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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #78,401
  • Oct 3, 2018 7:04am Oct 3, 2018 7:04am
currently I have only 2 scenarios that can happen and they both bearish. one suggest a quick spike to make new top then fall. and other is just fall direct without new high
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  • #78,402
  • Oct 3, 2018 7:13am Oct 3, 2018 7:13am
We just have to wait for some red news to get it going.
Dragon Rider
  • #78,403
  • Oct 3, 2018 7:25am Oct 3, 2018 7:25am
this thing is just bid right now, simple as that....I'd like to also see how a new high is handled...I'm marking 113.40/50 as immediate support, will be watching that for the rest of the day...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #78,404
  • Oct 3, 2018 7:42am Oct 3, 2018 7:42am
why this is so boring
  • #78,405
  • Oct 3, 2018 7:42am Oct 3, 2018 7:42am
Quoting PayTheLimit
this thing is just bid right now, simple as that....I'd like to also see how a new high is handled...I'm marking 113.40/50 as immediate support, will be watching that for the rest of the day...
in my opinion if price goes up to make new high it will not close 4h candle above 114.07 which means its only a spike

I am hoping we just continue down no need for new high hehe
  • #78,406
  • Oct 3, 2018 7:43am Oct 3, 2018 7:43am
Quoting f0nteide
why this is so boring
wait for December you will see the real boring
  • #78,407
  • Edited 8:22am Oct 3, 2018 7:59am | Edited 8:22am
Something to consider:

When a slow gradual channel forms, and price breaks the channel from aggression ( above on upper trend and below on a down trend). Price will try to find equilibrium more aggressively in the opposite direction. With that said many examples can be shown but I felt this one captures the similarities very nicely. One must remember this could all change at any time but just something to consider. And to hear your feedback is always welcome.

Below you will find UJ, have a slow gradual up trend (May 2017), broken higher, not met with much enthusiasm to move price higher. After 3.5 weeks price lost its mojo.

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Similarly to the current UJ situation, price has reduced its volatility waiting for some key levels to be broken. Price has broken above the channel but now facing a lower shoulder, cup/handle, bearish butterfly, reduced volume, price breaking the aggressive movement, higher US interest rates,


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One thing also to consider after the May 2017 break price retraced the full movement, for a 550 pip ride. Again not saying this could happen but something to be mindful of. If price were to follow this same concept currently that would be a 400 pip ride.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #78,408
  • Oct 3, 2018 8:04am Oct 3, 2018 8:04am
Quoting COGSx86
Something to consider: When a slow gradual channel forms, and price breaks the channel from aggression ( above on upper trend and below on a down trend). Price will try to find equilibrium more aggressively in the opposite direction. With that said many example can be shown but I felt this one captures the similarities very nicely. One must remember this could all change at any time but just something to consider. And to hear your feedback is always welcome. Below you will find UJ, have a slow gradual up trend (May 2017), broken higher, not met...
interesting chart and yes I see similarity. may be I let the short positions I have at the top run freely to below 112 if it happen loool but the lowers positions I need to close them at break even

I am around -100pips down
  • #78,409
  • Oct 3, 2018 8:11am Oct 3, 2018 8:11am
if you look at the daily I use 2 different harmonic indicators and they both gave me same results.

we are in a top its just a matter of top is placed already at 114.07 or one last spike above 114.07 before the fall

and as you can see the target of these patterns is going to be less than 113 level of course
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  • #78,410
  • Edited 8:23am Oct 3, 2018 8:13am | Edited 8:23am
Quoting msniper
{quote} interesting chart and yes I see similarity. may be I let the short positions I have at the top run freely to below 112 if it happen loool but the lowers positions I need to close them at break even I am around -100pips down

Average Price/ Breakeven currently is 113.836. Started entering short after price broke the short term consolidation. Previously was long, hit target @ 113.840 closed yesterday.
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #78,411
  • Oct 3, 2018 8:15am Oct 3, 2018 8:15am
lets ignore all the analysis scenarios and use just a simple tool. the Bollinger Bands

I like to use value 80 always

notice every time the price touch or go above the upper line we will have a strong down trend after it

so UJ now is above the upper line so I expect strong rejection to the down side
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  • #78,412
  • Oct 3, 2018 8:16am Oct 3, 2018 8:16am
Quoting msniper
if you look at the daily I use 2 different harmonic indicators and they both gave me same results. we are in a top its just a matter of top is placed already at 114.07 or one last spike above 114.07 before the fall and as you can see the target of these patterns is going to be less than 113 level of course {image}
Here are mine., 1 hour and 4 hour. I guess you could say they are confirming each other.
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #78,413
  • Oct 3, 2018 8:19am Oct 3, 2018 8:19am
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} Here are mine., 1 hour and 4 hour. I guess you could say they are confirming each other. {image} {image}
yes ABCD pattern also and the equal legs is 114.75 but hope we don't need to make it equal hahaha the top right now satisfy all the rules
  • #78,414
  • Oct 3, 2018 9:20am Oct 3, 2018 9:20am
strange one of my brokers have weird small gap
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  • #78,415
  • Oct 3, 2018 9:23am Oct 3, 2018 9:23am
Quoting msniper
currently I have only 2 scenarios that can happen and they both bearish. one suggest a quick spike to make new top then fall. and other is just fall direct without new high {image}
the market decided to choose the blue arrow scenario so it means I will be expecting the top to be between 114.16 to 114.40 MAX and it will be the end of this wave which started before 1 month
  • #78,416
  • Oct 3, 2018 9:47am Oct 3, 2018 9:47am
when I was waiting for the drop I was targeting 113. but after making new high now my target is changed and it became bigger.

I will be targeting between 110 to 112 for the drop it might take 1 to 2 weeks
  • #78,417
  • Oct 3, 2018 9:57am Oct 3, 2018 9:57am
I can see 15 swings now. this is a bearish sign to have 15 waves
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  • #78,418
  • Oct 3, 2018 10:15am Oct 3, 2018 10:15am
so far bearish div on daily and on 4h chart still valid
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  • #78,419
  • Oct 3, 2018 10:36am Oct 3, 2018 10:36am
I sold now at 114.20

my total short average now is 113.30
  • #78,420
  • Oct 3, 2018 10:39am Oct 3, 2018 10:39am
I am short as well. Haven’t traded this pair in a while since it’s been pretty boring but I think now is a good time to short.
You will learn the most from your losing Trades
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