Mouteki Trading

Quoting grillbritt

Disliked

I'm not so sure about this short in the cable... USD/JPY is at a strong resistance, and I think it will go south soon. And the correlation between GBP/USD USD/JPY says that cable then go north...

What do you think?

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/8595/gbpusdzq2.gif

Ignored

Quoting phoenix

Disliked

Hey all. I was curious as to how bad august was so I manually backtested it.

According to my backtesting I was up 284 pips for the month of August!
(If that was a bad month, I'd love to see a good month) A list of taken trades are shown at the end of this posting.

For my backtesting, I followed mouteki's rules to the T and i tested from august 1 through august 31.

A couple of things to point out however during that month:

1) When two adjacent candles (in a five candle that determines support\resistance) had the exact same highs for a resistance point or the exact same lows for a support point, i took the more recent high to be the support or resistance point.

2)Stop losses were moved up to 10 pip profit point when the price action moved more than 40 pips in the projected direction. (this is in accordance with mouteki's stop loss rules)

3) support point or resistance points must be verified with two lower highs or higher lows respectively on each side of the sup\res point. however in some cases the candles that contain the higher lows or lower highs open in such a way it's already broken the trendline. Please reference the picture below. one can see to the left of the fat white line how the fifth candle needed to verify a valid resistance candle has opened below the trendline).
in this case i used the open of that candle as the reference from which to subtract my price projection. This is considered by mouteki to be a valid resistance point. Reference the mouteki trading thread (post#19)

In this case the open and close are near one another it doesn't really matter to much whether i considered my position open on the open or close of the candle in question or whether i open my position on the) open of the next candle. I would recommend opening on a position on close of the candle in question when this happens (and it's close to the trendline break and there's significant room in the price projection).

4) position were immediately closed and reversed if an opposing trendline was broken. e.g. if i had buy on after the break of a supply trendline and while that trade was on, a candle broke the demand trendline, i would then close the buy order and open the sell order.

5) in one instance the higher low\lower high candle opened in such a way that it broke both the support and demand line. in this case, the trade was not taken. please reference the second attached picture for what i am talking about.


Trade journal
Trade #1 = 10 pips (stop loss hit)
Trade #2= 10 pips (stop loss hit)
Trade #3= 85 pips
Trade #4= 3 pips (reversed positions due to opposing trendline break)
Trade #5= 54 pips
Trade #6= 10 pips
Trade #7 = not taken (broke both trendlines simultaneously)
Trade #8= 38 pips
Trade #9 = 90 pips
Trade #10=-35 pips loss
Trade #11 =45 pips
Trade #12=18 pips
Trade #13=-17 pips (reversed positions due to opposing trendline break)
Trade #14=10 pips
Trade #15= -37 pips

Total Number of Wins =12
Total Number of Losses=3
Total Profits=284


avg losing trade value~30pips
avg winning trade value~34 pips

avg profit\trade~20pips.

Very impressive system indeed.
I think with better money management the risk/reward ratio per trade could be increased.

phoenix

Ignored

Quoting Rizvi

Disliked

I had a question regarding the indicator. The Mouteki Heart Ver2, or even ver1.

I dont understand why it draws the intersecting lines, where it draws. Because if i follow the mouteki rules, my intersecting lines to supply/demand are at different spots than what the indicator draws.

Ignored

Quoting LazyPawn

Disliked

Rizvi, the horizontal lines simply show the prices the current candle would have to reach in order to break the trendlines.

Ignored

Quoting Angler

Disliked

hi..


The question ya have to ask is...is that spike a ligitimate place to start the trendline...was just crazy buying..

Ignored

Quoting turbokaos

Disliked

I didn't take this one cause the stoch is over sold I always look for a minimum two confluence for any trade.

turbo

Ignored

Quoting jumper

Disliked

Would you be nice and ask God to send some blessings my way too? *innocent & pitiful look*

Ignored

Quoting rosso832

Disliked

Please, can anyone tell me what is the main rule to go uptrend or downtrend??? I never could decide what a way to go. Thanx for your help!

Ignored

Quoting Nipper

Disliked

Perhaps this should be posted on the Mouteki filters, but anyways - here goes. I also use the stochastic as a filter for the Mouteki lines. But, I'm not sure if I use it in the same way as you. As a simple "oversold" or "overbought" indication, it doesn't seem to suit me well on the 4 hour chart. Those levels seem to work better with the daily and weekly charts (for me anyways). I have seen the stochastic in both regions of the chart from (0-25) and (75-100) thinking that it was either oversold or overbought, only to see the price move another (+/-)200 pips or so, while the stochastic remains at these levels. The level itself does seem to have some significance though. The way I use it on the 4 hour chart, is by comparing the current level to past levels to get an idea of the strength of the move (momentum). And, then look for divergence. Currently it's at 5.44, and the last time it was at a lower level was July 17 (4.01). Therefore, the dollar downtrend momentum seems to have some ummfff! A really nice setup occurred on the Mouteki Demand line break Sept 25, when the Stochastic diverged and Mouteki confirmed - absolutely perfect. There were 2 more confirming Mouteki D-line breaks as can be seen by the medium blue lines. The thick blue line was the first Mouteki line. What I also found interesting, was that the second Mouteki demand line was a "Fibonacci fan" level (pale blue lines). Coincidence! Maybe! But, I have noticed the "fibo fans" coincide with the Mouteki lines on other occations. The stochastics then fell below the overbought 75 level to 63. This occurred on the same candle as the Mouteki break, which was yet another confirmation (see red arrow). The cable broke down 395 pips to a low of the first Mouteki entry signal. See attached chart. I don't feel that we should enter on every single Mouteki line break blindly, but rather wait for the ones that have the most significance. Once this dollar rally is complete, there is a good possibility of another setup coming up later in the week, or perhaps early next week for a cable long. With the stochastic now pushing the July 17 low, another divergence should take place. And cable rallies are stronger than dollar rallies as can be seen on the weekly charts.

Ignored

Quoting turbokaos

Disliked

With it being holiday I thinky you going find quite a byte of false trend break as the trend weill be closely drawn in flat / nothing market

Already after 5pm GMT not many players in the mkt

Ignored

Quoting Ahil

Disliked

Went Short on GBPJPY

Profit target = 128 pips
Stop loss = 42+spread

http://img122.imageshack.us/img122/6...pyshortlr0.gif

Ignored