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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #78,781
  • Oct 30, 2018 3:25pm Oct 30, 2018 3:25pm
Uptrend is in the forecast. A completed Head and Shoulders on the 27 has started the short term uptrend

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  • #78,782
  • Edited 4:54pm Oct 30, 2018 3:50pm | Edited 4:54pm
Quoting Geppy
Hey all, I did this video last night on USDJPY and would love to hear thoughts: https://www.cryptocambist.com/cash-i...eading-higher/

good technical video, but it was not short
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #78,783
  • Oct 30, 2018 7:11pm Oct 30, 2018 7:11pm
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} good technical video, but it was not short
Didn't say it was
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #78,784
  • Oct 30, 2018 7:12pm Oct 30, 2018 7:12pm
yes I know this is UJ thread but EJ thread dead. EJ had daily hammer a few days ago, and having a good crack at trying to break up.
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  • #78,785
  • Oct 30, 2018 7:12pm Oct 30, 2018 7:12pm
Quoting warrensapp
{quote} Surprisingly - very easy for me to understand. I am also starting to see what you are pointing out about the correlation between U.S. Equities and the USD/JPY - very interesting. I am bullish on both. 2019 could shape up to be a nice year for the USD and Equities (even with a raise in interest rates).
Glad to hear it.

I'm not at all bullish equities. I think we're seeing cracks and we'll see a larger selloff at some point in the not too distant future.

Time will tell of course.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #78,786
  • Oct 30, 2018 7:33pm Oct 30, 2018 7:33pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Glad to hear it. I'm not at all bullish equities. I think we're seeing cracks and we'll see a larger selloff at some point in the not too distant future. Time will tell of course.
I think it depends on equity I guess - I'm optimistic on a few plays I have in mind.

How are you feeling about USD/JPY going into the beginning of this session?

If it gets back down to 112.9ish, im closing my position and taking profits.
If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #78,787
  • Oct 30, 2018 7:39pm Oct 30, 2018 7:39pm
Quoting warrensapp
{quote} I think it depends on equity I guess - I'm optimistic on a few plays I have in mind. How are you feeling about USD/JPY going into the beginning of this session? If it gets back down to 112.9ish, im closing my position and taking profits.
I don't think it depends on equities much at all. I explained that in last night's video. USDJPY has been grinding higher even while equities have been moving lower. If equities can continue to rally that will only help USDJPY move even higher.

I just posted another video: https://www.cryptocambist.com/luckil...traight-lines/

FB disappointed on earnings but rallied after the conference call. That's a good sign for a continued bounce in equities tomorrow. I'm staying long USDJPY but more details in the (shorter) video above.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #78,788
  • Edited 9:46pm Oct 30, 2018 9:02pm | Edited 9:46pm
BOJ statement shouldn't have much of an impact but I guess traders are waiting for it before we retrace back to 112.60. Short at 113.20 as 61.8% retracement level held, but I could see this moving up to 113.55 peak this week before a much needed pullback lower. Would advise against anyone hoping this will crank out a bit more on the long side, we're already 155 pips up this week already and the risk/reward ratio is not too attractive.
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  • #78,789
  • Oct 30, 2018 9:18pm Oct 30, 2018 9:18pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I don't think it depends on equities much at all. I explained that in last night's video. USDJPY has been grinding higher even while equities have been moving lower. If equities can continue to rally that will only help USDJPY move even higher. I just posted another video: https://www.cryptocambist.com/luckil...traight-lines/ FB disappointed on earnings but rallied after the conference call. That's a good sign for a continued bounce in equities tomorrow. I'm staying long USDJPY but more details in the (shorter) video...
SP500 daily is approaching the top of the downward trendline and the strong bearish trend looks likely to hold as long as we're below 100 and 200 daily MAs. I see the current UJ move up as a retracement from the recent low at 111.4. Could see us hitting 114 in the near term but unlikely to break through the daily downward trendline from June 2015 currently below 115, which should hold up much stronger than the upward trendline we bounced off from march 2018.
  • #78,790
  • Oct 30, 2018 9:19pm Oct 30, 2018 9:19pm
Up up up up
  • #78,791
  • Oct 30, 2018 9:44pm Oct 30, 2018 9:44pm
Quoting Thiagorosa
Up up up up
To clarify my view, the daily wave 3 has begun, IMO.

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  • #78,792
  • Oct 30, 2018 10:12pm Oct 30, 2018 10:12pm
I don't think this looks up and away, looks like warning, warning to me. 3 candle reversal. I closed my EJ longs, met my daily profit target, I just see some weakness now
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  • #78,793
  • Edited 11:47pm Oct 30, 2018 10:31pm | Edited 11:47pm
That diagonal red TL based on hour candles, we have a lower high so far for this hour. Could be some bear time coming. Worth a couple of test shorts with tight SL
NB shifted my SL, trades still in play. Removed that TL, simply have resistance at 113.243. SL now in play for break above there.

NB, just closed both shorts for a few dollars profit. Whatever it's going to do, it's not doing it yet.It found support and volume with the last 5min candle. Think I'm finished for the day. Good Luck
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  • #78,794
  • Oct 31, 2018 12:08am Oct 31, 2018 12:08am
Quoting hellsbells
That diagonal red TL based on hour candles, we have a lower high so far for this hour. Could be some bear time coming. Worth a couple of test shorts with tight SL NB shifted my SL, trades still in play. Removed that TL, simply have resistance at 113.243. SL now in play for break above there. NB, just closed both shorts for a few dollars profit. Whatever it's going to do, it's not doing it yet.It found support and volume with the last 5min candle. Think I'm finished for the day. Good Luck {image} {image}
I put in a stop for 113.213.

I'm also finished for the day - not sure what's going to happen, hopefully it keeps going up.
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #78,795
  • Oct 31, 2018 12:21am Oct 31, 2018 12:21am
115 I reckon
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #78,796
  • Oct 31, 2018 1:11am Oct 31, 2018 1:11am
based on Elliott waves scenario the area between 113.34 to 113.85 its a sell area. with a stop loss the high at 114.54

but I am not shorting. I want to see the daily close first
  • #78,797
  • Oct 31, 2018 1:38am Oct 31, 2018 1:38am
Quoting msniper
based on Elliott waves scenario the area between 113.34 to 113.85 its a sell area. with a stop loss the high at 114.54 but I am not shorting. I want to see the daily close first
(Ended up not being able to sleep...Been glued to watching this chart)

I exited at 113.270. I'm ok with that, made plenty of profit and took it. I am seeing a double top here and a price drop below the supporting trend line.
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #78,798
  • Oct 31, 2018 1:47am Oct 31, 2018 1:47am
Quoting warrensapp
{quote} (Ended up not being able to sleep...Been glued to watching this chart) I exited at 113.270. I'm ok with that, made plenty of profit and took it. I am seeing a double top here and a price drop below the supporting trend line. {image}
this double top might be a triangle and will push price to 113.50~13.80 area before the big drop
  • #78,799
  • Oct 31, 2018 2:02am Oct 31, 2018 2:02am
Quoting msniper
{quote} this double top might be a triangle and will push price to 113.50~13.80 area before the big drop
Our triangle did not hold. I think if it crawls back up to resistance again, there is a chance it will bounce back down.

Just my best guess.
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #78,800
  • Oct 31, 2018 2:04am Oct 31, 2018 2:04am
Quoting warrensapp
{quote} Our triangle did not hold. I think if it crawls back up to resistance again, there is a chance it will bounce back down. Just my best guess. {image}
as long 113 is holding I still see UJ making new highs. this triangle is so small and will have only small targets and effects

and to get the 100% confirmation that the top is in place its when we see 112.65 is broken
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