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The only thread you will ever need: FX Exposed!

  • #5,781
  • Aug 16, 2018 7:36am Aug 16, 2018 7:36am
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www.sme-fx.com
  • #5,782
  • Aug 16, 2018 7:37am Aug 16, 2018 7:37am
Quoting FractalFreak
"So go against the prevailing trend I.e..countertrend trading with the expectation of a bounce" That sounds too generic, and the scenarios can be different from trend / counter trend etc. What I tried to say was; for example if the DM flow is low, the stop bias is low, the market is OR etc. then do not just trade long if there are slightly more shorties than longies... it is not that simple.... despite there ARE simple setups (see AU, NU etc.)... ff
Agree. There is no such thing as "Trading is Simple". What I am referring to is countertrend the pullback as if it is a Confirmed Reversal. By this I mean if the long/mid term is Long (turning causility bias weighted towards longies), we wait for short term trend to go short (casualitycbias turn towards shorties) and while that is happening go countertrend towards longies. I.e. countertrend the micro trends within the macro trends

Edit: I am only thinking like an algo or a market maker by doing what markets have to do to survive (i.e. make price)
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,783
  • Aug 16, 2018 7:50am Aug 16, 2018 7:50am
;-)
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  • #5,784
  • Aug 16, 2018 7:50am Aug 16, 2018 7:50am
"Agree. There is no such thing as "Trading is Simple". "


In general, no.

That being said, there are some simple setups.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #5,785
  • Aug 16, 2018 7:53am Aug 16, 2018 7:53am
"e wait for short term trend to go short (casualitycbias turn towards shorties)"



The scenarios as such are quite repetitive, as you can realize yourself after having looked at enough material here.

For example;

massive Dm longies come in; Sm starts a downtrend, in between it kills the shorties with exaggerated pullbacks....that provokes even more Dm longies trying to "buy cheap" or to trade a "reversal"; which leads again to a trend resumption. Then, once the first 3 stop nests are cleaned, we get OR and there are more IR grips like today in GU.

Yes,
there are other scenarios.
For example, remember ca. 8 months ago when EU was in a range on the daily......then the DM tries to trade "breakouts" up and down, which result in headfakes and the SM pushing / pulling the market back IR.

And then inner range there is the "usual" STS hunts etc.

Stay safe,
FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #5,786
  • Aug 16, 2018 7:54am Aug 16, 2018 7:54am
If this stuff here does not blow your mind,
then you do not understand what FX is about.


But, most got it by now.


THANK YOU!
www.sme-fx.com
  • #5,787
  • Aug 16, 2018 8:17am Aug 16, 2018 8:17am
EU M15:
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  • #5,788
  • Aug 16, 2018 8:19am Aug 16, 2018 8:19am
Quoting FractalFreak
If this stuff here does not blow your mind, then you do not understand what FX is about. But, most got it by now. THANK YOU!
F*** yeh it does blow my mind, but hell i love this exposure to your information. Your charts and comments just make so much sense. I am using all this in parallel to MY strategy simply speaking i love it. It makes all the difference. Today e.g. i had several choices pairs, but only trade 1 trade at a time. opted for the GU. monitored the movements IR.sniped a few pips IR and then hopped onto the upward ride. nice.
  • #5,789
  • Aug 16, 2018 10:23am Aug 16, 2018 10:23am
Quoting FractalFreak
If this stuff here does not blow your mind, then you do not understand what FX is about. But, most got it by now. THANK YOU!
Agree... During my manual trading years, I always viewed the market as a network of trains with no stations.... just (price) moving with no defined destination. All I could do is wait for the train to slow down enough to hop on with the hopes that speed will resume.... i.e. trading compelling momentum during events. I could not find a single strategy worth my while to justify staring at charts. I knew folks who would literally stare at charts all day and then take a precise entry but at the end of the day, how much $$ you make PER HOUR from trading is what mattered to me as in Time and Effort it takes and NOT risk/Reward. Perhaps i am just wired differently being a IT consultant for 2 decades and charging clients by the hour for my time and effort. To me, this is the only true measure of whether a trader should quit their primary job and go full time... and everyone I know are still stuck in their primary jobs :-)

Quoting pamc
{quote} F*** yeh it does blow my mind, but hell i love this exposure to your information. Your charts and comments just make so much sense. I am using all this in parallel to MY strategy simply speaking i love it. It makes all the difference. Today e.g. i had several choices pairs, but only trade 1 trade at a time. opted for the GU. monitored the movements IR.sniped a few pips IR and then hopped onto the upward ride. nice.
This is the (only?)best approach one can take from this thread.... enhance your own trading style from knowledge gained. I am a systemic trader with 100% automatic entries and 80% discretionary exists manually triggered by my automation to achieve consistency in my actions.

That is all I have been doing from day one of this thread...keeping in mind we don't have access to data that FF has.
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,790
  • Aug 16, 2018 11:04am Aug 16, 2018 11:04am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} OUR from trading is what mattered to me as in Time and Effort it takes and NOT risk/Reward. Perhaps i am just wired differently being a IT consultant for 2 decades and charging clients by the hour for my time and effort. To me, this is the only true measure of whether a trader should quit their primary job and go full time...one of this thread...keeping in mind we don't have access to data that FF has.
good point actually. I have added duration to my trades journal (from session start to end of session) and seeing my profit conversion rate over time. it's all about $$$ ..nothing else

you speak my language man
  • #5,791
  • Aug 16, 2018 11:52am Aug 16, 2018 11:52am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} good point actually. I have added duration to my trades journal (from session start to end of session) and seeing my profit conversion rate over time. it's all about $$$ ..nothing else you speak my language man
I am glad. Regardless of our past differences, I actually admire your transparent journey from spot fx / Oanda to Futures/AMP. Not many have the balls to do what you have done. My admiration resulted in sharing bits and pieces of my entire research journey as well. So kudos for that.

Let's see if we can align a bit further on "traditional" way of looking at trading stats/metrics. My research tells me that ANY specific stat or measure can be manipulated to make trading performance look better. In fact, I think focusing too much on stats is detrimental to our overall performance. I have simplified to the point that these are the only things that matter to me:

  1. Average Win/Loss in absolute pips over a minimum of 1000+ trade sampling
  2. Entry and Exit %Accuracy. Only myFXBook does this calculation which is the only reason why I hook my account once a month
  3. Average Trade Duration (over a min. of 1000+ trades
  4. Trade Frequency

Win/Loss, Risk/Reward, etc are all bogus (to me). What matters most is the overall exposure during the duration of trade. I am also of the opinion that a scalp trade offers the BEST risk/rewards regardless of the trade outcome. A few quick pips has a better risk quotient than a trade that takes 20 pips throughout the session. Getting trade in pnl as fast as possible offers better risk quotient than a trade with a wide stoploss resulting eventually in 100s of pips in profit. I am a believer of "Time is Everything when dependence on Price (action) is minimized" :-)

Staying in my lane...
  • #5,792
  • Aug 16, 2018 12:13pm Aug 16, 2018 12:13pm
Quoting FractalFreak
I should stress one important point regarding then causality bias: What we do NOT do is to see in which direction the bias SLIGHLTY points. That is not enough by any means. In fact, if for example there are just a bit more shorties than longies and just a bit closer stops of these, the price often goes in the opposite way! Rather, we look for situation where the DM bias is STRONG, and then we consider to trade. SKIP the rest. DM tolerance principle. FF
I am also a believer of DM tolerance (but for a different, more fundamentally-driven reasons). How would you "QUANTIFY" DM Tolerance? How would you know looking at a naked chart that a move is now overblown and about to reverse? Almost in all my chart readings, space/vaccum/void/gap or whatever you want to name it, will always get filled. It is the nature of market (via manipulation in your view, via liquidity seek in my view). Filling the void is good but timing matters when and how you enter. Either to do countertrend (pullback) and walk all the way to filling the void or you just wait until the void is filled and then enter with the hopes that trend continuation will occur.

I think you have proven your ability to pick direction and targets with a decent rate of accuracy but feel that won't be enough for many without some focus on entries, stop loss, RM/MM etc I will leave it for others to step in if your readers think I am justified.
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,793
  • Aug 16, 2018 12:17pm Aug 16, 2018 12:17pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I am glad. Regardless of our past differences, I actually admire your transparent journey from spot fx / Oanda to Futures/AMP. Not many have the balls to do what you have done. My admiration resulted in sharing bits and pieces of my entire research journey as well. So kudos for that. Let's see if we can align a bit further on "traditional" way of looking at trading stats/metrics. My research tells me that ANY specific stat or measure can be manipulated to make trading performance look better. In fact, I think focusing too much on stats is...
opportunity cost. most "no stop loss" or grid traders here just don't understand this point. They put up TE with straight line equity..but don't realize how much time they expand to get eventual profits. it's the old "earning wage" mentality over maximizing opportunities for profit.

one reason why i started to become a b/e trader when i started to flip positions when shit hits the fan...
  • #5,794
  • Aug 16, 2018 4:21pm Aug 16, 2018 4:21pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} opportunity cost. most "no stop loss" or grid traders here just don't understand this point. They put up TE with straight line equity..but don't realize how much time they expand to get eventual profits. it's the old "earning wage" mentality over maximizing opportunities for profit. one reason why i started to become a b/e trader when i started to flip positions when shit hits the fan...
yep. Trade Frequency is far more powerful than account leverage (if you know what you are doing)
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,795
  • Aug 16, 2018 6:44pm Aug 16, 2018 6:44pm
This stuff is mind blowing! Can’t wait to get to the meta levels and see how all the parts come together. It’s just ridiculous how things are engineered to make everyone loose. I’ve seen this with my own eyes. And most often been a victim of this. Count me in on the journey FF. And thank you for putting your neck on the line for the education of those who are willing to see the truth.
  • #5,796
  • Aug 17, 2018 1:04am Aug 17, 2018 1:04am
GU M15:
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  • #5,797
  • Aug 17, 2018 1:05am Aug 17, 2018 1:05am
"F*** yeh it does blow my mind, but hell i love this exposure to your information. Your charts and comments just make so much sense. I am using all this in parallel to MY strategy simply speaking i love it. It makes all the difference. Today e.g. i had several choices pairs, but only trade 1 trade at a time. opted for the GU. monitored the movements IR.sniped a few pips IR and then hopped onto the upward ride. nice."

You are welcome dear.

Stay safe.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #5,798
  • Aug 17, 2018 1:07am Aug 17, 2018 1:07am
"This stuff is mind blowing! Can’t wait to get to the meta levels and see how all the parts come together. It’s just ridiculous how things are engineered to make everyone loose. I’ve seen this with my own eyes. And most often been a victim of this. Count me in on the journey FF. And thank you for putting your neck on the line for the education of those who are willing to see the truth"

Welcome.

Stay safe and LOVE to all.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #5,799
  • Aug 17, 2018 1:14am Aug 17, 2018 1:14am
Quoting FractalFreak
"This stuff is mind blowing! Can’t wait to get to the meta levels and see how all the parts come together. It’s just ridiculous how things are engineered to make everyone loose. I’ve seen this with my own eyes. And most often been a victim of this. Count me in on the journey FF. And thank you for putting your neck on the line for the education of those who are willing to see the truth" Welcome. Stay safe and LOVE to all. FF
why dont you tell the guy that you have no intention to get to the meta levels?
poor soul joined late, and so mind blown that he suffered selective reading disease;
else he wouldnt miss that few occasions you said no meta levels will be discussed.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #5,800
  • Aug 17, 2018 1:26am Aug 17, 2018 1:26am
Wow, these babies just popped!
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