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Binary Trading made simple

  • #121
  • Jul 14, 2014 10:48am Jul 14, 2014 10:48am
Quoting nervesof
{quote} Because when you win, you win 70-80%, i.e trade $100 and gain $70-80 but when you lose you lose 100%, so you'd be making a loss on every trade.
So then, that proves both the risk reward ratio is actually negative, and the actual percentage of wins it takes to be profitable is much higher than most people view...i'll stick to spot price trading, thank you.
Too close for pips, switching to points.
  • #122
  • Jul 14, 2014 11:27am Jul 14, 2014 11:27am
Quoting Thepipster
{quote} So then, that proves both the risk reward ratio is actually negative, and the actual percentage of wins it takes to be profitable is much higher than most people view...i'll stick to spot price trading, thank you.
Yes, most people miscalculate the break even point for profitability.
You have to have 70 to 80 percent win ratio to be profitable.
Which for experienced traders is not impossible.
  • #123
  • Jul 16, 2014 4:17pm Jul 16, 2014 4:17pm
Quoting chazw661
{quote} Yes, most people miscalculate the break even point for profitability. You have to have 70 to 80 percent win ratio to be profitable. Which for experienced traders is not impossible.
Depending on the payout, break even is around 56% so with a 70 to 80% win ratio you'd be well into profit.

10 trades @ $100, 7 winners, 3 losers (i.e. 70% winning ratio) with a 70% payout gives you a net profit of $190
Ditto with 6 winners, 4 losers (i.e. 60% winning ratio) net profit of $ 20

10 trades @ $100, 7 winners, 3 losers (i.e. 70% winning ratio) with an 80% payout gives you a net profit of $260
Ditto with 6 winners, 4 losers (i.e. 60% winning ratio) net profit of $80
  • #124
  • Jul 17, 2014 7:47pm Jul 17, 2014 7:47pm
Quoting chazw661
{quote} Thanks PANCO, I will check it out! I am pretty much using the 1m chart to look at entry. Using 5m for support resistance etc. The Genesis indicator on the 5 min chart also gives you trend for 15m.
I am not fond of the 5min chart but it is quite popular for scalping. Take my word for this, stay off the 1m chart.
"The Market is Not Evil, it Simply Separates Dumb People From Their Money."
  • #125
  • Jul 18, 2014 11:05pm Jul 18, 2014 11:05pm
I have been doing some tests with chart times vs. Expiry. I really think its a personal preference at this point. Since Binaries are based on time...once in a trade, not stop loss etc..your pretty much along for the ride (unless you implement some crazy Martingale strategy. The craziest thing I have ever run across!) the trick is to get in the market, and get out..the only way out is to expire...BEFORE the market turns moves against you. Unless your doing end of day Expiry then its more along the lines of reading the daily trend.

So...the tests I ran over the last week have shown for scalping 2-3 minute expiry works pretty well. If you get into a decent move in a direction and ride that one with 2 minute expiry after another until you see indicators of a reversal. Daily trend is still your friend as those moves obviously last longer.
15 minute expiry turned out all week to be way more difficult unless the market is making some large moves at just the right time. With no way out if you get a big enough retracement at the wrong time your done.
In short, scalping a move with 2 to 4 minute expiry and longer end of day expiry started to run 55 to 70 percent win ration. Granted, trading certain US and London market hours when markets move and other general trading discipline as I have always done with Forex.

The 1 minute chart for scalping worked really well, as well as the 5 min chart to look for support and resistance and trend following. I used with heikin ashi Candles and line chart behind it to see where price was in regards to how large the ashi shadow. I think the reason the 1 minute chart worked for scalping was because it gave me a better view of short term price movements. When to get in (price is at top of candle for short, bottom for long) and where to stop scaling in 2 minute expiry ( ashi reversal candle etc..). It also helped that the broker data feed seemed to be lagging or had some latency. So the entry prices I get are a little behind what MT4 chart is doing. When following along.
With the 5 minute chart, my candle would not close before expiry and its hard to tell where to enter etc...as the difference in price in 2 mins can be very small.
I can see the 5 min chart working for 15 to 30 to 1hr expiry but like I mentioned, binary s with no way out when a retracement hit at the wrong time were way more difficult.
Scalping with the 1 min chart on a moving trend was like taking candy from a baby at times.

Daily expiry were just that. Normal look at previous supp res levels on longer chart, and entered off 15 or 30 minute chart. Pretty straight forward. But once again, only with trend and other regular trading disciplines. With no way out you have to make sure its going to move enough to give it room to move back some so you don't get shut out at the end of the daily expiry. Trend is your friend.

Just my results from last week.
Anyone with different results please chime in! Its very interesting to see a different dynamic to trading that binaries bring.

And thank you Panco, I found a great Market Profile Indicator last week. It helps tremendously.
  • #126
  • Aug 11, 2014 7:03am Aug 11, 2014 7:03am
A simple 5 minutes expiry trade setup 9/10 win ratio..tested at 24option
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #127
  • Aug 18, 2014 8:43am Aug 18, 2014 8:43am
The result above looks interesting.

More info on your method will be appreciated.
  • #128
  • Aug 29, 2014 2:18pm Aug 29, 2014 2:18pm
This thread dead? I am hoping to hear more from B.O traders
  • #129
  • Jan 4, 2015 8:01pm Jan 4, 2015 8:01pm
Is this thread still alive? Has anyone used CLM forex(Core liquidity markets), GDMFx New Zealand or Directfx for binary options trading? Feedback would be appreciated. Thanks
  • #130
  • Nov 8, 2016 4:16pm Nov 8, 2016 4:16pm
Quoting chaosbun
Did a Long For GBP/USD for this NY session with approx 15 mins expiration {image} Strategy used: Support at the highlighted area seen !
Hi chaosbun,
If you are still there, can you show us your trades using the attached indicator?
Thanks,
RS
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 show my trades.ex4   12 KB | 428 downloads
  • #131
  • Oct 3, 2018 3:53am Oct 3, 2018 3:53am
I know this is long dead but i want to ask a question and put my 2 cents here.

First my 2 cents.

Binary is just win/loss. So if profit payout is anything above 50% you are profitable if you are winning 2 out of 3 times. I.e. 2 win and 1 loss.

Lets compare this to sport trading. Order initiated at spot price. Now price has to remain above this spot price for trade to be profitable. But a profitable trade does not mean you will get greater than 50% return on risk. it could also mean you could get 50 thousand% but there are many variables involved here that influence your decision. Regardless, here your betting to keep moving above/below spot price for some defined time whereas in binary your betting to stay above/below strike price for some defined time.

Considering the above, unless you are getting above 50% returns (as compared to SL position) on all spot trades you are making a loss if you are winning 2 out of 3 trades and vice versa.

So my question is why are binaries so frowned upon. I understand Gurus like to preach spot trading because theres a number of things they can do to confuse people and stay in business. With binary i guess theres not much you can preach. Either youre doing it right or your doing it wrong. So whats the catch what am i missing?
  • #132
  • Oct 3, 2018 4:45pm Oct 3, 2018 4:45pm
Quoting goldfish3
I know this is long dead but i want to ask a question and put my 2 cents here. First my 2 cents. Binary is just win/loss. So if profit payout is anything above 50% you are profitable if you are winning 2 out of 3 times. I.e. 2 win and 1 loss. Lets compare this to sport trading. Order initiated at spot price. Now price has to remain above this spot price for trade to be profitable. But a profitable trade does not mean you will get greater than 50% return on risk. it could also mean you could get 50 thousand% but there are many variables involved...
Well what you have said is more than a mouthful...

Binary options is good for those who want to participate in the markets but would want to do it in a less complicated way.

For instance let's say you developed a strategy that is atleast 70% accurate, which would of course be timed based. The specifications of time would be based on the candle timeframe the alert occurs on plus the average number of candles required for completion of the pattern or movement.
Now Let's say The strategy is based on a reversal candle pattern and it requires two candles for completion. The alert happened on m30 chart, then in this case the expiry should be a perfect time of 1hour, no less no more since that is the rule of the system.

Finding the regulated broker, licensed to operate within the financial markets under the relevant governing bodies which requires them by law not work against their clients then all is well.

The problem most persons have is not following the requirements of completing the process of account verification, sending the required documents and waiting for the process of being verified so they can withdraw their funds upon request. The next issue is taking all these bonuses and protected trades, insured trades etc etc... When you can avoid all of that then you are on your way. Brokers that call their clients a lot be very careful with those ones.

Now if you tell a ten year old how to do it with them aiming for the balance to increase in order for them to successfully do it, with their agreed award of a new bicycle in the end , you will be surprised to see the way they are exact with their actions according to specifications.
R:R "Percentage Focus"
  • #133
  • Oct 3, 2018 5:28pm Oct 3, 2018 5:28pm
Like currently i am testing a 4hour method, I really wanted end of day which is 8 hours or a day. However I am not ready yet.
I can do from 3 minutes to whenever, I also have some on for a 1 month as expiry based on a pattern.
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R:R "Percentage Focus"
  • #134
  • Oct 4, 2018 4:27am Oct 4, 2018 4:27am
Quoting PrinceJ58
{quote} Well what you have said is more than a mouthful... Binary options is good for those who want to participate in the markets but would want to do it in a less complicated way. For instance let's say you developed a strategy that is atleast 70% accurate, which would of course be timed based. The specifications of time would be based on the candle timeframe the alert occurs on plus the average number of candles required for completion of the pattern or movement. Now Let's say The strategy is based on a reversal candle pattern and it requires...
Your response makes considerable sense. However I do believe traders who have been profitable verify their accounts.

Having said that my question above was geared towards the return characteristics of binaries. I've been trolling around forums, like this one, for quite some years, and pretty much every, supposedly, experienced user here has one thing in common. "A trade is not a trade unless your return is greater than 100% or 1:1". Some even go do far as to say 1:2 R:R. These traders rarely post regular trades, almost always after-the-fact and never share their account balances.

These same traders then speak about risking 3 to 5% of the account per trade. And then they go on to say making a 3 to 5% return a month is excellent in Forex. Even if these traders were making 3 to 5% a month they would all be multi-millionaires by now considering the time they have spent on this forum. If i was one of them id go run for president, like Trump. The only thing certain here is there there is no way each traders target is set at 1:1 R:R or more no chance.

Now buy-and-hold strategies don't work in Forex, unlike equities. There is no body managing Forex like there are a company of people managing a corp. I can sit with the management every month or so and decide if they are making the right decisions and decide what i want to do with the stock. But i cant see an interest rate hike and decide to hold a currency for 6 months because i know what is going to happen. I don't even think a country can do that. For example the Malaysian central bank losses i think last year trading currencies. And if it was so easy for central banks to just trade Forex on information and make money why would London feel the need to rig LIBOR?

But I can say with some confidence that short-term technical analysis does work. Probably because of algorithms and robots that make subjective S/R or S/D levels react. But that's pretty much all you can predict and also not with complete certainty. So why chose spot over binaries when you can earn almost 80% on an easier decision making process on each trade. Risk remains the same one way or the other.

I've had considerable success in binaries but never anything in spot. But obviously I've never been on top because i just don't follow my rules. Get bored. Take bad trades get frustrated take more bad trades and end up shutting down for months. Then i restart, get profitable for a good while till i get back to 0 again. I've repeated this done this so many times i cant even count anymore. Only in binary never spot.
  • #135
  • Oct 4, 2018 4:34am Oct 4, 2018 4:34am
Quoting PrinceJ58
Like currently i am testing a 4hour method, I really wanted end of day which is 8 hours or a day. However I am not ready yet. I can do from 3 minutes to whenever, I also have some on for a 1 month as expiry based on a pattern. {image}
As I said I restarted few days ago and again working well. So far. Just taking hourly candles after identifying S/R. Like maybe 1 or 2 trades a day. I don't even look at all the rest. So not spending much time on screen. The big trade you see is a "Frustration" trade. As you see i took 5 trades on the 3rd which is just wrong. I was bound to loose. While i was confident about the frustration trade i shouldve just stuck to 5$ as im using 5% risk.
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  • #136
  • Oct 4, 2018 9:20am Oct 4, 2018 9:20am
Quoting goldfish3
{quote} As I said I restarted few days ago and again working well. So far. Just taking hourly candles after identifying S/R. Like maybe 1 or 2 trades a day. I don't even look at all the rest. So not spending much time on screen. The big trade you see is a "Frustration" trade. As you see i took 5 trades on the 3rd which is just wrong. I was bound to loose. While i was confident about the frustration trade i shouldve just stuck to 5$ as im using 5% risk. {image}
So to summarize you are saying that you love binaries however at the same time eventhough you are profitable with it your not disciplined enough to stay the course for the long run. I hope you make several withdrawals along the way. Is your method able to be systematized? If so then probably something can workout for you...let me know. Personal message me if anything.
R:R "Percentage Focus"
  • #137
  • Last Post: Oct 4, 2018 9:21am Oct 4, 2018 9:21am
Quoting goldfish3
{quote} As I said I restarted few days ago and again working well. So far. Just taking hourly candles after identifying S/R. Like maybe 1 or 2 trades a day. I don't even look at all the rest. So not spending much time on screen. The big trade you see is a "Frustration" trade. As you see i took 5 trades on the 3rd which is just wrong. I was bound to loose. While i was confident about the frustration trade i shouldve just stuck to 5$ as im using 5% risk. {image}
Good stuff.
R:R "Percentage Focus"
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