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  • #91,821
  • Oct 9, 2018 3:51am Oct 9, 2018 3:51am
Quoting lddd
My UCAD H4 short trade 8 hours later... Actually thats the situation i end up most of the time with H4 so far (testing H4 for 4 weeks now, took about 6 trades, 5 were losers where the setup looked promising like this one). I am about 10 pips minus now. Regarding to BigEīs static exit rule exit on a checkmark i probably will be giving back another 30-40 pips... {image}

Exit when H4 HA candle close with change in colour and the price bar closes bullish.

Also consider what Big E mentioned in Post#270.This post 270 is about trade management ...EXIT.

Quoting eelfranz
TDI... Ask me specific questions with chart examples... mark your chart up. Don't be vague... get specific... I don't have the ability to know what your thinking. The 32,50 & 68 lines are original. When you get to 68 start looking for a reversal sign on the TDI... However it could still be 50-100 pips away ocasionally... just pay attention to the green line for a possible exit signal... the 32 line is the opposite. When I check my charts... I look to the TDI... then PA. If I'm not feeling strong about a current in progress trade... get out then and keep the pips... you don't have to wait for the next candle to exit. Grab your money and run to a new trade... A lot of the problems are people trading 5min-1hr charts... your setting yourself up for failure in most cases... I use to trade the first 2 hours of the NY Session on the 15min charts. Since I no longer trade 15min charts I shut down at 6am my time (9am NY). At about 8am my time (pacific) the market starts to range normally... it's self destruct to trade ranging markets.. If I did trade the first couple of hours I'd scalp it on a 4hr chart if I get a set up... If the TDI straight green line tweeks it's angle... pay close attention... check everything... it's warning you something has changed or is about to...


...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #91,822
  • Oct 9, 2018 5:21am Oct 9, 2018 5:21am
UCAD another H4 stop loss taken. -20 Pips. Great i havenīt set my SL to the swing high...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad-h4-fxopen-investments-inc.png Size: 70 KB
  • #91,823
  • Oct 9, 2018 5:33am Oct 9, 2018 5:33am
Fellow Traders,

Here is an important video I just did to remind you something important that BigE mentioned:

Reduce your charts to the small size check the overall trend of the pair... Confirm your TDI cross or reversal.. Take the trade if you cross angel is 12-2 or 4-6... follow all other rules.

Also copies of the trade taken.. I used and EA to close my trades otherwise I would still be swimming in PIPs

EURUSD The Cross on 08 Oct 2018 @ 08hr00 East African Time

SmartKenya
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 24 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mp4 Buy_Sell.mp4   2.0 MB | 501 downloads
  • #91,824
  • Oct 9, 2018 5:41am Oct 9, 2018 5:41am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Exit when H4 HA candle close with change in colour and the price bar closes bullish. Also consider what Big E mentioned in Post#270.This post 270 is about trade management ...EXIT. {quote} ...

Yes but when i trade the H4 the first candle posted by my broker would be 08:00 am GMT +3, london open. Now the next H4 candle would be posted 12:00 am which is 11:00 am my time. Now around that time i normally donīt have time to check my charts for exists as i am involved in a lot of other stuff.

But i got a trade management indicator now doing automatic SL, breakeven and trailing stop (if the trade is in profit).

If anyone interested its this one
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Quik_Trailing.ex4   19 KB | 409 downloads


Lets see how this works.

However i think the H4 doesnīt fit well with my personality and trading style. Now with what i said the average pip value for a H4 candle is far away from what BigE once told i could easily go for these 20-30 Pips H4 might give me on a M15 chart same as good. Trading this instead actively than passive doing nothing for a few hours and watching charts + the benefits of learning from price movements for the markets i trade instead of doing this "stress free H4" trading.

H4 is maybe more meaningful to traders from the US Trumpy Land
  • #91,825
  • Oct 9, 2018 6:16am Oct 9, 2018 6:16am
Quoting SmartKenya
Fellow Traders, Here is an important video I just did to remind you something important that BigE mentioned: Reduce your charts to the small size check the overall trend of the pair... Confirm your TDI cross or reversal.. Take the trade if you cross angel is 12-2 or 4-6... follow all other rules. Also copies of the trade taken.. I used and EA to close my trades otherwise I would still be swimming in PIPs EURUSD The Cross on 08 Oct 2018 @ 08hr00 East African Time SmartKenya {file} {image}
Nice. People should post more videos here, more saying then a thousands words can do posting static information especially in a industry happens in a dynamic always moving and changing world. Keep it up.

Did BigE ever posted some videos?
  • #91,826
  • Oct 9, 2018 6:30am Oct 9, 2018 6:30am
Quoting lddd
{quote} I think watching the shorter time frame for some earlier entry is not what BigE was doing. Setting the stop to the last swing high would mean a 40 pips stop loss in this case, thats a possible $400 loss on a 1 lot position, compared to what? So i would need to set my first TP at around 80 pips for proper money management for a 1:2 risk/reward. Now do you see a 80 pips short run here? Looking back at my last H4 trades in 4 out of 5 trades i would have stopped out on exactly such swing high/low. Canīt post my charts for the last H4 trades...
That only works if you have a constant stop lossfor instance always 40 pips stop loss and an 80 pip take profit, it doesn't work if you have a stop loss that varies. So its not worth every trade being 1:2 but your overall trading.
Success means going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm
  • #91,827
  • Oct 9, 2018 6:43am Oct 9, 2018 6:43am
Quoting lisat
{quote}That only works if you have a constant stop lossfor instance always 40 pips stop loss and an 80 pip take profit, it doesn't work if you have a stop loss that varies. So its not worth every trade being 1:2 but your overall trading.
Thats what i mean.
  • #91,828
  • Oct 9, 2018 6:48am Oct 9, 2018 6:48am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thats what i mean.
But you were saying if you have a stop loss of 40 pips you would need roughly 80 pips take profit for good management, whereas that is not the case as you can't work it out on individual trades it is over say 50 or 100 trades.
Success means going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm
  • #91,829
  • Oct 9, 2018 7:02am Oct 9, 2018 7:02am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} What about CADJPY D1 charts sell when day open? Use PAC for setup candle. Trade management: Initial Stop Loss above previous 2 days high.... Risk R. BE when price move +25pips. Jumping Stop set at 25pips. {image}
CADJPY Oct 09 D1 trade update.

Market tested yesterday's low and MPTM trade manager move the initial Stop Loss to Breakeven when price moved +25pips..
Now wait for the next move i.e. Jumping Stop move which is set to 25pips. When market move +50 pips from Entry price, the next stop will be move to protect +25pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY Week 41 Oct 09 D1 sell trade update BE.png Size: 48 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #91,830
  • Oct 9, 2018 7:04am Oct 9, 2018 7:04am
Quoting PeterE
can we trade just market structure and TDI? . {image}

you can better trade following market structure without the TDI.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #91,831
  • Oct 9, 2018 7:08am Oct 9, 2018 7:08am
※ Heiken Ashi (HA) Average Price Bars ※

 

  1. Using non-lag Hull Moving Average algorithm
  2. With Jurik Smoothing/Filter ─ Jurik Smooth Heiken Ashi - JSHA

    Attached Image (click to enlarge)
    Click to Enlarge Name: HA-APB3.JPG Size: 59 KB


https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=831726

Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #91,832
  • Edited 7:25am Oct 9, 2018 7:13am | Edited 7:25am
Quoting lisat
{quote}But you were saying if you have a stop loss of 40 pips you would need roughly 80 pips take profit for good management, whereas that is not the case as you can't work it out on individual trades it is over say 50 or 100 trades.
Yes but the point is when you expect 50% of the signals to work out and you treat each trade with a fixed SL = 40 Pips, TP= 80 Pips, thats means for 100 Trades

Loss | 50 x 40 Pips (EUR/USD, 1 Lot) = - 2000 Pips
Win | 50 x 80 Pips (EUR/USD 1 Lot) = + 4.000 Pips

OR

Loss = $20.000 USD
Win = $40.000 USD
________________
Sum $20.000 USD

So after a 100 Trades in this example you would still end up in $20k profit to your account even if you lost half of the trades.

So if BigE said its realistic to have 150 Pips profit on average with a H4 HA 3-5 candles run. Even with a 50% win ratio (considered you traded all 100 signals) you should end up profitable and bleeding money. But the reality i see from my own accounts trading the TMS itīs far away from that....(at least for now..)

I canīt see these average gains for H4 trades like i said. And it requires you to achieve at least a 50% win ratio. Another problem is that you donīt get these many H4 valid signals within a month or you would have to monitor a dozens of pairs to reach such monthly stats.

Thats why i also asked for proofs its not only interesting to see TDI cross trades taken good or bad i more like interested in making money constantly and not see how this is done by people trading the TMS but nobody actually here seems to do that, all trading for a few little pennies here and there :/ So this is no magic, but i talk about long term constant profits on a monthly base.
  • #91,833
  • Oct 9, 2018 7:22am Oct 9, 2018 7:22am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes but the point is when you expect 50% of the signals to work out and you treat each trade with a fixed SL = 40 Pips, TP= 80 Pips, thats means for 100 Trades Loss | 50 x 40 Pips (EUR/USD, 1 Lot) = - 2000 Pips Win | 50 x 80 Pips (EUR/USD 1 Lot) = + 4.000 Pips OR Loss = $20.000 USD Win = $40.000 USD ________________ Sum $20.000 USD So after a 100 Trades in this example you would still end up in $20k profit to your account even if you lost half of the trades. So if BigE said its realistic to have 150 Pips profit on average with a H4 HA 3-5...
Yes if you have a fixed stop loss it works fine with only 50% of wins. Or if you have a fixed percentage of your account as a stop loss it also works fine, I just meant if you have a variable stop loss then it can't be worked out that way.

When I have the time to trade because I'm not travelling with my husband, I make on average 25% per week, which is why I put up the trade explorer to show it is possible, unfortunately we are still travelling about so its been a bit difficult to get to the trades I want to. However, I don't trade h4 its too slow for me, I trade m30 with a view on h4. If I traded h4 it would be with a view to the D1 chart and TDI.
Success means going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm
  • #91,834
  • Oct 9, 2018 7:22am Oct 9, 2018 7:22am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes but when i trade the H4 the first candle posted by my broker would be 08:00 am GMT +3, london open. Now the next H4 candle would be posted 12:00 am which is 11:00 am my time. Now around that time i normally donīt have time to check my charts for exists as i am involved in a lot of other stuff. But i got a trade management indicator now doing automatic SL, breakeven and trailing stop (if the trade is in profit). If anyone interested its this one {file} Lets see how this works. However i think the H4 doesnīt fit well with my personality...

Just that I am curious how USDCAD would have performed this year if we would have taken every trade setup following 100% mechanical setup conditions.
I backtested using my broker's H4 live data Jan to Oct 05 2018 with price action entry using the PAC and with TDI confirmation. Same BE move set to 25pips and Jumping SL set to 25pips.
The win rate is 53%. This win rate is quite the same I have tested for all the 8 pairs using 10 years historical data.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD H4 Jan 01 to Oct 05 2018 backtest PAC and TDI.png Size: 68 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #91,835
  • Oct 9, 2018 7:37am Oct 9, 2018 7:37am
Quoting lisat
{quote}Yes if you have a fixed stop loss it works fine with only 50% of wins. Or if you have a fixed percentage of your account as a stop loss it also works fine, I just meant if you have a variable stop loss then it can't be worked out that way. When I have the time to trade because I'm not travelling with my husband, I make on average 25% per week, which is why I put up the trade explorer to show it is possible, unfortunately we are still travelling about so its been a bit difficult to get to the trades I want to. However, I don't trade h4 its...
'
Exactly thats what i mean, with H4 i canīt see this. You donīt find a lot of good signals on H4 to make a weekly/monthly outcome thats relevant. Sure you get less noise and maybe the signals are "stronger" but lets say you reach a 80% win ratio like that with these stronger signals.

Less trades means you would need to trade multiple lots per trade to make at least some money you can build a living on. Meaning far more risk to take on a smaller account (actually you canīt handle this on a small account with H4 and only a few trades per month) or you need equity somewhere in the millions at least.

25% on average per week is very good for m30, how many trades on average you do per month for that time frame?
  • #91,836
  • Oct 9, 2018 7:49am Oct 9, 2018 7:49am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Just that I am curious how USDCAD would have performed this year if we would have taken every trade setup following 100% mechanical setup conditions. I backtested using my broker's H4 live data Jan to Oct 05 2018 with price action entry using the PAC and with TDI confirmation. Same BE move set to 25pips and Jumping SL set to 25pips. The win rate is 53%. This win rate is quite the same I have tested for all the 8 pairs using 10 years historical data. {image}

Hey thanks for providing this. I also tested this once but not very familar with the strategy tester. Also it would require you to have some EA trading these PAC with TDI confirmation setups you talking about. May i ask what you are using here and whats the quality of the tick data the test is on?
  • #91,837
  • Oct 9, 2018 8:10am Oct 9, 2018 8:10am
Does anyone think HA candles are of any use? They are supposed to "smooth" price action but in my opinion they only make analysis more difficult by hiding price action.
Videsha Mudal Welenda
  • #91,838
  • Oct 9, 2018 8:28am Oct 9, 2018 8:28am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Just that I am curious how USDCAD would have performed this year if we would have taken every trade setup following 100% mechanical setup conditions. I backtested using my broker's H4 live data Jan to Oct 05 2018 with price action entry using the PAC and with TDI confirmation. Same BE move set to 25pips and Jumping SL set to 25pips. The win rate is 53%. This win rate is quite the same I have tested for all the 8 pairs using 10 years historical data. {image}
You see, average 1:1 ratio, average loss trade is almost the same as average win per trade.
  • #91,839
  • Oct 9, 2018 8:57am Oct 9, 2018 8:57am
Quoting lddd
25% on average per week is very good for m30, how many trades on average you do per month for that time frame?
Usually between 1 and 2 per day.
Success means going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm
  • #91,840
  • Oct 9, 2018 8:58am Oct 9, 2018 8:58am
Quoting VanTharp
Does anyone think HA candles are of any use? They are supposed to "smooth" price action but in my opinion they only make analysis more difficult by hiding price action.
I like them on the smaller timeframes because otherwise there are so many candle patterns that it clouds things and the HA candles smooth that, but on the higher timeframes I take them off as I like to see the real candle.
Success means going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm
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