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Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

  • #321
  • Oct 3, 2018 7:07am Oct 3, 2018 7:07am
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  • #322
  • Oct 3, 2018 7:09am Oct 3, 2018 7:09am
MYTH: EURUSD goes up if demand exceeds supply.

REALITY: EURUSD goes up if DM is long, there stops are above the price, SM Algos did the pre-run-counter move down and go for the main run.



Think about that.

Then think again.

You can observe the progression of these things EVERY DAY in my thread!

Stay safe,
FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #323
  • Oct 3, 2018 7:53am Oct 3, 2018 7:53am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} oh man, you crazy little boy. that really hard to see this bullshit now, after i told you , look at exactly this mistake! i told you exactly why you are wrong when you speak about metatrader and now you even mention metatrader, and you still dont check it,. learn the basics, now i know you are a big liar about many you speak about and you fake a lot of your experience (noone has this low knowledge about limitorders normally as a trader of live accounts), you even dont know what you speak about when i tell your mistake in detail before you...
seriously man, get a life... you do not have a clue about anything.. wow
supply & demand is a farce !
  • #324
  • Oct 3, 2018 8:26am Oct 3, 2018 8:26am
Quoting FractalFreak
MYTH: EURUSD goes up if demand exceeds supply. REALITY: EURUSD goes up if DM is long, there stops are above the price, SM Algos did the pre-run-counter move down and go for the main run.
What else would you expect?

The bankers are there, for us, when we want to sell 50,000 USD for euros. They do the transaction instantly. There are zillion transactions like this one happening every day. This is the real everyday forex.

Do we have to wait for a buyer of our 50k USD to appear? No?

What if we had to? After how many days/weeks/months we would be able to exchange the 50k USD into euros, if Mr. Banker was not there for us?

Let Mr. Banker make profits on the risks taken. I find it fair.

Just try to be in the constantly 30% winning orders, because if you happen to be in the 70% constantly losing orders, you will sponsor Mr. Banker in his efforts of helping other guys like you and me, who need to exchange currencies, just like we all need it, at the local branch...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #325
  • Oct 3, 2018 8:32am Oct 3, 2018 8:32am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} What else would you expect? The bankers are there, for us, when we want to sell 50,000 USD for euros. They do the transaction instantly. There are zillion transactions like this one happening every day. This is the real everyday forex. Do we have to wait for a buyer of our 50k USD to appear? No? What if we had to? After how many days/weeks/months we would be able to exchange the 50k USD into euros, if Mr. Banker was not there for us? Let Mr. Banker make profits on the risks taken. I find it fair. Just try to be in the constantly 30% winning...
the world without banks
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  • #326
  • Oct 3, 2018 8:37am Oct 3, 2018 8:37am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} What else would you expect? The bankers are there, for us, when we want to sell 50,000 USD for euros. They do the transaction instantly. There are zillion transactions like this one happening every day. This is the real everyday forex. Do we have to wait for a buyer of our 50k USD to appear? No? What if we had to? After how many days/weeks/months we would be able to exchange the 50k USD into euros, if Mr. Banker was not there for us? Let Mr. Banker make profits on the risks taken. I find it fair. Just try to be in the constantly 30% winning...
What else would you expect? ------ such a simple yet loaded question. Here's what I expect! A even-leveled playing field where traders can truly compete with completely transparency of data coming to and across all exchange participants in a fair and regulated manner for the little guys to have just a tiny little chance to SUCCEED.... and not spend decades of their lives scratching their bald head thinking "what just happened".

If there is no transparency, you are just another blind helping the blind getting out of quick sand and we all know the end result of that. Besides all of the above, the real structure of the "pair" of two currencies in itself has a conflict of interest on every tick.... think about it. There is just no amount of analysis that will work with consistency over the long haul. The only tool we have at our disposal is aligning ourselves with the fundamentals of currency strength, lower the margin and trade momentum/volatility. Everything else is just a hit or a miss i.e. speculation i.e. gambling i.e click click and see what happens with the hopes that your broker or LP as a counterparty will have some sincerity with a dose of generosity to let you win once in a while, grow your account once in a while only to take you out eventually. This is NOT a fair game for us to be in. It's about time we realize and MOVE TO FUTURES~!
Staying in my lane...
  • #327
  • Oct 3, 2018 8:54am Oct 3, 2018 8:54am
Quoting VEEFX
we realize and MOVE TO FUTURES~!
I am not familiar how futures work in detail and cannot comment anything about these instruments.

What I am 100% sure is, they use exactly the same price application on all trading instruments, including the futures. And this is the real enemy - the price app. This is the biggest of all problems.

My small advice to you, moving from EURUSD to Gold or moving from FX to futures will not change anything, cause their price algo is simply so hard to brake... it is nearly impossible to do so.

The only weakness I have managed to find, for 5 years dedicated hard work and now nearly 220k invested so far (over -150k for development) is the timing. They time-weight the average price. You see the average price as a neutral, but it is not. It has very heavy time-weighting. Everything else I have tried - they always win. Sooner or later, they win. However, that is not the case with the time-weighting. I win there, just because I copy their timing...

That is about me. Maybe you have found your missing piece of the puzzle? If you had already - you won't have any worries with the futures.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #328
  • Oct 3, 2018 9:05am Oct 3, 2018 9:05am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} I think so, too. Otherwise nobody would make money (imho). However, I've never seen a explanatory proof (thus, the assumption of 50 % which may be even true most of the time although sometimes the market can be more deterministic). Maybe you may show one.
In my opinion it is very hard to get more than 1 to 1 Ratio in a single trade.( Day trading )
There are too much resistance support zone in a single day.
Even a very clear pattern, because if your stop is too small it will be killed in a smaller scale.

When you get more than 1/1 R/R it may be luck because the next range manipulation go in your favour.
Every range is manipulated as well.
  • #329
  • Oct 3, 2018 9:33am Oct 3, 2018 9:33am
"but: you are the one who is blind, how can you be sucessfull with total not open minded, with total wrong bacis learned, with no knowledge about good brokers (you fake only lmax has true limit orders...), you even dont know that any retail can be liquity provider..... i dont know where to begin to listen your mistakes... and this only in this posts... unbelieveable fail my friend.

you see yourself , your knowledge is extrem limited, at least learn learn learn!!!! and dont talk about facts you really have no plan about! you really misleading here people and cross facts with other facts with no connection (fxcm courtcase is your evidence ANY broker without lmax is doing exactly this way and prove this with collecting in metattrader because you hjave no plan and are unexperienced??? really??

you should really learn very fast about what is metarader and his parts and what are good brokers (looks like you have big problems here). this would imporve the discussion a lot, and not always neccessary to correct your mistakes.
some bascis what you write are correct , but you mix it with so wrong conclusions from this basics and so wrong facts, thats crazy misleading."



Oh yes dukas_TROLL,

quickly tell everyone HOW GREAT THE BROKER IS THAT PAYS YOU,

and HOW BAD OTHER BROKERS (THEIR COMPETITORS) ARE....


YOUR PUPPET MASTERS will like it and send you the monthly EUR 250.

SHAME!

FF
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  • #330
  • Oct 3, 2018 9:37am Oct 3, 2018 9:37am
"
Do we have to wait for a buyer of our 50k USD to appear? No?
What if we had to? After how many days/weeks/months we would be able to exchange the 50k USD into euros, if Mr. Banker was not there for us?
Let Mr. Banker make profits on the risks taken. I find it fair."


MZ,

well, you have a point.

See my posts about that.

Without the proven manipulation, FX would NOT be as liquid, as cheap to trade, as accessible.......

It is a bit more complex than saying "oh, all these big bad banks etc."

read the first page of my thread........

Stay safe,
FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #331
  • Oct 3, 2018 10:38am Oct 3, 2018 10:38am
Quoting FractalFreak
Without the proven manipulation, FX would NOT be as liquid, as cheap to trade, as accessible....... It is a bit more complex than saying "oh, all these big bad banks etc." read the first page of my thread........ Stay safe, FF
The bankers are not doing anything wrong.

There are 70% buys and 30% sells.

The price will go down in 70% of the time.

In the other 30% of the time, it will go up, together with the majority of orders.

All bankers will go bankrupt, if they have to pay, most of the time, the buyers (in this example).

I do not see any problems with what they are doing.

It is quite the opposite, actually: I thank them all, from the bottom of my heart, for this wonderful opportunity (to trade Gold in precise). Thank you for the business! (bow)
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #332
  • Oct 3, 2018 12:00pm Oct 3, 2018 12:00pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} I am not familiar how futures work in detail and cannot comment anything about these instruments. What I am 100% sure is, they use exactly the same price application on all trading instruments, including the futures. And this is the real enemy - the price app. This is the biggest of all problems. My small advice to you, moving from EURUSD to Gold or moving from FX to futures will not change anything, cause their price algo is simply so hard to brake... it is nearly impossible to do so. The only weakness I have managed to find, for 5 years...
I looked briefly on TWAP and did not find any edge in intraday.... just session open/close volatility worked better for me so unless you are referring to longer time Time weighted (like on monthly or quarterly driven by fundamentals (corporate/business or economic cycles) to taper into extremities). Bottom line is everything is tied to USD even gold, oil, commodities, indexes etc because money flows thru the USD globally. Moving from one market (spot) to another (futures) won't make a difference if one simply don't know how to trade or understand the market dynamics. What I referred to, in particular to USA traders is the limited number of available brokers... just oanda and gain. everything else is unregulated and CANNOT be relied on when it comes to safety of funds. Hence my move to futures.... i will still trade $1000 @ 400:1 but just as a hobby going forward (if need be)

Please share more about your timing.... i have done significant research in this area... quantitatively and watching markets round the clock across 28 pairs... but not gold or CFDs.
Staying in my lane...
  • #333
  • Oct 7, 2018 7:51am Oct 7, 2018 7:51am
Quoting FractalFreak
AntiCre, the BIGGEST MYTH is SUPPLY and DEMAND. In FX, it is ALL ABOUT SM ALGO MARKET MANIPULATION! See here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=768090
you little misleading fraud starter.

you always in any thread promote your scamming.

why you dont tell the people that you are connected to the person who sell this fake scam indicator, that you tried to sell this indicator here but you was very fast exposed.... that you start the old orderbook scam with new fake story around about dm and sm...... that you attack anyone who exposed your fraud and scamming..... that you fake in your videos, that you fake your trade results and trades..... that you have only 5 people in your thread who are beginners and rest already told you how wrong you are and you did kick out all people who are experienced from your thread......

why you dont tell the people you create fake stories to sell later you bullshit.... and that all you can, fake stories and attack anyone who expose your fraud... man, at least you dont be so stupid and fake you have an indicator with all stop orders from all traders inside, Sm and DM... man this old fake was dont so often and tried to sell this garbage useless shit...... only your 5 follower idiots dont know its not this and its simple create data other way with no help in trading and thatswhy you have no wins in trading and want sell your bullshit (ok, after exposed you had to stop your selling plans because noone believed you any more...).

many pages and a whole thread is only about exposing your fraud and scam and how and why you fake your stories and trades..... but this will not stop you from attacking and writing your bullshit and fake stories all the time.

normally forexfactory had to kick you out because of your "only fake " stories and attacking with big fake stories, nothing from you is real or true. any story is with only or big part fake. you even create fake stories about anyone who exposed your activity....

and best, you really tell me i am not nice to you;

- you act like an idiot, calling you idiot is fair, other words would match better, but lets be fair
- you are exposed as scammer, i call you scammer
- you started a fraud, i call you fraud starter
- you faked and cheated a lot, i call you faker and cheater

so easy, dont do this, dont be this liar all the time, and people dont call you by what you are!
  • #334
  • Oct 8, 2018 2:12pm Oct 8, 2018 2:12pm
Quoting DemoForever
{quote} Are you saying FXCM are lying when they tell their customers that there's no negative slippage on limit orders!
Hi DemoForever,

A limit and limit entry order will only execute at the requested price or better and cannot receive negative slippage. FXCM regularly releases execution data on positive/negative slippage so you can judge our execution. Here's the latest slippage data on limit, limit entry, and other order types from 1 January, 2018 to 31 August, 2018.*

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Total orders in the table above is comprised of only the order types listed. Additional stats can be found here.

Jason

*Past performance is not indicative of future results. Data excludes certain types of non-direct clients. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79.79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
  • #335
  • Oct 9, 2018 2:19am Oct 9, 2018 2:19am
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} Hi DemoForever, A limit and limit entry order will only execute at the requested price or better and cannot receive negative slippage. FXCM regularly releases execution data on positive/negative slippage so you can judge our execution. Here's the latest slippage data on limit, limit entry, and other order types from 1 January, 2018 to 31 August, 2018.* {image} Total orders in the table above is comprised of only the order types listed. Additional stats can be found here....
Hi Jason,
Can you explain why/how the open and close orders have much more positive than negative slippage? I would expect the slippage for at-market orders to be evenly distributed.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #336
  • Oct 22, 2018 11:32am Oct 22, 2018 11:32am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Hi Jason, Can you explain why/how the open and close orders have much more positive than negative slippage? I would expect the slippage for at-market orders to be evenly distributed.
Hi PipMeUp,

That's an interesting question . It would require more analysis from our side which I don't have at the moment. But just thinking about this myself, it would depend on market conditions at the time and possibly the behavior of our traders. First, slippage occurs when liquidity is exhausted at the price requested and attempts to fill at the next best available price. If positive slippage occurred more frequently than negative slippage on at market orders, it could indicate to me that it was more likely the orders were placed when the market was moving in the opposite direction that the trader was buying or selling which would increase the likelihood of positive slippage. And we know that retail traders like to fade the market, meaning attempting to catch tops and bottoms. Or maybe the traders are waiting for prices to pull back to get a better price and then the market moves back a little more when the at market order is placed. Just a couple of ideas. So this could be a situation that indicates traders are trading in the opposite direction of price movements increasing the likelihood of positive slippage. I'll mention it to the data team and maybe they can dig further.

Jason
  • #337
  • Jan 3, 2019 9:51am Jan 3, 2019 9:51am
Quoting CrucialPoint
Keep Your Eyes Healthy {quote} {image} I've been sitting in front of the trading screen for 18 years now. And I have been using the computer since 1996. At 38, I have perfect 20/20 vision and can still see/read fonts further than 20ft. This is no accident and it takes work. You need to exercise your eyes. This only applies if you had/have healthy perfect eye sight since you're a child. If you have deformity and certain eye conditions, this doesn't apply to you. No amount of exercise is going to fix your eyes. 1. SCREENS Minimum Full...
Thanks CP. Your research (as always!) is spot on. This is now one of my New Year resolution to improve my eyesight. I realize you are no longer here but want to stop by and offer my thanks. I am going with 32inch Curved Samsung monitor from Costco (bought LG few months back and it sucks so got rid of it).

BTW: the eye exercise you recommended gives me instant pain in my left eye socket (left eye is better than the right eyesight) so there is definitely something weird going on with my eyes.

If anyone has a better option for 32 inch monitor, kindly advice.
Staying in my lane...
  • #338
  • Last Post: Jan 5, 2019 10:46am Jan 5, 2019 10:46am
Quoting AntiCre
I'd like to use this thread to discuss some trading myths and forex maths/statistics that will destroy some concepts that "the gurus" preach day in and day out. Please discuss these myths here with us and back up your words with evidence. The two topics I willl start with are the myth of risk:reward ratios and trading with moving averages. Happy discussion! = TOC ======================================================== Trading myths: The myth of risk:reward ratios Further...
VeeFX: Perspective on Curve Fitting

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post11848961

Posting this here as I know you have a significant grey matter in-between your ears and you will most probably disagree :-
Staying in my lane...
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