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  • #91,801
  • Oct 8, 2018 1:17pm Oct 8, 2018 1:17pm
Quoting lddd
What about this H4 short signal but where my Daily Chart shows strong bullish bars but the direction looks sideways/bearish. The signal otherwise looks strong to me on the H4. TDI green good steep angle, Stoch confirming. But both TDI and Stoch are at 68, 80 so overbought. But thats actually a good sign for a possible short trade right? {image} {image}
h4 is making lower swing lows, and "maybe" now a lower swing high, and the tdi and stoch have moved below the overbought area. Its better to wait until the tdi and stoch move below the 68 level anything above it simply shows a strong trend on that timeframe, not that it is likely to short well. Daily also made a lower swing low on 1st October, there is also a trendline if you join the points on D1 where it turned, along with the monthly pivot which you don't have on your chart, all in all I would say I would take that.
Success means going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm
  • #91,802
  • Oct 8, 2018 1:32pm Oct 8, 2018 1:32pm
Quoting lisat
You should always wait until a candle closes it can spike up then back down, its only a closed candle that will tell you the price action
This post is a digression from the main topic of this thread -- but I can't help myself...

There is only tick data -- that is, there is no such thing as OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close bars). OHLC is an artificial construct that compresses tick data to make it easier for humans to use for storage, display, back testing, etc. The data feeds from banks has no concept about "bars".

Using H1 as an example, the "Open" price is the first tick immediately after the hour. The "Close" price is the last tick just before the hour ends. And this brings up an interesting point. Since ticks arrive at random intervals, then how do (or your broker) know which is the "Closing" price? They don't -- at least not until after the fact.

Suppose a tick arrives 30 seconds before the hour ends -- is that going to be the last tick? But then another arrives 10 seconds before the hour ends, is that the last one? There is no way of knowing. Only after the hour ends can you (actually, the MT4 software) then go back and designate which was the last tick and, hence, the "Closing" price.

All ticks are created equal. Just because a tick is designated as "Open" or "High" or "Low" or "Close" doesn't give it any extra meaning. There are so many ticks that arrive at random intervals there is no way our brains could make sense of all the data. Using OHLC makes it easier for humans to analyze and process the real, tick data.
  • #91,803
  • Oct 8, 2018 2:06pm Oct 8, 2018 2:06pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} This post is a digression from the main topic of this thread -- but I can't help myself... There is only tick data -- that is, there is no such thing as OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close bars). OHLC is an artificial construct that compresses tick data to make it easier for humans to use for storage, display, back testing, etc. The data feeds from banks has no concept about "bars". Using H1 as an example, the "Open" price is the first tick immediately after the hour. The "Close" price is the last tick just before the hour ends. And this brings...
Yes you're right of course,
Quote
Using OHLC makes it easier for humans to analyze and process the real, tick data
but as we can look at a chart and know that the last hour for instance was bullish or bearish overall with all the ticks received, it gives an idea of sentiment and thats what we need to make a decision.
Success means going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm
  • #91,804
  • Edited 2:20pm Oct 8, 2018 2:09pm | Edited 2:20pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} This post is a digression from the main topic of this thread -- but I can't help myself... There is only tick data -- that is, there is no such thing as OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close bars). OHLC is an artificial construct that compresses tick data to make it easier for humans to use for storage, display, back testing, etc. The data feeds from banks has no concept about "bars". Using H1 as an example, the "Open" price is the first tick immediately after the hour. The "Close" price is the last tick just before the hour ends. And this brings...
Whats your point? That there is no open/closing price for a bar/candle?

You can use a tick chart if you like to have live price but i guess it will heavy slow down your cpu, not sure never worked with tick charts. Also not sure where it should help if your strategy is not based on automated high frequency algo trading where your bot hunts for a 1-2 pip profit?...
  • #91,805
  • Oct 8, 2018 2:23pm Oct 8, 2018 2:23pm
Quoting lisat
but as we can look at a chart and know that the last hour for instance was bullish or bearish overall with all the ticks received, it gives an idea of sentiment and thats what we need to make a decision.
Yes -- exactly. By condensing the data then OHLC helps us deduce the overall "sentiment" which, in turn, helps us to make decisions about the future. Without OHLC there is no way we could make guesses about the future -- and that is all we are doing, making guesses.

Quoting lddd
Whats your point? That there is no open/closing price for a bar/candle?
No point in particular. Just that there is no real thing as "Closing" price. According to MT4, the "Closing" price is defined as the last tick just before the time frame ends. But they could just as readily defined the "Closing" price as the 3rd-to-last tick. Currently MT4 makes available the current time frames: M1, M5, M15, M30, H1, H4, D1, W1, MN. But they could just as easily add additional time frames such as M1.256, M47.5, H2, and so on. It's just a question of where to place boundaries between tick data.

If there was a point I guess it would be this. Yes -- pay attention to the OHLC bar data since that is what our brain is used to looking at and it helps us to make decisions. But also keep in mind you can pull the trigger at any time to open or close a trade. It doesn't have to be exactly on the boundary between time frames.

Just to be clear -- I was not suggesting to use tick data. That would be a disaster...
  • #91,806
  • Oct 8, 2018 6:21pm Oct 8, 2018 6:21pm
Waiting patiently for my set-up.

Interestingly, just one more win than loss each week (av.) spells success.....So I don't have to trade much.

.
  • #91,807
  • Oct 8, 2018 6:38pm Oct 8, 2018 6:38pm
Still not sure about TDI exit?

CONSERVATIVE EXIT

Quoting eelfranz
TDI Roll Over or hooking over Exit Signals: {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Big E post 128 TDI roll over.png Size: 155 KB


Quoting eelfranz
WHEN TO EXIT ----------------- OK there appears to be some confusion here... According to the rules you exit when the TDI GREEN LINE goes flat, check mark reversal or hooks over.... this is for the conserative trader and works great. However.... note the blue box on the TDI below. See how the green line archs like a worm crawling up the red line without crossing red. You could have stayed in the whole trade without exiting until green crossed red finally....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Big E post 7612.png Size: 202 KB


lots of training charts to study and take notes.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #91,808
  • Oct 8, 2018 6:55pm Oct 8, 2018 6:55pm
I've started experimenting using Renko charts with TMS. As with everything in life, there are trade-offs. TMS requires a combination of signal plus trend. Normal charts are good at detecting a signal, but require more detective work to confirm the trend. In contrast, Renko charts tend to smooth data and make the trend more obvious. I've included two charts below for comparison -- Renko EURUSD and EURUSD/H1.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Renko-EURUSD.png Size: 57 KB
  • #91,809
  • Oct 8, 2018 6:56pm Oct 8, 2018 6:56pm
USDJPY Week 41 Oct 08 H4

what the chart looked like if you use the TDI Red Green version in Post#25, the same version Big E used.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Week 41 Oct08 H4 TDI exit examples.png Size: 40 KB


if you use another version, the results would be different.

if you use the newer version Synergy_Pro_TDI, your charts will be very different. So don't mix the TMS rules written by Big E when you use this latest Pro version of the TDI.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #91,810
  • Oct 8, 2018 7:08pm Oct 8, 2018 7:08pm
Quoting PeterE
Waiting patiently for my set-up. Interestingly, just one more win than loss each week (av.) spells success.....So I don't have to trade much. .

What about CADJPY D1 charts sell when day open?

Use PAC for setup candle.

Trade management:
Initial Stop Loss above previous 2 days high.... Risk R.
BE when price move +25pips.
Jumping Stop set at 25pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY Week 41 Oct 09 D1 open sell.png Size: 49 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #91,811
  • Oct 8, 2018 7:25pm Oct 8, 2018 7:25pm
EURJPY Week 41 Oct 08 H4 POMO

which do you look at first? when you have open trades and doing your trade management.

1) first TDI then second PA or

2) first PA then second TDI

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY Week 41 Oct 08 H4 POMO.png Size: 46 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #91,812
  • Oct 8, 2018 7:41pm Oct 8, 2018 7:41pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} What about CADJPY D1 charts sell when day open?....

It's not my sort of set-up. But good luck.
  • #91,813
  • Oct 8, 2018 8:04pm Oct 8, 2018 8:04pm
I have 2 trades. Sell UJ and Sell EJ on D1.
It is true with our TMS system?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-10-08_205047 sell AJ.png Size: 27 KB
  • #91,814
  • Oct 8, 2018 8:24pm Oct 8, 2018 8:24pm
One more setup

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #91,815
  • Edited Oct 9, 2018 5:34pm Oct 8, 2018 10:26pm | Edited Oct 9, 2018 5:34pm
can we trade just market structure and TDI?

edit: add transaction record

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #91,816
  • Oct 9, 2018 12:39am Oct 9, 2018 12:39am
Quoting lisat
{quote} h4 is making lower swing lows, and "maybe" now a lower swing high, and the tdi and stoch have moved below the overbought area. Its better to wait until the tdi and stoch move below the 68 level anything above it simply shows a strong trend on that timeframe, not that it is likely to short well. Daily also made a lower swing low on 1st October, there is also a trendline if you join the points on D1 where it turned, along with the monthly pivot which you don't have on your chart, all in all I would say I would take that.
Good analysis. and nice to see that you have a live TE.
Videsha Mudal Welenda
  • #91,817
  • Oct 9, 2018 1:25am Oct 9, 2018 1:25am
My UCAD H4 short trade 8 hours later...

Actually thats the situation i end up most of the time with H4 so far (testing H4 for 4 weeks now, took about 6 trades, 5 were losers where the setup looked promising like this one).

I am about 10 pips minus now. Regarding to BigEīs static exit rule exit on a checkmark i probably will be giving back another 30-40 pips...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad-h4-fxopen-investments-inc-3.png Size: 139 KB
  • #91,818
  • Oct 9, 2018 1:41am Oct 9, 2018 1:41am
Quoting lddd
My UCAD H4 short trade 8 hours later... Actually thats the situation i end up most of the time with H4 so far (testing H4 for 4 weeks now, took about 6 trades, 5 were losers where the setup looked promising like this one). I am about 10 pips minus now. Regarding to BigEīs static exit rule exit on a checkmark i probably will be giving back another 30-40 pips... {image}
Your stop loss should be above the swing high, it may still hit it but will give you more chance of not especially at this time in the morning where it will swing all over the place sometimes when Frankfurt has opened. This is why I like to watch the h4 and take the trade on m30 it gives you a chance to get in earlier usually, it would have meant going in at 1.2991 which gives more room and less of a stop loss.
Success means going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm
  • #91,819
  • Oct 9, 2018 2:36am Oct 9, 2018 2:36am
Quoting PeterE
can we trade just market structure and TDI? . {image}

I believe so... as long as a trader is armed with the fundamental bias behind or at times with own trained intuition when looking at the market structure (without shape fitting bias).
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #91,820
  • Oct 9, 2018 3:33am Oct 9, 2018 3:33am
Quoting lisat
{quote}Your stop loss should be above the swing high, it may still hit it but will give you more chance of not especially at this time in the morning where it will swing all over the place sometimes when Frankfurt has opened. This is why I like to watch the h4 and take the trade on m30 it gives you a chance to get in earlier usually, it would have meant going in at 1.2991 which gives more room and less of a stop loss.
I think watching the shorter time frame for some earlier entry is not what BigE was doing. Setting the stop to the last swing high would mean a 40 pips stop loss in this case, thats a possible $400 loss on a 1 lot position, compared to what? So i would need to set my first TP at around 80 pips for proper money management for a 1:2 risk/reward.

Now do you see a 80 pips short run here? Looking back at my last H4 trades in 4 out of 5 trades i would have stopped out on exactly such swing high/low. Canīt post my charts for the last H4 trades at the moment but try to do so later on.

Quoting eelfranz
HA candles average a 3-8 candle run in most cases when it reverses... That's why I want to enter on candle 1 or 2 if I see a set up. A single candle on the 4hr nets you 30-60 pips or more generally. If it goes 3-4 candles you've already made 80-150 pips
Now, for how many H4 trades this would have been the case for the last 30 days on average for all pairs traded by BigE ?

Have you ever done a recent backtest here? I donīt, but already my pure feelings say that it were not a lot. Why you need a lot? Well, lets say you want to achieve a constant profit by the end of the month. If you only get a 10 valid signals where half of them would worked out for a 1:2 risk reward, so 50% win ratio. This would mean you would have been FORCED to enter on ALL THESE 10 Signals. Not only the ones you cherry pick out of these 10. ALL of them.

Its simple math: To achieve X percentage results by X trades on average you need to trade all signals you have on average otherwise the calculation canīt work out..

I think these kind of things are far more important than finding a good TDI cross signal.

Lets assume you only trade H4 and you only trade 1 major currency pair

- How many valid TDI cross setups in sum?
- Whats the percentage win ratio compared to the onces would have stopped out at swing high/low?
- What are the chances you would have entered on all of them (the X factor if you trade manually compared to a robot...)

Please post a list to me with the exact pairs BigE was trading. (canīt find them from the rules or his posts) so i can look at the last 6 month and will do a manual backtest by trying to find all these valid H4 TDI signals and calculate them by a 1:2 risk reward ratio. I think this would help a lot here to see whats possible and whats not instead of guessing on and having TMS traders here picking trades on random and posting their cherry picks. Its only confusing and wonīt give anyone a realistic picture of what is possible and whats not.
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