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Attachments: Trend Trading
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Trend Trading

It's not how many times you get knocked down that counts, it's how many times you get back up.

Inserted Video
Well, I've thought this through. I want to present this final piece that could be called "Let your profits run" as clearly as I can. I don't know how many people will read it or give it a try or stay with it for years like I did to make it work, but if it helps one person to avoid going through the pure hell that I did to get here then it's worth it. So off we go on this grand adventure together.

The first step to letting your profits run is to understand when you are in a good trend. I'll do something I don't normally do and "Cherry Pick" an old chart for instructional purposes, then I'll bring it back home to live real time trading. So here's the "Cherry Picked Chart" for instructional purposes only. It's the Daily Chart of a long running EUR/USD down trend that ran from May 2014 to March 2015. The total pips available in this down trend was about 3300 and if you got half of them you belong to the super trader category. There are three things I want to point out on this cherry picked chart and then I'll move on. So, if you like finding "secrets", here's mine:

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Picking up some speed now. I'm not going to talk much about getting into a trend now, we've already discussed that at length and we can discuss it some more if anyone wants to. This is about letting profits run, a separate subject. We don't want to confuse the two subjects.

If you look at the Daily chart in post 502 above, you will see a couple entry signals at the top left. There may be a third but I didn't look for it, we'll look at entry signals in more detail later. This is about identifying a good trend and staying in it. First we have the PSAR flipping from up trend following (printing below price) to downtrend following (printing above price) and staying in downtrend mode. it stays in down trend mode until the trend completes at the bottom right of the page where it flips back to up trend following. I just like it but it's not required. On the EU down trend chart above in Post 502 the PSAR is in lime green dots with a step setting of 0.0006

Secondly, and this is important, I have plotted a 10 period vs. 50 period exponential Moving Average crossover on the daily chart. Note that it crosses over to down trend mode at a good entry point and stays in the down trend mode the entire length of the down trend. Near the bottom right the 10 period crosses back above the 50 period indicating it's time to exit and take profits. The 10 period EMA is in deep pink and the 50 period EMA is in white.


Finally, something just as important or perhaps even more so, but almost too simple. When we start getting signals that we should exit the trend we confirm the indicators with simple direct price action, the 20 day rule. When the price closes at a value higher than any in the past 20 days, we consider the trend broken and exit. I've marked that countdown with 2 vertical lime green lines.

If you study this chart a while it should be obvious that this was one of the stronger down trends in recent years.

That was the purpose of this presentation, to make sure everyone could see what a good trend looks like and how to "Let your profits run".

Now we'll return to real time live trading. I apologize to anyone who is offended by the presentation of a "cherry picked" chart, but it's a device I needed to use right here. So, back to live trading. Comments? Questions? Discussion? - G
Finally, let's tie all this together. If you look back at post 500 you'll see a live chart of my usual entry trying find a good trend. Stops are set to break even for the moment and price is accelerating upward (Positive second derivative for the math nerds). We went over that 1 Hour chart before and there were no questions about it. Next, I'm looking for a long term trend to follow on the Daily chart as well. So First, here's the 1 Hour chart again.
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And here we flip up to the Daily Chart and look to see if it makes sense to begin following the Daily chart long term trend of the AChf :

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  • Post #506
  • Quote
  • Edited Nov 4, 2018 1:19pm Nov 3, 2018 2:40pm | Edited Nov 4, 2018 1:19pm
Looking above on the AChf Daily chart in post 505 we see the familiar indicator of the 10 EMA crossing above the 50 EMA and the confirming direct price action 20 day rule counting off the highest close in the past 20 days, all confirming the long entry shown in the AChf H1 chart above in post #504. The PSAR hasn't flipped to uptrend on the Daily chart yet, so I didn't draw it for clarity. It will flip if the trend continues, but it's not really important. You will notice, I do actually have TP's set, but they are set at a very high value to catch any unusual spikes in my direction. I'll move them up to higher resistance zones as I trade, to keep them well above normal volatility. I am also running automated trailing stops right now for convenience. Again I have those set fairly wide at about 2ADR but I'll switch to manually set stops running below supports as the trade goes into profit. I tend to widen stops more once I'm in profit. The goal is to never have a temporary retracement take me out of a trade, but to still have some wide stops for emergency purposes. If the trader finds temporary retracements are taking them out of good trades too early, they need to widen their stop method, but don't dare eliminate the stop. That's suicidal. I'll usually exit manually when my indicators say to and direct price action confirms an exit. In a rare case a spike against me will take me out, but by then the meat of the trend is usually over. Will this trend run for days, weeks, months? Will it exit break even or for a tiny bit of profit in the next trading session? Anyone who has that precognition ability doesn't need to learn how to trade. Just go to Vegas and put all your money on the next winning Roulette number over and over till you need to ask for security to escort you to the cage and to your car. Otherwise, find trends, get in them, stay in them until they end, transfer money from your Forex account to your bank account. Repeat as desired. That is the next best thing I know of to make up for my sorely lacking ability in being able to see into the future. Best success to all. - G
Hi G.

Wonderful. I like your Charts which are much clearer for me now because my eyes are not what they used to be - hopefully better once my cataracts are operated. I particularly like your MTF views which help me to get oriented more easily.

I have attached a Gadget that you might like to identify and magnify the Pair and TF name more clearly. It can sit in the upper right corner and be seen from across the room.

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Magnified Symbol & TF on chart.ex4   12 KB | 262 downloads


Best, AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
Quoting AlbinaGrande
Hi G. Wonderful. I like your Charts which are much clearer for me now because my eyes are not what they used to be - hopefully better once my cataracts are operated. I particularly like your MTF views which help me to get oriented more easily. I have attached a Gadget that you might like to identify and magnify the Pair and TF name more clearly. It can sit in the upper right corner and be seen from across the room. {file} Best, AG
That's great AG. Good to hear from you again. Don't skip over the direct price action confirmation. I know it seems all too simple, but it works for me. If this one doesn't work for you, I'd advise trying to find another one based on direct price action. It's just a confirmation of entry/exit. Not an indicator at all. Best success in your trading! - G
EU, after struggle to break round number 1.1400 for a week, on 1 November it was finally breaking the orange trend line, giving hope for buyer,
but it was a false hope. 12 hours later (50 pips) it touching the red trend line and keep falling down breaking the 1.1400 again.
DXY also falling like in my previous post but it stop at 96.50 as expected (but im not expecting this number, just the trendline).
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by analyzing GU, and accidentally drawing this pentagram, im afraid i will summon a demon from hell.
this is over-analyzed and i dont i feel i like it.
But like the EU and the stronk USD, im biased downtrend for all anti US pairs.
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NZD/USD, this may be the wrong trendline drawing due the biased stronk USD.
the dash line is the copy of orange lines below it.
since im not swing trader, the profit only taken where adr or s/r line are visible.
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at the lower timeframe, this pair show downtrend weakness, and the uptrend is forming. Could be the wrong decision to short this, but mm will take care of it (i hope).
"Hope" is dangerous word in trading, trade what you see not what you hope!
Zorn, that's all a bit too complex for me to follow. I try to keep things as simple as I possibly can (but no simpler), so I have less room to make a mistake. I don't have a trade in EU since I haven't gotten a clear entry signal yet. Recent moves up since about Nov 1 break what appeared to be a downtrend since Oct. 16th, so I don't know what to make of it. I agree that you might have gotten carried away a bit on the GU trendlines. I also don't have a position on it, but it looks to be reversing upward from a prior downtrend trend, kinda like the EU. Same for NU. I guess the USD was strong over the last few weeks driving a downtrend in those pairs until it started to weaken a bit this month causing those USD based pairs to appear to reverse back up. Maybe that's a result of the US elections on Tuesday, or maybe not. In any case, if a pair has been trending strong down for a long time and now is reversing up, I probably won't get a signal to trade it for a while. My method is generally very slow to enter. Best success. - G
I've heard more than 1 professional trader say that the 50 SMA line is the buy and sell line. Ok, there is a lot to say about it so I keep it in the back of my mind just like I do the 89 SMA can be a strong S/R. That happens enough that I keep a eye on both of them. The PA is hugging the 50 SMA. it should suggest that it goes down (), however, if it consolidates it could easily continue its upward course. I'm shorting as it goes up. If it goes to far up I will FIFO close some of my earlier pips and reset them at a higher position. Yes I know that I have to profit my loss before I see anything.
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Taigen Profit This Month: na
Quoting Taigen
I've heard more than 1 professional trader say that the 50 SMA line is the buy and sell line. Ok, there is a lot to say about it so I keep it in the back of my mind just like I do the 89 SMA can be a strong S/R. That happens enough that I keep a eye on both of them. The PA is hugging the 50 SMA. it should suggest that it goes down (), however, if it consolidates it could easily continue its upward course. I'm shorting as it goes up. If it goes to far up I will FIFO close some of my earlier pips and reset them at a higher position. Yes I know...
I understand. We have different styles and trading objectives, so it's difficult for me to look at it from your perspective. My method is to never try to predict the future which I'm sure is impossible for me. I believe most systems that try to predict the future either fail or perform poorly over a long period of time. But, of course, that is just my own humble opinion. I simply trade price. So if price is clearly going up I buy and if it's clearly going down I sell. Half the time it's not clear what price is doing, so I do nothing. I don't try to force a trade when price direction isn't clear to me. Even then, I know 60% of the time either I will be wrong, or price will reverse before I can take a good profit out. Maybe it is clear to a more astute trader what price is doing and they can make a trade that I can't and profit from it, or visa versa. And often it depends on your personality. I know many traders that hold a trade from 1 to 3 days and they would take a trade on a shorter timeframe trend than I would and profit from it. That's why it's useless for me to try to advise another that a pair is going to go up or down. It may be going up for 1 to 3 days and down for 1 to 3 weeks. Sorry I can't be of more assistance, but my skills are very limited to longer term trend trading. I can explain just how I do that for good profits, but I've never had any success in other methods. Happy Trading! - G
Quoting Graviton
{quote} I simply trade price. So if price is clearly going up I buy and if it's clearly going down I sell. Half the time it's not clear what price is doing, so I do nothing. I don't try to force a trade when price direction isn't clear to me. Even then, I know 60% of the time either I will be wrong, or price will reverse before I can take a good profit out. Maybe it is clear to a more astute trader... - G
I don't know what you mean by predictive since the second you do a buy or sell you are predicting a certain outcome--up or down. I use indicators that, at most, can only suggest things like momentum, volume, trending, etc. A downtrend line is predictive to the extent is suggests a pattern.

I see retraces and bottoms on a various pattern. I'm either right or I'm wrong. However, I am predicting that it will go one way or the other based on the given indicators. If I'm wrong, it just puts me in a better position. View my multiple positions as an average of one position. My adjusting is simple. If it reaches around the $10 mark against me I simply close and reposition it higher. I'm not chaotically putting in random positions although it may appear that way. It's hard to see but it's no different that risk one unit for a two unit gain or ride. In fact the only difference is I'm averaging my position.
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Taigen Profit This Month: na
Quoting Taigen
{quote} I don't know what you mean by predictive since the second you do a buy or sell you are predicting a certain outcome--up or down. I use indicators that, at most, can only suggest things like momentum, volume, trending, etc. A downtrend line is predictive to the extent is suggests a pattern. I see retraces and bottoms on a various pattern. I'm either right or I'm wrong. However, I am predicting that it will go one way or the other based on the given indicators. If I'm wrong, it just puts me in a better position. View my multiple positions...
OK, if it works for you, that's what counts. I have to work very hard to get into existing trends and stay in them long enough to profit. If anyone has a problem with that, I might could help. Best success. - G
  • Post #515
  • Quote
  • Edited Nov 7, 2018 2:11am Nov 6, 2018 9:40pm | Edited Nov 7, 2018 2:11am
post deleted,
will never post again, thanks and my apologize.
"Hope" is dangerous word in trading, trade what you see not what you hope!
Quoting zorndyke
early analysis 30 minutes before the poll closed for eastern district. {image} this thread is so quiet, guys please post your trend analysis, because i need 2nd,3rd,4th,... opinions
I'll comment on here similarly to what I said to Taigen. Please stay focused on Trend Trading as a discission, not working on your trading specific live pairs. Review what you have done, what G talks about and perhaps give a self-assessment of what you're trying vs what has been discussed already.

Also, please refer to Gravitons comment to you earlier:
"Zorn, that's all a bit too complex for me to follow."

This thread is where people discuss Trend Trading processes, etc. It's not for looking for specific answers to live trade queries to decide go long/short/hold in USD/Jpy right now.

if you want to trade specific pairs and talk about your current choices, II' certainly prefer it if you would go do it in the Interactive Trading section of the forum for your pair.

I don't understand why this is so confusing to some. This is theoretical discussion vs live market "predictions". Sure, use examples, but they can be from yesterday, last week or last year.

Come here to discuss Trend Trading methods, risk assessment, money management, not live trading (IMO).
Quoting zorndyke
early analysis 30 minutes before the poll closed for eastern district. {image} this thread is so quiet, guys please post your trend analysis, because i need 2nd,3rd,4th,... opinions
I'll comment on here similarly to what I said to Taigen. Please stay focused on Trend Trading as a discission, not working on your trading specific live pairs. Review what you have done, what G talks about and perhaps give a self-assessment of what you're trying vs what has been discussed already.

Also, please refer to Gravitons comment to you earlier:
"Zorn, that's all a bit too complex for me to follow."

This thread is where people discuss Trend Trading processes, etc. It's not for looking for specific answers to live trade queries to decide go long/short/hold in USD/Jpy right now. (Although that might be a side-effect of discussions here, which makes your trade decisions easier/clearer).

if you want to trade specific pairs and talk about your current choices, II' certainly prefer it if you would go do it in the Interactive Trading section of the forum for your pair.

I don't understand why this is so confusing to some. This is theoretical discussion vs live market "predictions". Sure, use examples, but they can be from yesterday, last week or last year.

Come here to discuss Trend Trading methods, risk assessment, money management, not live trading (IMO).
I like the 4 hour as you can see the price structure of last week, and how it unfolds this week, the vertical lines on the chart

So many great trends began early last week, as highlighted in yellow, 1- break of Super Trend signal

Potential to add on at 2- break & close above 50 EMA, and 3- break of weekly high

Strange, I can't find any good discussion on SuperTrend systems or a thread

Maybe I will start one but then they will want more indicators



darn, internet is so crap slow, can't even upload a chart look at GBPJPY, maybe later, sorry
If you trade like me, you'll be homeless and broke within a week.
Texas-2-Step Return This Week: na
Quoting Graviton
It's not how many times you get knocked down that counts, it's how many times you get back up. https://youtu.be/YDSwwEeF_K8

Very true so long as you can get up again.

We should all try to make learning lessons cheap!
Here is the chart, finally uploaded

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Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-11-07_20-26-38.png Size: 69 KB
If you trade like me, you'll be homeless and broke within a week.
Texas-2-Step Return This Week: na
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