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USD/JPY Trading Room

I am long up to around 112 into the end of data week

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...01-29-2006.PNG
Good morning everyone. Here is what I am seeing at this time.

The 106.87 area is a key and we are there right now. I am short term bullish on the USDJPY (see above) so I would look to set longs on a push through this level. Target is ADV (Adaptive Dynamic Value) at 107.91 or better. Exit here and wait for value to build before setting up again. Risk should be fairly tight here, as any move down will target the 105.91 area. If you short into this level, exit here.

Good luck today. I think we have ADP and GDP at 8:15 and 8:30, then the FOMC this afternoon. It may be a whacky day, but then again all days are whacky anymore. When I trade the Yen, I feel like I am trading US Equity indexes lately.


http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...060%201-30.PNG
It's odd everyone loves the 6-12 pip spread GJ, but nobody cares for the 2-3 pip spread USDJPY that not only drives it, but also costs less to short and trade due to spread and swap...

Anyhow.
Just my hobby count, up for discussion with anyone who dabbles in EW as well, so that I may get some pointers as to potential mistakes and proportions etc.
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Trust price. Know yourself.
SL,

Not a EW guy by any means, but I do agree that we're headed down. My rational is that the TL has been broken on the Daily and we've failed to retest it and hold above 105 comfortably. A close below 104 would help me in my thought process.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
Quoting SeekingLight
It's odd everyone loves the 6-12 pip spread GJ, but nobody cares for the 2-3 pip spread USDJPY that not only drives it, but also costs less to short and trade due to spread and swap...

Anyhow.
Just my hobby count, up for discussion with anyone who dabbles in EW as well, so that I may get some pointers as to potential mistakes and proportions etc.
Pardon for not spreading any "light" on your counting, although I understand your point with U/J contra G/J. The difference (statistical) between U/J and G/J is the daily average range. Measuring daily range over a 20 days period this calculation reveals;

U/J: 118 pips

G/J: 277 pips

So if you play with a 6 pip spread on G/J it boils down to personal (preferred) style/tolerance, IMO.

Could be compared to 2 sets of rollercoasters;

1 cost 3 euro and you measure the risk for tolerant. The other one cost 6 euro but looks twice as "risky/scarier/fun" as the other

I'm calling it a weekend before I pop another bottle, good weekend all.
Measure twice, cut once
Quoting aediaz1
The difference (statistical) between U/J and G/J is the daily average range. Measuring daily range over a 20 days period this calculation reveals;

U/J: 118 pips

G/J: 277 pips

So if you play with a 6 pip spread on G/J it boils down to personal (preferred) style/tolerance, IMO.
You're forgetting that GJ also has tons worse leverage due to the stop size. USDJPY on average has simply given the smaller entry "wrap around" vs GJ.

Example: 40 pips UJ 4h pin bar, 170 pips GJ pin bar.
UJ moves it 260 pips, GJ 750. That's 6.5 times your risk on UJ, 4.4 times your risk on GJ for the same move/swing.

So, to summarize: you paid more spread, more negative swap and got less return for your money.
BUT - you get to post more pips to a forum(or to write down for yourself).
Quite frankly it's a suspicion of mine that this plays a MUCH MUCH larger role/is a bigger "factor"/influence than any efficiency consideration for many.

More pips = more ego satisfaction, be it privately or publicly.

I'd however prefer more % = more profit, so I bring this comparison up from time to time
Trust price. Know yourself.
SL,

you can apply the same logic to trading AJ v GJ.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
Quoting SeekingLight
You're forgetting that GJ also has tons worse leverage due to the stop size. USDJPY on average has simply given the smaller entry "wrap around" vs GJ.

Example: 40 pips UJ 4h pin bar, 170 pips GJ pin bar.
UJ moves it 260 pips, GJ 750. That's 6.5 times your risk on UJ, 4.4 times your risk on GJ for the same move/swing.

So, to summarize: you paid more spread, more negative swap and got less return for your money.
BUT - you get to post more pips to a forum(or to write down for yourself).
Quite frankly it's a suspicion of mine that this plays a MUCH MUCH larger role/is a bigger "factor"/influence than any efficiency consideration for many.

More pips = more ego satisfaction, be it privately or publicly.

I'd however prefer more % = more profit, so I bring this comparison up from time to time
I agree on % instead of pips. Pips is not that honest compared to %. Pairs like usd/nok moves 600-700 "pips" a day but that doesn't mean you're rich if you manage to catch some of it.

It shouldn't take long for new traders to understand that pips is just a term to describe a move in different rates, much "easier" than telling % moves on each rate. Little common does pips share with real profit/loss. Needles to say one trader could make 3 pips a day making 10000 times more money than another trader making 50 pips a day.

Btw, did someone read about the worlds largest (known) scalper ? Traded couple of 100k units if I remember right. And aimed for 3-5 "pips" each trade ? Saw a link for it somewhere here on FF.
Measure twice, cut once
I know which way I've been trading the last 2-3 weeks

Updated chart from stuff I regularly post in the journal. Funny how it seems a lot nicer when zoomed out and without all the mess on it I usually put on

IMHO the only really "interesting" TL has already been broken and retested.

For those not believing in TLs, there's also the normal s/r.

I should have a look where I put some of those longer USDJPY term charts eventually, should be fun to see what happens this year.
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Trust price. Know yourself.
Took an intra-day short on USD/JPY at 90.69 break. Next resistance 90.07, 89.88, 89.53. We'll see...
Flat Eric
Those of you who know how I trade will remember I'm not a big proponent of lagging-style indicators.
They repaint, contradict each other and tend to confuse. Price action is my cornerstone.

Every now and then, I'll scan thru a few common and popular indis just to see what the market
is looking at and why it may be reaction a certain way in the very near term, possibly counter trend,
and what caused order-flow to suddenly turn on at the cross of "XYZ".

After all, if a million people see a indicator crossover and start pushing volume that way,
right or wrong it tends to have a noticable effect on how the dealers start quoting prices,
usually just long enough to get retail on the wrong side, but that's part of the game.

Having said all that, here's something I noticed while scan thru.

The rally of the last few weeks and more notable, the last few days, looks like it
could be running out of juice. MACD and Momentum are both moaning, "I'm getting tired".
Not a sell signal by any means, but another pullback is looming in the works,

The week and the month (short month) are nearly over and so a little book squaring
may also be in order. Any way, I offer this:
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What now ?
The Japanese yen is surprisingly still making gains despite the big attempts the Japanese central is making to curb the gains of the yen. But it has not really been successful as Japan aims for a strict inflation target.
Quoting FxJarhead
A snap shot of a current Long scalp of 15 minute chart still in play. 113.00 Long / TS at 113.60 / TP 114.00 UPDATE: 0538am edt / The Snap shot is a bit small, and does not take into acount the larger picture of the trade. Tried to get the chart as clear as possible. I will update a chart and my "thought process" when trade closes, with a bit more detail. {image}
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We're looking for a long term long position towards 118.00.
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Hey Prisha

Do you realize that the post you quoted is more than 11 Year old?
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