USD/JPY Discussion

I think the correction has happened and going to lower.what do you say? Friday generally sometimes trend continues till end of trading day

Seems it was short lived, bonds also began to sell off.

Stock market also weak hence the usd yen is bearish.

It looks as though Mon it shall start with gap below and continue bearish..I guess bad news of bond sell off

Hey all - what are some things to be looking for in the news over the weekend that might give some idea other than technical analysis of where this price is heading? What is everyone's sentiment on this pair going into next week?

Bullish or bearish?

My personal opinion is that this stays sideways between 113.30 and 111.71 for a while - meaning it still has room to move down. This pair was in that range the majority of last month (October).

I want to start this week a little bit different than last week and put extra research into my planning - so everyone's opinion is appreciated.

Quite a few might be still holding sell positions, waiting for 112 area.

I really like your enthusiasm. I too will work on stuff this week. Normally I like to enter a trade based on rejection of TL or even 5 min triple candle reversal. My success rate wasnt TOO bad last week, but I found myself repeatedly getting into profit, getting trade BE, then having the trade turn and only ending BE or small profit. This week I want to really hunt for some triple candle reversal HOUR candles, and try get some trades to last for 4 hours minimum. Ideally I'd like UJ to spend the first few hours ideally drifting up ( if it does gap down someone said on here once it has a 70% chance of retracing but I dont know the true odds, and the spread is high to start so not a trade I would jump at, not my thing etc). I'd then like to short, maybe multiple smaller trades to try pick profit through the week.. but who knows. If the Asian session doesnt shake much I might try London open. So for me whether it goes up or down, I'd like to try get some longer lasting entries based on higher time frames.. I havent checked the calendar yet but yeah that's my plan. I haven't found having a def opinion re long / short to be beneficial really as you're cutting yourself out of the opp side of the market. I try to look for good entries for either, then money manage. Having said that I def want to short lol. Having a strong opinion either way I think is potentially dangerous. For eg when I got stung last week, I entered on a very bearish hour candle. I placed shorts at the end of the hour thinking well it MUST go lower after that. But no, the next hour candle was an equal bull candle and I had my bottom overexposed. I then went long... and UJ dived. So more care with risk management, and better rewards is def on my mind. I also went long EJ with triple candle hour reversal, but TP all 4 trades after 1 hour !! EJ is still up! So I will try and see some trades into bigger pips, but I find that challenging.

If it really is heading south, I'd think it would touch 113.3 one last time for good measure, at least reaching up to touch your SMA at some point. Sometimes I think of FX as someone with OCD obsessively checking doors are shut before moving on. Then again, in a bear market, it's like theres a trap door and down they go no goodbyes ! Who knows

Sorry one last thing, I'd really like to say how much I appreciate that this is a civil trade discussion. I read other FF forums and they are not always so civil, shall we say. So thanks.

Tough one but if it does start with a lower gap on Monday then I think it has a strong chance continuing the trend downwards plus the top US officials have indicated a global slowdown so crazy stuff

However question is will it outweigh trumps optimism on China trade deal Vs global slowdown... It can also start with a gap above the closing.anyway happy wknd

$1.2billion of options expire Monday at strike price of 114.00

Also one more thing..if it starts with a gap below we are for sure bearish to 112 to 110. But this is trading so let's see. Do you own analysis too..good luck

So I'm thinking you guys are bearish overall - either this will pop to 113.3 then drop, or or gap down before it continues to to drop.

I still think this will sit in the range its at (from my earlier comment), but I want to wait and see if it possibly breaks above that 113.3 resistance and where it will go from there before taking another position. If it "gaps" right off the bat, I am more inclined to go short - but then again, I might wait and see if it will continues on to support before making an entry.

H4 doesn't show any definitive trend up or down, although there is a case to be made for an up-channel starting back in Late-March/Early-April. If sentiment stays bearish and there is no major positive news over the weekend, then I have doubt that the channel will hold.

Overall I am unsure, but leaning bearish.

For the bulls, on H4 could be tweezer bottom at strong support, fib 50% retracement. ( NB I don't use fib much, and I placed at tips of H4 tails, not sure if that's appropriate)

For the bears, Friday daily candle very bearish, but less volume than earlier indecisive days in the week, and it has stopped right on the 50SMA, but not below it.

I don't think the bears can get too excited yet, but surely there's a good chance that support of 112.055 at 100 SMA is a fair target for the next couple of days, even if it finds bull support??

This is what I want to work on this week. I'm guilty of closing good profitable trades to cancel out my losses, keeping me spinning wheels. I'm yet to hold a trade greater than 24hours which seems embarrassing somehow. Maybe I'm trying to morph from scalper to swing

Very informative video really appreciate it. My problem is same as well while i take trades that normally goes in my favor but i take profit too fast and miss out on big opportunities

I strongly think that whether it does not even start with a gap it still will be bearish Monday. Unless it starts with a gap above then not sure about the trend yet

Sunday 11/18/18.

USD/JPY from around the web + my 2 cents:

1. This article from forex.com is bearish on USDJPY:
   1. "comments suggest that some members of the Federal Reserve may be second-guessing the central bank’s informal once-a-quarter schedule for interest rate increases, especially as we move into 2019"
   2. "As of writing, the US dollar index is set for its biggest one-day fall so far this month, and USD/JPY is seeing particularly strong selling pressure."
   3. "...the bullish tide in USD/JPY is showing signs of shifting heading into a holiday-shortened week..."

2. Another recent article from fxstreet has a more bullish outlook, but specifically in 2019, not in the short term:
   1. "According to analysts from Danske Bank, a positive environment for the US dollar should persist in 2019 and keep USD/JPY supported."
   2. "...in our view, slowing monetary growth will not bring the BoJ closer to its inflation aim – furthermore, it could start to become a JPY positive.”
   3. "“During the recent selloff in equity markets, the JPY did see some temporary safe haven demand. If negative sentiment returns, the JPY could see renewed support..."
   4. "...Another risk to keep in mind is the potential for oil prices to rally again. That in turn would be JPY negative.”
   5. "we maintain our view on USD/JPY and look for the pair to range-trade at 113-115 over the coming year (2019)."

3. I also did some research in correlations the pair has with other pairs, commodities, or indexes. There is an interesting piece on babypips that shows the USDJPY pair moves in the same direction as the NIKKEI.
4. The NIKKEI has been trending down since October 2nd (see chart).
5. I recall a convo I had with COGSx86 (Yoda) on Nov 2nd in this thread, in which he explained how bonds and this pair follow each other closely. I am attaching a photo of a 15-minute chart that shows just that - US10Y and UJ moving in the same directions.
6. USD/JPY Currency Pair Relationship With Treasuries according to Investopedia:
   1. "The USD/JPY currency pair has traditionally had a close correlation with U.S. Treasuries. When Treasury bonds, notes and bills rise, USD/JPY prices weaken. The logic of investing in this currency pair is that the U.S. would never default on its bond obligations, providing a secure, safe haven status and ultimately making this allocation a long position."
   2. "...when interest rates are heading higher during the course of a trading day or are suspected to move up in the future, Treasury bond prices will go down. This will lift the U.S. dollar and, in turn, USD/JPY prices will strengthen, and thus we can conclude that the market is in search of yields from Treasury trades and a lower USD/JPY price (making this a short position)."

7. There is a lot of speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. If the Investopedia article referenced above is accurate, that could indicate in the near future USD/JPY will bearish.
8. Sentiment from around the web:
   1. Forexfactory - most in the community seem to be cautiously bullish to bearish.
   2. Tradingview (Ideas) - most, but not all, speculators are recommending short on this pair. The site's technical analysis summary also recommends sell.
   3. Stocktwits - Sentiment was unclear. I actually may stop using this site.

My Take:

1. I think in the coming week and short-term, the price will continue to move down based off the above cited information. After that, there is a chance this pair will shoot up again in the 114-115 range.
2. Looking at the technical indicators; the short term EMA will soon cross below the 100-Day SMA, and price has already crossed below both. Support and Resistance are roughly between 113.30 and 111.80 with the price currently at 112.82 moving in a downward direction.
3. I may enter a short position with a stop loss just above the current resistance line. The distance from the current price to support would be more than twice the distance to the stop-loss, giving me a between than 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio.

Charts tend to be historic most of the times and usdjpy chart is one this time. So most likely looks bearish.unless it is intervened