I took profits - I still think this pattern has room to move up, but I don't want to hold any large positions until after g20, opec, and fed rate hike meetings.
Im probably missing out on some more profits, but Im also not losing anything.
My impression from what I am seeing coming down from the news wire after G20 is that oil production is not going to be cut - and oil producing nations are doing their best to kiss Trump's a** for lack of a better term.
Putin in mid-November, prior to the meeting: "the expenditure side of our budget is based on $40 per barrel..."
If oil continues to drop next week, then expect USDCAD to rise. I will look to see how the Asian session reacts to the news during G20 when the markets open this coming week. If it doesn't gap up right away, I would not be surprised if it bounces up from the supporting trend-line.
after a while back to usdcad again...i sold it and will watch its strenght...no target yet but if oil can retrace till 63s i will keep my short here...my stop loss is above 1.34
To all USD/CAD traders.
Thursday of this week HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE a market moving day due to the OPEC Meeting.
OPEC Countries are NOT HAPPY with Saudi Arabia for "creating this mess" , meaning that the Saudi's THOUGHT that they could punish the rest of the WORLD MARKET by creating artificially LOW PRICES due to a massive oversupply to the World Markets , and they failed miserably in their attempt to essentially put many Countries "out of the oil business altogether".
In my opinion , look for the Saudi's to make an unprecedented massive cut to production which will truly rattle the World Markets. However , I am not sure what the Russsian reaction will be. Russia CAN benefit immensely IF it does NOT rush in to fill the void. IF this scenario plays out , I actually think it will be a very short lived benefit for Canada since on Wednesday of this week , look for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates 25 basis points. At this time , Canada CANNOT AFFORD to have a high value dollar. Additionally , the US cannot afford a higher dollar AND a trade war with China , Mexico , and Canada.
This SHOULD BE a very interesting week.
Currently , I have started to build SMALL LONG POSITIONS from 1.3170 with TAKE PROFIT at the 1.3220 mark. This is contrary to oil ready to SPIKE SIGNIFICANTLY based on DAILY AND WEEKLY CHARTS showing severe oversold conditions.
Mental stop losses are a must !!!!!
Regards ,
GE
