? or more?
Thank you Jeff .........................
Happily Married to MY College Sweet Heart!
- #2,949
- Dec 6, 2018 8:50pm Dec 6, 2018 8:50pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
Can NZDUSD be ready for descent according to system?
A Quad short setup was triggered yesterday so a valid short could have been had during yesterdays D1 bar if the other analysis supported a short bias on the pair.
Now it is too late to make a valid Quad short entry.
Nevertheless, price is currently trading within the Upper Octive Zone so a short setup could be analyzed.
Be sure to consider all factors before entering the trade, afterall today is not a 'normal' trading day, is it ?
Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,950
- Dec 6, 2018 8:55pm Dec 6, 2018 8:55pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
Hi MasterMind, How far away from the actual price, in Pips do you place a Buy/Sell Stop? 10 pips away? 20? or more? Thank you Jeff .........................
No real distance is applied.
Note that since I trade off the price levels often I might enter at market but on the AUDUSD entry I wanted to use pending orders both for the short side since this was my bias and I applied the pending orders at the octive price level above and the octive price level below.
I do not apply any consideration for distance away from current price, it purely depends on how far price happens to be away from the Octive price level at the time.
Hope that helps.
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,951
- Dec 6, 2018 9:55pm Dec 6, 2018 9:55pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} NZDUSD [D1 chart] A Quad short setup was triggered yesterday so a valid short could have been had during yesterdays D1 bar if the other analysis supported a short bias on the pair. Now it is too late to make a valid Quad short entry. Nevertheless, price is currently trading within the Upper Octive Zone so a short setup could be analyzed. Be sure to consider all factors before entering the trade, afterall today is not a 'normal' trading day, is it ? Masterrmind..............
I strongly urge you to ensure that D1, W1 and MN1 price bar data is 'Refreshed' for all symbols of interest.
The Quad pattern only requires the previous 4 D1 bars (not including the current D1 bar) are refreshed.
The Dashboard requires all 3 TFs are 'Refreshed'.
Note that the presence of a Doji (Open price very close to Close price) can make a considerable difference to the flow of Quad patterns.
Some broker data feeds might show the difference between the Open price and the Close price as 0, a few pips above or a few pips below resulting in a Doji bar as red, green or neutral.
Ofcourse we know that a pure Doji is where Open price == Close price and indecision is being shown as to the direction of the market.
I'm actually referring to other situations where Open and Close prices are within a few pips resulting in 'valid' and non-valid Quad patterns between different brokers.
Just to make matters a little more interesting I have conflicting patterns on NZDUSD on the same broker comparing demo versus real data feeds.
I recommend using the patterns generated from the data feed of the account you plan to use to make your trades.
So from that point of view the Dashboard (if being used) must be applied to the platform you plan to trade from (demo or real).
I always recommend that you go with the flow of your brokers data feed and make judgment calls in situations that require it.
This is why I never use a signal generated from the Dashboard or straight off the chart as confirmation of an entry into the market.
A trader must build a valid confluent case for entry that applies sound risk management !
Any questions please ask and if it means that some additional guidelines need to be posted then I'll attend to that if necessary.
ps. Doji patterns that occur within the 4 previous D1 bars is the interest here not elsewhere on the chart !
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,952
- Dec 7, 2018 2:18am Dec 7, 2018 2:18am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} AUDUSD [D1; Update] Closed out 2 shorts in profit. +1.5% and +1.9% {image} 3rd order has also triggered off the 6/8 level to the downside. Chart structure to the left indicates previous bullish interest at the 72 handle so my intention is to possibly close it out once in profit. Trade did go positive earlier but I was not at the charts to firstly consider the PA and then to effect a closure if indeed one was necessary at the time. Risk is an aggressive bounce to the upside off the 72 handle which could easily erase the profit of both previous...
TP extended back out again in case of a sudden drop.
Likely that as price drops below entry level (if it does) that stop will also be tightened and an M5 TF used to follow PA.
Objective is to close out of the trade with some profit which will add to the gain of the 2 previous winners.
Due to the added risk later today I have no intention of allowing the trade to remain in the market for too much longer.
Which means that I will also consider closing out the trade for a small loss if deemed necessary.
ps. Also active is a long GU (0.01) and a long UJ (0.03) both of which are considerably lower volume sizes compared to the AU (0.08) short.
Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,953
- Dec 7, 2018 2:56am Dec 7, 2018 2:56am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} AU TP extended back out again in case of a sudden drop. {image} Likely that as price drops below entry level (if it does) that stop will also be tightened and an M5 TF used to follow PA. Objective is to close out of the trade with some profit which will add to the gain of the 2 previous winners. Due to the added risk later today I have no intention of allowing the trade to remain in the market for too much longer. Which means that I will also consider closing out the trade for a small loss if deemed necessary. ps. Also active is a long GU...
How far does the AU pair move on average during NFP and is it likely that the Target will get hit based on range?
Who thinks I should close out a minimum 30 minutes prior to NFP no matter the current progress of the trade ?
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,954
- Dec 7, 2018 7:18am Dec 7, 2018 7:18am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} AU TP extended back out again in case of a sudden drop. {image} Likely that as price drops below entry level (if it does) that stop will also be tightened and an M5 TF used to follow PA. Objective is to close out of the trade with some profit which will add to the gain of the 2 previous winners. Due to the added risk later today I have no intention of allowing the trade to remain in the market for too much longer. Which means that I will also consider closing out the trade for a small loss if deemed necessary. ps. Also active is a long GU...
Masterrmind..........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,955
- Dec 7, 2018 6:09pm Dec 7, 2018 6:09pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
AUDUSD [Cycle now completed]
H1 TF shown to highlight entries and exits.
Masterrmind.............
H1 TF shown to highlight entries and exits.
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,956
- Dec 7, 2018 11:01pm Dec 7, 2018 11:01pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
Also an additional question for Masterrmind: What do you think of pivots, are they useful in trading for additional confluence? I am thinking of the monthly pivots not the ones from lower timeframes. If pivtos would be good, which ones: Fibonacci, Camarilla, Woodie? In the charts above I included Fibonacci. *I've mentioned it since I think these are not considered indicators. If they're not useful I'll remove it. Thank you.
Pivots have been around for a very long time with several versions having been developed but they are all fairly similar just a variation in the calculations differs and the number of Pivot lines and some have non-equal line spacings.
Pivots are forward projections of levels in time based on calculations of an histrorical range for eg previous MN1, previous W1, previous D1, previous H4, previous H1 and any other TF you choose to use.
Therefore, a pivot is NOT a lagging indicator because the lines have already been calculated and remain fixed until the next cycle in which case new calculations are performed to project the next set of pivot lines.
Once the Pivot formulas are coded and produce lines on a chart then they are indeed an indicator.
They can be used to make entries, apply SL and target zones with HTFs likely producing the 'better' results.
What makes absolutely no sense at all is where traders use Pivot points alongside a 'lagging' indicator such as MAs, MACD, Stoch, RSI, WPR or TDI.
Never ever mix a non-lagging indicator with a lagging indicator !
This is the clear work of a non-professional type trader.
The only time I would is to check say a 50/100 or 200 MA on a H4 or D1 chart just to 'see' what other traders 'might' be looking at so I'm aware of what it is that the 'herd' is considering to trade since plenty of traders use these lagging indicators !
Apparently almost 95% of traders fail ... I wonder why ?
Never use lagging indicators to make trading decisions and definitely NOT as a trigger to enter a trade.
Be very aware of what they are meant to do and what their limitations are (which are many by the way).
Applying monthly pivots is perfectly ok if you are seeking additional confluence in a trade setup but be sure to consider all factors within Post 1.
Pivot type is up to your own choice, best option here is to test a few out on your D1 only charts and see which one you are more comfortable using.
Fibonacci is highly useful and recommended by me in any TF.
I only use 38.2, 50, 61.8, 78.6, 88.6, 100, 127.2 and 161.8 for the Fibonacci ratios.
Harmonics such as ABCD, AB=CD and the others as per Post 1 are very important and highly useful.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Testing indicators out is part of the learning process but as you develop you will find that the less clutter on your charts the better !
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Only exception to the above is an informative dashboard which provides timely access to 'real' data which you then will analyze further.
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,957
- Dec 8, 2018 12:33am Dec 8, 2018 12:33am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
I know it's "exotics" but I thought just to put it on table for analysis: Quad ( almost formed as the last bar will close in about an hour ) formed on USD-SGD Daily: 1) Location in the extreme MML showed rejection 2) Quad almost formed 3) AB=CD pattern completed 4) S2 monthly pivot also added as support in the area 5) Double bottom marked with the red line Weekly: 1) A kind of a range but it's unfortunately formed in the extreme MML zone Monthly: 1) It has 4/8 as support as it's sitting right on it The trade ideea would be: BUY @ 1.3690, for stop...
As long as the spread is 'reasonable' you can certainly trade the SGD related pairs.
D1 chart shows a very nice 1 to 1 harmonic having a 61.8 pullback of the AB leg and then completing right at support (with some overflow).
Then a Quad Long certainly added to the confluence of potentially trading this pair up the chart.
A positive data flow for the USD currency and you have a free ticket to profit !
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Comments:
You have covered the technical analysis quite well but ofcourse more fundamentals and market sentiment could be added to your commentary.
Consider the following:
a) previous weeks economic data;
b) this weeks economic data;
c) next weeks economic data and the economists expectations (are they expecting data to be positive, negative or neutral ?);
d) get a general feel for the flow of data, is it favorable for the USD or not, consider any SGD news;
e) consider political factors;
f) consider general impact of the 'trade war' on SGD currency (who are the major SGD trading partners, how will they be affected +ve/-ve/ not!);
g) form your general BIAS (UP, DOWN or neutral).
The reward to risk ratio of your setup is unfavorable and this is not what you want.
I notice that you are not using the Octive price levels for entries (not necessary for market entry), stops and targets. Why not ?
The Octive Price Levels (OPL's :: New terminology coming to Post 1 soon) should be used from a D1 TF :: 64 bars.
The idea of using these levels is to 'force' an easier trade setup because you know very quickly that if the SL is 2 octives then target must be at least 2 octives from the entry price and these levels are very easy to see on the chart.
Observe the Monthly octives but do not allow them to rule your entry setup !
My setup for the USDSGD pair if I was trading it would be as follows:
Target @ 1.37939 (Central Pivot, sub 1.38 handle, under major resistance, favorable RR @ >1.5);
Entry @ 1.36900 (this level is fine but could have used the 1.37 handle); and
SL @ 1.36268 (recent low midway b/w base octive levels, not exceeding 2 octive gaps)
The Octive Gap on D1 is 30.5 pips so your max SL cannot exceed 61 pips (adding a few pips to clear recent lows is ok but don't be excessive).
You have your SL way down at 1.35800 ! Why ?
Keep the setup 'textbook' style and as close to Post 1 guidelines as possible.
This will ensure simplicity in the setup of the trade(s) after all necessary analysis has been completed and you have a bias for the symbol.
Please take my commentary as only intending to improve you as a trader by gradually elliminating any short comings !
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,959
- Dec 8, 2018 12:52am Dec 8, 2018 12:52am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} Thank you for the input. Only the pivots on the monthly charts I was considering as they showed price bouncing around it on several occasions while browsing the charts. Other indicators I'm not even considering as it's how you mentioned they keep us from seeing the price movements and we should stick to technical and fundamental.
We all can improve afterall, not one of us is perfect and we have, do and will make mistakes, hopefully we make less of the ones that cause us the most pain.
Good trading,
Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades