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  • #1,146,421
  • Nov 29, 2018 1:33am Nov 29, 2018 1:33am
Good Morning my friends
Some thoughts and food for the brain

Technical: The EUR/USD created a bullish outside candle yesterday, A bullish reversal would be confirmed only if the follow-through is positive, and for this we need to close today above 1.1388 (high of yesterday's bullish outside-day).

Fundy: Yesterday FED chair said, "Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy." Meaning FED is very close to neutralization. This contrasts sharply with the view of his early October’s one, when Powell said, "We may go past neutral, but we're a long way from neutral at this point, probably." I think this kind of speech kinda neutralized his October’s hawkish comments which is why Dollar got weaken yesterday, in line with that both 2- & 10-Years US Yield lost ground as well. Plus, Market could start pricing only one rate hike in 2019 instead of three which would be surely EU positive if ECB stays on its current path and committed to hike in late 2019.

NB: Todays EU data is very important for the Bulls,

Happy Trading.
Trades technical moves enforced by fundamentals
  • #1,146,422
  • Nov 29, 2018 1:36am Nov 29, 2018 1:36am
Draghi is at the Global Research Forum on International macroeconomics and finance, that it will be more about generalities
If not specific monetary policy questions, Draghi will not affect euro too much
Member
  • #1,146,423
  • Nov 29, 2018 1:41am Nov 29, 2018 1:41am
Quoting TudorIoan
Ok, trying to help the bears... 1360, 1342 could be decent reasonable Fibo retracements on the Powell's Rally {image}
Not a chance for bears...
It seems there will be no retracement, ...so Fibo technicals lost to monetary policy fundamentals (Powell)
Member
  • #1,146,424
  • Nov 29, 2018 2:14am Nov 29, 2018 2:14am
Quoting TudorIoan
Draghi is at the Global Research Forum on International macroeconomics and finance, that it will be more about generalities If not specific monetary policy questions, Draghi will not affect euro too much
Cancelled speech.
Keep going, Powell now!
Member
  • #1,146,425
  • Edited 3:04am Nov 29, 2018 2:53am | Edited 3:04am
London boys play foul (brexit ghost still on their shoulders or just casino ) ok bought gbpusd at 2780 again, breaks 1812/05 is not good sign for direct bull but ok the ranging as thought before but modified ways. take care
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #1,146,426
  • Nov 29, 2018 2:54am Nov 29, 2018 2:54am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Not a chance for bears... It seems there will be no retracement, ...so Fibo technicals lost to monetary policy fundamentals (Powell)
Unpredictable shit on EUR/USD intraday so far. It's a stop hunting, zig-zag gamble.
Member
  • #1,146,427
  • Nov 29, 2018 3:18am Nov 29, 2018 3:18am
Long at 1.1370. SL 40 pips. TP open.
I wanna be a billionaire so freaking bad!
  • #1,146,428
  • Nov 29, 2018 3:26am Nov 29, 2018 3:26am
Some signs for "we saw the high" are on green on my side....

The current HEW count is suggesting around 1.1403 a high
Heiken ashi (1H-chart) switched to red

Next sign is a move below the 1.1363.....

Could be an interesting sell opportunity I think....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,146,429
  • Nov 29, 2018 3:42am Nov 29, 2018 3:42am
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  • #1,146,430
  • Nov 29, 2018 3:48am Nov 29, 2018 3:48am
dollar will fall

euro and DXY have the same pattern one is bullish flag and one is bearish flag
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  • #1,146,431
  • Nov 29, 2018 4:29am Nov 29, 2018 4:29am
In FX markets, the USD was pressured with the USD index back below 97.00 following comments by Fed Chair Powell that the policy rate is "just below" estimates of neutral which participants interpreted as a possible sign the Fed could begin to slow down on its hiking cycle. Also in which is in contrast to Powell’s prior view of rates being “a long way” from neutral. This benefitted the USD’s major counterparts across the board in which EUR/USD reclaimed the 1.1300 handle.

Today we have the FOMC Minutes, which can confirm or deny Powell’s speech made yesterday. If it confirms EUR/USD can continue pushing upward.

Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 GMT:
EUR/USD: 1.1285-00 (2.17 BLN), 1.1340-50 (3.2 BLN), 1.1360-65 (1.35 BLN), 1.1380-85 (0.650 BLN) and 1.1400-05 (0.977 BLN).

Still holding a short position @ 1.1459 with a target @ 1.1236 and with my stop at breakeven.
Yesterday, the EUR/USD closed shy below the 10-day moving average if I see a daily close above the 10-day moving average I will close my short position.
  • #1,146,432
  • Nov 29, 2018 4:37am Nov 29, 2018 4:37am
Quoting Jonstaples
In FX markets, the USD was pressured with the USD index back below 97.00 following comments by Fed Chair Powell that the policy rate is "just below" estimates of neutral which participants interpreted as a possible sign the Fed could begin to slow down on its hiking cycle. Also in which is in contrast to Powell’s prior view of rates being “a long way” from neutral. This benefitted the USD’s major counterparts across the board in which EUR/USD reclaimed the 1.1300 handle. Today we have the FOMC Minutes, which can confirm...
Nice 1459 short in progress, Jon, good luck!
Member
  • #1,146,433
  • Nov 29, 2018 5:07am Nov 29, 2018 5:07am
Quoting TudorIoan
My Intraday Outlook. (ahead London) Powell 'just below' comment seen as suggesting fewer rate hikes, so dovish (EU up) ...maybe we'll see more Reverse trend, buy the Lows? Too much more politicals to come to be sure of a trend reversal! Intraday resistance : - 1.1400 - 14 - 27... Intraday support : - 1.1377 - 66 - 40 - 25 I'll sell 1379 and buy 1393 Have a great trading day, you all! {image}
Sht ...
short 1379 SL -10
long 1393 SL -10
short 1379 closed at 1350 +29
...not so perfect this intraday game today, but still in green
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Member
  • #1,146,434
  • Nov 29, 2018 5:20am Nov 29, 2018 5:20am
I'm waiting the USD Index cross the trendline Red for to Buy EURUSD.

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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #1,146,435
  • Nov 29, 2018 5:38am Nov 29, 2018 5:38am
I'm looking the GBPUSD too, because the volume of GBPUSD can push the EURUSD to down too.

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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #1,146,436
  • Nov 29, 2018 5:53am Nov 29, 2018 5:53am
Quoting msniper
dollar will fall euro and DXY have the same pattern one is bullish flag and one is bearish flag {image}
In my eyes this where just corrections...

look at the dollar fall from yesterday..... this is in my eyes a simple abc => so a corrections....
in the eurusd we saw the opposite... the from yesterday rise looks like a simple abc => also a correction....

The higher degree counts I have are standing already for a long time without a main change.......

I really think the next stop down is around 1.1210

The current move down now in EURUSD could be the wave-i (orange) for a 5-wave move down...if so then this could be fit in the higher (green) wave count I talked about last days.
I don't say this is the way the moves goes (important wave-ii is missing for better projections) but with normal retracements and projections this is a good shot I think

Ofcourse I don't have a Cristal Ball and can be wrong with my view but.....Be careful!!
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You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,146,437
  • Nov 29, 2018 6:17am Nov 29, 2018 6:17am
Quoting palpite
I'm waiting the USD Index cross the trendline Red for to Buy EURUSD. {image}
.

Buy - 1.1374

SL - 1.1350

.
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #1,146,438
  • Nov 29, 2018 6:51am Nov 29, 2018 6:51am
Quoting palpite
{quote} . Buy - 1.1374 SL - 1.1350 .
.

Moved SL - 1.1375

.
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #1,146,439
  • Nov 29, 2018 6:54am Nov 29, 2018 6:54am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} In my eyes this where just corrections... look at the dollar fall from yesterday..... this is in my eyes a simple abc => so a corrections.... in the eurusd we saw the opposite... the from yesterday rise looks like a simple abc => also a correction.... The higher degree counts I have are standing already for a long time without a main change....... I really think the next stop down is around 1.1210 The current move down now in EURUSD could be the wave-i (orange) for a 5-wave move down...if so then this could be fit in the higher (green) wave...
I posted this chart yesterday and it shows my Elliott waves counting we finished wave 2

and now we are in wave 1 of wave 3

wave 3 of 3 will finish at 1.1900

top of wave 1 of 3 hard to guess now
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  • #1,146,440
  • Nov 29, 2018 6:55am Nov 29, 2018 6:55am
Trump tweets leads the market again.
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