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The only thread you will ever need: FX Exposed!

  • #10,121
  • Dec 5, 2018 9:49am Dec 5, 2018 9:49am
GU H4:
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  • #10,122
  • Dec 5, 2018 9:49am Dec 5, 2018 9:49am
EJ H4:
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  • #10,123
  • Dec 5, 2018 9:49am Dec 5, 2018 9:49am
AU H4:
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  • #10,124
  • Dec 5, 2018 9:49am Dec 5, 2018 9:49am
USDCAD H4:
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  • #10,125
  • Dec 5, 2018 9:56am Dec 5, 2018 9:56am
"To be in that place where he shorted I do not understand, because the price is in a bullish trend."


As you know, trade the MAIN pairs on the basis of the MK.

However, "derivative pairs" I trade based also on more statistical factors.

Let me elaborate a bit:


For example; NZDUSD and USDCAD are rather negatively correlated; "normally"; if NU goes down; UC goes up............similiar to EU having a somewhat neg. correlation to UJ...............now obviously, correlations are const. CHANGING and dynamic.


In some cases; the causality bias in one MAIN pair tells me enough to predict the moves in respective derivative pairs.
In such as case; I can trade the derivative, knowing that one of the "input pairs" will move a certain way.

However; in the particular case of NC, the MK bias in USDCAD was clearly BULLISH (see all the red bars!) which gives UC upward momentum while NU was generally bearish (however, lower causality bias). Together with the CAD news; that makes such a trade rather "low confidence".

However; in case that NU would have had a stronger MK bias; a bearish one (so i.e. DM longies there); I would have had the "input pair" on my side. In such a case, the trade would have been "medium confidence" rather than "low confidence".

THEREFORE (POSITION SIZING!); I would have risked more on such a scenario.


In order to demonstrate what I mean;

I may post here such trades.

Maybe that clarifies.

I will also define "low", "med.", "high conf." setup. But that distinction should be enough; before there is unnecessary complexity.

FF
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  • #10,126
  • Dec 5, 2018 9:58am Dec 5, 2018 9:58am
Note:

My "derivative pair" trades tend to have a somewhat lower win-loss overall, but a good risk-return ratio and a higher trade frequency.

Stay safe.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #10,127
  • Dec 5, 2018 9:59am Dec 5, 2018 9:59am
Quoting FractalFreak
"To prevent the shit storm that will last for lots of pages here and on the scammers thread because of this failed call and the other one on NU, maybe you should make more calls in the next days in the same way (entry, ST, TP), so that everyone can see your 90% hit rate. What do you think?" Maybe I will, if I have time. However; NOTHING will prevent the "scammer trolls" from attacking. They ALWAYS IGNORE all correct predictions; and simply post any incorrect predictions as much as they can. But that is their issue, not mine. ;-) FF
How much more time does it take to make a screen shot of a blank chart instead of the one with your DM Positions on it, which you post a lot everyday anyway?
  • #10,128
  • Dec 5, 2018 10:00am Dec 5, 2018 10:00am
Quoting FractalFreak
"He was right. But the entire market plotted against him. " No......on that trade I was wrong: USDCAD was, as stated BULLISH because of all the DM shorties......that was why I bought UC.................AU was bearish because of all the DM longies......that was why i was short AU.....................................NZDCAD was based on the possibility that NZD would drop more than USDCAD would go up........which it did not..........that is fine........................... Stay safe. FF

"Trade what you SEE, not what you THINK!"................

As written on your profile page....................
  • #10,129
  • Dec 5, 2018 10:01am Dec 5, 2018 10:01am
"
"Trade what you SEE, not what you THINK!"................
As written on your profile page................."



Yes.

FF
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  • #10,130
  • Dec 5, 2018 10:01am Dec 5, 2018 10:01am
Note:

My "derivative pair" trading normally has "cheap entries" only.

Stay safe.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #10,131
  • Dec 5, 2018 10:02am Dec 5, 2018 10:02am
"How much more time does it take to make a screen shot of a blank chart instead of the one with your DM Positions on it,"


I may do that for the "derivative pair" trading.

Stay safe.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #10,132
  • Dec 5, 2018 10:02am Dec 5, 2018 10:02am
Quoting FractalFreak
"To be in that place where he shorted I do not understand, because the price is in a bullish trend." As you know, trade the MAIN pairs on the basis of the MK. However, "derivative pairs" I trade based also on more statistical factors. Let me elaborate a bit: For example; NZDUSD and USDCAD are rather negatively correlated; "normally"; if NU goes down; UC goes up............similiar to EU having a somehwat neg. correlation to UJ...............now obviously, correlations are const. CHANGING and dynamic. In some cases; the causality bias in one MAIN...
But the instrument isnt NZDCAD?
NC and UC are positive correlation.
POW!
  • #10,133
  • Dec 5, 2018 10:02am Dec 5, 2018 10:02am
Quoting fxprimate
{quote} I'm just curious to know the reason for the entry. If it is to try to catch tops, would be further up on the green line. To be in that place where in shorted I do not understand, because the price is in a bullish trend. {image}
He did the same thing with that NZDUSD trade called for a short right before the NZD interest rate news. He just looks at S/D areas on the daily chart and call for a rebounce on those areas with happens most of the time. When the price rebounces well, he claims success. When it breaks through the S/D area, he can claim he already closed the trade with a few pips profit. With no TP or SL specified, he can trick and impress newbies that way.
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Don't give up on your dreams. Keep sleeping.
  • #10,134
  • Dec 5, 2018 10:04am Dec 5, 2018 10:04am
Maybe that teaches the COMMUNITY also a bit more with regard to HOW one can trade without live MK.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #10,135
  • Dec 5, 2018 10:07am Dec 5, 2018 10:07am
"He did the same thing with that NZDUSD trade called for a short right before the NZD interest rate news."


Artcool;

that is BS and you know it.

The NU trade was CAUSALITY driven and worked well. Do you want me to post it AGAIN??


UNDERSTAND:

The first lot in NU was a NEWS TRADE; however; the DM was LONG!

So that would have been the EQUIVALENT of the DM being LONG in the USDCAD example today; BUT the NEWS BEING too BULLISH (plausibility principle!).

Do you get that?


EITHER; the MK bias is IN or AGAINST the direction of the news RESULTS!

Watch the vids again.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #10,136
  • Dec 5, 2018 10:08am Dec 5, 2018 10:08am
"He just looks at S/D areas on the daily chart and call for a rebounce on those areas with happens most of the time."


Not at all!


Pls read the ENTIRE thread AGAIN!

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #10,137
  • Dec 5, 2018 10:10am Dec 5, 2018 10:10am
Despite the name calling (or including), I enjoyed the discussion between Frac & Bushy.
Interesting, it's good to see responses to questions posed.
  • #10,138
  • Dec 5, 2018 10:12am Dec 5, 2018 10:12am
The TROLLS


MISREPRESENT

facts by simply

IGNORING ALL MY CORRECT CALLS


and

re-posting any incorrect ones!!!!!!!


Do you think one can FOOL the COMMUNITY in such a CHEAP MANNER?

Come on!

FF
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  • #10,139
  • Dec 5, 2018 10:12am Dec 5, 2018 10:12am
"Despite the name calling (or including), I enjoyed the discussion between Frac & Bushy.
Interesting, it's good to see responses to questions posed."


Note that HE has called me ALL KINDS OF NAMES while I have sticked to a certain conduct;
albeit being harsh.

Stay safe.
FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #10,140
  • Dec 5, 2018 10:13am Dec 5, 2018 10:13am
EU M15:
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