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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #79,001
  • Edited 2:39am Nov 10, 2018 2:19am | Edited 2:39am
Quoting SPATrading
{quote} Touch trade was filled. Risk 133€ & targeting the 114.74 price level. Touch trade is highly risky and thus a tight stop loss is vital. Still price did not gave me the chance to break even the trade. {image}
I closed the long touch trade with a small profit since price didn't give me the chance to break even.

Facts with EXISTING DATA on the charts:

Fact 1: All trends are pointing up (Monthly, Weekly). All other time frames will follow...

Fact 2: The critical zone from 113.62 -113.71 is now acting as support and last week closed above.

Fact 3: Buyers weakness to close the price above the primary resistance 114.04ish. The reason that I got out of the touch trade.

Fact 4: Price can do whatever she wants and we have no control over her.
Every so often wrong and sometimes right but always honest. MV
  • #79,002
  • Nov 10, 2018 7:45am Nov 10, 2018 7:45am
USD/JPY closed with bearish tone at 113.80. The price remains above its bullish moving averages but stochasrich is showing strong bearish momentum and RSI has lost directional strength around its mid line. First support zone is located at 113.60 and next one is 113.45. The upside offers resistance at 114.08 and higher at 114.30.
  • #79,003
  • Nov 11, 2018 9:58am Nov 11, 2018 9:58am
Quoting hellsbells
{quote} But what happens next and how does completion of the pattern affect your bullish bias ?? Its a bearish pattern with right top lower than left top.. Have you opened/ closed trades based on it ? Cheer h

Personally, I don't trade Harmonic's, they form, reform and un-form, many times giving false signals, before the main pattern's appear. The bullish bias still prevails but one must remember the market at any time can reverse and breathe. That's what makes USDJPY so great, is that it does just that, goes up some, down some, down some, up some. Even with the Bullish bias, a trader can find his way. Just as an example on the current 4 hour chart, the wicks that formed on friday, seems to me the buyers haven't given up yet.

Then on the 1hr we have a nice flag forming, which gives room for the continuation of the trend. Or price might wanna touch the other side of the channel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #79,004
  • Nov 11, 2018 10:28am Nov 11, 2018 10:28am
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} ...That's what makes USDJPY so great, is that it does just that, goes up some, down some, down some, up some. Even with the Bullish bias, a trader can find his way....{image}
That's interesting you point that out. I actually was having a tough time last week pin pointing if this thing was going up or down, and as soon as I took one position it went the other way.

I hope you are right that this thing is bullish overall. I would like to see a third bounce off this up channel to confirm it -or- if it breaks down, it bounce back at a lower support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #79,005
  • Nov 11, 2018 1:39pm Nov 11, 2018 1:39pm
Quoting warrensapp
{quote} That's interesting you point that out. I actually was having a tough time last week pin pointing if this thing was going up or down, and as soon as I took one position it went the other way. I hope you are right that this thing is bullish overall. I would like to see a third bounce off this up channel to confirm it -or- if it breaks down, it bounce back at a lower support. {image}

Based on what, are you're entries? Many opportunities, last week alone hmmm. Ask yourself how many pips are you looking to make?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #79,006
  • Nov 11, 2018 2:01pm Nov 11, 2018 2:01pm
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} Based on what, are you're entries? Many opportunities, last week alone hmmm. Ask yourself how many pips are you looking to make? {image} {file}

I think i made a lot of key mistakes last week - got emotional, lost patience, and was only looking at the immediate time frame. I think if I held longer and set a wider stop loss or trailing stop I would have had more success.
If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #79,007
  • Nov 11, 2018 2:08pm Nov 11, 2018 2:08pm
Quoting warrensapp
{quote} I think i made a lot of key mistakes last week - got emotional, lost patience, and was only looking at the immediate time frame. I think if I held longer and set a wider stop loss or trailing stop I would have had more success.
Been there done that. Just dont lose sight of your risk management in letting a trade breathe. I remember my brief foray into daily candle trading. You know, oh the most simple trade in the world a daily candle crossed some SMA just after open so i placed my trade with a very large SL and walked away. Naturally it moved against me for about 8 hours unitl I pulled the pin and decided that was not for me !!!!
Its a tricky business!
I'll enter a trade based on 5 min chart and set SL for said 5min chart. If my trade survives even the first 15min I'll then start looking at larger time frames to make exit strategies.
  • #79,008
  • Edited 2:58am Nov 12, 2018 2:46am | Edited 2:58am
Hello anyone home?? This has been a struggle, I have fought the trend today and am well scratched. I did not think the EUR would tank as bad as it has otherwise I would have sold EJ instead. I thought it might find some ticker. Anyway, hoping this stays down, looking for end of hour.. quite unsure about it

NB just TP 1 at 114.000, others BE, looking to be very very bearish hour
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  • #79,009
  • Nov 12, 2018 3:58am Nov 12, 2018 3:58am
see chart for target, i have this sell on the usdjpy.

sorry the target isnot showing on the chart but the target is 113.51
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  • #79,010
  • Nov 12, 2018 4:01am Nov 12, 2018 4:01am
Knock Knock


who's there?


No one.....
  • #79,011
  • Nov 12, 2018 4:06am Nov 12, 2018 4:06am
I just closed me EJ short at 128.25 and I open short on USDJPY at 113.95 instead

I really think EJ should go down but honestly eurusd reached to some critical support area and EJ might be risky to hold.

so the best option is to hold USDJPY short instead of other jpy pairs hummmm

my target in USDJPY is between 107 to 110 I will decide later
  • #79,012
  • Nov 12, 2018 9:54am Nov 12, 2018 9:54am
Quoting hellsbells
Knock Knock who's there? No one.....
Thread can be rather dead at times can't it.

Anyway I'm still a buyer, plenty of USD demand to buy now and sell higher. It is an interesting set-up though, somethings going on here but for now it seems stable.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #79,013
  • Nov 12, 2018 11:41am Nov 12, 2018 11:41am
Fact 1: Last week breakthrough and closed above the primary monthly resistance 113.67-ish & secondary monthly resistance 113.64-ish. The levels are acting now as supports.

Fact 2. Sellers are nowhere to be found with EXISTING data on the chart.

Fact 3. All main trends of weekly and monthly are bullish.

Calculated risk attempt where I touched traded the critical level having in my mind always that price can do whatever she wants…
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Every so often wrong and sometimes right but always honest. MV
  • #79,014
  • Nov 12, 2018 12:17pm Nov 12, 2018 12:17pm
After the USD/JPY pair has set fresh 1-month high, now is trying to retain the 114.00 level. The four hour time frame is showing that the pair continues trading well above its 100-day and 200-day SMAs and both are gaining ground just modestly, some 100 pips below the current level. Technical indicators in the same chart ease within positive levels, the Momentum at fresh daily lows and the RSI barely easing from overbought territory with last one limiting the downside potential. Bulls and bears are now battling for dominance. Should the pair lose the 113.85, the immediate support, bears will take control and the pair could extend its retracement then, down to 113.40. Above the mentioned high, on the other hand, the pair has room to extend its advance up to 114.54, the October monthly high.
  • #79,015
  • Nov 12, 2018 1:59pm Nov 12, 2018 1:59pm
I'm not expecting much before midday here ( sydney time) so I'm going to be brave and leave my short and go for a paddle, and reasses with Japan open. EUR still has no ticker
  • #79,016
  • Edited 3:10pm Nov 12, 2018 2:53pm | Edited 3:10pm
Short taken @ 133.89. SL 144.03 TP 133.49

EDIT - scalp for 16 pips. Getting too late for me.. enough for today.
  • #79,017
  • Nov 12, 2018 5:02pm Nov 12, 2018 5:02pm
I'm bullish that this will work its way towards its previous top - in the 114.5XXX vicinity.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #79,018
  • Nov 12, 2018 5:11pm Nov 12, 2018 5:11pm
Watching this closely - 3m chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #79,019
  • Edited 8:04pm Nov 12, 2018 6:42pm | Edited 8:04pm
I wasn't expecting such an early drop. I'd like the hour candle to not become a hammer, and to stay below the TL and resistance 113.660ish

The EUR is trying to crawl out of the very deep ditch, good on it, and good work to those long with it.

NB moved my resistance to 113.722, will close my shorts if the hour candle closes above it


Closed my 2 shorts 113.730, unhappy with the hour candles
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  • #79,020
  • Edited Nov 13, 2018 12:56am Nov 12, 2018 9:20pm | Edited Nov 13, 2018 12:56am
Longed EJ, living on the edge.

NB have TP 128.230 and closed trades, finished for the day
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