{quote} Makes sense, Look left {image}
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,921
- Dec 3, 2018 8:39am Dec 3, 2018 8:39am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
Masterrmind............
- #2,922
- Edited 11:18pm Dec 3, 2018 2:40pm | Edited 11:18pm
- Joined Sep 2018 | Status: Complete acceptance of probability | 306 Posts
GBP-JPY - BUY @ 144.66 , SL: 143.80, TP: 145.60
UPDATE: SL adjusted to 142.700 to give space before the news.
Reasons:
Daily:
1) Price stopped nicely at 78.6% Fib area
2) Price stopped on the trendline that is beginning to form
3) 1/8 MML acted as support.
4) News tomorrow: BOE Gov Carney Speaks. His purpose should be to provide calming statements and since he has an official position he can't be bearish on his own currency in a panicked market by the Brexit. So I presume he'll be hawkish for GBP as he has attempted in previous speeches to prepare markets for the worst.
"A bigger slump than the one that followed the financial crisis. A 25% fall in the value of the pound. An annual inflation rate of 6.6%. Official borrowing costs up to 5.5%. Our job, Mark Carney said, is not to hope for the best but to prepare for the worst."
5) GBPJPY is very volatile and the panic sell made on 14th Nov stopped around the area we're in now. After all the panic selling further downside pressure was exercised but stopped around the same area. This, in my newbie opinion, means it's a well-guarded area and the further price bars show just buying in dips to prepare for a large upper movement.
Weekly:
1) There was a downside channel but it got broken
2) A new trendline is visible in weekly as well
3) Fib 50.0% area is the place where price is now gravitating
Monthly:
1) Not much to say, just that price is sitting below the 4/8 and it should mean that passing above 150.00 will be hard, but that is well outside my grasp for a take profit area
Not sure if all this will happen but I placed the order with the smallest lot size possible and will wait for the outcome. One thing I am not sure about: the stop-loss might get taken out before the price rise due to the extreme volatility, but my hope is that it's under a well-guarded area.
*Interesting: https://assets.publishing.service.go...alysis__1_.pdf
UPDATE: SL adjusted to 142.700 to give space before the news.
Reasons:
Daily:
1) Price stopped nicely at 78.6% Fib area
2) Price stopped on the trendline that is beginning to form
3) 1/8 MML acted as support.
4) News tomorrow: BOE Gov Carney Speaks. His purpose should be to provide calming statements and since he has an official position he can't be bearish on his own currency in a panicked market by the Brexit. So I presume he'll be hawkish for GBP as he has attempted in previous speeches to prepare markets for the worst.
"A bigger slump than the one that followed the financial crisis. A 25% fall in the value of the pound. An annual inflation rate of 6.6%. Official borrowing costs up to 5.5%. Our job, Mark Carney said, is not to hope for the best but to prepare for the worst."
5) GBPJPY is very volatile and the panic sell made on 14th Nov stopped around the area we're in now. After all the panic selling further downside pressure was exercised but stopped around the same area. This, in my newbie opinion, means it's a well-guarded area and the further price bars show just buying in dips to prepare for a large upper movement.
Weekly:
1) There was a downside channel but it got broken
2) A new trendline is visible in weekly as well
3) Fib 50.0% area is the place where price is now gravitating
Monthly:
1) Not much to say, just that price is sitting below the 4/8 and it should mean that passing above 150.00 will be hard, but that is well outside my grasp for a take profit area
Not sure if all this will happen but I placed the order with the smallest lot size possible and will wait for the outcome. One thing I am not sure about: the stop-loss might get taken out before the price rise due to the extreme volatility, but my hope is that it's under a well-guarded area.
*Interesting: https://assets.publishing.service.go...alysis__1_.pdf
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
- #2,923
- Dec 4, 2018 2:40am Dec 4, 2018 2:40am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
GBP-JPY - BUY @ 144.66 , SL: 143.80, TP: 145.60 UPDATE: SL adjusted to 142.700 to give space before the news. Reasons: Daily: 1) Price stopped nicely at 78.6% Fib area 2) Price stopped on the trendline that is beginning to form 3) 1/8 MML acted as support. 4) News tomorrow: BOE Gov Carney Speaks. His purpose should be to provide calming statements and since he has an official position he can't be bearish on his own currency in a panicked market by the Brexit. So I presume he'll be hawkish for GBP as he has attempted in previous speeches to prepare...
An excellent observation and one of the most important technical zones.
Once price gets back in the zone look for any clues hidden in speeches or news floating around that will give your entry a confluent boost.
It won't always be obvious and the timing might be a bit off but always attempt to draw some useful information.
GJ is called the Dragon for good reason.
Very good post.
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,924
- Dec 4, 2018 3:24am Dec 4, 2018 3:24am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
AUDUSD
Is it time to short this pair ?
D1
MN1
Economic News
Masterrmind..............
Is it time to short this pair ?
D1
MN1
Economic News
Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,925
- Dec 4, 2018 3:54am Dec 4, 2018 3:54am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
AUDUSD Is it time to short this pair ? {image} D1 {image} MN1 {image} Economic News {image} Masterrmind..............
Whats the approach ?
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,926
- Dec 4, 2018 6:15am Dec 4, 2018 6:15am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,092 Posts
{quote} AUDUSD Ranges {image} Whats the approach ? Masterrmind............
1. D1 200 EMA + WK 50 EMA
2. WK/MN Fibonacci pivot overbought levels (Davit's....)
3. Murray Math level
I think it's worth trying as RR is not bad. Personally, I don't want to touch this (and NZD) because USD looks getting weaker for the time being....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,927
- Dec 4, 2018 6:30am Dec 4, 2018 6:30am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} RR looks decent. 1. D1 200 EMA + WK 50 EMA 2. WK/MN Fibonacci pivot overbought levels (Davit's....) 3. Murray Math level I think it's worth trying as RR is not bad. Personally, I don't want to touch this (and NZD) because USD looks getting weaker for the time being....
Not sure I want to play it this way for the last few trading weeks of the year.
Perhaps a few more shorter term setups are worth considering as its unlikely I would be getting 4 to 8 octives on a D1 Grid before year end.
Preservation of the current account equity level is an important consideration since finishing the year on a high is the goal.
Nevertheless, no risk equals no gain so it becomes a matter of how much risk should one apply.
RR is decent.
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,928
- Dec 4, 2018 6:51am Dec 4, 2018 6:51am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
AUDUSD [D1::64]
Masterrmind............
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,929
- Dec 4, 2018 7:00am Dec 4, 2018 7:00am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,092 Posts
AUDUSD [D1::64] {image} Masterrmind............
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,930
- Dec 4, 2018 7:15am Dec 4, 2018 7:15am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} MM aligned with volume study.... sorry for the off-topic.... {image}
You need to either wait for another 60 pip rise in price or go in short at current level and apply a minimum of 100-120 pip stop.
Stops do look good above the 75 handle I must say.
I am considering it but not yet at the stage of letting loose with an aggressive setup.
Uncertainty in strength flow of the USD currency is the reason for caution !
This suggests that if I were to enter short it would have to be at lower initial risk, then ramped up on favorable PA to the downside.
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,931
- Dec 4, 2018 7:36am Dec 4, 2018 7:36am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} AU You need to either wait for another 60 pip rise in price or go in short at current level and apply a minimum of 100-120 pip stop. Stops do look good above the 75 handle I must say. I am considering it but not yet at the stage of letting loose with an aggressive setup. Uncertainty in strength flow of the USD currency is the reason for caution ! This suggests that if I were to enter short it would have to be at lower initial risk, then ramped up on favorable PA to the downside. Masterrmind............
1. US-China Trade talk over W/E sparked gap up;
2. Look for signs of trade talks breaking down which will likely lead to a weaker AUD currency;
3. How this unfolds will have to be analyzed on a daily basis with intraday updates being very important;
4. An interesting week ahead.
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,932
- Dec 4, 2018 8:05am Dec 4, 2018 8:05am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
AUDUSD [D1::64] {image} Masterrmind............
Sell Limit (~0.8% risk) and Sell Stop (~1.5%) applied at small volume to keep risk reasonably low.
Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,934
- Dec 4, 2018 1:02pm Dec 4, 2018 1:02pm
- Joined Sep 2018 | Status: Complete acceptance of probability | 306 Posts
{quote} AUDUSD [D1::64] Sell Limit (~0.8% risk) and Sell Stop (~1.5%) applied at small volume to keep risk reasonably low. {image} Masterrmind...........
Good luck in the trade!
Forex - It's finger lickin' good
- #2,936
- Dec 4, 2018 6:09pm Dec 4, 2018 6:09pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,092 Posts
{quote} If you don't mind could you please tell me or point me in a direction/link to learn on how could forex benefit from the volume as I've read it's decentralized market and it's not a clear way to know the real volume? Or it's something like OBV indicator displayed on the chart? If I'm derailing the thread I'll delete my message. Thank you.
That's a default Volume Profile indicator provided by Tradingview. Yes, volume is an issue in Forex. However, it seems it still work. I am using volume in Futures market by the way.
I found some interesting videos from the following Youtube link. Just have a look his approach. His performance looks somewhat questionable (TP & SL looks not logical) to me but it may give you some ideas at least. Or, you can find tons of other Youtube videos about volume profile. Hope it helps.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,937
- Dec 4, 2018 6:35pm Dec 4, 2018 6:35pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} Looks like a good trade also in the extreme MML zones but what could be the downside is the seemingly USD depreciation and there is still some upside room at least to 0.7450 area. Also what I see is an engulfing monthly but that's a far away timeframe and also needs a retracement. Good luck in the trade! {image}
With stops on the higher priced entry above the 75 handle so the order (when triggered) still has room to breathe.
Will need to watch it though especially heading up towards news this week.
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,938
- Dec 4, 2018 6:40pm Dec 4, 2018 6:40pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} If you don't mind could you please tell me or point me in a direction/link to learn on how could forex benefit from the volume as I've read it's decentralized market and it's not a clear way to know the real volume? Or it's something like OBV indicator displayed on the chart? If I'm derailing the thread I'll delete my message. Thank you.
Some traders use Forex volume data to add to their confluence but I don't recommend it.
Futures volume data is typically more reliable and may be used for additional confluence.
Masterrmind..........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,939
- Dec 4, 2018 9:58pm Dec 4, 2018 9:58pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
AUDUSD [D1; Update]
Sell Stop has triggered.
Deleted the Sell Limit.
Placed additional Sell Stops as per chart.
Targets all align at the Central Pivot @ 0.70801 at this stage but may be adjusted on further developments.
Lets go !
Masterrmind............
Sell Stop has triggered.
Deleted the Sell Limit.
Placed additional Sell Stops as per chart.
Targets all align at the Central Pivot @ 0.70801 at this stage but may be adjusted on further developments.
Lets go !
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,940
- Dec 6, 2018 8:40am Dec 6, 2018 8:40am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
AUDUSD [D1; Update] Sell Stop has triggered. {image} Deleted the Sell Limit. Placed additional Sell Stops as per chart. Targets all align at the Central Pivot @ 0.70801 at this stage but may be adjusted on further developments. Lets go ! Masterrmind............
Closed out 2 shorts in profit.
+1.5% and +1.9%
3rd order has also triggered off the 6/8 level to the downside.
Chart structure to the left indicates previous bullish interest at the 72 handle so my intention is to possibly close it out once in profit.
Trade did go positive earlier but I was not at the charts to firstly consider the PA and then to effect a closure if indeed one was necessary at the time.
Risk is an aggressive bounce to the upside off the 72 handle which could easily erase the profit of both previous winners.
If price does not drop low enough before I retire from the charts for the day then I will let the trade run but will also tighten the TP to close to the daily lows giving the trade a chance to be closed out at current lows.
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades