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Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

  • #141
  • Aug 29, 2018 4:50pm Aug 29, 2018 4:50pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Anytime anyone says that the market is not random, they are saying that there is a greater than 50% chance they will win that trade. If such a pattern existed, computer algos would pick it up very quickly and market makers would not fill you, at any price..
Such patterns do exist but not in a technical sense. Going back to today as an example but I could pull up many days like it every week. There was a 100% guarantee that price was going to react positively for the pound.

Computer algos already take advantage of this why do you think reaction to the news has all the hallmarks of being an algo. The instant the news is released price reacts and no human can react that fast. Market makers have an obligation to fill you. It's in their code of conduct at regulators so I really don't see how they can continue in this business if they did. They would be fined and if serious enough, lose their licence to operate.
  • #142
  • Aug 29, 2018 4:56pm Aug 29, 2018 4:56pm
As i am reading my last posts, some people may think that i am trying to prove that the market is solved or that i solved the market...lol. I wish. I am just open to the possibility, that is all. Maybe the market is random...i have no idea. No matter how much we learn, no matter where Forex or stocks end up, i believe there will always be someone less experienced than you, taking the other side of your trade. On every pip! So even if the market will ever be solved, some people will deny that and this is why you will never be able to state that the market is random. Or solved. It's impossible to prove this! So i realize now that this discussion is pointless. Good night!
  • #143
  • Aug 29, 2018 4:57pm Aug 29, 2018 4:57pm
Quoting Diverge
Listen traders......please stop all this speculisting on whether price is random or not....It's really sad to see you all struggle so I'm gonna do a rare thing, and post here on ff...Listen up and listen well...the reason many of you are yet to be profitable is not so much about discipline(because in my experience when u develope a good trading strategy/methodology, discipline comes naturally because you TRUST your method..indiscipline has its roots in distrust, remember this) it's not that much about randomness or whether it's zero sum, because...
Hi Diverge,

Sounds like you have gotten your hands on some W D Gann.

We all go through that phase.

I do agree on the importance of time. If does factor into my decision making by cutting trades if they fail to perform within a certain period of time. I will save you some time and tell you that Gann was a technical trader first. He did not take trades until price verified the time cycle he was looking at. With this in mind, what is really more important, the cart (time), or the horse (price)?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #144
  • Aug 29, 2018 5:00pm Aug 29, 2018 5:00pm
Quoting Diverge
Listen traders......please stop all this speculisting on whether price is random or not....It's really sad to see you all struggle so I'm gonna do a rare thing, and post here on ff...Listen up and listen well...the reason many of you are yet to be profitable is not so much about discipline(because in my experience when u develope a good trading strategy/methodology, discipline comes naturally because you TRUST your method..indiscipline has its roots in distrust, remember this) it's not that much about randomness or whether it's zero sum, because...
Phew! You made my day finally. All this year I have been saying "PRICE IS NOTHING - TIME IS EVERYTHING" hence I have named my strategy "Universal Time Action" Strategy. All this is based on my 2.5 yrs to tackle the markets in a quantified manner. I have said this repeatedly.... IGNORE PRICE. IT is the biggest joker tricking you from your life savings. It's all bookmarked and linked via shoutouts from my profile. There is a REASON why I am doing what I am doing... to spare your kids to follow the same footsteps of idiots@foolfactory. It pains me to see noobs join everyday to read the same old shit on the factory. It is TIME for a change in perspective !

Well Said Bro! Well Said!
Staying in my lane...
  • #145
  • Aug 29, 2018 5:03pm Aug 29, 2018 5:03pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Such patterns do exist but not in a technical sense. Going back to today as an example but I could pull up many days like it every week. There was a 100% guarantee that price was going to react positively for the pound. Computer algos already take advantage of this why do you think reaction to the news has all the hallmarks of being an algo. The instant the news is released price reacts and no human can react that fast. Market makers have an obligation to fill you. It's in their code of conduct at regulators so I really don't see how they...
Good points. To go into more detail the market maker will widen the spread to the point that you will not get filled if you have any sort of limits in place. They play that trick a lot. As far as 100% guarantee, then the next time you see it you should max out your leverage and empty your bank account. You will be on CNBC soon enough. I am not being a smart ass, I am just playing devils advocate here.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #146
  • Aug 29, 2018 5:04pm Aug 29, 2018 5:04pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Hi Diverge, Sounds like you have gotten your hands on some W D Gann. We all go through that phase. I do agree on the importance of time. If does factor into my decision making by cutting trades if they fail to perform within a certain period of time. I will save you some time and tell you that Gann was a technical trader first. He did not take trades until price verified the time cycle he was looking at. With this in mind, what is really more important, the cart (time), or the horse (price)?
It's a fair/prudent assumption but...nope I don't subscribe to gann analysis...I've created I my own type of analysis...what I've given above is just the gateway to how I look at the markets...
  • #147
  • Aug 29, 2018 5:04pm Aug 29, 2018 5:04pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Phew! You made my day finally. All this year I have been saying "PRICE IS NOTHING - TIME IS EVERYTHING" hence I have named my strategy "Universal Time Action" Strategy. All this is based on my 2.5 yrs to tackle the markets in a quantified manner. I have said this repeatedly.... IGNORE PRICE. IT is the biggest joker tricking you from your life savings. It's all bookmarked and linked via shoutouts from my profile. There is a REASON why I am doing what I am doing... to spare your kids to follow the same footsteps of idiots@foolfactory. It pains...
This post explains a lot of your recent behavior V, I wish you the best.

Quoting Diverge
{quote} It's a fair/prudent assumption but...nope I don't subscribe to gann analysis...I've created I my own type of analysis...what I've given above is just the gateway to how I look at the markets...
I see. Nothing new under the sun I reckon.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #148
  • Aug 29, 2018 5:12pm Aug 29, 2018 5:12pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Phew! You made my day finally. All this year I have been saying "PRICE IS NOTHING - TIME IS EVERYTHING" hence I have named my strategy "Universal Time Action" Strategy. All this is based on my 2.5 yrs to tackle the markets in a quantified manner. I have said this repeatedly.... IGNORE PRICE. IT is the biggest joker tricking you from your life savings. It's all bookmarked and linked via shoutouts from my profile. There is a REASON why I am doing what I am doing... to spare your kids to follow the same footsteps of idiots@foolfactory. It pains...
FF is kind of an echo chamber...I come here because it amuses me to read threads and see how traders think and watch the journey of new members (usually they end up the same as most...) retail traders have been lied to for years to keep them feeding the brokers, only the few who wake up survive...IN THE LAND OF THE BLIND THE ONE EYED MAN IS KING AND THE MAN WITH TWO EYES IS MADE THE VILLIAN..
  • #149
  • Aug 29, 2018 5:14pm Aug 29, 2018 5:14pm
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Well, that's what I call pseudo-random.
No not really. Pseudo means not genuine

Just like trends and correction don't last forever, random or the opposite definitive movement does not last forever.
  • #150
  • Aug 29, 2018 5:20pm Aug 29, 2018 5:20pm
Quoting Diverge
{quote} FF is kind of an echo chamber...I come here because it amuses me to read threads and see how traders think and watch the journey of new members (usually they end up the same as most...) retail traders have been lied to for years to keep them feeding the brokers, only the few who wake up survive...IN THE LAND OF THE BLIND THE ONE EYED MAN IS KING AND THE MAN WITH TWO EYES IS MADE THE VILLIAN..
I come in to see who the people who claim to have the secret sauce are. Looks like you and V are the ones with two eyes this week.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #151
  • Aug 29, 2018 5:23pm Aug 29, 2018 5:23pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I come in to see who the people who claim to have the secret sauce are. Looks like you and V are the ones with two eyes this week.
I have only shared what I have ruled out... via "process of elimination" based on my own data-driven research. Show me one post where I have said I am a successful trader or I have found the magic pill/sauce/formula. There is no such secret sauce. The only secret lies in the execution... as CP would say... G(F) or GET IT DONE WITH FOCUS
Staying in my lane...
  • #152
  • Aug 29, 2018 5:25pm Aug 29, 2018 5:25pm
Here is an example of price NOT being random. Elliott Wave 5th top right into fib cluster (380 range). Then drop right down into another fib cluster (200 range) bottom. Retracement back up to a 3rd fib cluster (300 range).

Oh you say fibs and EW work because they are widely known, used and self-reinforcing.

The chart is of the stock market crash of Dow in ..................... 1929!

BTW note Elliott came up with his theory for the Dow. Not for forex or commodities or options etc. And the rules are not rules but guidelines and not as exact or unbreakable as most think but that's another story.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dow1929.gif Size: 109 KB
  • #153
  • Aug 29, 2018 5:32pm Aug 29, 2018 5:32pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Phew! You made my day finally. All this year I have been saying "PRICE IS NOTHING - TIME IS EVERYTHING" hence I have named my strategy "Universal Time Action" Strategy. All this is based on my 2.5 yrs to tackle the markets in a quantified manner. I have said this repeatedly.... IGNORE PRICE. IT is the biggest joker tricking you from your life savings. It's all bookmarked and linked via shoutouts from my profile. There is a REASON why I am doing what I am doing... to spare your kids to follow the same footsteps of idiots@foolfactory. It pains...
there are many different paths every trader follows depending on their natural essence when it comes to trading in financial markets.
every path, 99.99 pct of the time leads to failure.
the most clear sign of failure when someone subconsciously accepts the failure at the end of the road but refuses to accept it, is anger, aggravation, erratic behavior. this happens just before the person gives up on everything.
the 0.001 pct finds zen under a solid philosophy. you will not even notice that they are even breathing.
BTW, CP is himself a joker (in a positive way). Many people are taking his explanations too much literally without understanding him.
As Above, So Below
  • #154
  • Aug 29, 2018 5:34pm Aug 29, 2018 5:34pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Good points. To go into more detail the market maker will widen the spread to the point that you will not get filled if you have any sort of limits in place. They play that trick a lot. As far as 100% guarantee, then the next time you see it you should max out your leverage and empty your bank account. You will be on CNBC soon enough. I am not being a smart ass, I am just playing devils advocate here.
Because while there is a 100 percent guarantee on the direction, there is no guarantee on an unscheduled news event that changes sentiment. Only an idiot would be that stupid to max everything out. This scenario happens and is one of many reasons that breaks trader accounts.

The market maker business is very competitive and all none bucket shop brokers have several liquidity providers competing for broker volume. The broker has a matching engine that maps bid and offers on the network and where necessary it dips into liquidity providers. The spreads are determined by the market and not a single entity like you suggest. Only bucket shops have that control and they won't be around for long because traders will always follow the best spreads and liquidity. There are so many brokers that I would probably spend all day listing their names so competition is high.
  • #155
  • Edited 6:53pm Aug 29, 2018 6:21pm | Edited 6:53pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} You and others continue to point towards successful industry professionals which is NOT applicable to any of my posts. I am binge-watching "BILLIONS" on Showtime. I highly recommend it... especially the performance enhancing professional shrink these hedge firms use! All my posts have "Retail Spot FX", "Retail Traders working from Home", "There is no evidence of fulltime Retail "work from home" trader"... I stand by every word what I have written (even my deleted posts!) until I see just one concrete verifiable independently audited evidence....
Just added a disclaimer below to this post:

I have also mentioned my "disclaimer" several times that all my research is based on OHLC (M1+ charts) and not tick charts because I am not a believer of ticks in retail spot fx. I have also not researched VSA/AMT/Market profile or any tick/volume based strategies in system threads section of the factory.
Staying in my lane...
  • #156
  • Aug 29, 2018 7:20pm Aug 29, 2018 7:20pm
I came back with a last post here to keep my promise of sticking in one more live call on EU after price crosses back up to 11707 lvl by buying @11685 sl @11660 with minimum tp at 11741. RR>2.

Happy trading all.
  • #157
  • Aug 29, 2018 7:46pm Aug 29, 2018 7:46pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Because while there is a 100 percent guarantee on the direction, there is no guarantee on an unscheduled news event that changes sentiment. Only an idiot would be that stupid to max everything out. This scenario happens and is one of many reasons that breaks trader accounts. The market maker business is very competitive and all none bucket shop brokers have several liquidity providers competing for broker volume. The broker has a matching engine that maps bid and offers on the network and where necessary it dips into liquidity providers....
Well then Eco, you just admitted that it is indeed not 100%. There is an element of randomness.

Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I have only shared what I have ruled out... via "process of elimination" based on my own data-driven research. Show me one post where I have said I am a successful trader or I have found the magic pill/sauce/formula. There is no such secret sauce. The only secret lies in the execution... as CP would say... G(F) or GET IT DONE WITH FOCUS
Okay V, I stand corrected on that one. It just appeared that have this special super secret method about TIME that you were going on about. If you are willing to say that you are not a successful trader I will accept that. But, I do not understand it because you have all the info you need. You spoke with PipEasy in real time. I am not clear on why you are not a successful trader.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #158
  • Aug 29, 2018 7:55pm Aug 29, 2018 7:55pm
Gann looked equally at price and time and if anything prioritized time.
  • #159
  • Edited Aug 30, 2018 12:40am Aug 29, 2018 9:12pm | Edited Aug 30, 2018 12:40am
this thread has become a bit chaos as no wise comment that makes it on track.
you guys fuss over some trivial thing about word. Dont do that.
Profit growth tells you the trader ability.
  • #160
  • Aug 29, 2018 10:23pm Aug 29, 2018 10:23pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} "but know much more stuff which doesn't work.".... you are on the right path. One must know what does not work in order to succeed. Hang in there. I am on the same path of conducting research-based process of elimination and not a day goes by when I read nonsense on these forums... utter nonsense. Garbage stays and never leaves because of all the older members/idiots singing the same tune keeping their readers hypnotized into thinking on their own. There's aren't many who have yet to come upfront to debate any of my bookmarked post in the...
I am usually not around for your in and out posts Tim. I only see the quotes from other members as u delete your posts after 24 hours. As a student, I would love to see your bookmarks.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
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