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CCFp weekly signals (set and forget basket trading)

  • #15,841
  • Dec 2, 2018 7:15pm Dec 2, 2018 7:15pm
Quoting yohec
{quote} You adjust the negative trigger level on the new VB. Here is an example. RB opens and you are not at the computer. The trigger level for the new VB should be -500 pips. Several hours later you get to your computer and you see that the RB is at -200 pips. Then open the VB and set the trigger level at -300 pips. If the RB is at +100 pips, set the trigger level to -600 pips. Easy.
So you think a situation where RB opens and going strait south to trigger basket No 2 is unlikely when you sleep ??
  • #15,842
  • Dec 2, 2018 7:23pm Dec 2, 2018 7:23pm
Quoting yohec
{quote} You adjust the negative trigger level on the new VB. Here is an example. RB opens and you are not at the computer. The trigger level for the new VB should be -500 pips. Several hours later you get to your computer and you see that the RB is at -200 pips. Then open the VB and set the trigger level at -300 pips. If the RB is at +100 pips, set the trigger level to -600 pips. Easy.
I think the asia and aussie traders can have some problems with this new strategy.
  • #15,843
  • Dec 2, 2018 7:30pm Dec 2, 2018 7:30pm
Quoting TimFX59
{quote} So you think a situation where RB opens and going strait south to trigger basket No 2 is unlikely when you sleep ??
It is possible that the RB goes straight down past the negative trigger. What would I do? If it is below or near the trigger level, I would open the second basket immediately. If it has recovered sufficiently so it is not near the trigger level any more, then I would just open the VB in case it goes back down.

Sometimes we miss one.
  • #15,844
  • Dec 2, 2018 7:32pm Dec 2, 2018 7:32pm
Quoting TimFX59
{quote} I think the asia and aussie traders can have some problems with this new strategy.
Yes, it is possible. If I start missing too many second basket entries because of the new strategy, I would revert to the original strategy. It is still very profitable.
  • #15,845
  • Dec 2, 2018 7:46pm Dec 2, 2018 7:46pm
Quoting yohec
{quote} Yes, it is possible. If I start missing too many second basket entries because of the new strategy, I would revert to the original strategy. It is still very profitable.
I think it will work for you and it is not easy to predict if it's a problem in other time zones, time will tell.
  • #15,846
  • Dec 2, 2018 8:07pm Dec 2, 2018 8:07pm
Quoting yohec
{quote} After considering your suggestion regarding using a positive trigger to open my weekly baskets, I analyzed the results for all of my trades in 2018. I had 10 weeks in which the Primary RB reached a maximum of only 26 pips or less. In all 10 of these weeks, a second basket was opened after hitting the negative trigger. The results were 4 wins, 3 losses, and 3 breakeven. The total for the 10 weeks was -2332 pips. If I had used an upper trigger of 30 pips, the Primary RB would not have opened until they hit the negative trigger. These baskets...
I think I will increase the lot size and TP $ around 30% in the situation where VB is not open but when the negative trigger opens RB.
  • #15,847
  • Dec 2, 2018 8:14pm Dec 2, 2018 8:14pm
Quoting TimFX59
{quote} I think it will work for you and it is not easy to predict if it's a problem in other time zones, time will tell.
You are correct that the changes will require more screen time and management of the entries. But after analyzing the very positive effect the changes would have made in my results, I feel I have to try the changes.

Other than the increased screen time and possibly missing some second basket entries, do you agree that the change in the strategy makes it more profitable?

If you are going to continue with the original strategy, we can compare results every week.
  • #15,848
  • Edited 8:33pm Dec 2, 2018 8:22pm | Edited 8:33pm
Quoting yohec
{quote} You are correct that the changes will require more screen time and management of the entries. But after analyzing the very positive effect the changes would have made in my results, I feel I have to try the changes. Other than the increased screen time and possibly missing some second basket entries, do you agree that the change in the strategy makes it more profitable? If you are going to continue with the original strategy, we can compare results every week.
I do agree that the changes could/should be more profitable and I will also use this new setup and probably adjust the lot size if VB does not open a RB by a positive trigger level.
However if it is not easy to manage the opening of No. two VB then I might go back to the original setup.
  • #15,849
  • Dec 2, 2018 10:54pm Dec 2, 2018 10:54pm
Quoting mrdfx
Tuesday 14:00 GMT basket hit TP, that's 3 weeks in a row. It did take a while, a little over 10 hrs to hit profit and the DD was the highest its been the last 3 weeks. Today's Wednesday basket did not trigger so no trade today either. On to Monday we go! {image}
Hi MrDFX and all other members of this thread,

I am following mrdfx settings for my basket and I should also mention that I am relatively new to this thread. I have started reading from the start but assuming it will take me a little time to catch up I have taken a few shortcuts and mrdfx settings to experiment.

Today is going to be my first day trading this method.

My only question is that though I understand how it all works together but I have failed to grasp the reasoning behind the VB. And I am also not sure how I can use it to my benefit. It must be mentioned somewhere in the thread but it will take me sometime to reach there. If meanwhile, mrdfx or someone with enough understanding on the working of the VB can explain me the reasoning behind use of VB, I will really appreciate it.

Thanks,
Ravs
  • #15,850
  • Dec 2, 2018 11:05pm Dec 2, 2018 11:05pm
Quoting yohec
{quote} After considering your suggestion regarding using a positive trigger to open my weekly baskets, I analyzed the results for all of my trades in 2018. I had 10 weeks in which the Primary RB reached a maximum of only 26 pips or less. In all 10 of these weeks, a second basket was opened after hitting the negative trigger. The results were 4 wins, 3 losses, and 3 breakeven. The total for the 10 weeks was -2332 pips. If I had used an upper trigger of 30 pips, the Primary RB would not have opened until they hit the negative trigger. These baskets...
I think you will also lose some pips compared to your old stats when VB 40 level is hit - now you are 40 pips behind and sometimes you have closed it around 150 to 180. In this situation it will probably be 40 pips less. But I still believe that the new setup will be more profitable.
  • #15,851
  • Dec 3, 2018 4:20am Dec 3, 2018 4:20am
Quoting yohec
{quote} Thanks for the indicator. I was just testing it on a single basket and it is not reading the Pips correctly. It appears to be reading about twice the actual number. You can see in the screen shot that the actual value is -19.3 pips while the monitor is reading -41.7 pips. {image}
I have got the code from Jess, and have given it to my coder. So, Please find below the final version. I have tested it and it seems fine.
Understandably It refresher much faster than the EA hence you just might see a difference initially.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Basket_Monitor_V1d.ex4   134 KB | 257 downloads
  • #15,852
  • Dec 3, 2018 5:14am Dec 3, 2018 5:14am
Quoting yohec
{quote} After considering your suggestion regarding using a positive trigger to open my weekly baskets, I analyzed the results for all of my trades in 2018. I had 10 weeks in which the Primary RB reached a maximum of only 26 pips or less. In all 10 of these weeks, a second basket was opened after hitting the negative trigger. The results were 4 wins, 3 losses, and 3 breakeven. The total for the 10 weeks was -2332 pips. If I had used an upper trigger of 30 pips, the Primary RB would not have opened until they hit the negative trigger. These baskets...
yohec, are u still using v.17 as entry signal?
Okay... sorry about my messed up English Tenses
  • #15,853
  • Dec 3, 2018 5:15am Dec 3, 2018 5:15am
Hello yohec,
I see that you use the original ccfp indicator, is that right?
Can you tell us which settings you use - is it FF, FT, TF or TT ? A few month ago I made a few weeks testing FF, FT and TF - but I just
could not decide which one works best for me, so I swiched using the CMSM indicator because I had not to decide between different settings.
At the moment I open 3 trade monitors on monday 10:00 gmt each with virtual baskets. The first one has a VB trigger 60 pips positive and 300 pips negative.
I set the VB trigger for the other two trade monitors at 5000 pips each, so I am sure they will not be triggered. When my monday basket has triggered the
60 pips and it is closed with profit or loss I will observe the other two baskets and wait for the retrace. When I see them going up again after beeing negative,
I manually open a new basket to profit after this retrace. When the monday VB goes down and hits the negative trigger I open my next basket on wednesday in the same way. Most of the time this works but it needs time beeing at the computer.
Thomas
  • #15,854
  • Dec 3, 2018 6:37am Dec 3, 2018 6:37am
so today's basket shot right into profit for me (3.7% to be exact), but due to me fiddling with profit lock & so forth it closed at 0.1%

will be doing the tuesday basket next
  • #15,855
  • Dec 3, 2018 7:10am Dec 3, 2018 7:10am
Quoting thomas1386
Hello yohec, I see that you use the original ccfp indicator, is that right? Can you tell us which settings you use - is it FF, FT, TF or TT ? A few month ago I made a few weeks testing FF, FT and TF - but I just could not decide which one works best for me, so I swiched using the CMSM indicator because I had not to decide between different settings. At the moment I open 3 trade monitors on monday 10:00 gmt each with virtual baskets. The first one has a VB trigger 60 pips positive and 300 pips negative. I set the VB trigger for the other two trade...
Thomas, I use FF. My set file is published in Post #13,314.

I never considered using CMSM because it continually changes trade suggestions. My system opens a second basket after a big drawdown. I wanted to make sure that if a second basket opens, it contains the exact same pairs as the primary basket.
  • #15,856
  • Dec 3, 2018 7:18am Dec 3, 2018 7:18am
Monday basket done and dusted in 45 mins.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2018-12-03 at 10.43.40.png Size: 284 KB
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #15,857
  • Edited 7:50am Dec 3, 2018 7:36am | Edited 7:50am
Quoting yohec
{quote} After considering your suggestion regarding using a positive trigger to open my weekly baskets, I analyzed the results for all of my trades in 2018. I had 10 weeks in which the Primary RB reached a maximum of only 26 pips or less. In all 10 of these weeks, a second basket was opened after hitting the negative trigger. The results were 4 wins, 3 losses, and 3 breakeven. The total for the 10 weeks was -2332 pips. If I had used an upper trigger of 30 pips, the Primary RB would not have opened until they hit the negative trigger. These baskets...
So you will use a 40 pip trigger for both a 6 pair VB, and a 15 pair VB? 40/6 = 6.67pips Pos move/pair to trigger RB. 40/15 = 2.66pips Pos move/pair to trigger RB. The normal +- ranging of a 15 pair VB basket using a 40 pip trigger value is almost certain to trigger a RB. With fixed trigger of 40 pips, I expect in the long run more false positives than what would be optimum number... However, I must say that reviewing your data does not show this idea(more false positives)to be true, 40 pips looks to be OK. Perhaps more trade results are necessary to better determine this?
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #15,858
  • Dec 3, 2018 7:51am Dec 3, 2018 7:51am
Quoting yohec
{quote} Thomas, I use FF. My set file is published in Post #13,314. I never considered using CMSM because it continually changes trade suggestions. My system opens a second basket after a big drawdown. I wanted to make sure that if a second basket opens, it contains the exact same pairs as the primary basket.
Current Candle = Last candle on the chart is called candle_0
Previous candle or second candle is called candle_1
And third candle is called candle_2
.....

When you choose FF setting @ ccfp_diff, indicator calculates the moving average differences by looking candle_1 & candle_2 and it totally ignores the current candle where all the action goes on.

This is why trade suggestions don't change @ FF setting until the current candle closes and a new candle opens.
  • #15,859
  • Dec 3, 2018 8:18am Dec 3, 2018 8:18am
Quoting Pippopotamus
{quote} So you will use a 40 pip trigger for both a 6 pair VB, and a 15 pair VB? 40/6 = 6.67pips Pos move/pair to trigger RB. 40/15 = 2.66pips Pos move/pair to trigger RB. The normal +- ranging of a 15 pair VB basket using a 40 pip trigger value is almost certain to trigger a RB. With fixed trigger of 40 pips, I expect in the long run more false positives than what would be optimum number... However, I must say that reviewing your data does not show this idea(more false positives)to be true, 40 pips looks to be OK. Perhaps more trade results are...
I thought about that, but I'm not going to make different rules depending on the number of pairs. I want to keep the system simple, since it has already shown that it is profitable over the long term. Adding the positive pip trigger should make it even more profitable.

For all the trades in 2018, the average number of pairs in the basket is 12. When I have a basket with 8 or less pairs, I start looking for a manual exit when the profit is over 100 pips. I know that with the small number of pairs, it is much more difficult for the basket to reach the profit lock of 300 pips.
  • #15,860
  • Dec 3, 2018 9:12am Dec 3, 2018 9:12am
Monday basket:

MT4 EA v44 (you'll see v45 on image, i switched after RB)
Indicator CMSM v17.01: level 4@ PERIOD_W1, MA(3,5,MODE_EMA,PRICE_WEIGTHED). MA x [1,2,3,4,6,12]]

Result: 0.83%

On to wednesday

Ps: will be releasing v45 sometime this week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ccfp_live.jpg Size: 226 KB
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