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Trend Trading

  • #421
  • Oct 18, 2018 12:15pm Oct 18, 2018 12:15pm
Hi G, understand that you have been succesfully applying this trading method you share to us. Speaking of your entries, you said that a crossover is your signal. My question is why not a first pullback after crossover? or did you do that? cmiiw. Thanks.
  • #422
  • Edited 11:14pm Oct 18, 2018 5:30pm | Edited 11:14pm
Quoting dscap
Hi G, understand that you have been succesfully applying this trading method you share to us. Speaking of your entries, you said that a crossover is your signal. My question is why not a first pullback after crossover? or did you do that? cmiiw. Thanks.
Hi Dscap, I always wait until price is moving in my direction to enter. If it's in a pull back, I'll wait until it finishes before I enter. If it's already going in my direction, I'll just enter. I don't wait for a pullback because if price is already moving in my direction, I'm about as likely to miss some pips waiting as I am to have perfect timing on the end of a pull back for entry. I really can't say how much difference it makes, but that seems to work well for me. This is the sort of thing you can carefully test out if you are good at programming. Anything else? - G
  • #423
  • Oct 21, 2018 4:04pm Oct 21, 2018 4:04pm
Last week I had a few small losses and one smaller win. That's just the way it was supposed to work. As long as I can keep my losses small, when the big win comes along it can cover the losses and leave pips for profits. There is no way to know how many losing weeks I will have in a row. The most I have had was three, followed by one of my best winning weeks ever. So, I wait patiently and stick to my system. As usual, I'll start looking for new trades a couple hours after NY opens and all the news has been digested by the markets. It's good for traders to consider that there is no system that can win over the long term and win consistently every week or every month as well. We get to chose which we want, winning consistently every week or month and blowing up at the end and losing everything, or suffering major swings of large wins and large drawdowns along the way to be profitable at the end. If someone want's to check on that, ask an investor in one of the most consistently profitable funds in recent history, run by Bernie Madoff. Best success to all. - G
  • #424
  • Oct 23, 2018 8:19pm Oct 23, 2018 8:19pm
Thank you for sharing your method of trading. I trade inside bar fours on the majors, not easy because of the draw down but from backtesting the last 3 years of data on mt4 very profitable if you stick to the system. I believe that is the key. Just as james 996 and pinman said on jaroos thread that there is going to be times where you do everything right and you still will not make money. That is how the market works. But as james 996 says if you stick with your backtested method in the end you will be profitable. I have tried every other way possible that I know of to try and reduce losses but in the end I keep coming back to the fact that you will face losses and money management is the key. Hope you continue posting.
  • #425
  • Edited 11:06am Oct 24, 2018 10:07am | Edited 11:06am
Quoting mjknight72
Thank you for sharing your method of trading. I trade inside bar fours on the majors, not easy because of the draw down but from backtesting the last 3 years of data on mt4 very profitable if you stick to the system. I believe that is the key. Just as james 996 and pinman said on jaroos thread that there is going to be times where you do everything right and you still will not make money. That is how the market works. But as james 996 says if you stick with your backtested method in the end you will be profitable. I have tried every other way possible...
Hi MJ, I'm glad you found something that works for you. Since you've been doing this for a while now, you've already discovered that the big knob to turn to control drawdowns is trade position size. There are lots of little things that can marginally help, but nothing works like controlling position size. Essentially, if you reduce your trade size by 1/2 you reduce your drawdowns by 1/2, all other things being equal. I don't try to force big wins out of small market moves with large positions. I just wait patiently in the tall grass usually for days and sometimes for weeks for a big market move to occur, and then pounce with my small position size pyramiding system. Of course, reducing position size also reduces profits so there is a balance there, but I'm generally risk adverse so I'd prefer to get rich slowly rather than go broke quickly. Good to hear from you. Thanks for the post! - G
  • #426
  • Oct 24, 2018 10:45am Oct 24, 2018 10:45am
Last night I received a gift while I slept. I entered a GCad short with a 3 to 1 reward to risk ratio and it hit the TP this morning before I woke up. I could say I was lucky, but there's nothing lucky about purposefully choosing a 3 to 1 reward to risk ratio that will cover all last weeks losses. As they say, luck is when preparation meets opportunity. For those who like pretty colors, here's a live chart of a 2 trade EU short I have running. As usual, the second trade on the stack (the one on bottom for this short) is 60% of the base trade. Any comments, discussion? - G

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  • #427
  • Edited 12:22pm Oct 24, 2018 12:03pm | Edited 12:22pm
This GCad short is the gift that keeps on giving. Now running a 3 trade stack on it. 2nd trade is 60% of first. Third trade is 30% of first. Just letting profits run. This is a discussion thread so please feel free to pitch in comments, suggestions, questions, complaints? Lunchtime! - G
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  • #428
  • Oct 24, 2018 2:46pm Oct 24, 2018 2:46pm
Quoting Graviton
This GCad short is the gift that keeps on giving. Now running a 3 trade stack on it. 2nd trade is 60% of first. Third trade is 30% of first. Just letting profits run. This is a discussion thread so please feel free to pitch in comments, suggestions, questions, complaints? Lunchtime! - G {image}
Beautiful G. Best, AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #429
  • Oct 24, 2018 4:21pm Oct 24, 2018 4:21pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
{quote} Beautiful G. Best, AG
Thanks AG, here's another live 3 stacked trade, AJ short. Same stuff, different pair. Hoping to ride one a little further soon for a big win to pay for all past losses and leave some profit. We'll see:

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  • #431
  • Oct 24, 2018 8:10pm Oct 24, 2018 8:10pm
Hey G how did you come upon your method? Did you back test all 28 pairs or decide on your method of trading and forward test?
  • #432
  • Oct 25, 2018 1:50am Oct 25, 2018 1:50am
Fair?
  • #433
  • Oct 25, 2018 1:52am Oct 25, 2018 1:52am
quote=tyrakay;11623663]{quote} ... So you made many trades last weeks (I presume from your description), but you generated loss for that week. Then you waited half of this week (presumably making more losses or break even trades as your method would do), till this ONE, savior trade managed to bail you out from your long string on losses. If yes, than indeed you were lucky to be in temporary more volatile market. Otherwise, you would have this week also losses and if the current period would be chopping quater or two, then perhaps many weeks more. Is that fair description? [/quote]

Fair? I'm not concerned about fair. Fair is something I take my grand kids to for cotton candy and carnival rides. Of course, if we leave out the winning trades, AJ, EU and GCad short, the remaining trades would be losers. If I had my choice, I'd leave out the losers, but we don't get that choice. If I had traded during periods when my system said not to, I would have had no edge, no trend to exploit, and probably had fewer winners to overcome losers. - G
  • #435
  • Oct 25, 2018 1:01pm Oct 25, 2018 1:01pm
Quoting mjknight72
Hey G how did you come upon your method? Did you back test all 28 pairs or decide on your method of trading and forward test?
MJ, it has been a very long journey for me. I suppose I was a bit of a slow learner. I wasted a lot of time and money trying to follow trading systems that others swore by. I have traded many different instruments and carried some of those techniques over into Forex trading. For instance, the pyramiding of trades was brought over from my commodity futures trading account. I backtested many different methods and read all the most popular trading books. Many of my conclusions were reached through backtesting by me and by others who specialize in that sort of thing. For me, it wasn't as though a light bulb just switched on. Over a very long period of study, backtesting and forward testing in a live account, creating rules and learning to follow them, my results went from very negative, to slightly negative, to about break even, to positive. As many others have said, the psychology of trading was half the journey. I still struggle with it at times. Every day I'm internally reminding myself, cut losses small, let profits run, follow the trend, until it bends.

I've never claimed my methods will work for everyone, or that others haven't discovered methods that work better for them. If someone is able to incorporate any aspect of my experience to save themselves a lot of time and money, then that's worth our effort. For instance, I've said I only risk 0.5% of my account balance per trade. That was a hard lesson for me to learn and it cost years of lifespan and a lot of hard earned capital. I suspect others don't advise that to new traders because they didn't travel the same road as I did, but it works for me. Maybe blowing out at least one account and wasting many years of lifespan trying to count waves is just a rite of passage into this business. I believe information I received from generous experienced traders helped move me along my journey and I don't think I could have made it to where I am without that help. I'm not selling anything here. If any of my ideas help, that's great. If not, then move on and seek answers elsewhere. That's the best advice I can give. - G
  • #436
  • Oct 25, 2018 3:33pm Oct 25, 2018 3:33pm
I've discussed this issue before, there is a big difference between simple and easy. For instance, it's simple to lose weight. We can sum it up in three simple words. Just don't eat. It's not easy however and people spend billions trying the latest fad diet and are still more obese than ever. It's very simple, but for most it's not easy. Trading for a living is never really going to be easy. There are probably many pitfalls that can wipe out an account that haven't even ever occurred. Before the dot com bubble, that specific pitfall had never occurred, so it's not surprising many who had been successful for years suddenly crashed and burned from something they never saw coming.

In my experience, anyone who represents professional trading as easy has some sort of hidden agenda. However, trading can at least be made simple, if one chooses to pursue that as a goal. As Albert Einstein said, "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler." I examine every aspect of my trading to find things that are unnecessary or that can be done simpler while producing essentially the same results. I've tried to lay out my system here as simply as I possibly could. Long ago, almost all my trading was purely discretionary. Now, I try to set rules and abide by them except when I have very good reason, beyond emotions, to break them. Anytime I choose to break one of my trading rules, it must be done only after careful consideration and thought and it's only done when the reward clearly outweighs the risk. My goal these days is to keep my trading as mechanical and rule based as possible.

This has been a good opportunity for me to narrow my rule set and present it to others for scrutiny and comment. In some cases, I really had to look deep into my reasoning for doing what I do and it has definitely influenced my trading for the better. I'll check back in from time to time and if I can be of assistance, please feel free to call on me. I'd like to thank all those who participated in this discussion and I wish everyone the greatest of success. - Graviton
  • #437
  • Oct 25, 2018 6:32pm Oct 25, 2018 6:32pm
Quoting Graviton
I've discussed this issue before, there is a big difference between simple and easy. For instance, it's simple to lose weight. We can sum it up in three simple words. Just don't eat. It's not easy however and people spend billions trying the latest fad diet and are still more obese than ever. It's very simple, but for most it's not easy. Trading for a living is never really going to be easy. There are probably many pitfalls that can wipe out an account that haven't even ever occurred. Before the dot com bubble, that specific pitfall had never occurred,...
Yeah, I always say to people that this is hard work. The pain simply never stops, no matter the years of experience.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #438
  • Oct 26, 2018 2:43pm Oct 26, 2018 2:43pm
New to this post but have always viewed forex as a great place to trend trade whether short term or long. Usually I base my trend on the daily but sometimes the 4 hour. I'm slowly learning that my position must be relative to my account size. I have blown many accounts and felt that it was getting rather old so I decided to learn from my mistakes. Anyway I have two baby accounts and am starting over again...

I'm in right now GU. It looks like it has hit a bottom of sorts so I'm positioning lots of 2 in micro pips. Got about a dozen positions as it continued to go against me (which I like at the beginning) I position usually between 12 to 24 pips but not always. If it does a double bottom, it strengthens my conviction that I hit bottom. There is a lower bottom from July 2018. Guess I'll see what happens.
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Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #439
  • Oct 26, 2018 8:38pm Oct 26, 2018 8:38pm
Quoting Taigen
New to this post but have always viewed forex as a great place to trend trade whether short term or long. Usually I base my trend on the daily but sometimes the 4 hour. I'm slowly learning that my position must be relative to my account size. I have blown many accounts and felt that it was getting rather old so I decided to learn from my mistakes. Anyway I have two baby accounts and am starting over again... I'm in right now GU. It looks like it has hit a bottom of sorts so I'm positioning lots of 2 in micro pips...
Hi Taigen. Well, I'd stay with it as long as it's headed down in your direction. How much are you willing to give back if it turns around and heads up against you? - G
  • #440
  • Oct 27, 2018 11:10am Oct 27, 2018 11:10am
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Hi Taigen. Well, I'd stay with it as long as it's headed down in your direction. How much are you willing to give back if it turns around and heads up against you? - G

I would have but got turned up side down. Two months later I was able to get out without too much damage. I could have made some serious coin if I stayed in but when stuck in a currency pair for that long, I'm no longer a trader but a nailbiter. Since I'm doing micro pips when my first position is at a $10 loss, I get out and replace in a better position but realizing I have to make that $10 up again before I see green.

My GU position is a good example. It's not at the bottom if I compare to the July 2018 PA. If you see how I trade you will notice the bad positions will eventually be replace with positions closer to the July 2018. A double bottom is usually a good sign and will build cautiously from there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Taigen Profit This Month: na
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