EURUSD

Next resistance in 1.16.

D1 retracement? agreed

The pair rebounded to 1.1542 the immediate resistance level, but the dollar remains strong. Eur/Usd is expected to continue its correction movements ahead of NFP on Friday.

Decent growth – obviously supported by the tax cuts at the beginning of the year – a booming labour market and that combined with very moderate inflation rates. The US economy could hardly be in a better position. Only one thing does not fit into this otherwise perfect picture: the low interest rate levels. Of course, the US central bank has already hiked interest rates eight times in this cycle, but the key rate still remains at 2-2.25% and thus well below pre-crisis levels and certainly below the levels that one would expect in view of such strong economic performance. Now Fed chair Jay Powell fuelled hopes a few days ago that this might well change in future. He promised rate hikes that might even exceed the neutral interest rate level, which initially allowed US dollar to appreciate. It was interesting to see though that the positive effect of his comments did not last very long. To be honest that does not surprise me. Of course the incessant rise in employment above all results in upside risks for inflation, key rates and thus the US dollar, but we are only ever talking about risks not facts. As a result I would be cautious to bet on a renewed USD appreciation trend merely on the basis of Powell’s comments. His concerns that inflation pressure would rise considerably due to an overheating US economy has yet to materialise. Inflation may have returned to the Fed’s target. However, price developments remain much more sluggish than one would have assumed in view of an economy growing above potential and a labour market running this well. Even Powell admits that this continues to constitute a “mystery”.

Admittedly we have usually downplayed the relevance of the US labour market report for the USD over the past months. This was due to the fact that the market has now sufficiently priced the Fed’s rate hike cycle into the exchange rates. However, I am beginning to think that the data might become more significant again now that the debate as to how much longer the rate hike cycle is actually going to continue for are actually starting. So far it could be assumed that an end would be foreseeable as early as next year, as interest rates would then approach the neutral level, which the Fed sees at around 3%. However, this was based on the assumption that inflation would not get much stronger. And this is the main uncertainty. The incorrect predictions over the past years have shown that we do not totally understand inflation dynamics. Experts are still disagreeing to this day whether the Philips curve – the relation between unemployment rate and price levels – is still alive and if so to what extent? In the end only the hard data will tell us that, so that a glance at today’s labour market report might well pay off.

I´ve gone over to post fundamental observations in the thread "Fundamental Trading". I´ll post on a regular basis there, aspects which I consider short term macro drivers as the market opinion swings from one phase or idea to the next, all relative to short term price swings.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post11550974

I'll be honest. I simply cannot predict the NFP numbers.
Nor the market reaction to the NFP numbers.
Therefore, trading today is nonsense ...to me.
Good luck to you !

I know you will come back sometime today and open a position.

Haha, good one! Are you sure about that? You have the confidence of someone who believe he can predict things

Traders are like snake, they say one thing and do other thing lol.
We're the same.
Analyze this and do the opposite and win/loss

I'm not a snake. I use to post real live trading here. And never hindsight jobs.
I really haven't traded the NFP Friday for years !
Ok, maybe just narrow range OCO pendings ahead the release time just on some Demo for fun

He was kidding, at least i think he was. Trading the NFP by itself is never a good idea (imo) unless you have a solid technical plan and stop loss in place. If you do, then nfp is just another day...you can get stop lossed in a 5 pip bank holiday trading range, why does it matter? You have 100% win in non-news days?

Me and Tudor are FB friend lol.

Cool man. Keep up the good work boss.

No problem, boss!
Of course he's kidding, we know each other for a long time.
Oh, not quite 100% win ...very rarely I have to recover like 8-9 SLs applying very risky lot size and target widening and run for BE

8-9 stop losses, if it catches you on the wrong side during the nfp, it can break you, yea no way you can trade it then, i understand. What you're doing sounds very risky to me though, i probably couldn't do it even non-news days. Guess that's why some people have all the money, eh?

No pain, no gain!

I think a good NFP is already price in so, today we might see an upward correction on EUR/USD.

FX markets were little changed with the greenback remaining in a tight range ahead of the key US jobs data later. EUR/USD and GBP/USD held onto the 1.1500 handle.

ECB's Coeure (Neutral) said ECB is working on all Brexit scenarios, including a hard Brexit. He said more time is needed to stabilise Eurozone inflation around 2%. He said ECB will continue to support the stability of the euro area as a whole, sees a gradual pick-up in price pressures; Eurozone economy in the best shape it has been in years.

Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 BST:
EUR/USD: 1.1450 (2.1 BLN), 1.1500 (1.5 BLN), 1.1525-35 (0.500 BLN) 1.1545-55 (0.500 BLN), 1.1575-85 (1.0 BLN) and 1.1600 (1.0 BLN).

Well got in today long @ 1.1513 on EUR/USD with a stop @ 1.1442 and with a target @ 1.1700. If it breaks below 1.1442 I will reverse position with a target @ 1.1300.

Place your bets ladies and gentlemen!
Here's mine: payrolls 200K, earnings 4% ...EUR/USD short!
Les jeux sont faits rien ne va plus!

Here it goes:

Now the only question is...will the numbers matter like how they did in the june nfp or...? Trust thy numbers!!