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The only thread you will ever need: FX Exposed!

  • #5,521
  • Aug 10, 2018 10:04am Aug 10, 2018 10:04am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} so london session worked on NJ... 30+ pips going up. hehe, even I can predict lol
Indeed,
Now do u see what I am obsessed with finding a way to predict the targets that will be touch in my system? which makes me to lurk in this thread ... but so far no cigar...
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  • #5,522
  • Aug 10, 2018 11:36am Aug 10, 2018 11:36am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I think I need to write a bookmarked post on targets. For us retail traders with such limited information, determining targets for either SL or TP is just a hard endeavor. One can guess but unlike FF with hard facts and supporting data, it is impossible imo. But leaving all that aside, I just cannot understand this from a common sense standpoint. We analyze price over and under, top to bottom, left to right and right to left and then make a best form judgement of direction, take the entry based on a predetermined risk or SL space and hit...
hi veefx
price is variable and it does not help us alone
and also time is variable & volume is variable & speed is variable

So what is the important parameter? Please give me guidance
Should the price be combined with another parameter?
be healthy and wealthy... Ceeport
  • #5,523
  • Edited 1:24pm Aug 10, 2018 12:55pm | Edited 1:24pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Who says Time is variable. Can a day have more than 24 hours? Can a hour have more than 60 mins... can the SMs or broker spike Time? Can a trading session open at any time of the day of their choosing? Time is not FIXED but it is a CONSTANT.... as in predictable as in Time cannot be manipulated if you know what you are doing.... There is only one official opening and closing candle in FX and that is the weekly candle. Can it be...
Thank you very much bro,
so time is one of the essential elements of strategy

What other elements are important in strategy?
be healthy and wealthy... Ceeport
  • #5,524
  • Aug 10, 2018 2:17pm Aug 10, 2018 2:17pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Who says Time is variable....
Interesting topic you bring here VEEFX, I have thought myself about 'time' in the past, hence my question at the end.

But first your statements:
Can a day have more than 24 hours? Can a hour have more than 60 mins... >NO
Can the SMs or broker spike Time? >NO
Can a trading session open at any time of the day of their choosing? >Yes, depends what you mean by trading session
Time is not FIXED but it is a CONSTANT.... as in predictable as in Time cannot be manipulated >Correct
if you know what you are doing....
There is only one official opening and closing candle in FX and that is the weekly candle. >Correct
Can it be manipulated? >Yes
Please think outside the box. >Trying to do for many years now
In MT4, time is also manipulated around the globe making it IMPOSSIBLE to succeed for manual traders or for backtesting results to have any merit. >Don't have MT4 and don't know what you mean.

So my question.

Do you want to say that if one takes f.e. a 60min time frame, but let it start at the 50th min. of an hour, till min. 49 of the next hour (So shifted) We get (of course) a different graph. But is that something what shows us new helpful insights?
I thought about this, never programmed it that way, so maybe you have experience in this?

And another question pops up when I read your posts. Do you want to hint on that there's a specific amount of pips during a fixed timeframe?
I state that wrong because thats just een ATR
Thinking of enter the trades based on time instead of candle(price). I just don't have wrapped my brain enough around it. Hard to explain where I want to go. Do you have another hint. Pls??

Thanks
  • #5,525
  • Aug 10, 2018 3:17pm Aug 10, 2018 3:17pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I don't know how else to explain.... but I am sure folks are getting the impression of me wearing a watch and trading based on "time of day". I do not base my entries on time as time has no relevance on what price does. Explaining more will only clutter this thread (which I have already been accused of... by many OPs) All I am saying is Price is never "stable" on a single chart and timeframe (even if the chart looks picture perfect trending or rangebound, it is never stable. it's causing an illusion. Why? because there is no "fixed" point...
No dude... SM are the tricksters with their algos targeting DM stops. Price is irrelevant to them. You really got to read this thread from Page 1 and watch the videos.
  • #5,526
  • Aug 10, 2018 3:22pm Aug 10, 2018 3:22pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I don't know how else to explain.... but I am sure folks are getting the impression of me wearing a watch and trading based on "time of day". I do not base my entries on time as time has no relevance on what price does. Explaining more will only clutter this thread (which I have already been accused of... by many OPs) All I am saying is Price is never "stable" on a single chart and timeframe (even if the chart looks picture perfect trending or rangebound, it is never stable. it's causing an illusion. Why? because there is no "fixed" point...
Hmmm, you get my brains overheating but...
You mean. F.e. Take a price (fix it), and just wait till it brings you 20 pips in 15 mins. With a SL of 10 pips.
After 15 mins, close the trade anyway, regardless of the outcome.
When SL is hit close the trade also?

Something like that? Just thinking out loud....

For sure the more I think about your input, I think that all we see is manipulation, also the graphs 'they' show us.
My gut always told me there must be something else, but did not find it (yet)

If the above will clutter this thread too much, maybe you want to discuss a little further by PM here?
  • #5,527
  • Aug 10, 2018 3:45pm Aug 10, 2018 3:45pm
Quoting ForeignTrade
{quote} Hmmm, you get my brains overheating but... You mean. F.e. Take a price (fix it), and just wait till it brings you 20 pips in 15 mins. With a SL of 10 pips. After 15 mins, close the trade anyway, regardless of the outcome. When SL is hit close the trade also? Something like that? Just thinking out loud.... For sure the more I think about your input, I think that all we see is manipulation, also the graphs 'they' show us. My gut always told me there must be something else, but did not find it (yet) If the above will clutter this thread too...
Hi ForeignTrade.

Please, please, please read Page 1 of this thread. FractalFreak is the Owner of this thread.

You will be very grateful for this advice I pomise. FractalFreak (FF) has gone into great lengths explainig a fantastic method to understand how Markets are moved and manipulated.
I am not a very experienced Trader but I found this concept quite easy to understand. It has made a huge difference to my decision making.

Have a great weekend and study hard.
  • #5,528
  • Aug 10, 2018 3:50pm Aug 10, 2018 3:50pm
Quoting davidman
{quote} Hi ForeignTrade. Please, please, please read Page 1 of this thread. FractalFreak is the Owner of this thread. You will be very grateful for this advice I pomise. FractalFreak (FF) has gone into great lengths explainig a fantastic method to understand how Markets are moved and manipulated. I am not a very experienced Trader but I found this concept quite easy to understand. It has made a huge difference to my decision making. Have a great weekend and study hard.
Thanks Davidman.
And I can tell you, I have read ALL the pages.
So I know what FF is doing and he's very right in it.

But since we lack the system ourself, we can only rely on the graphs here.
So we know it's manipulated all the way, but we have no insight in it when we don't have the system.
What's left then... Maybe an alternative.
I find it interesting in general to discuss systems with other people (my job as programmer must have sth to do with that)

But can imagine it clutters the thread. I will stop here and take it to PM with VEEFX if he likes.

Have a nice weekend
  • #5,529
  • Aug 10, 2018 4:31pm Aug 10, 2018 4:31pm
Quoting ForeignTrade
{quote} Thanks Davidman. And I can tell you, I have read ALL the pages. So I know what FF is doing and he's very right in it. But since we lack the system ourself, we can only rely on the graphs here. So we know it's manipulated all the way, but we have no insight in it when we don't have the system. What's left then... Maybe an alternative. I find it interesting in general to discuss systems with other people (my job as programmer must have sth to do with that) But can imagine it clutters the thread. I will stop here and take it to PM with VEEFX...
Apologies for the misunderstanding.

You make a very interesting point and one which I am also trying to figure out... how can we become independent of FF charts?
Since we are now aware that the SM target DM SL areas this should be the main scope of our research.

The obvious SL areas are... S/R levels, tops, bottoms, etc. which are relatively straight forward to see. Then there are the not so obvious areas. Example: Just recently NZ plummeted on a dovish rate decision targeting an area that was last visited in Feb 2016. Why? Had the SM algos run out of liquidity and so needed to create more volatility? Was this SL area just a decoy to attract sellers to create new SL areas? There are many more examples of this kind of phenomena posted by FF as you are aware. There must be lots of other techniques that I hope to discover.

So, what I am now doing is saving FF's charts to study the reasons for price movements and target areas to, hopefully, gain a clearer insight as to how SM do things. So far these charts have been invaluable. It would also be great to get other opinions.

Anyway, I would like to hear yours and anyone elses thoughts on this subject. I am sure this subject is relevant to this thread. VEEFX operates in a different galaxy LOL

Regards
  • #5,530
  • Aug 10, 2018 4:38pm Aug 10, 2018 4:38pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I am trying hard to avoid responding to you to prevent another temper-tantrum response. Price Action is irrelevant to them but they are manipulating price movement so we are talking the same thing here and I HAVE read most of FF's posts and his videos that are relevant to me and my understanding. What makes you think I have not? Agree, I have ignored his empty charts with no commentary as they are not helpful to me (because I have ruled out charts from my focus plus they frustrate me with lack of reference to core information... but then...
Ah excellent! Now we seem to be getting somewhere. No temper-tantrum dude! I just don't appreciate your condescending attitude. Should I just shut-up and take your BS? ... like the call you made on NJ? Be nice. Not too much to ask eh?
  • #5,531
  • Aug 10, 2018 4:43pm Aug 10, 2018 4:43pm
you guys don't need to have FF's charts to trade his method. Just use one of the big broker internal order book and you basically have the general crowd behavior summarized. From broker to broker, DM behaviors are not changing. IF FF truly has the cumulative order book, and you take a subsection of that from a reputable retail broker, it would look similar.

FF would tell me "no bro..it's not the same". I'd say , stfu bro, it is. stop misleading these folks..
  • #5,532
  • Aug 10, 2018 4:51pm Aug 10, 2018 4:51pm
Quoting hilmy83
you guys don't need to have FF's charts to trade his method. Just use one of the big broker internal order book and you basically have the general crowd behavior summarized. From broker to broker, DM behaviors are not changing. IF FF truly has the cumulative order book, and you take a subsection of that from a reputable retail broker, it would look similar. FF would tell me "no bro..it's not the same". I'd say , stfu bro, it is. stop misleading these folks..
Good point. Have you used a Brokers order book? Does it show Stop Loss areas?
I'm not being funny. This is definitely useful information

Many thanks.
  • #5,533
  • Aug 10, 2018 4:59pm Aug 10, 2018 4:59pm
Quoting davidman
{quote} Good point. Have you used a Brokers order book? Does it show Stop Loss areas? I'm not being funny. This is definitely useful information Many thanks.
i started doing order book trading when i came across darkstar's post on order flow and later on he made a book from it (expensive as well back then..but still useful)

Look in this thread, i was banging the $$$
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...46#post4892746

Problem was back then i was still very new at it so i was just gunning for stops left and right and sometimes weren't picking the best levels

but after a while i realize that retail forex is not hte best market for this type of trading because the volume info is always localized to your broker. i switched over to futures so that i can get access to P/S, volume data and this method is really suitable for futures/equity markets where you know what goes on behind the scene
  • #5,534
  • Aug 10, 2018 5:09pm Aug 10, 2018 5:09pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} i started doing order book trading when i came across darkstar's post on order flow and later on he made a book from it (expensive as well back then..but still useful) Look in this thread, i was banging the $$$ https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...46#post4892746 Problem was back then i was still very new at it so i was just gunning for stops left and right and sometimes weren't picking the best levels but after a while i realize that retail forex is not hte best market for this type of trading because the volume...
Jeez... can I be your bitch bro?

Jokes aside (and that was a joke) someone told me about futures, equities a while ago and I dismissed it as being too complicated. Still do as I still know nothing about it.

OK... more frickin homework this weekend.

Thanks again.
  • #5,535
  • Aug 10, 2018 5:26pm Aug 10, 2018 5:26pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Let me guess... are you based in USA? Americans generally get pissed off with my writing style.
Got f...all to do with writing style. If you pay attention you would see I said "attitude" ... and that is universal pal, even on another galaxy.

VEEFX lets put an end to this childish banter. Just be more aware of how you express yourself from another person's point of view.

I am not a moron. I have a brain, emotions etc. I am not a child. I do not need you to tell me what I should post on this thread.

Just have some respect for FF and everyone else here.

Please Dude!!
  • #5,536
  • Aug 10, 2018 5:57pm Aug 10, 2018 5:57pm
Quoting FractalFreak
UC H4: {image}
Here again we have a trade that defies expectations. Long DM money enters the market and the price goes UP.

I am not criticizing, I simply want to understand what is considered successful, and what is the rate of success. I would not expect perfection. In fact I would be suspicious of it.

Should we simply accept situations like these as part of the 'flow principle' and ignore them or is there something about this chart (and EJ) that makes it different from the other (clearly) successful trades?
  • #5,537
  • Edited 9:44pm Aug 10, 2018 7:27pm | Edited 9:44pm
Quoting davidman
{quote} Got f...all to do with writing style. If you pay attention you would see I said "attitude" ... and that is universal pal, even on another galaxy. VEEFX lets put an end to this childish banter. Just be more aware of how you express yourself from another person's point of view. I am not a moron. I have a brain, emotions etc. I am not a child. I do not need you to tell me what I should post on this thread. Just have some respect for FF and everyone else here. Please Dude!!
Agree... let's delete our posts. not worth our time.
Staying in my lane...
  • #5,538
  • Aug 11, 2018 4:48am Aug 11, 2018 4:48am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} i started doing order book trading when i came across darkstar's post on order flow and later on he made a book from it (expensive as well back then..but still useful) Look in this thread, i was banging the $$$ https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...46#post4892746 Problem was back then i was still very new at it so i was just gunning for stops left and right and sometimes weren't picking the best levels but after a while i realize that retail forex is not hte best market for this type of trading because the volume...
Hi hilmy83,

Do you pay to get access to P/S, volume data, etc.?
How does one know what goes on behind the scenes? Is this just from experience or watching the news?

In February the S&P 500 took a nose dive. Plenty commentary mentioning it was caused by algos... so they manipulate every market. Looking at the S&P chart it actually does look a lot smoother than most forex charts.

For the average person what is the minimum investment you would recommend? For me even $5,000 is just too much to risk.
Can you recommend further reading? Any other tips would be appreciated.

I know this is probably unrelated to this thread so this will be my final word on this matter. Sorry guys.

Many thanks.
  • #5,539
  • Aug 11, 2018 4:49am Aug 11, 2018 4:49am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Agree... let's delete our posts. not worth our time.
Thanks VEEFX.

BUT... I will be watching you LOL.
  • #5,540
  • Aug 11, 2018 8:40am Aug 11, 2018 8:40am
Quoting davidman
{quote} Hi hilmy83, Do you pay to get access to P/S, volume data, etc.? How does one know what goes on behind the scenes? Is this just from experience or watching the news? In February the S&P 500 took a nose dive. Plenty commentary mentioning it was caused by algos... so they manipulate every market. Looking at the S&P chart it actually does look a lot smoother than most forex charts. For the average person what is the minimum investment you would recommend? For me even $5,000 is just too much to risk. Can you recommend further reading? Any other...
Volume, p/s data is free from broker data provider (mine is cqg) when you open Futures account

I use daily and intraday profile to see how the market is shaping up (range day or extension etc). Then I use Dom/p/s once I'm in to see if market is supporting my entries. For ex. Sometimes I see >100 cars limit in dom ahead of my target, that's good cause that provides liquidity towards my target (price usually run through these orders). This is just very high level look, but orderflow is more mindset then technical analysis

$5000.is absolute min to start Futures cause you have to account for volatility. Best for me would be 1 contract/10k.

There are a lot of free stuff on market profile and order flow . Read Jim Dalton, CME book on market profile, search the order flow and MP threads on forexfactory . When you have read shit ton on this stuff you will start to understand how market structure works and can start picking the right kind of setups and exit strategies that fit your understanding
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