EURUSD

Here's my take on the EURUSD, from a technical perspective.

On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline (black). The most significant horizontal resistance is around the 1.18410 area. But for bulls to get to that area, they will have to clear the resistance around the 1.17400 area. Nevertheless, technically, bulls are favoured to be influential in the market in the early part of this week.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Good morning everyone, my opinion for EURUSD for this week.

My Intraday Outlook.
(ahead London)

New highs on Asian sess. and apparently new bullish channel.
Maybe little correction to be bought for a scalp now...

Intraday resistance :
- 1.1630 - 50 - 80
Intraday support :
- 1.1600, TL, 1.1580 - 90

Initial intraday scalping plan: I'll buy 1.1600 +TL, 1580 - 90 and sell 1.1650 - 1.1685

Have a great trading day, you all!

not sure if I will be trading this today,,,I am looking at Euraud....

The economic symposium of the Kansas Fed in Jackson Hole did not provide any new about the Fed policy. The Fed – this was the main information provided by Chair Jerome Powell – sticks to its gradual interest rate policy. Some swashbuckling participants of the FX market must have expected Powell would turn on the autopilot and announce a rate hiking cycle as we would have seen it in 2004/06 or before that: foreseeable rate hikes in nice regularity. These hopes were dashed, swashbuckling behavior punished and as a result EURUSD is once again trading above 1.1600.

Well, in fact it is quite obvious that a change from manual control to autopilot currently is impossible. The whole symposium centered around that question. Economists have less understanding than ever of how inflation works and how monetary policy does influence inflation. As a result it cannot be predicted what rate hike speed and what maximum interest rate levels will be appropriate. The central banks have no other choice in this environment but to assume a discretionary approach and to move into the desired direction in a cautious manner. That is what the Fed and the ECB are doing. The BoJ had recently maneuvered itself into a monetary policy dead-end (at least from its own point of view) and is therefore executing an u-turn at present. That may happen in this new, discretionary world of monetary policy. The central banks would prefer to take a different approach: rule-based instead of discretionary. That would be far more effective. But monetary policy rules depend on the knowledge of how monetary policy effects the economy. The lack of this knowledge prevents rule-based policy styles. If I don’t know how the flight attitude of my jet is changed if I move the controls then I can’t build an autopilot. And as a result residual uncertainty remains for the FX market which means that:

- nothing happens for a long time as no important monetary policy events take place (as was the case in 2015/16), or
- a sudden slide happens because monetary policy prospects have to be revised meaningfully (as was the case in the 2nd half of 2014).

Jackson Hole certainly was no reason for such a meaningful revision. The market’s Fed expectations remained unchanged, the small blip on the FX Market is likely to have been the most import result.

1. Powell dovish...
2. bear correction done
3. EUR/USD paralyzed at 1609 resistance (M5)
4. Morning Star on H1
...bull spike coming?

I am sticking with the bears today, i think we might see a more meaningful correction (maybe towards 1.1500?) and then resume up. Too many people are buying this...i dunno! And market reaction to Powell was bullish only in the first 5 mins, then turned bearish. Although you are right, candles look bad for sell right now. Did you buy at 1.1600?

thinking long....

Hi
Sold 1611 for some 50pps...
Bought 1600 => 1620

now short....going home...

I don't like that 1617 resistance. Closed Enough for a lucky Monday scalp!

This SP500 new historical highs might be important for the EUR/USD :

EURUSD H1
Intraday Now a little bit higher 1.1630/40
H4 1.1678 (edit 11:29)

still here.....monitoring....

EU H4 - no power for topping

15m

Nice M15!
I guess I'm having a stubborn wicked obsession for Mr. Fibonacci despite Mr. Powell's dovishness

very slow.....maybe NA opening...

Ok, maybe ...maybe not ...maybe Powell and the stock market are harder

SL short. 1625 long now ..let's see

Yep, so far they keep dangling the carrot in front of the sellers. And they will prolly keep at it.