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  • #12,821
  • Nov 26, 2018 12:51pm Nov 26, 2018 12:51pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Shorts continue on Euro breakdown still swing lower. 110 target all out or Dollar hits 1.00 on the index which ever comes sooner. Have buy limits starting in at 110 and 107. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Again back at the last push up level for the Euro. Im thinking will break but moved to BE.
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  • #12,822
  • Nov 26, 2018 3:24pm Nov 26, 2018 3:24pm
Some eyes on Iron Ore today. Yesterday was limit down and largest drop since spot pricing began.
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  • #12,823
  • Nov 28, 2018 5:04am Nov 28, 2018 5:04am
Quoting heispark
EU looks tempting with Fib confluence.... but it really may go down further....... Currently at H&S neck line.... {image}{image} I guess it will continue go down after a shallow bounce....
Another idea of EU....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #12,824
  • Nov 28, 2018 6:10am Nov 28, 2018 6:10am
IF breaks 1.121x maybe target 1.105x... I am for 1.151x with stop at 1214.
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  • #12,825
  • Edited 2:42pm Nov 29, 2018 1:32pm | Edited 2:42pm
Scenario I am waiting for on the Index. Just speculating but thinking a mixed message outcome from the weekend. If all positive then you think a run at top could be possible.
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  • #12,826
  • Nov 29, 2018 1:37pm Nov 29, 2018 1:37pm
Quoting squawk
Eyes on Crude next week. Area matches with 61% Retrace. Index looking decisive, bearish though. Lets see what happens after holiday period next week as has not filled sell off at 2850 level but might be bearish enough to leave behind. {image} {image} {image}
For me Crude is close.
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  • #12,827
  • Nov 29, 2018 1:39pm Nov 29, 2018 1:39pm
Shorter Yields have disagreed with the Kiwi Strength in the parabolic move.
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  • #12,828
  • Nov 30, 2018 1:53pm Nov 30, 2018 1:53pm
When you know the Kiwi is being traded out of a position. From my experience trading the Kiwi can be a bit like trading emerging and Nat Gas market, pushed around, parabolic spikes against the market with no apparent reason. I find this mostly happens when Kiwi is being pushed to a level on the AN so that chart is most important. RBNZ will not increase IR prior to Australia and Bond market agrees with that so we have a continued push against this. This will be another great trade against the crosses on the Kiwi with long term positioning and leverage the most important factors in holding through the trade.

The charts below are 2yr Bond Kiwi and Aussie, Dollar index/NZD, Yaun and Iron Index (which just represents this is not a commodities drive). My point a view is if we get Tariff relief over the weekend then the kiwi will prob run higher against the US and possible spike against some crosses but price is extending outside value on the crosses. Especially AUD and CAD.

Trading the front side of a Kiwi push can be a widow maker and looking for a range break to backside of chart.

This is Just my point of view and one side of the argument.
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  • #12,829
  • Nov 30, 2018 2:32pm Nov 30, 2018 2:32pm
My Thoughts on NZD/CAD.

Im am looking for 92 - 93 to hold. At 95 we would be back to the same value when the 2yr bond spread between the Kiwi and the Cad was 1.5 negative CAD. The spread is now positive .5 to the CAD. We have a complete washout in Crude but my thoughts are Crude is capped into 45 on the down for now. So will be interesting to see how this plays out. But range break of swing is needed.

If we get a move to 95 on the NC the velocity of that move will be = to velocity of move when NZ was raising rates to 3 and the 2yr spread was moving to 2.0.

Cant say the kiwi can not move back to top range at 95 but am saying the fundamentals would not make any sense at that level with the cycle in New Zealand slowing.

Would like to hear any counter arguments to this, apart from Crude washout. My only counter thoughts on charts are UC still think needs to see .36 and Kiwi could run through to 72 on Tariff relief.
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  • #12,830
  • Nov 30, 2018 5:05pm Nov 30, 2018 5:05pm
G/A ..reached the first target.
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  • #12,831
  • Nov 30, 2018 5:09pm Nov 30, 2018 5:09pm
Quoting chess king
GA I'll wait for a good entry in this pair. 1.83 a good place {image}
unfortunately without me
I wanted one H&S at 1.83xx ...but the pair did not test the highs.
  • #12,832
  • Dec 2, 2018 3:19pm Dec 2, 2018 3:19pm
Quote
Would like to hear any counter arguments to this, apart from Crude washout.

Apart from a resolution to the US/China tariff issue I can't see anything substantial that will hold up NZD for that long. On the flip side CAD still has some issues as the USMCA deal still has to be signed off by the US senate. There is also a large spread between WCS (Western Canadian Select) and WTI due to the capacity constraints around the bakken field. The other thing to be mindful of is that the next rate hike on the loonie could still be a month or more away, with 'institutions' thinking that at the January meeting it's still only 50-50 as to whether BOC go ahead.
  • #12,833
  • Dec 3, 2018 1:07am Dec 3, 2018 1:07am
Quoting Steamroller
{quote} Apart from a resolution to the US/China tariff issue I can't see anything substantial that will hold up NZD for that long. On the flip side CAD still has some issues as the USMCA deal still has to be signed off by the US senate. There is also a large spread between WCS (Western Canadian Select) and WTI due to the capacity constraints around the bakken field. The other thing to be mindful of is that the next rate hike on the loonie could still be a month or more away, with 'institutions' thinking that at the January meeting it's still only...
All good points.
  • #12,834
  • Dec 3, 2018 3:37am Dec 3, 2018 3:37am
NZD
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #12,835
  • Dec 3, 2018 4:16am Dec 3, 2018 4:16am
Quoting heispark
NZD {image}
Looking the same. I have it marked as 2 crab extension areas for trading on the crosses. First failed through flag setup but think 70 is the key.
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  • #12,836
  • Dec 3, 2018 4:30am Dec 3, 2018 4:30am
Quoting squawk
{quote} For me Crude is close. {image} {image}
First interesting bid on Crude.
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  • #12,837
  • Dec 3, 2018 1:55pm Dec 3, 2018 1:55pm
Quoting squawk
10Y Feels like rotation into bonds is sooner rather than later. Thought yields would get to 3.50 on the 10Y but the squeeze doesn't seem likes its there. Bullish butterfly pattern is possible for a squeeze above but volatility on the index looks like smart money has been getting out. 10Y most likely destination on risk. Is this where we see 10y break bellow 2 yields. See 2 scenarios of tops seems in on 10 or one last push to 3.5. {image} {image} {image}
Its getting close.
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  • #12,838
  • Dec 4, 2018 1:54pm Dec 4, 2018 1:54pm
Chart reasoning for Euro. Still waiting with buy limits in 110 and 107. I don't think 10y bonds runs a lower low from here nor the spread between the US and Euro Bonds widens much more.
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  • #12,839
  • Dec 4, 2018 1:59pm Dec 4, 2018 1:59pm
Quoting squawk
10Y Feels like rotation into bonds is sooner rather than later. Thought yields would get to 3.50 on the 10Y but the squeeze doesn't seem likes its there. Bullish butterfly pattern is possible for a squeeze above but volatility on the index looks like smart money has been getting out. 10Y most likely destination on risk. Is this where we see 10y break bellow 2 yields. See 2 scenarios of tops seems in on 10 or one last push to 3.5. {image} {image} {image}
US10 Completes. The yields are so narrow now between the 10 and 2 that looks likely invert over next 6 months. Looking back market turns when steepens.

10Y looks like it has another run at top yet.
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  • #12,840
  • Dec 4, 2018 2:12pm Dec 4, 2018 2:12pm
Like always Kiwi has stretched all value especially on the crosses. This is valid area to look for dump soon as I believe its been push to where it wanted to go on AN or close.
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