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Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

  • #101
  • Edited 1:34pm Aug 29, 2018 1:16pm | Edited 1:34pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} I have read many trading books and trading forums; and tested various strategies. Most if not all the profitable strategies I trade; came from forums; and not from books. The trading forums (including ForexFactory) are great source of trading ideas; and are worth a lot; much more than all books combined. Take CrucialPoint thread for example; you will never find that quality posts in any book; and you will not find it with any forex educator either.
There is no one right way only way. While there is some truth to what you say from my experience trading books are also a good source of knowledge. Who'd thunk it books.
  • #102
  • Aug 29, 2018 1:24pm Aug 29, 2018 1:24pm
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Thank you very much! Yes, I'm well. Seems like you're very well, too I'm very happy for your progresses.
I am doing quite well wearing my market researcher hat and picking my battles with the seniors out here....trying hard not to respond to some posts here and clutter your thread :-)

Here's a myth or mystery for us to solve !

Who are these 28 "traders" that do not have membership profile on the Factory?

How do they know when you or I post? The count magically increases within 30 seconds of any post. Does this happen to everyone or is there a 'social media' bot running to track posting activity? They are not the thread subscribers as they have to be registered members (I think)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Staying in my lane...
  • #103
  • Aug 29, 2018 1:54pm Aug 29, 2018 1:54pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I am doing quite well wearing my market researcher hat and picking my battles with the seniors out here....trying hard not to respond to some posts here and clutter your thread :-) Here's a myth or mystery for us to solve ! Who are these 28 "traders" that do not have membership profile on the Factory? How do they know when you or I post? The count magically increases within 30 seconds of any post. Does this happen to everyone or is there a 'social media' bot running to track posting activity? They are not the thread subscribers as they have...
Erm.. . You do know that threads with the latest replies will appear in bold... Im sure these 28 traders were simply scrolling through the forums and saw that this thread received a reply.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #104
  • Aug 29, 2018 2:04pm Aug 29, 2018 2:04pm
all to many focus on the perfect entry when in fact they should be focusing on what to do with the trade once in.
Its not about being right its about how much you make when you are right.

How about when entering a position that if your initial timing is wrong it wont take you out of your trade. So many
ridiculous conspiracy theories.. Who the fuck cares if your stop is hunted. How many times you enter a trade
only to get stopped out and see it then go in the direction of your analysis.

This is where scaling in and scaling in and scaling out of your positions is critical.. Trade managment and
increasing your RR . and thus spreading yur risk.

I have heard so many over the years blab about their winning percentage. For example in Fractal Freaks ridiculous thread
he states he can predict the markets move with a 95% accuracy.. Who the fuck cares if your risking 26 pips to make 9.
That math will 100% not work over time and is a losing proposition.

The true Holy grail in trading is Risk management. Any peckerhead can enter a trade.. but not anyone can manage that trade.

Just some quick thoughts of mine whilst cooling off from the Mexican sun,.
Anyhow Dont think i am stalking you VEE hahahaha.... Its pure coincidence

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #105
  • Aug 29, 2018 2:11pm Aug 29, 2018 2:11pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} I have read many trading books and trading forums; and tested various strategies. Most if not all the profitable strategies I trade; came from forums; and not from books. The trading forums (including ForexFactory) are great source of trading ideas; and are worth a lot; much more than all books combined. Take CrucialPoint thread for example; you will never find that quality posts in any book; and you will not find it with any forex educator either.
I started coding from Crucial point thread and his theories. A lot of ideas for testing came from his threads. Some of his theories are true: like for every action, there is a reaction, what comes up, must come down, etc. Also he said all you need for profitable trading is going with a trend and money management. He explained that trend is higher highs/lower lows. Maybe it work in his 6D world, but not in mine. There was some false theory with roulette and reference point too. So I haven't find any edge from his posts, but know much more stuff which doesn't work.
  • #106
  • Aug 29, 2018 2:11pm Aug 29, 2018 2:11pm
Quoting bluesteele
all to many focus on the perfect entry when in fact they should be focusing on what to do with the trade once in.
i agree with a lot of what you are saying bluesteele other than thinking about what you should do with the trade once your in, that to me should be answered before you place the trade itself, meaning know your exit for a profit and exit for a loss... good luck to you, may the pips be ever in your favor

Learning Forex One Pip at a Time

Fred
Learning Forex One PiP at a Time
  • #107
  • Aug 29, 2018 2:20pm Aug 29, 2018 2:20pm
Quoting IenDzi
{quote} I started coding from Crucial point thread and his theories. A lot of ideas for testing came from his threads. Some of his theories are true: like for every action, there is a reaction, what comes up, must come down, etc. Also he said all you need for profitable trading is going with a trend and money management. He explained that trend is higher highs/lower lows. Maybe it work in his 6D world, but not in mine. There was some false theory with roulette and reference point too. So I haven't find any edge from his posts, but know much more...
"but know much more stuff which doesn't work.".... you are on the right path. One must know what does not work in order to succeed. Hang in there. I am on the same path of conducting research-based process of elimination and not a day goes by when I read nonsense on these forums... utter nonsense. Garbage stays and never leaves because of all the older members/idiots singing the same tune keeping their readers hypnotized into thinking on their own. There's aren't many who have yet to come upfront to debate any of my bookmarked post in the threads I have written them. That's a fact and the only fact that matters to me and my journey :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #108
  • Aug 29, 2018 2:23pm Aug 29, 2018 2:23pm
Quoting IenDzi
{quote} I started coding from Crucial point thread and his theories. A lot of ideas for testing came from his threads. Some of his theories are true: like for every action, there is a reaction, what comes up, must come down, etc. Also he said all you need for profitable trading is going with a trend and money management. He explained that trend is higher highs/lower lows. Maybe it work in his 6D world, but not in mine. There was some false theory with roulette and reference point too. So I haven't find any edge from his posts, but know much more...
quite true; he didn't reveal much on his actual trading strategy; but there are many useful tidbits from his posts.

I certainly picked up few things from his ideas.

At the end of the day; even if he reveals the full details of his trading strategy; it won't help much others; as you need to understand it fully; and improve upon it over time. Profitable trading strategies need constant improvements.

In my opinion; his strategy is clear. He attempts to take part of the move that GBPUSD has day to day. He takes a directional view; and goes with it.
The rest is money management and exit techniques.

The most that I have learned from his posts myself; is the utmost importance of discipline! that was my weakest point. Most of my bad days were attributed to weak discipline.

Discipline here means "Following the trading system rules to the fine detail; no matter what the circumstance are"
  • #109
  • Edited 2:36pm Aug 29, 2018 2:24pm | Edited 2:36pm
Quoting 4xFred
{quote} i agree with a lot of what you are saying bluesteele other than thinking about what you should do with the trade once your in, that to me should be answered before you place the trade itself, meaning know your exit for a profit and exit for a loss... good luck to you, may the pips be ever in your favor Learning Forex One Pip at a Time Fred
And yet there is ZERO evidence that Mr. BlueSteele even trades or his performance track record or any proof that "trading is simple". I have repeatedly asked him to show his most recent trade... just ONE trade, this week, last week, last month...nada. Not even a demo trade screenshot lol

EDIT-He's got only two screenshot of charts from 2009. Go Figure.
Staying in my lane...
  • #110
  • Aug 29, 2018 2:39pm Aug 29, 2018 2:39pm
Quoting Bushy
{quote} Chart snapshot... random? {image}
Yes, that chart is very much random, so will any other chart you post. A chart only shows who is in control after the end of certain period of time. That control can and will change with time.

Quoting VEEFX
{quote} And yet there is ZERO evidence that Mr. BlueSteele even trades or his performance track record or any proof that "trading is simple". I have repeatedly asked him to show his most recent trade... just ONE trade, this week, last week, last month...nada. Not even a demo trade screenshot lol EDIT-He's got only two screenshot of charts from 2009. Go Figure.
This fellow is turning into Mingary.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #111
  • Aug 29, 2018 2:45pm Aug 29, 2018 2:45pm
The original poster is assuming the market is random and is assuming the market has 50% chance to reach 1:1. Lol...if the market isn't random however, the chance for price to reach 1:1 can be 0%. Therefore, your whole theory doesn't stand unless you have 100% proof that the market is random in which case i'm all ears!
  • #112
  • Aug 29, 2018 2:56pm Aug 29, 2018 2:56pm
Quoting Stillearnin
The original poster is assuming the market is random and is assuming the market has 50% chance to reach 1:1. Lol...if the market isn't random however, the chance for price to reach 1:1 can be 0%. Therefore, your whole theory doesn't stand unless you have 100% proof that the market is random in which case i'm all ears!
The market is random because we are trading fiat currencies. They are backed by nothing other than the confidence of the users of that currency. As such, the value can change at any time, for any reason. Forex is not like oil or gold or even IBM.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #113
  • Aug 29, 2018 2:58pm Aug 29, 2018 2:58pm
Quoting Stillearnin
The original poster is assuming the market is random and is assuming the market has 50% chance to reach 1:1. Lol...if the market isn't random however, the chance for price to reach 1:1 can be 0%. Therefore, your whole theory doesn't stand unless you have 100% proof that the market is random in which case i'm all ears!
I never said that I believe that the market is random. I said it is pseudo-random. Please read the thread and the post again. It was just an assumption (never said that this is the truth)!

Here is what I wrote:

"Although this may be not the full truth, let's consider that the market is random"
  • #114
  • Aug 29, 2018 3:04pm Aug 29, 2018 3:04pm
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} I never said that I believe that the market is random. I said it is pseudo-random. Please read the thread and the post again. It was just an assumption (never said that this is the truth)! Here is what I wrote: "Although this may be not the full truth, let's consider that the market is random"
Ok, again, if the market isn't random however your whole theory doesn't stand. Is that clear or not? So don't call it 'trading myth' if you don't have a leg to stand on.

'Debunking' myths doesn't contain 'assume' in it. When you are debunking a myth you are stating facts backed up by math. I don't see it here.
  • #115
  • Aug 29, 2018 3:14pm Aug 29, 2018 3:14pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} The market is random because we are trading fiat currencies. They are backed by nothing other than the confidence of the users of that currency. As such, the value can change at any time, for any reason. Forex is not like oil or gold or even IBM.
Awesome. Prove it please! You are making a statement that the market is random...prove it now. Is it a statement or is it your perception? Hmm...tough!
  • #116
  • Aug 29, 2018 3:16pm Aug 29, 2018 3:16pm
Quoting Stillearnin
{quote} Ok, again, if the market isn't random however your whole theory doesn't stand. Is that clear or not? So don't call it 'trading myth' if you don't have a leg to stand on. 'Debunking' myths doesn't contain 'assume' in it. When you are debunking a myth you are stating facts backed up by math. I don't see it here.
Yes, but I assumed that everybody understands that RR will work if you can predict the market more often correct than not. But if you can, you even don't need RR, do you? And the whole thing was about the myths that the gurus spread. Just watch 10 arbitrarily chosen trading videos produced by these gurus. I'll bet that at least 8 will tell you that you have to use a high reward to risk ratio in order to make money. Nothing else. That was the point here.
  • #117
  • Aug 29, 2018 3:17pm Aug 29, 2018 3:17pm
Quoting Stillearnin
{quote} Awesome. Prove it please! You are making a statement that the market is random...prove it now. Is it a statement or is it your perception? Hmm...tough!
Dito. There were a lot of people claiming that the market is not random but not 1 single proof ...
  • #118
  • Aug 29, 2018 3:18pm Aug 29, 2018 3:18pm
Market depends on news and money makers,so I would say market is random,it can change any time,any direction,unpredictable.automated trading is stressfree and I recently prefer that.
  • #119
  • Aug 29, 2018 3:21pm Aug 29, 2018 3:21pm
Quoting Stillearnin
{quote} Awesome. Prove it please! You are making a statement that the market is random...prove it now. Is it a statement or is it your perception? Hmm...tough!
If you read well, there are many studies, done by many people, over many years. The odds of every trade are the same, 50:50. If it were not this way, and it could be statistically proven as such, no one would take the other side of your trade. Who would take the other side of a trade that was statistically proven to win? This would seem to be common sense, but maybe it is not.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #120
  • Aug 29, 2018 3:27pm Aug 29, 2018 3:27pm
There is a natural element of randomness with all transactions spanning countries requiring exchange. That's were the randomness ends however. The directional bias on a daily basis is driven by sentiment that's is affected by economical and political news. Longer term directional bias is driven by an economy's fundamental strength and specifically the future direction of central bank policy.

Technical based trading strategies are highly random because they attempt to predict future price based on historical price. This is the biggest trap that causes 80% of the retail market to fail. This is why people seem to look at it as random because they can't work out why setup ABC works here but not there or stops working for a long period.

There are very few people that can make technical trading work over the long haul. Their margins are tight and they are subject to conditions changing and their strategy losing for either a short period or sometimes longer. If your analysis doesn't incorporate price drivers, then what hope do you think you have in maintaining any edge over the long haul. If you incorporateed fundamentals then you at least have input into how effective your strategy might be over a given session.

If you want to see the market without this perceived randomness then either incorporate fundamentals into your trading or better yet, drop technicals altogether. It will remove all the randomness and clear things up in a way you never thought possible.
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