USD/JPY Discussion

looking at 110.735

stake $ 186 profit $ 110

Added NFP lines for today.

Updated with CFTC data from 8/31/2018

I may use SMA for TP, for warning signs not to trade in range bound market ie if its flatline / range bound that's when I'm most at risk of losing money by trying to trade break out which will most likely be rejected. Flat SMA is a killer for my profit. Take that breakout on attached picture. My rule is to wait for whole confirmation candle before trading, what would I have done last night ?? I would like to think I would wait for that retracement but then it was 100% retracement so a bear sign, tricky. All after a period of flat SMA. YUCK.

I find the SMA can bounce between 50 and 100 SMA too, I'll take that into consideration. Mostly I'm reliant on TL.

I still try to KISS - keep it simple stupid, and a simple moving average has that appeal.

I had a decent profit yesterday am- $500 through good reasonable trading and trusting my judgements, I'm even glad I closed my longs when I did it meant I had 4 profit trades instead of 2 profit, 2 BE.

Unfortunately yesterday afternoon I got impatient, greedy and stupid. My rule is to wait for whole candle confirmation breakout before entering trade but I jumped the gun with longs - see the first up arrow with whole candle above SMA but then shooting star, then again next arrow up tried and failed, then the the big bearish 5min candle finally wiped me just before the vertical line. I ended the day and the week in a loss, Fridays tend to be a bad trading day for me. I shouldn't have entered those trades as they were close to the TL. They were wishful. I also stared at the shooting star, rejection at TL and thought "wow that looks crap I should close those trades" but didn't. Fortunately I have tight SL but with 3 Lot trades and overtrading losses add very quickly. I'm going back to 2lot trades next week, 3 is an unlucky number lol. After reviewing this graph I would say best entry confirmation would be where that tick is with whole bearish candle below support. I'm sure I wouldv'e jumped the gun prior to then as late entry trades are also a pet hate of mine. Anyway. It's good to review and ponder ones disasters and charts. Maybe I was blinded by those stupid squiggly lines obstructing my view lol.

I realise I trade best from 9.30am -noon AEST, I'm best at scalping. I have been trying to get trades to last the distance and getting stopped out which has eaten a big bit of my profit, then I have tried an afternoon session which has screwed me up more. Next week I'm going back to short sharp hopefully smart 2.5 hour scalp session and walk away. Maybe 2.5hours is the limit of my attention span to trade well. It has been working well for me for months but getting a couple of good overnight trades slanted my method, but has not paid off this week. It's always a challenge.

Also I'm going to try keep my picture zoomed out, like the attached pic. I think the longer I trade each day my view becomes more myopic. It's clear in review my entries were poor in rangebound market.

Also I'm still tending bearish now, those lower highs on daily are getting a bit hard to ignore, though of course it hasn't broken bottom support yet.

Cheers H

It looks like a strong gap upward is coming in a few hours for USDJPY. Anyone held big lots into market close?

What gave you that idea?

And I would think the only traders who would hold over the weekend, especially these days with Tweety in the White House, would be position traders or those "gunslingers" who don't give a crap about risk. Here today, gone tomorrow types.

During weekends, use this you should.


https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter...rom=USD&To=JPY

Usd/Jpy is trading almost flat around 111.20, I expect the pair would stay neutral as long as it stays above the immediate support level at 110.59.

I am helding a long in short term, with fear...

Based partially in what this guy says: https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-...he-113-handle/

But I want to short (Weekly) too because right now UJ is on top of the downtrend channel (W), and indicators and lower highs are pointing this.

Rigth now I'm very confused.

Just wanted to share my opinions.

I´ve opened long position from beginning of the week. Working with H1 there wasn´t downtrend signal. I believed last bearish trend that it began 08/01 10 hs. was going to be a wave 4 but now i believe it was a wave B of a correction that it has started 07/26 8 hs (Wave A: 1-2-3). With H4 chart is easier for me to watch this correction. I hope the price crossing 112.13, potencial target of wave C 112.56 (76% Fibo).

I see the same you're seeing without the wave analysis, I just got nervous because of the lower highs in 1D, but when I zoom out I keep watching higher lows in 1D too. I hope it's a harsh correction.

Right now it is stalled below the 10MA in 1D around 111.300.

That is what I actually used Sir.

Just trust and nice trading.

Thanks, you too!

looking at 111.858

Placed a buy order at 111.359. Reasons:

On 4hr, daily, and weekly chart the price is above the 50SMA (uptrend).
Price broke through the 50 level fib (drawn from 26/07 - 01/08) on the 4hr chart. Then, rebounded on the 1hr.
When price broke through on the 4hr, there was little down pressure.

Going for a 112.112 profit, but will place the B/E @ 20 pips.

USD/JPY is trading well above 111.00 as the greenback is still influenced by the economic fundamentals from last week. Now first resistance is seen at 111.85 region, above which the pair is likely to test the 112.00 handle.