Attachments: USD/TRY

USD/TRY

#1,421
Aug 1, 2018 12:26pm Aug 1, 2018 12:26pm

shebalik
| Joined May 2016 | Status: Trader | 264 Posts

If you are thinking to short, just keep in mind that we have a new record on this pair and daily RSI is still below 70, around 66 levels. Very low probability but 5.25 is my Friday target if things get crazy. Otherwise we can continue increasing slowly and can see 5.50 in 5 months.

Position Trader

#1,422
Aug 1, 2018 12:36pm Aug 1, 2018 12:36pm

blackwinter
Joined Jun 2018 | Status: Trader | 498 Posts

Quoting blackwinter

Disliked

{quote} FMs of sides will meet on friday about issue..says the news.. Inflation data also coming on friday.. https://www.bloomberght.com/haberler...yuze-gorusecek

Ignored

Exit my short from 4.91 at 5..

make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..

#1,423
Aug 1, 2018 12:49pm Aug 1, 2018 12:49pm

Alluri
| Joined Sep 2016 | Status: Trader | 190 Posts

Quoting blackwinter

Disliked

{quote} Exit my short from 4.91 at 5..

Ignored

I know the way it was moving it must be scary but 5 was in any case a psychological level for reaction

Hard luck

Think Think Think.

#1,424
Edited 1:09pm Aug 1, 2018 12:53pm | Edited 1:09pm

Ced74
Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 5,460 Posts

3.50 a.m
Just dragged myself out of bed to check computer.....Bloody Hell...Talk about crazy numbers.
Forget about the coffee I am going to buy a new keyboard later to-day
R

Attached Image

Ronnie Renko

#1,425
Aug 1, 2018 1:00pm Aug 1, 2018 1:00pm

aa4fx
Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Trader | 1,642 Posts

I took some tiny money from it but this time it was not so easy ...
Entered first without much thinking but too soon! then I started to evaluate the situation, ... it moved a few hundreds against me, expected move, then a retrace but not enough to exit profitable ... I was loosing 100e on usdtry and 200e on eurtry (not comfortable to take at least one out and see later), ... then, of course, a move up to destroy some early party ... I was loosing again almost 0.8-1k on each when I added the second position ... exit the extra first just in case it will have other games in plan ... then exit the losers, ... small profit overall.
It might be that a full retrace will happen, but I didn't want to have it with me.
In such adventure a knowledge over the pair movement behavior is a must, ... I have a tiny knowledge with this pair as I looked very little on it, I hope I will spend more time with it.

#1,426
Aug 1, 2018 1:30pm Aug 1, 2018 1:30pm

shebalik
| Joined May 2016 | Status: Trader | 264 Posts

Quoting aa4fx

Disliked

I took some tiny money from it but this time it was not so easy ... Entered first without much thinking but too soon! then I started to evaluate the situation, ... it moved a few hundreds against me, expected move, then a retrace but not enough to exit profitable ... I was loosing 100e on usdtry and 200e on eurtry (not comfortable to take at least one out and see later), ... then, of course, a move up to destroy some early party ... I was loosing again almost 0.8-1k on each when I added the second position ... exit the extra first just in case it...

Ignored

Nice save! Since we are making new highs on this pair there isn't any level to take as reference. For new long positions we should wait to see RSI closing above 67 on daily. That is previous RSI level on previous all time high few weeks back. Right now its at 66.

Position Trader

#1,427
Aug 1, 2018 1:33pm Aug 1, 2018 1:33pm

Alluri
| Joined Sep 2016 | Status: Trader | 190 Posts

Quoting aa4fx

Disliked

I took some tiny money from it but this time it was not so easy ... Entered first without much thinking but too soon! then I started to evaluate the situation, ... it moved a few hundreds against me, expected move, then a retrace but not enough to exit profitable ... I was loosing 100e on usdtry and 200e on eurtry (not comfortable to take at least one out and see later), ... then, of course, a move up to destroy some early party ... I was loosing again almost 0.8-1k on each when I added the second position ... exit the extra first just in case it...

Ignored

had a similar experience shorting at 4.98724 it moved up to 5.01 but just held to it and booked some small profits in the first move down from 5.

Think Think Think.

#1,428
Aug 1, 2018 1:51pm Aug 1, 2018 1:51pm

kingofmicro
| Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 251 Posts

Federal Funds Rate 2.0. No rate, no money. Sell dollar against major pairs.

< it is not investment advice >

#1,429
Aug 1, 2018 2:14pm Aug 1, 2018 2:14pm

2dollardog
Joined Nov 2017 | Status: Rebarkable | 1,428 Posts

In the recent press briefing at the White House, Sarah re-affirmed Trumps decision to sanction Turkey. Not sure if it will impact, but important to keep in mind since that spat seems to weigh on this pair.

Trade safe!

#1,430
Aug 1, 2018 2:41pm Aug 1, 2018 2:41pm

blackwinter
Joined Jun 2018 | Status: Trader | 498 Posts

Quoting MisterWhite

Disliked

{quote} I think we’re definitely due for a correction in TRY pairs. In fact, I’m betting on it. {image} {image}

Ignored

I think, your EurTry exposure is too much and too risky..lira may fall a lot more in one year time if Politicians continue pursuing idiocracy..i dont know what you can do but i suggest short another high swap pairs with less political risk..of course they are risky also given Fed hikes in sep and dec..but they may return down later...eurtry and usdtry most likely will go higher and higher and will not go back probably..every time very limited correction..for example, i think; eurtry will never see again 5.00s..but 6 is quite possible in following months and 7,8 can happen for eurtry if things go out of control..Turkish politicians do everthing for lira's devaluation which makes everthing worse in the country..

But i dont know swap profits in the long run..if it compensate it is good..

Best wishes

make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..

#1,431
Aug 1, 2018 3:09pm Aug 1, 2018 3:09pm

aa4fx
Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Trader | 1,642 Posts

usdtry now @ 4.9894
I wouldn't be surprised to see 5.0216, I think I will sell it if reach.
On the other side, a drop to 4.9480 and then go upper looks much more realistic ...
Meanwhile, I booked a little bit more from *try.

#1,432
Aug 1, 2018 3:10pm Aug 1, 2018 3:10pm

MisterWhite
Joined Jun 2015 | Status: Trader | 196 Posts

Quoting blackwinter

Disliked

{quote} I think, your EurTry exposure is too much and too risky..lira may fall a lot more in one year time if Politicians continue pursuing idiocracy..i dont know what you can do but i suggest short another high swap pairs with less political risk..of course they are risky also given Fed hikes in sep and dec..but they may return down later...eurtry and usdtry most likely will go higher and higher and will not go back probably..every time very limited correction..for example, i think; eurtry will never see again 5.00s..but 6 is quite possible in...

Ignored

The swap is very good; better than USD/TRY, even. I'm at 0.955 lot, now. I'm considering reducing to 0.8 in the next couple of days. I'll end up taking a small loss, like I did today, but I suspect that USD gains will more than make up for that, considering my position size there, plus whatever swap I have made. I plan to be 2:1 USD:EUR exposure, by Friday. I'm planning on taking the big loss in EUR at the end of the year, to offset tax obligation.

#1,433
Aug 1, 2018 4:36pm Aug 1, 2018 4:36pm

blackwinter
Joined Jun 2018 | Status: Trader | 498 Posts

Quoting 2dollardog

Disliked

In the recent press briefing at the White House, Sarah re-affirmed Trumps decision to sanction Turkey. Not sure if it will impact, but important to keep in mind since that spat seems to weigh on this pair. Trade safe!

Ignored

"The US Treasury announced that the US is sanctioning the two Turkish officials, Minister of Justice Abdulhamit Gul and Minister of Interior Suleyman Soylu, for their role in Brunson's arrest and detention.............."

"Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu responded on Twitter, saying, "the effort by the US to impose sanctions on our two ministers will not go unanswered. We cannot solve our problems until the US administration understands that it cannot get its unlawful demands with this method."
The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs also put out a strong response, stating, "we vehemently protest the sanctions decision announced by the US Treasury Department. ... A reciprocal response will be given without delay to this aggressive attitude which serves no purpose." The ministry also called on the US to step back from what it called a "wrongful decision."
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is expected to meet with Cavusoglu on Friday in Singapore......."

This issue seems going to be very serious confrontation. Both sides opt to escalate tension.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/01/p...ons/index.html

make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..

#1,434
Aug 1, 2018 7:57pm Aug 1, 2018 7:57pm

2dollardog
Joined Nov 2017 | Status: Rebarkable | 1,428 Posts

Quoting blackwinter

Disliked

{quote} "The US Treasury announced that the US is sanctioning the two Turkish officials, Minister of Justice Abdulhamit Gul and Minister of Interior Suleyman Soylu, for their role in Brunson's arrest and detention.............." "Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu responded on Twitter, saying, "the effort by the US to impose sanctions on our two ministers will not go unanswered. We cannot solve our problems until the US administration understands that it cannot get its unlawful demands with this method." The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs...

Ignored

I have seen Trump act all mean before allowing his opponent save face so they can negotiate. I don't think it's the case with Erdogan. One of Trump's agenda is to be pro Christianity. Should get interesting. I need more popcorn.

I'm bullish the dollar, so I am long this pair unless TRY shows more strength. I hope I'm right. sigh

#1,435
Aug 1, 2018 8:25pm Aug 1, 2018 8:25pm

Ced74
Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 5,460 Posts

I may need two phone numbers now ,both vans could arrive at the same time.
R

Quoting MisterWhite

Disliked

I think I may need one of these... Just made major gains on USD, but took a big loss (almost $1,000 nominal, only $250 after swap is accounted for) on EUR, to balance out my position, a bit. {image}

Ignored

Ronnie Renko