Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Hi Alain, would there be any chance to just make a few short comments about what your chart is showing and the direction you see, as the guys that view this thread might not be to familiar with your work. Thanks Dave

Hi Dave, when Analyzing and / or Trading you cannot put on the side the Trend(s) of higher degrees

Parameters even close to the reality and operative in the Timeframe you use are RELATIVE and never absolute.

Ehlers has a good concept : Price Action is either in a Trending Mode or in a Cyclical Mode

In fact Price is always in a Cyclical mode but as a Curve can be described as a serie of successive Straight Lines , a Trend can be described and visually seen as a serie of Cycles of lesser or much lesser degree

here you can observe that the parameters in a Timeframe of 5 Days / 5 minutes are DOUBLE of the parameters used in 1 Day / 1 minute

It is also useful to analyze the next higher degree : here 1 Month / 30 minutes

you will note the impact of the Underlying Trend whose Jim Hurst tells us that it is the sum of all cycles of period greater than the observed one.

Here you see the Underlying Trend of the 128 Time Units Cycle (in ocre)
Trend 128 for now is more or less flat
Price Action fluctuates within the Envelope 128 around the Centered Moving Average 128 (ocre)
Centered Moving Averages 128 (ocre) and 256 (brown) are very close from each other,, more or less parallel and merging at time, building a strong Support Area

Hence to use your words , you observe on a 1 Month Time Frame
a) a chart shift
b) a jump in Price at a new level underlined by the Underlying Trend then you need a different scaling
c) a stabilization after the jump kind of "return to the mean" 128 and 256

Quoting OAPDave
In the home run to see if Murrey appears to reset the Oct date ? must say I was a little surprised with the DD at one stage {image}

A typical Head and Shoulders pattern where :

- Shoulder B (right ) level is slightly LOWER than Shoulder A (left) hence Trend should be slightly DOWN
- 3 Visually Dominant Cycles (yellow) of around 4.5 Time Intervals
-
- 1 Dominant Cycle of Higher degree (orange) with almost centered Top H - hence trend of Higher degree is Neutral / Flat - period could be = 3 x 4.5 Time Intervals

comparing Real Life to Theory

"Theoretical " Charts courtesy of Jim Hurst and Brian Millard

Quoting OAPDave
I have made a observation of the Break of 3 Octaves from the Open, now making further checks to compare different platforms Opens and also with your 576 the Octaves will not all be 15 pips for each pair {image} {image} {image} {image}

OAPDave, note the Commonality - Price Action behaviour between EURUSD and GBPUSD

Commonality is a "hurstian" concept which could be deepened to understand Index behaviour and manage Portfolios

Quoting OAPDave
I have made a observation of the Break of 3 Octaves from the Open, now making further checks to compare different platforms Opens and also with your 576 the Octaves will not all be 15 pips for each pair {image} {image} {image} {image}

Same comparison with USDCAD and AUDUSD

compare all patterns above with the Fractal of Chaos !

Quoting OAPDave
Alain are you saying in my terminology your looking at a Breakout of a congestion area, if so, I was taught that price comes out the same way it goes in ?

Dave it is a good question

a) note that you can observe
- a "positive" correlation for EUR / USD and GBP /USD
- a "negative" correlation for USD / CAD and AUD / USD

it would be interesting to check with CAD / USD pair and USD / AUD pair

b) your terminology of congestion area is the exact one

Wyckoff uses Accumulation and Distribution but you can only define the term after the fact Up or Down. Obviously you can guess, have a feeling , an opinion on the direction of the Trend, but you need to use other tools for that.

c) to estimate the probability of a breakout of a Congestion Area - cycles are useful to forecast an estimated time zone.

to forecast the direction of the breakout cycles and derivated tools are also useful - VTL, Underlying trend, Centered Moving Averages crossings () , FLD's

https://echoingwalls.com/blog/let-th...acci-sequence/

Fibonacci and music

OAPDave please copy your template and paste here please.

Dave , it would be good for everybody here that you post a detailed explanation of your trades even after the fact, because it is the best way to analyze how and why it works or not works

Hmm. it is very obvious that we are discussing what parisboy teach.
it has nothing to do with him.

Dave

it has nothing to do about posting trading "live" - it is a source of stress and brings nothing on the long term

analyzing past trades is the best way to learn how and why the methodology works and understand its limits

For me trading on a 1 mn and 5 mn on a demo account is IMHO the best way to learn in the real life

Hence you will see endlessly the same patterns and the same Price Action behaviour that you can after use on a greater Timeframe of your choice

Both use will improve your confidence in the methodology

PS Analyzing failuures is as important, sometimes more, than analyzing successes

Thank you. Perfectly correct so I have deleted my posts