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Twelve widely believed forex myths

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  • First Post: Edited Aug 28, 2020 5:17pm Dec 25, 2010 6:46am | Edited Aug 28, 2020 5:17pm
  •  hanover
  • Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,092 Posts
Twenty-seven widely believed forex myths

The following is a summary of my own thoughts, for whatever they're worth, after 13 years of researching and experimenting with FX.

I would have saved myself a significant amount of time and money if I'd understood the following, when I first started out:


Myth # 1. That inverting the signals in a losing strategy must necessarily make it a winning one.
Any strategy that fails to exploit a real market inefficiency is effectively generating random signals. Inverting a random signal generator will only create yet another random signal generator, which will therefore be equally ineffective. Explained in more detail here (Part 1 and Part 2).

To win at any probability based game, (1) the game must have some kind of exploitable bias, AND (2) you must apply a strategy that exploits the bias. A game that's totally random can't be beaten, and even a game that isn't totally random can't be beaten by applying a random (or ineffectual) strategy.


Myth # 2. That MM (and sizing variations, nedging, scaling in/out, etc) in itself can provide a winning edge.
Varying position size is effective only if the larger sizes coincide with winning trades, to achieve which you must already have an edge; otherwise you're merely playing a lucky game of hit or miss. All other forms of MM merely re-balance return and risk, and/or redistribute wins and losses; they don't alter expectancy. No negative expectancy game can be beaten solely by using MM. The attached XLS can be used to demonstrate all of this; PipMeUp has posted a mathematical proof here. Expectancy is improved only by better entries and/or exits.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Martingale comparison.xls   125 KB | 1,816 downloads | Uploaded Oct 22, 2012 9:00pm

Grid systems use arbitrary levels that have no technical basis. Martingale variants (see myth #12) merely accelerate risk of ruin without improving expectancy. Averaging down is justified only to the extent that, in the situations it is used, there is increased probability (commensurate with the increase in exposure) of price reversing with each new entry. Scaling in/out are averaging processes that can smooth a trader's income, but in themselves do not alter expectancy; single level entry/exit methods, if applied consistently over a long enough period of time, provide a similar kind of averaging.

'Recovery' type systems make no sense because (everything else being equal) recent losses have no greater effect on eventual bottom line than any other losses. Moreover, mentally grouping any set of trades as a single entity is merely an arbitrary process that has no bearing on subsequent market behavior or probabilities; each component position creates its own P/L, and must therefore be profitable in its own right to be justifiable. Decisions should be based on current price behavior/probabilities, not on your P/L, which the market takes no cognizance of. More on rescue/recovery trading here.

Nedging ('locking', or 'hedging' buy and sell positions in the same pair) in itself is impotent because every nedge can be replicated by a single net position, and nedging incurs greater transaction costs (swap + spread). The same logic applies to triangular and circular hedges, or 'baskets', which similarly resolve themselves into simpler net positions. More on same-pair hedging here and here.

The primary goals of MM should be (1) preservation of capital, and (2) an even distribution/diversification of risk (i.e. avoiding the possibility of one loss wiping out the gains made by several smaller wins). Increasing position size increases the risk of ruin exponentially. More on position sizing here.

Myth # 2a. That the FIFO rule imposed by NFA makes a difference.
Regardless of which order gets closed first, your remaining net position going forward is the same, and your overall P/L is unaffected. The original entry levels are irrelevant in the sense that you can't change the past.


Myth # 3. That merely being unconventional in one's approach improves one's chances of success.
Only an understanding of underlying market drivers, or at least the chart patterns they produce, can provide any kind of edge. Whether that is 'conventional' or 'unconventional' is moot.

TA provides a window into HOW price has behaved, but it doesn't explain WHY, and to whatever extent it fails to measure either 'fair value' or current sentiment, its predictive capability is limited (more here). All systems, whether fundamental or technical, make the assumption that aspects of price behavior will repeat itself frequently and consistently enough to allow a systematic income to be derived.


Myth # 4. That entries are more important than exits, or vice versa.
Entries and exits are nothing more than vehicles to adjust net position, and are therefore equally important. At any point a trader is either net long, short or flat. All that ultimately matters is how frequently (and heavily) he is net long while price is rising, and net short while it's falling. Or in other words, direction and timing.

P/L occurs between the entry and the exit.

Note on trend-following and quantitative systems: one exception to the above is where (predominantly mechanical) systems are attempting to exploit any 'levy flight' or 'fat tails' that exist within price distribution. In this case, with a strategy that attempts to locate strong 'trends', cut losses quickly and maximize gains while conditions are favorable, the exits assume increased importance. However, the extent to which these exits are able to overcome broker costs in their own right, without some form of entry mechanism and/or instrument selection, is debatable. And it doesn't invalidate the fact that profit is determined by how frequently (and heavily) a trader is net long while price is rising, and net short while it's falling.


Myth # 5. That it's impossible to forecast price direction.
Every trading decision (e.g. entry, exit) ultimately reflects an implicit forecast, or at least a forecast on the basis of probability. The more accurate a trader is at adjusting his position relative to market turns, the more pips he banks. An edge is ultimately the result of ascertaining directional bias, or at least some kind of behavioral bias, at certain occasions in the market, and timing one's entries and/or exits accordingly.

Knowledge and experience in 'reading' the market (in deciding when to enter/exit) is key for a discretionary trader. With a mechanical trader, the 'forecasting' is implicit within his entry/exit rules, that he has already tested, and proven profitable to the point of statistical validity.

Some traders say "I don't make predictions, I simply follow price". "Following price" merely represents an implicit forecast that the current move (as perceived by the trader) will continue. Nonetheless, the current move must end at some future point.


Myth # 6. That taking high RR trades will in itself guarantee success.
Myth #6a. That a high win rate in itself will guarantee success.
Everything else being equal, RR (aka reward-to-risk ratio, payoff ratio, or avg net win to loss size) and win rate operate in inverse proportion to each other, i.e. shooting for higher RR trades will decrease your win rate commensurately, and vice versa. If price movement was a completely random walk, this inverse proportion would be exact and inviolable, and (ignoring costs) ALL trading systems would have a long term expectancy of zero, and consequently their P/L would be nothing more than fortuitous. Hence it's necessary to find an inefficiency — a directional or behavioral bias in price movement — to break this inherent equilibrium, and create a genuine 'edge'.

A strategy of 'cutting losses short' and 'letting profits run' is effective only to whatever extent markets 'trend' (in the situations that it's used). More detail here.

If success was as simple as taking high RR trades, then writing a winning EA would be child's play, and everybody would run one and effortlessly become a trading millionaire.


Myth # 7. That unrealized (floating) P/L is less important than realized (already banked) P/L.
It's easy to show that they're equally important. If you close the floating trade, profit is immediately realized, and you can always open a trade of the same direction and size, after which — apart from the additional spread cost — your entire situation (account equity; exposure to risk; available margin) is identical.

Here's another way of looking at it: no matter what the current P/L of a trade is, then (everything else being equal) approx 50% of the time you'll benefit from keeping the trade open (because your P/L subsequently improves) and 50% of the time you'll benefit from closing it (because your P/L would have subsequently worsened). Hence over a great number of trades, you'll be better off 50% of the time, and worse off 50% of the time, regardless of whether you realize the P/L or not.

It's both fallacious, and dangerous, to believe that a loss is not a loss until an order is closed. That is akin to believing that every trade, if left open for long enough, must eventually yield a profit, which is true only if one has infinite time and capital. If, in the interim, a margin call occurs, all unrealized losses suddenly become very real! Moreover, the money in your account that's available to you at any given time includes floating P/L. (And let's not forget that one of the biggest causes of the current global crisis was banks' ignoring paper losses).

Whether your current position is (say) +100 or -100 shouldn't have any effect on your strategy. The past can't be re-lived, hence the only thing that matters now is what will happen subsequently, and your trading decision(s) should reflect that. Market behavior and probabilities are not going to change because of the P/L of one insignificant retail trader.


Myth # 8. That 'casino based' MM doesn't apply to trading.
MM (bet/position sizing) is pure math, and applies to any speculative activity that generates a distribution of wins and losses. As indeed trading does.

MM can't provide an edge, unless you can establish serial correlation (i.e. the outcomes of consecutive trades are causally dependent), or otherwise find a way of getting the larger positions to coincide with winning trades. See myth #2. The edge can come only from the 'gameplay' that generates the win/loss distribution (in trading that is entries+exits). MM can then be applied to this distribution.


Myth # 9. That using prior profit to offset proposed risk in pyramiding is, in itself, a winning strategy.
You can't use this strategy to beat a casino, and since MM is pure math (see myth #8), it likewise provides no mathematical edge in trading. Pyramiding can work profitably because forex prices trend in a qualitatively different manner to (for example) 'trends' of blacks and reds at roulette, i.e. any edge necessarily lies beyond the MM. This is similar to the 'scaling in' illusion that was addressed earlier: for the subsequent position(s) to be justifiable, they must be on-balance profitable in their own right, otherwise they reduce eventual bottom line, regardless of whether they're being 'funded' by prior wins (the "market's money") or not.

If you see unbanked profit as being expendable (the "market's money"), then you're effectively trading to achieve breakeven, rather than attempting to maximize your profits.


Myth # 10. That exiting either a trade, a session, or a period (e.g. week, month, year) because one is ahead, P/L-wise, will improve one's eventual bottom line.
Unless there's statistical proof that market probabilities are about to become less favorable, quitting merely because you're ahead (to avoid "pushing your luck") is necessarily based on superstitious fear. Everything else being equal, there's a 50/50 probability of your gain increasing or decreasing, just as there is at any other time. Again, market behavior and probabilities are not going to change merely because one insignificant retail trader has had a recent winning or losing streak. Unless serial correlation has been proven statistically, each situation represents either an independently valid opportunity — or not — regardless of the P/L of recent trades.


Myth # 11. That a simple ('KISS') strategy is more likely to be profitable than a more complex one.
To be fair, it depends what is meant by 'simple'. Many simple strategies can be coded as EAs, yet very few EAs are long-term profitable. The decisions made by many expert (discretionary) traders are context-specific, and take a large number of factors into account, and are therefore not necessarily 'simple'.

It's highly unlikely that you'll find a simple, mechanical system that allows you to win consistently, especially in the retail arena. If such a system existed, then everybody would use it -- or something conceptually similar -- and obtain exponential account growth with minimal knowledge, effort or stress. Large institutions could save themselves millions in salaries by dismissing all of their highly paid analysts, economists, veteran traders, math and statistics professors, and IT experts, and replacing them all with this simple system. But FX is a (pseudo)zero sum game: to remain handsomely profitable, you must effectively outwit, outplay and outlast the most knowledgable, experienced and ruthless minds in the industry, all of whom want to take your money, whether by fair means or otherwise. Ultimately then, it's not about systems, but underlying knowledge and hands-on experience: more details here, here, here, here and here. And see myths #22 and #23 below.

Anyway, to state the obvious, how simple or complex a strategy might be, is irrelevant. Risk adjusted return is the ultimate, and universally accepted, goal.


Myth # 12. That some Martingale-based trading systems are superior to others.
The overriding factor behind all Martingale variants is the MM, or specifically the 'death sequence'. No amount of testing can determine (without a prohibitively high amount of statistical error) the likelihood of whether an extremely low probability event will occur sooner, rather than later. From this standpoint, all Martingale systems have an approximately equal probability as to when they will implode, and of course (because of their inherent recovery algo) all of them will remain profitable until that point. Hence all Martingale systems are essentially created equal.

Every Martingale variant aimed at mitigating risk incorporates a tradeoff that has a commensurate downside:

  1. Using a more benign sizing progression (than doubling) cripples the recovery rate, i.e. necessitates >1 winning trade to return to breakeven.
  2. Limiting the number of progression steps does likewise (e.g. if we cap the number of steps at 5, then it takes 31 wins @ 1 unit, instead of just 1 win @ 32 units, to recover from 5 consecutive losses).
  3. Starting the progression with a tiny position size (to allow room for more doubling steps) reduces return in exactly the same proportion.
  4. Withdrawing money as insurance against the death trade reduces the funds needed to accommodate a given number of progression steps (and of course there's no guarantee that the death trade won't occur before the withdrawal). And if position size is based on account equity, then it will lower future returns also.

Another widely believed myth is that progressive staking systems can somehow improve overall expectancy (see rebuttal in myth #2). The mathematical reality is that they merely create a higher average bet/position size, which (exponentially) increases risk of ruin. The longer you trade using martingale, the greater the risk of encountering the 'death sequence'.

If you have a already have a strategy (entries+exits) that delivers positive expectancy, then martingale will not improve it; and if you don't have such a strategy, then martingale will not provide it. Or to put it simply, it's better to trade profitably and safely, than profitably with unnecessarily high risk.


[EDIT] Added some more myths......


Myth # 13. That a good system should be able to be transplanted onto a different timeframe, and still remain profitable.
Markets may be 'fractal' to some extent, but the price patterns on longer timeframes are qualitatively different to those on shorter ones. This is likely caused by factors like macroeconomics, cross section of participants, greater collective averaging, liquidity needed by heavyweight players, relative effect of news announcements, session considerations, etc. Longer TFs can offer more reliable analysis as each candle is representative of a greater cross section of participants. Because longer TFs include a greater cross section of participants, their flow patterns are potentially more stable and consistent. Also, patterns like S/R on longer TFs have greater visibility as they also include S/R from all lower TFs, and are therefore watched by a greater number of participants (more on this here).

As a simple proof that price is not completely fractal, it's possible to determine the TF of a chart from the size of the red news spikes and weekend gaps.

Also, the shorter the trading horizon, the more significant that costs and slippage (relatively) become. For example, if your trading horizon is typically 100 pips, then a 2 pip spread represents a 2% cost; if it's 20 pips, then the same spread represents a 10% cost. Over time this becomes hugely significant, as the size of every winning trade is reduced by this cost, and the size of every losing trade is increased by this cost. The more frequently a system trades, the greater the cumulative effect.


Myth # 14. That it's preferable to focus on one or two major pairs.
Not necessarily. Pairing the most negatively correlated currencies (the strongest against the weakest) delivers the best probability of catching strong, clean moves. This applies due to the triangular equilibrium (e.g. GBP/USD x USD/JPY = GBP/JPY) that is always maintained. Hence if GBPUSD and USDJPY are both trending upward, then GBP > USD > JPY, and hence GBPJPY will be trending upward even more steeply.


Myth # 15. That profitable trading is 90% mindset.
If method was unimportant, then EAs would, on average, outperform human traders. In any case, it's impossible to quantify the relationship that exists between Elder's three Ms: method (the strategic rationale behind entries and exits), money management (position sizing), and mindset (the emotional qualities needed to consistently execute the method). If one is to trade profitably, then all three are essential prerequisites: method = 100%, MM = 100%, mindset = 100%. Any weakness in mindset negates the efficacy of method, but mindset in itself can not compensate for deficiencies in method. Overleveraging can cause irretrievable drawdown despite having a profitable method (more info here). Hence all three are 100% important.

The "90% mindset" myth is possibly perpetuated by traders who attribute their failure to an obvious inability to remain disciplined, but while the ill-discipline was in fact masking an impotent method.


Myth # 16. That P/L-based trade management can provide an edge.
Unless backed by technical or statistical criteria, trade management strategies like moving SL to breakeven, or trailing a SL, do not in themselves provide an edge. They are merely a "feel good" measure that the market takes no cognizance of. The key measure is whether — over a great many trades — any reduction in risk compensates for profit that is forfeited by winners that are cut off prematurely, due to the tighter SL allowing them less room to move.

It is arguably better to plan the trade ahead of time, including predetermined SL and TP levels, when emotions are less compelling. Subsequently, unless it can be shown objectively that market probabilities have meanwhile altered, there is no valid reason to adjust these levels while the trade is in progress.

Extending this generalization, unless you have a proven statistical or technical reason for performing any action, you are merely guessing, and therefore gambling.

Traders who think in terms of a "free trade" or the "market's money" are (whether knowingly or not) making decisions based on their P/L rather than market behavior/probabilities.


Myth #17. That losses are the trader's fault, rather than the market's fault.
Losses are an inevitable by-product of statistical fluctuation, and hence every trader/system will encounter them. The trader is at fault only when he fails to follow his plan, regardless of the outcome (win or loss) of a trade. More discussion here.

It is only the possibility of loss that creates the opportunity for the winners that occur. Without some kind of risk, no return is possible. (Explained well by alphaomega here).


Myth #18. That setting daily, weekly, etc profit goals or targets is a good idea.
Not necessarily true. The trader who does this is effectively attempting to impose his own P/L expectation onto the market. For many successful traders, income doesn't always come as a consistent ‘X pips per day’; they have days that exceed their average, and unprofitable days, also.

Traders who shut up shop because a goal has been met may miss additional valid setups. And conversely, if a trader falls behind his target, he must either set a more realistic target (proving that the original target was worthless); or he must overtrade or overleverage himself, in an attempt to reach his goal.


Myth #19. That adding more filters to a chart, to eliminate unprofitable entry signals, will improve one's overall 'edge'.
Adding more filters may ultimately eliminate more profitable entry signals than losing ones.

Another key consideration is dependency. For example, all indicators are ultimately derived from price (and in some cases, volume). Hence adding more indicators to the same timeframe chart will not necessarily provide independent confirmation, nor add value. Ultimately one must enter every move on a certain candle, and one can enter on an earlier or later candle by simply re-calibrating any existing indicators.

Non-linear indicators (which aim to reduce lag and overshoot, without compromising smoothness) are not necessarily superior to conventional indicators. Attempting to enter earlier into a move can mean that the entry catches a minor correction in the trend, rather than the desired full-scale reversal.


Myth # 20. That newcomers fail because they jump from system to system.
Sure, it's necessary to test a system for long enough to achieve statistical validity. But if a system/strategy/approach/concept is impotent -- i.e. it fails to address a real market inefficiency -- then persevering with it indefinitely will never make it profitable (see this!!). Hence an aspiring trader must be willing to try different approaches until he finds one that both suits his personality, and is also robust enough to be safely and dependably profitable over many years' worth of changing markets. Sensible use of a simulator, and testing multiple systems simultaneously, can help to expedite the process. Any system/strategy/approach/concept should be considered impotent until proven otherwise.

I believe that it's better to start with a promising concept -- one that has good underlying reasons to deliver potential bias -- and only then test that concept; rather than using testing to try to find a concept (explained more by FF co-founder merlin here).


Myth # 21. That demo trading is pointless, because it doesn't test the trader's emotions.
The whole point of demo trading is to test a strategy objectively, without the results being distorted by emotional decision making.
Trading an unproven strategy live can cause a lack of confidence in the strategy, especially if losses occur, and lead to emotionally-based trading decisions.

Obviously demo trading is futile if the br0ker's test data (including costs and slippage) is inaccurate; or if the trader loses motivation and fails to apply the strategy consistently.

For some traders, microlots (10 cents/pip) might not test their emotions any more than demo. Each individual has a threshold position size where emotions start to affect his decision making (it's probably lower than many newcomers think! )

Demo accounts are also essential for debugging EAs (obviously you don't want money at risk while program bugs might still exist).


Myth # 22. That markets are efficient to the point that all price movement is a completely random walk.
If that was true, then all types of analysis would be futile, all systems would have a long term expectancy of zero (ignoring costs), hence all P/L would be completely fortuitous, and ALL traders (given the erosion caused by transaction costs) would eventually lose.

Here is some evidence/examples of non-randomness:
 the large price spikes that coincide with high impact news announcements
 the price stabilization/profit taking that tends to occur in the wake of a news spike
 that traders tend to place their stops just outside swing points
 clustered swing points can trigger a "cascading stops" effect
 that heavyweights occasionally exploit amateur stops, in their search for liquidity (colloquially "stoploss hunting")
 that volatility frequently shrinks significantly as the market awaits a big news announcement
 that volatility otherwise follows fairly consistent patterns depending on the time of the day
 statistically, daily highs/lows of major pairs occur more frequently around certain times of the day (i.e. are not evenly distributed across the 24 hours -- see this)
 that price frequently stalls, and reverses, at certain key levels, which tells us that higher volumes of limit orders frequently cluster in predictable zones
 that conversely, price moves more rapidly/freely through zones where liquidity was previously low ("vacuums")
 the occasional existence of 'flash crashes', where price spikes instantaneously through a vacuum; and how price invariably returns to a level near where it was just before the flash crash occurred
 that higher volume (on shorter TFs) -- even local tick volume -- often signposts the start of a move; or imminent exhaustion of a move ("stopping volume")
 trapped trader behavior, creating turncoat (or 'flipover') S/R patterns during strong intraday moves
 that price invariably follows a repeating consolidation-breakout-move-consolidation-etc pattern, on all timeframes
 that longer term trends coincide with obvious macroeconomic factors (most notably, divergent CB monetary policy between the two currencies in the pair)
 correlations that exist between risk-on/risk-off in other markets and forex safe haven flows
 correlations between commodity prices and forex (e.g. WTI price vs CAD)
 consistently different ADRs for different pairs (compare GBPNZD with EURGBP, for example)
 different correlations between currencies (EUR/CHF correlation pattern is very different to EUR/USD, for example)
 patterns created by profit taking, as price approaches the weekend
 that 'fat tail' distributions exist, mainly in longer timeframes; these 'trends' are caused by a variety of reasons, most likely by the effects of economic policy being gradually 'priced in', and trader psychology/behavior in response to prevailing 'sentiment'
 effects caused by macroeconomic or geopolitical factors (the impact of 'Brexit' on GBP is a good recent example)
 effects when governments and central banks intervene, when they deem that an imbalance is detrimental to their nation's economy, or that their currency's value needs adjustment (e.g. OCR changes, quantitative easing)

However, the fact that non-randomness (or "inefficiencies") exist doesn't automatically mean that it's always possible for the retail trader to exploit them profitably. Spikes that occur the instant that red news is announced is one such example.

Conversely, to whatever extent inefficiencies like those listed are exploitable, and to the point that transaction costs are overcome, it is mathematically possible to profit systematically from trading.

In reality, "randomness" is a euphemism for either a lack of information; or a lack of knowledge about what information is available, and how to use it profitably.


Myth # 23. That a holy grail exists.
Every method has its Achilles heel — market conditions that are unsuitable — and is therefore prone to occasional losses. In general, return is impossible
without some kind of risk. Perfection can never be achieved simply because, at any point, the market is a mix of anonymous participants whose agendas are unknown. It only takes one large order, or one 'black swan' event (e.g. an unscheduled news announcement), to upset even the most 'perfect' technical strategy. Hence the need to manage risk. More detail here.

The best that any (retail) trader can hope for is an edge, and the discipline needed to execute it consistently. An edge is ultimately determined by how heavily/frequently a trader is net long while price is rising, and net short when price is falling. In other words, the more accurately a trader times his entries and exits relative to market reversals, the more pips he banks. Nothing (MM, R:R, perfectly disciplined execution, positive attitude, etc) can overturn this fact.

Here is what veteran trader Joel Rensink has to say about the requirements of a robust 'edge':

Quoting TheRealThing
Disliked
A couple of great trades, or a month of great trades, or a year of great trades is nowhere near enough. To make 50 thousand-plus trades and be ahead, to be able to survive years of changing markets, politicians, governments, wives, ex-wives, good health, bad health--- while trading profitably is what you need from an edge. Private, profitable traders (those who've done the above) can tell you their edge immediately, and can prove it.
Ignored
If a claim being made about a system seems too good to be true, be wary of the egotist or the system seller. Systems with win rates, or even profit factors (PF is the product of win rate and average RR), that are absurdly high, are almost certainly being propped up by MM that will eventually prove unsustainable (martingale is a good example). Some info on how to interpret performance statistics here.


Myth # 24. That forex is a scam.
It's true that some br0kers actively trade against, or otherwise cheat, their clients; and that many vendors fraudulently sell impotent EAs, signals, systems and indicators, and education that is effectively worthless. It's also true that heavyweight players attempt to manipulate prices in the hope of maximizing their profit (although manipulation can create recurring patterns that are potentially exploitable -- see myth #22). However, beyond this, at best spot forex is merely a decentralized market that facilitates the trading of one currency for another. At worst, it is no more sinister than casinos or lotteries: you choose to speculate, and you are responsible for the decisions that you make. Many people fall victim to their own greed, laziness and ignorance. Successful trading is a highly nuanced art, and there is no substitute for knowledge and many hours of hands-on experience. While educators can provide you with fresh ideas to test, ultimately the only person who can teach you to trade profitably is you.


Myth # 25. To succeed in trading, you must treat it like running a business.
In the main, this is plain wrong. Running a business successfully involves dealing with staff, customers, creditors, inventory, marketing, administration, additional paperwork. You're dealing with logistics like increasing sales, improving market share over your competitors, cutting overheads, borrowing to expand infrastructure. In other words, the potential complications that trading offers the promise of getting away from.

Trading requires a very different skillset, different specialist knowledge, and also a different mindset, including directly conquering personal demons like fear and greed. It involves mastering unique types of processes.

It's true that you must approach trading just as seriously and methodically as you would approach operating a business, or indeed any kind of activity that involves potential financial gain or loss. But any similarity starts and ends there.


Myth # 26. That some indicators generate significantly better signals than others.
All indicators are derived from price, and therefore can't ever lead price. No indicator can predict the future. The market is a tug-of-war between willing buyers and sellers whose trade volumes cause price to rise or fall. Spot fx is a decentralized market and full volume information is not available to the retail trader; and the sentiment that influences heavyweight decision making is caused by factors like these. No indicator can directly measure these factors. Ultimately the trader must enter on a candle, and any indicator can be re-calibrated to get the trader into a move on an earlier or later candle, e.g. price will cross a SMA(10) before it crosses a SMA(20). See myth #19.

If an indicator is generating signals consistently at high and low swing points, then it's almost certainly repainting, explanation here. To remove the repainting from an indicator involves rewriting its formula, and hence the signal accuracy will be reduced to something approaching that of an 'ordinary' indicator.

Indicators can nonetheless generate a useful roadmap that allows the trader to better assess the price movement. Fudomyo explains it well here. But dreamers who expect indicators to generate consistently profitable entry/exit signals have likely been conned by salespeople and forum talk that appeals to wishful thinking. If trading was as easy as writing an indicator-based EA to effortlessly making an exponentially growing income, most retail traders would be millionaires, and institutions would save themselves millions by replacing all of their highly paid math professors, economics PhDs, expert analysts and veteran traders with a simple indicator based system. Yet neither of these things have happened. There are no shortcuts toward attaining success.


And, finally.........

Myth # 27. Trading is about making money.
Trading is not so much about making money; it's ultimately about making correct decisions. If you consistently make good decisions, your account will grow accordingly. But if you chase after money, you'll almost certainly end up making poor decisions. (thanks to Seneca_pilot for contributing this)

It follows that the more you enjoy the actual process of trading, the more successful you're likely to be. And maintaining focus on the process can potentially help you to remain less emotionally attached to the money itself. Decisions should ultimately be made around market behavior and probabilities, not your P/L.

Amateur traders are impressed by high returns, whereas professionals focus more on managing risk. Quoting return by itself is meaningless, as it is a function of risk, payoff, MM and trade frequency (explained here).


NOTE: there seems to be confusion as to exactly what is intended to be true and false. The myths in blue typeface are FALSE statements, and the black text underneath attempts to explain why. For example:

Myth. Santa Claus lives at the North Pole.
The reality is that Santa doesn't even exist.

Myth. The opposite of 'win' is 'loose'.
No, the opposite of 'win' is 'lose'. The opposite of 'tight' is 'loose'. If you doubt this, either see this, or check a dictionary.
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 9:28am Dec 25, 2010 9:28am
  •  Rob Mondave
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Member | 531 Posts
Nice Christmas present to newer traders. Too bad that most seasoned but failed traders will continue to either displace blame or grasp at straws.

And I appreciate that you make the effort to spell correctly and use good grammar. Sometimes I just want to let lose on people who don't.

Rob
 
 
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 9:49am Dec 25, 2010 9:49am
  •  TJPLD
  • Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Inertial Member | 2,297 Posts
Quoting hanover
Disliked
Twelve widely believed forex myths


1. That inverting the signals in a losing strategy must necessarily make it a winning one.
Any strategy that fails to exploit a real market inefficiency is effectively generating random signals. Inverting a random signal generator will only create yet another random signal generator, which will therefore be equally ineffective.


2. That MM (and sizing variations, nedging, scaling in/out etc) can in itself provide a winning edge.
Varying position size is effective...
Ignored
Good list.

I'd also add to Point 1 that most consistently losing automated strategies simply can't overcome the spread. If you invert them perfectly they will still lose because of the spread you pay no matter if your strategie is inverted or not.

Myth Number 13 and I hear this even from people who trade for over 5 years is that higher leverage means trading is more risky. Even if you compare true leverage for your trades a higher leveraged trade can still risk the same percentage of your account is therefore equally risky. Leverage itself is the most overrated and least understood thing in Forex Trading.
 
 
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 9:56am Dec 25, 2010 9:56am
  •  Kenz987
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 737 Posts
Hanover,
Please provide a definition of the word: "nedge".
I don't recall seeing it in the dictionary.
Thanks, Ken.

nedge- no dictionary results
 
 
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 10:05am Dec 25, 2010 10:05am
  •  Intensity
  • | Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Member | 534 Posts
Quoting TJPLD
Disliked
Myth Number 13 and I hear this even from people who trade for over 5 years is that higher leverage means trading is more risky. Even if you compare true leverage for your trades a higher leveraged trade can still risk the same percentage of your account is therefore equally risky. Leverage itself is the most overrated and least understood thing in Forex Trading.
Ignored
I'm not sure I understand your point.
The profile of a highly leveraged trader who would lose his account with a 200 pips loss seems riskier than one who would lose his account with a 20,000 pips loss.
My guess is that you are trying to make a point using the difference between the nominal leverage (50:1, 200:1, etc) and effective leverage (your exposure relative to your account size).
 
 
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 10:49am Dec 25, 2010 10:49am
  •  ha-pattern
  • Joined Sep 2008 | Status: hardcore chartist | 2,173 Posts
Quoting hanover
Disliked
Twelve widely believed forex myths...


12. That some Martingale-based trading systems are superior to others.
The overriding factor behind all Martingale systems is the MM, or specifically the 'death trade'. No amount of testing can determine (without a high amount of statistical error) the likelihood of whether an extremely low probability event will occur sooner, rather than later. From this standpoint, all Martingale systems have an approximately equal probability as to when they will implode,...
Ignored
Most of the list's items address things indirectly related to interpreting data enough to make profit from. They clear the air of faulty ideas; that's good.

This last item does this and brings up the subject of how trading works at its core. A Martingale MM wholly depends on one interpretation of the market to work, and "implode"s an account exactly with the method's failure.

If one can know when one's method stops working, one can also effectively use a Martingale or any other risk level with that method. Some traders are especially good at timing cyclic use of their preferred study method -- MysticGenie, for example -- versus risking exposure of one's account to portions of the chart excluded from explanation. The rest of us have to use in- and between-trade drawdown to cover our method-timing mistakes, rendering Martingale useless.
 
 
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 11:13am Dec 25, 2010 11:13am
  •  TJPLD
  • Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Inertial Member | 2,297 Posts
Quoting Intensity
Disliked
I'm not sure I understand your point.
The profile of a highly leveraged trader who would lose his account with a 200 pips loss seems riskier than one who would lose his account with a 20,000 pips loss.
My guess is that you are trying to make a point using the difference between the nominal leverage (50:1, 200:1, etc) and effective leverage (your exposure relative to your account size).
Ignored
It doesn't matter if you compare nominal leverage or effective leverage. Both have absolutely nothing to do with your risk.
 
 
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 11:16am Dec 25, 2010 11:16am
  •  Intensity
  • | Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Member | 534 Posts
Quoting TJPLD
Disliked
It doesn't matter if you compare nominal leverage or effective leverage. Both have absolutely nothing to do with your risk.
Ignored
If every other condition (timeframe, time in the trade, strategy, etc) stays the same, which was implicitly implied, leverage is strongly correlated with risk. If you have a different opinion, please do explain.
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 11:57am Dec 25, 2010 11:57am
  •  TJPLD
  • Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Inertial Member | 2,297 Posts
Quoting Intensity
Disliked
If every other condition (timeframe, time in the trade, strategy, etc) stays the same, which was implicitly implied, leverage is strongly correlated with risk. If you have a different opinion, please do explain.
Ignored
Easy.

Example 1:
Risik 1%
Stoploss 15 Pips
EUR/USD one StandardLot = 10USD/Pip
Account 1000 USD

1% = 10 USD

Lotsize

10 USD = 15 Pips Stoploss * 10 USD/Pip * X Lots
=> x = 0.066.. StandardLots or 6666 Units if you trade at Oanda. If you have a microlot MT4 it would be 6000 Units so your risk is a little bit less than 1%

1000 USD Account traded with 6000 Units gives you an effective leverage of 1:6. Your Brokers Leverage defines how much you have to pay for these 6000 Units but aslong as it's above 1:6 you could not care less.

Example 2:
Risik 1%
Stoploss 70 Pips
EUR/USD one StandardLot = 10USD/Pip
Account 1000 USD

1% = 10 USD

Lotsize

10 USD = 70 Stoploss * 10 USD/Pip * X Lots
=> x = 0.01428.. StandardLots or 1428 Units for Oanda. 1000 Units with a MT4 Microlot Broker again this makes our risk slightly lower than 1%. Or effective leverage here is 1:1.

Which is more risky 1:1 or 6:1?
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 12:25pm Dec 25, 2010 12:25pm
  •  Intensity
  • | Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Member | 534 Posts
Thanks for the explanation TJPLD !


Quoting TJPLD
Disliked
Example 1:
Risik 1%
Stoploss 15 Pips

Example 2:
Risik 1%
Stoploss 70 Pips


Which is more risky 1:1 or 6:1?
Ignored
I would say that 6:1 is more risky because an order can easily go 15pips against you while there are often retracements on a 70 pips move that would allow you to exit at breakeven. But regardless of the strategy, an adverse 15 pips move will occur more often than an adverse 70 pips move given the volatility of the E/U. A 15 pips stoploss can be taken out by noise/ranging market while a 70 pips stop loss need at least a mini trend to be taken out.

Let's say that the market is ranging 70% of the time and trending 30% of the time. Let's also say that a range is when the price stays in a 50 pips box and a trend is when the price goes out. Let's also say that the price has a random probability of ranging/trending up/down in regards of our entry price. Given these factors, there is more or less :
- a 35% chance that a ranging market will take out our 15 pip SL and a 15% chance that a trending market will take out the same stop loss.
- a 0% chance that a ranging market will take out our 70 pip SL and a 15% chance that a trending market will take out the same stop loss.
That means that there is a 50% chance for our little SL to be taken out, which is more than thrice the chance that our larger SL is taken out.

All in all, if your risk with a 70 pips SL is 1%, your real risk will be a little higher than 3% with a 15 pips SL because it will occur more often.

Thanks for reading that far, and if you have any comments don't hesite to continue the discussion. I started with very small stop losses, high leverage and then moved to large SL low leverage but it's the first time that I tried to calculate the reason why this strategy would be less dangerous and I might be wrong
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 12:28pm Dec 25, 2010 12:28pm
  •  ForexQuant
  • Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Member | 519 Posts
Quoting TJPLD
Disliked

Which is more risky 1:1 or 6:1?
Ignored
Same.
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 12:42pm Dec 25, 2010 12:42pm
  •  Intensity
  • | Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Member | 534 Posts
Quoting Intensity
Disliked
I would say that 6:1 is more risky
Ignored
My precedent message wasn't complete because the exit rules (or the size of your TP) will have a huge influence on the risk, and whether or not it scales with the SL.
There are other factors : if your reverse your trades, if you use market or limit orders, etc that work better with a high or low stop loss.

In conclusion, the leverage alone isn't sufficient to establish the riskiness of a trading strategy. It's not entirely irrelevant but it's definitely not enough.
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 12:45pm Dec 25, 2010 12:45pm
  •  ForexQuant
  • Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Member | 519 Posts
Quoting hanover
Disliked
6. That taking high RR trades will in itself guarantee success.
Everything else being equal, RR and win rate operate in inverse proportion to each other.
Ignored
I am not fully agree on this. RR and win% do have inverse relationship, but they are not inverse proportional to each other.
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 1:36pm Dec 25, 2010 1:36pm
  •  hanover
  • Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,092 Posts
Quoting Kenz987
Disliked
Hanover,
Please provide a definition of the word: "nedge".
I don't recall seeing it in the dictionary.
Thanks, Ken.

nedge- no dictionary results
Ignored
Nedging is a term that refers to holding both long and short positions simultaneously in the same pair. If I recall correctly, the term was coined by Merlin, meaning something like "newbie hedging", to distinguish it from other types of hedging that are potentially profitable. Here's Merlin's original thread.
 
1
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 1:37pm Dec 25, 2010 1:37pm
  •  hanover
  • Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,092 Posts
Quoting Rob Mondave
Disliked
Sometimes I just want to let lose on people who don't.
Ignored
LOL, well said.
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 1:54pm Dec 25, 2010 1:54pm
  •  hanover
  • Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,092 Posts
Quoting TJPLD
Disliked
Good list.

I'd also add to Point 1 that most consistently losing automated strategies simply can't overcome the spread. If you invert them perfectly they will still lose because of the spread you pay no matter if your strategie is inverted or not.

Myth Number 13 and I hear this even from people who trade for over 5 years is that higher leverage means trading is more risky. Even if you compare true leverage for your trades a higher leveraged trade can still risk the same percentage of your account is therefore equally risky. Leverage itself...
Ignored
Good post IMO. I see risk and leverage as separate animals.

Risk is how much I choose to wager on an individual trade ($X, or X% of my account equity).

Leverage merely determines whether I have sufficient margin in my account to make the trade.

Of course they are loosely (just for Rob ) connected in the sense that a larger position size (in absolute terms, i.e. lot-wise, and assuming the same distance between entry and SL) places more at risk, and also consumes more of the available margin.
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 4:10pm Dec 25, 2010 4:10pm
  •  Kenz987
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 737 Posts
Wait! That's a spread.
"2. That MM (and sizing variations, nedging, scaling in/out etc) can in itself provide a winning edge. ...
Nedging in itself is impotent because every nedge can be replicated by a single net position, and nedging attracts greater transaction costs (swap + spread)."
I agree.
This topic has been beaten to death and I do not want to start another long discussion on it. However, I do believe that there is a positive side that most of the smart folks delibertly ignore in their rantings.
How do you stop TIME? Can you stop the Clock? Say it's late Friday, your EA has eaten your positions into deep red, and you can either:
1: Kill the EA, Close all positions. - or -
2: STOP The Clock!
Kill the EA, Hedge all positions, spend your weekend thinking about a way out of the red ink, Monday morning manually trade each piece back into profit and lift the hedges as you do so.
...
Number 1 might be the best mathematically. I DON'T KNOW.
Number 2 would make me feel better psychologically.(wait, did I spell that correctly?)
Thanks Hanover for all you do.
Ken.
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 5:00pm Dec 25, 2010 5:00pm
  •  nhct
  • | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Member | 89 Posts
Quoting hanover
Disliked
Twelve widely believed forex myths
...
2. That MM (and sizing variations, nedging, scaling in/out etc) can in itself provide a winning edge.
Varying position size is effective only if the larger sizes coincide with winning trades, to achieve which one must already have an edge. All other forms of MM merely re-balance return and risk, and/or redistribute wins and losses. No negative expectancy game can be beaten solely by using MM.
...
Ignored
#2 is not, in general, a trading myth.

If a given negative expectancy strategy happens to have a long-term observed trade distribution with a negative serial autocorrelation, then MM, all by itself, expressly designed to take advantage of that property, will either reduce the negative expectancy or turn it positive.

In plain English, negative serial autocorrelation means, in the simplest possible terms, that a loss is more likely than not to be followed by a win.

One good example on this forum -- although I would think there must be quite a few others -- of a negative serial autocorrelation strategy may be found here.
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Dec 25, 2010 5:24pm Dec 25, 2010 5:24pm
  •  abdunbar
  • | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 63 Posts
Quoting Intensity
Disliked
My precedent message wasn't complete because the exit rules (or the size of your TP) will have a huge influence on the risk, and whether or not it scales with the SL.
There are other factors : if your reverse your trades, if you use market or limit orders, etc that work better with a high or low stop loss.

In conclusion, the leverage alone isn't sufficient to establish the riskiness of a trading strategy. It's not entirely irrelevant but it's definitely not enough.
Ignored
I am wondering if you have a different definition of risk than TJPLD. I define risk as the amount of dollars that I am risking on the planned trade. It doesn't have anything to do with the planned TP (Take Profit) for the trade. That , the profit is a factor in calculating R/R (risk/reward.) Risk for me is only the amount in dollars that I have determined to risk, period and for this reason has nothing to do with profit or margin.

Sorry if I am missing your point, just hoping to clarify. Also, I am new to this forum and do not have a feel for how familiar people here are to the acronyms that I am familiar with. So, please do not take offense if I seem patronizing, noe is intended.


Archie
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Edited Dec 26, 2010 12:38pm Dec 25, 2010 9:34pm | Edited Dec 26, 2010 12:38pm
  •  hanover
  • Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,092 Posts
Quoting nhct
Disliked
#2 is not, in general, a trading myth.

If a given negative expectancy strategy happens to have a long-term observed trade distribution with a negative serial autocorrelation, then MM, all by itself, expressly designed to take advantage of that property, will either reduce the negative expectancy or turn it positive.

In plain English, negative serial autocorrelation means, in the simplest possible terms, that a loss is more likely than not to be followed by a win.

One good example on this forum -- although I would think there must...
Ignored
Any serial correlation must ultimately be grounded in market behavior and probabilities, in order to be valid. Simply increasing position size on the assumption that a loss is more likely to be followed by a win - or even worse, merely out of the misplaced desire to recover recent losses - is akin to gambler's fallacy (e.g. that tossing a head becomes more probable, following a sequence of tails). In terms of eventual bottom line, a recent loss has the same effect as a more distantly past one.

As any savvy punter knows, increasing bet size when the odds become increasingly favorable, is a smart move. But this still needs to be weighed against the need to preserve one's bankroll into the long term, and also that the bet size should in some way remain commensurate with the odds that are being offered. That's one big reason why Martingale (and its variants) are so dangerous. If one is doubling, for example, then after five consecutive losses the bet size is 32 times the original wager. In terms of a trading situation, unless the current setup is of the order of 32 times superior to the original one, the higher bet can not be justified.

Everything else being equal, the relationship that exists between (fixed frac) bet size and risk of ruin is an exponential one. For example, if one doubles one's trade risk (from 2% to 4%, for example), then the risk of ruin (over a very large sequence of trades) is more than doubled. That's another reason to remain conservative in one's position sizing.

I stand by my comments in my original post. In a zero expectancy game, MM can do nothing other than redistribute wins and losses, as the attached XLS (which I've posted many times before) demonstrates.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Martingale comparison.xls   126 KB | 633 downloads
 
 
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