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Trading Made Simple

  • #89,161
  • Aug 5, 2018 8:41am Aug 5, 2018 8:41am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi Kenneth, Maybe that 'fakey' was because it was Friday 13th. What was on the calendar that week? Did you consider that in your trade planning. First you should know the H4 win rate for trading H4 using the PAC based on the past 5 years data. Buy win rate about 38% Sell win rate about 46% When you prepare your trade plan for Week 28 Jul 09 to 13, did you check what the market conditions were? The past 3 weeks - Week 25 to 27 were sideways. Under those sideways ranging conditions, you have to plan your H4 swing trades carefully because...
Thank you very much, Emm~
I will post A/U next time too.
  • #89,162
  • Aug 5, 2018 8:43am Aug 5, 2018 8:43am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Did you notice the support level at 3 Jul / 7 Jul 2018? Why do you what to sell when the angle of green is between 2/4? (Left side picture) #270 .............. If the TDI straight green line tweaks it's angle... pay close attention... check everything... it's warning you something has changed or is about to... #643................When checking out the TDI for a possible trade: Think of a wall clock here and it's arms... you want to see the green line for a long trade at the 12-2 angle for best results and a short trade at a 4-6 angle......
Thank you very much, Tekkies.
I keep ur kind comment in mind!
  • #89,163
  • Aug 5, 2018 9:33am Aug 5, 2018 9:33am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} That is just it. You don't trade every TDI crossover. - Green angle: Not between 12/2 or 4/6 stop right there and walk away. - Don't even bother to find reasons to place a trade by trying to use post#647 or price action. Both will give the same answer: No trade. (If that does not save time then I don't know what will and have no further answers) - Let TDI alarm call you when it finds a other crossover. - Only when the angle is right you go further with Post#647 (including other BigE post's) Same reply as previously: Post...
Now we come closer together :-)

So you don’t look at price action. Just Filter out the crosses alerted and looking for the correct angle? So why not having only TDI signals where the angle is right directly? So we don’t get 7 out of 10 false „alerts“ ? That’s what I mean by saving time...
  • #89,164
  • Aug 5, 2018 10:47am Aug 5, 2018 10:47am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Now we come closer together :-) So you don’t look at price action. Just Filter out the crosses alerted and looking for the correct angle? So why not having only TDI signals where the angle is right directly? So we don’t get 7 out of 10 false „alerts“ ? That’s what I mean by saving time...
Does not work like that. You still need to apply Post#647.
The angle is only the first filter.
In this post Post 89,157 right side picture:
- Look a green angle (below 4)
Applying Post#647:
- would have showed you or warned you that the trade might not last long because of support level at 3 / 7 Jul 2018 (left side picture)
----------------
#647................... Sounds like a lot of stuff but it's basic stuff and only takes a moment to observe it
#1025.................. When I see green cross red it's a set up...
but before taking the trade I look at PA, Hi/Lo, Res/Sup, Stochs, etc, etc BASIC Forex things you need to check on any method or possible entry..
If it all looks good, I jump in... only takes 30 sec. to look at it all when your experienced. It's quick...
#1412 ................ So many of the mistakes are just the basic things you need to know before even trading the forex...
--------------
"That’s what I mean by saving time"
Buy an expert advisor then you don't have to spend any time in front of the computer.
  • #89,165
  • Aug 5, 2018 12:59pm Aug 5, 2018 12:59pm

I could not see any discernable edge in trading the basic strategy. Whilst the TDI indicator seems adequate for getting into most trends it is too sensitive for exits (based on the suggested settings). For a test I used the EURUSD H4 chart over the last 6 weeks or so. I varied the exit based on 2 interpretations of the original rules and a 3rd exit strategy based on the HA candles themselves to try and keep in a mini-trend - as using the HA candles for their recognised purpose seemed a sensible proposition. So the exit rules were as follows:


(1) A very strict interpretation of the original strategy's exit which triggers on any change in direction of the TDI price line.

(2) A less strict interpretation of the original strategy's exit which triggers on a complete flattening out or reversal in direction of the TDI price line.

(3) An exit based on a change in color of the HA candles.


All entries/exits were taken on candle opens/closes as per the original strategy. I only considered BUYS for this test. The results are visually represented below.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 90 KB


The pip results are based on the 3 exit rules above with key as follows:


(1) Yellow

(2) Green (if different to (1))

(3) Blue (if different to (1))


The total pips generated based on the 3 tested exits over the period was:


(1) +2 pips

(2) -12 pips

(3) +33 pips


Some observations:


The market condition was ranging over the period but over a widish range of circa 250 pips. This condition is probably more characteristic of forex markets most of the time, i.e, no one direction predominates.


Although 2 Exit rules produced a profit neither was statistically significant.


As a comparison to this strategy I considered another common entry approach, divergences, and ignored the primary indicator used here (TDI). If one merely took divergences on the stochastic indicator alone (and only considering Longs as before) you could easily of had a pip score in the hundreds. The divergences are shown below (if you consider the Short signals also the pip total would have been above 500 hundred).


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 51 KB


So this strategy does not appear to work very successfully when considered on its own and doesn't compare very well to a traditional approach commonly used by all sorts of traders, that of using divergences as an entry signal.


tc



  • #89,166
  • Aug 5, 2018 1:08pm Aug 5, 2018 1:08pm
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Does not work like that. You still need to apply Post#647. The angle is only the first filter. In this post Post 89,157 right side picture: - Look a green angle (below 4) Applying Post#647: - would have showed you or warned you that the trade might not last long because of support level at 3 / 7 Jul 2018 (left side picture) ---------------- #647................... Sounds like a lot of stuff but it's basic stuff and only takes a moment to observe it #1025.....................
That’s what I was talking about the hole time. If you still need to consider so many different things which variables are random because every trader could interpret price action and where support and resistance is differently once you have that perfect TDI cross with right angle spotted. So it’s no system or even a strategy for me. BigE could simply have wrote „forget about everything and do what you see or like to do“ these rules are nothing more than some rules might worked for him to trade profitable but that’s not what I would consider calling a strategy or even system.
  • #89,167
  • Aug 5, 2018 1:14pm Aug 5, 2018 1:14pm
May ask if you also trade on Monday and fridays between London open until New York closing? Because for me I noticed on these days I tend to get into the most crap signals not sure yet why this is.
  • #89,168
  • Aug 5, 2018 2:41pm Aug 5, 2018 2:41pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} That’s what I was talking about the hole time. If you still need to consider so many different things which variables are random because every trader could interpret price action and where support and resistance is differently once you have that perfect TDI cross with right angle spotted. So it’s no system or even a strategy for me. BigE could simply have wrote „forget about everything and do what you see or like to do“ these rules are nothing more than some rules might worked for him to trade profitable but that’s not what I would consider...
I think you have worked out 1ddd that what the proponents of this system are trading is not the system at all but a much more nuanced version that is taking in S/R, prior price action etc etc (although they want to be suitably vague about the extra alignments and conditions they look for). I think it was Einstein who suggested that "..Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler". The original post proposing the system was too simple...nothing that simple would make a profit for any length of time, that profit would be arbitraged out of the markets very quickly..more so these days with algos able to analyse patterns in fractions of seconds.

IMHO the basic ideas of S/R and MTF analysis offer the best tools for finding a strategy and an entry in particular ..use an indicator if you want at these zones and at least you have a fighting chance of making a profit. As an extension to the above charts I posted and I went back over the prior 6 weeks (roughly one screen on my resolution) and drew a few major lines of S/R ….( I would use a HTF normally). I then used a stochastic divergence for entry. Exits could be based on several different regimes but it would hard to make a loss unless the trader was being extremely greedy (I like to close out at least 50% on a 2:1). Anyway you can see the basic idea - chart below. There's the basics of a system that took 5 minutes to design and could easily be refined but isn't based on anything esoteric or some innate skill or knowledge you haven't yet mastered (and are therefore commanded to trundle off to BabyPips and complete your schooling to acquire) - no this is simple common sense. You obviously have the intelligence by the questions you are asking... just do some backtesting and figure out a basic system, then refine it over time.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 45 KB


Back to real life...
  • #89,169
  • Aug 5, 2018 2:52pm Aug 5, 2018 2:52pm
Quoting tc11
I could not see any discernable edge in trading the basic strategy.
You will not be the first member to better the method.
There are major flaws with test method:
(Hindsight trading has no meaning also done by looking at the angle of green with out apply post#647. Missed a few entries / exit as well)
Blue line: Enter order
Yellow line: Exit order
Compare green test line against above lines.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: meaningless.PNG Size: 16 KB

---------------
  • #89,170
  • Aug 5, 2018 3:03pm Aug 5, 2018 3:03pm
Tekkies dont bother replying to my posts...
  • #89,171
  • Aug 5, 2018 3:12pm Aug 5, 2018 3:12pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi Kenneth, Maybe that 'fakey' was because it was Friday 13th. What was on the calendar that week? Did you consider that in your trade planning. First you should know the H4 win rate for trading H4 using the PAC based on the past 5 years data. Buy win rate about 38% Sell win rate about 46% When you prepare your trade plan for Week 28 Jul 09 to 13, did you check what the market conditions were? The past 3 weeks - Week 25 to 27 were sideways. Under those sideways ranging conditions, you have to plan your H4 swing trades carefully because...
best Regard emmanuel



life is short.enjoy your coffee...
life is short.enjoy your coffee...
  • #89,172
  • Aug 5, 2018 3:18pm Aug 5, 2018 3:18pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} That’s what I was talking about the hole time. If you still need to consider so many different things which variables are random because every trader could interpret price action and where support and resistance is differently once you have that perfect TDI cross with right angle spotted. So it’s no system or even a strategy for me. BigE could simply have wrote „forget about everything and do what you see or like to do“ these rules are nothing more than some rules might worked for him to trade profitable but that’s not what I would consider...

So what is the difference between a chart with no indicators, using Price Action alone and a chart with TDI. Price Action has even more variables that are at random.
------
In case you missed BigE's post:
#119......................On this method the TDI is King.
All trades are signaled by it as well as exits... does that keep it simple.
Only red and green lines (double thickness) and remove the others... cut out any possible confusion... make it simple for YOU !
------
Now what do you consider as a system or strategy?
  • #89,173
  • Aug 5, 2018 4:50pm Aug 5, 2018 4:50pm
Quoting Tekkies
So what is the difference between a chart with no indicators, using Price Action alone and a chart with TDI. Price Action has even more variables that are at random.
Sure thats right. I did not mean to trade a naked chart without any indicators (pure PA) would be less time consuming or that the Indicators used in this strategy wonīt make sense at all. I wanted to point out, that there are a lot of false signals by the TDI Crosses alone. And so the fact you still have to look at the basics (PA, SR, market condition in general, overall long term trend on the higher TF and so on) is where the real WORK just starts.

So letīs assume you are very trained and a true master interpreting all this correctly in 30 seconds like mentioned by BigE. Now thats where it gets contradictory to me. Because if you can see all this stuff correctly in a matter of seconds there is no big reason left you should have first looked at any indicator told you a cross of two lines. You could see this Cross happened by looking at price it self.

So your arguments having a TDI alert for the M15 for e.g (if trades are entered on the M30) sounds fine. But here with so many false signals my point was. So where does it saves you time. Letīs say you get 3 TDI Crosses every hour and you get called to your screen 3 times. Now you have to start looking again for every cross what price is doing at this moment making sure all these other rules talked about before getting into the trade.

Quoting Tekkies
Now what do you consider as a system or strategy?
Well in trading terms, this means to me a flow you can execute or at least follow with the same rules like every time before. You canīt do this here because the rules not even work on all market conditions the same. You cannot even filter out NOT getting a TDI Cross in a ranging market condition as far as i understand. Where a lot of these signals would end in a loss. So a strategy or system here would work either in EVERY market condition the same or make sure no signals would be given at all in such ranging market conditions where nearly every trade would fail or maybe give you break even results on entered perfectly on time.

If you still have to do all this manually every time before you open a position thatsīs just not something i personally would consider as a system or strategy because its not 1:1 repeatable. Its just a "guideline" you CAN stick to but donīt have to. Because all these rules BigE gave here can be looking different from trader A to trader B want to learn this "strategy" and end up with completely different results. A system or strategy as i understand would have some protection here that simply you canīt have different results. Thatīs why the big players most likely i think wonīt trade billion contracts by watching a chart and making their decisions on the cross of two lines or they would at least have this completely managed by some robot following the rules 1:1 like programmed on each new trade over the next 100 years and make sure they still end up in profit even if its just a 20% yearly.
  • #89,174
  • Aug 5, 2018 5:00pm Aug 5, 2018 5:00pm
AUDUSD and AUDJPY Week 32

August 06 is bank holiday.

August 07 is RBA rate statement.

Anything can happen.

Always trade with Stop Loss and use %Risk and Position Sizing.

Trade Well folks.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #89,175
  • Aug 5, 2018 5:15pm Aug 5, 2018 5:15pm
Quoting KennethYang
{quote} Thank you very much, Emm~ I will post A/U next time too.


You are using the TDI RT version and do your own compare of the older version (post#25) used by Big E and the newer version TDI RT.

Also, when you trade using the PAC it is the same way Big E started trading when he was a newbie. You will see more his examples in his old thread.
Since you use the PAc as one of your trade decision, your rules should be different (conservative) and no mix with Big E aggressive entry scalping rules.

You may also want to consider changing your TDI RT to the same setting as used in the Synergy Pro TDI and combine the use with the PAC.

And this old post 7622 has a few good points to take note of.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Big E Post 7622.png Size: 120 KB


TDI Compare - below:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H4 Jul 03 to 26 TDI compare.png Size: 66 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #89,176
  • Aug 5, 2018 5:21pm Aug 5, 2018 5:21pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
Anything can happen.
Thats true for every day :-) Not just because there is holiday or some news.
  • #89,177
  • Aug 5, 2018 6:05pm Aug 5, 2018 6:05pm
Knowledge + Experience

borrowed this from Pips_Cruiser


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: knowledge and experience pips cruiser.png Size: 296 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #89,178
  • Aug 5, 2018 6:13pm Aug 5, 2018 6:13pm
After reading through the last 5 days posts, I still have this same conclusion...

Too much time is being spent on TDI and Stochastics,
Too little time on Price Action and Support/Resistance.
And no time spend on Money Management, Risk Management for entries and exits, When and How to Let Profits Run.
You need to find your WINNING EDGE and the TDI is not in the winning edge equation.

Do you have the mental edge with an indicator like the TDI?

You may find your answers in this book.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Mental Edge in Trading by Jason Williams.png Size: 567 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #89,179
  • Aug 6, 2018 2:04am Aug 6, 2018 2:04am
Hi,

Gold 1H trading.
+10 + 10 = +20!
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  • #89,180
  • Aug 6, 2018 3:23am Aug 6, 2018 3:23am
Quoting lddd
{quote} following the rules 1:1 like programmed on each new trade over the next 100 years and make sure they still end up in profit even if its just a 20% yearly.
Well that is what I do day in / day out.
- TDI M15 alert
- Apply post#647 to both chart's
- Rinse and repeat.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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