USD/JPY Discussion

Now most of the traders here over last 2 weeks were predicting fall on this pair. Now it went down so what do they do? Open shorts. On the daily chart there is nice correction movement of the bigger upper swing. If 110.60 give up and price will go lower than I was wrong. Good thing is there is nothing wrong with being wrong if you know what you are doing.

Im curious what your bullishness has been based on? I know you have maintained your bullishness for some time now, but have never really provided what the reasoning was based on?

Funny also 110.6 was my target,

I am on bulls side unless 110.60 gets broken. It's clear TA. My target is 114 and I was not far from that point. I reduced 50% @112.50 and now following the market. I could show my chart with full analysis but I doubt you could read it and take any benefit of it without knowing the system.
110.30-110.60 is a buy zone to me.

BTW SunTrader...I like your status

Hmm, kicking myself as I saw 110.6 and figured it wouldn't be that difficult to penetrate... my target is is at 110.457 (figured I wasn't going to try and call the turn...meh). Now debating on waiting, or GTFO with current profit.

EDIT: Stayed and got my target. Stupidest way I could have made 60 pips, given I started in on 31 AUG and rode all through. Guess I have to work on entry a bit.

Target hit

bulls should be careful..Trump's words are important..i just got my 20 pips from shorting 100.70 to 100.50..wait and see mode now..

https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=818317

the dropped happened like I expected. now we should be looking for a bounce anytime soon

good luck

NFP shortly.

UJ can still drop to the 110.20 before flying again

USD/JPY recovered today but bulls stalled at 111.07, where currently the pair is located. A persistent upward potential might push bulls towards next resistance area around 111.30.

Now UJ going long M30... ...

Drumpf to the rescue. Must of thought the dollar was getting too "expensive". Stuck a fork in it.
A pitchfork:-

Here's my take on the USDJPY. We are not likely to get a strong momentum either bullish or bearish until the horizontal channel spanning 110.560/111.970 is breached.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

I don't subscribe to the idea that market movements occur randomly. Such ideas are assigned due to lack of understanding of market movement or structure. Market movement is a direct result of real buyers and sellers whether human or computer algorithm driven (created by humans). Buying and selling occurs based on decisions based in some type of "strategy". So while market movement may seem erratic at times it is not random. Having said that please consider the following:
1. Markets essentially move in waves. There are different characterizations of these "wave" or swings. I choose to characterize them using principles of median lines. However I am not going into any detail but rather will focus in on "pivots".
2. Pivots occur on every time frame no matter how small or big. I do not analyze markets on different time frames as I believe this type of analysis is erroneous but this topic is for another discussion.
3. In the attached 30 min chart labeled are A, B and C pivots. Each pivot is made up of components. I will concentrate on Pivot C and the Pivot after C.
4. Pivot C shows Yellow and blue WRB bullish gaps on the left followed by yellow and blue bearish gaps on the right.
5. Bullish effort on the left is overcome by bearish effort on the right that creates the pivot. Once pivots are created price may return quickly as seen in the blue pivot or later as seen today with the yellow.
6. Turning to PA below at the orange pivot we can see a similar situation where bearish effort on the left is overcome by bullish effort on the right. This results in price returning to the area where the yellow pivot was created.
7. When price reached the area of the yellow pivot on the right it reacted violently with a large bearish WRB suggesting sellers may be controlling this area.

Nothing in trading is for sure but I suggest nothing in trading is random and can be explained by those who seek understanding rather than excepting randomness as an explanation for their lack of understanding and in the end their lack of ability to trade profitably.

UJ's desire to maintain mean reversion makes this pair much more predictable technically speaking, along with EURGBP, then most other pairs. Although once you think you have a handle on something in trading it comes back to bite you in the ass.

Most of the traders overcomplicate it. Make it simple, set affordable goals and trade your plan. Stick to it. It always be up and down. And most important thing, take responsibility for your trading.

Well lets not overcomplicate things for this week ahead. Commercials have added to their long USDJPY positions, as well have Dealers. At the same time we see a inverse H+S on the 4 hour and a Flag on the daily.


Price could still move to 110.2 (or area) before making its way higher, but on the 4 hour we also have volume divergence, with a strong rejection of at 110.3 already and then 110.73 on friday, this show the markets desire to take this pair higher.

That's what I call simple and not overcompicated

Clean and Simple.

Small position taken on this pair. Bigger on other 2.

PA trading

for me the picture is somewhat mixed today, but I do have a bullish bias....my best play would be to wait till tomorrow before doing anything...