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  • #1,341
  • Edited 12:56am Jul 26, 2018 12:36am | Edited 12:56am
Bored at this moment so have taken a quick buy scalp trade at 4.8020 after spread.....Looking for coles Grocery Money for to-morrow.....Always some movement prior to Frankfurt open.
I have now set T/Profit at 4.8200...I have taken multiple trades.
O.K reached taken as I type...Money in the Bank so Trout and chips for dinner to-morrow.....
R
R
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Ronnie Renko
  • #1,342
  • Jul 26, 2018 1:00am Jul 26, 2018 1:00am
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Ronnie Renko
  • #1,343
  • Jul 26, 2018 1:02am Jul 26, 2018 1:02am
I am sure that all folks know about different price feeds with Brokers..
R
Ronnie Renko
  • #1,344
  • Jul 26, 2018 2:25am Jul 26, 2018 2:25am
never thought that I would have another Love Affair at this time in my life but this could happen with usdtry...Ho! Ho!Ho!
R


Quoting Aussi
{quote} this is why i love the try
Ronnie Renko
  • #1,345
  • Edited 8:00am Jul 26, 2018 5:40am | Edited 8:00am
usdtry is in no mans land at present so I have taken another quick scalp but for a sell this time.
Entered..4.8240...T/Profit target...4.8000 or sooner
Update...Have taken profit...not waiting for T/P Target......
R
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Ronnie Renko
  • #1,346
  • Jul 26, 2018 6:02am Jul 26, 2018 6:02am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} Actually, i m suprised at so much drop today in usdtry..the news above is one reason and another is that when closing NY Trump came out with agreeing EU in trade matters..bla bla..also wednesday triple swaps helped probably..but, still very suprising come down for me after no rate hike yesterday..next week there is monthly inflation data for Lira..Ecb meeting and Usa growth data coming soon which may effect usd index..lets see what happen..i dont have any direction bias for short term..lira is very confusing for me nowadays..i m usually...

I appreciate your honesty. This helps me guide my own internal narrative. I see it exactly the same and am beginning to believe it doesn't really matter (I know Aussie is perking up right about now. ha)

Up to this point, in general, I see that Turkey has a lot of good business ties and this stymies the weakening of the Lira. Some analysts suggest that this economic goodness from Turkey can play out over a long time and the only real interruption in its economy is the handing of the central bank, interest rates and the inflation which it addresses.

I try to keep in mind Erdogan is pandering to devout Islamic الشريعة that interest is usury. Also, long term investors can be weary based upon fundamentals.

Good business ties dampen my long-term bearish bias on the Lira. My bias is what is pitting me in the chart traps such as you describe. I see them all the time. I speculate these are algos, the market maker and shark traders. When I'm very confident in the correlation of the two currencies I can ignore these and trade around. Ergo, I refer back to Aussie's wisdom in recounting only technical trading for this pair. Not sure why I cannot leave it at technical. Maybe I'm bored. Maybe I'm I'm missing some skills and have been a mental loafer. I have been able to step back, look at the charts and say "Just buy at x price or sell at x price if there is enough R:R" while thinking of Aussie's charts, but still I'm mentally loafing and should work out a risk parameters for the longer term survival.

In the end, these fundamentals are only helping in explaining after the fact. For example! Over the course of three months I would routinely show up at 2am my time and trade the price as I saw it. It was glorious! I didn't realize it was prior to Frankfurt opening, didn't realize it was the timing of the economic releases and knew nothing about Erdogan's rise to power, but I did know about the elections. I did just fine! But the Lira was extremely weak and afterward I realized he was dissing the interest rates. Once I knew this, I erroneously began to think I could control the market play. Therein lies my mental problems, huh?

The only fundamental I should pay attention is the financial releases, perhaps.

What I normally do is sit on my hands (hopefully!) and watch the correlation like a hawk until the top of the hour or such time it is less risky to make a trade. That's all I do other than having calculated risk parameters and protect account with a hard wide stop. (forex.com has dynamic spread up to 350 pips for this pair and they do also admit to dynamic margins)

I know that Aussie would suggest my efforts are futile and I absolutely agree with this wisdom. Not sure why I need to waste my time. lolz.

I have begun catching myself when I want to place a trade right after making a winning trade. I think "Oh. This is Easy!" and I am now stopping that thinking so I don't over trade and give my money back. Immediately following London Open moves, dxy index gets vicious and lies constantly.

I just woke. Apologies for any incoherent thoughts.

Since I'm only scalping, it is important for me to NOT trade from 4am until NY open. Even NY open is very wicked and more dangerous than the time just prior to Frankfurt opening or London open. When I really look at it, the windows of opportunities are limited and I almost always lose (sometimes too much!) outside of those windows.

I got into trading so that I didn't need to work long hours, but the old work ethic is pervasive and compels me to go against the trading grain.
  • #1,347
  • Edited 1:11pm Jul 26, 2018 12:00pm | Edited 1:11pm
Important news..

https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=798399
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,348
  • Edited 5:45pm Jul 26, 2018 2:13pm | Edited 5:45pm
Quoting 2dollardog
{quote} I appreciate your honesty. This helps me guide my own internal narrative. I see it exactly the same and am beginning to believe it doesn't really matter (I know Aussie is perking up right about now. ha) Up to this point, in general, I see that Turkey has a lot of good business ties and this stymies the weakening of the Lira. Some analysts suggest that this economic goodness from Turkey can play out over a long time and the only real interruption in its economy is the handing of the central bank, interest rates and the inflation which it...
I think, most of us (fx traders) are making same mistakes again and again..esp. relatively small accounts which are trading with leverage, like me..we are trying to grow up fast..we are setting achievable targets such as %1 growth daily, but somehow we couldnt be loyal to plan..when we start to have %5-%10 account growth in some days, our mindset is changing gradually..and with increased confidence, suddenly we find ourselves while trying %5-%10 account growth daily..then, we hit to the walls and experience large drawbacks..then, most difficult part is starting..revival from ashes really, it is very very difficult thing to stop loss streak, to calm down, to manage the damage control, to motivate yourself again and to start to walk again in your long and alone journey..it is really difficult pyshologically..many of us probably experienced similar things if enough time has been passed in this business..

There are a lot of things written in ff about what should do and what should not to do in fx trading..we are reading and learning a lot over time..but managing and succeeding in trading (especially pyshologically) is different and difficult than having knowledge (technically-fundamentally) or knowing what to do..

Of course, trading strategies may change according to account size..but, problems are usualy similar..greed, overleverage, overtrade, exit early with fear due to improper leverage, lack of patience(especially when opening trade, most of us are not waiting for better entry prices)...

for handling above problems, following priciples may help (at least, i hope those will be helpful for me in future..see how)
1)diversification (for example, 1/3 position in usdtry, 1/3 position in indices such as Nasdaq, SP500, 1/3 position in majors)
2)scaling when entry
3)less leverage (1/10 or maybe 1/5 better)
4)no overtrade (diversification may help, it can be opened different trades in different times so that we can satisfy our always having some trades appetite..i mean, some small position at A currency in the morning, then at B currency in the afternoon, then C currency in the evening can be opened depending on instruments traded and time zone characteristics..diversification may help in reducing risk exposure and also may help in managing continuously trading desires..)

Actually, i have restarted fx trading two months ago after two years break..i have accumulated a lot of knowlege and experince in the past..i hope this time i can also accumulate money over time
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,349
  • Jul 26, 2018 3:26pm Jul 26, 2018 3:26pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} I think, most of us (fx traders) are making same mistakes again and again..esp. relatively small accounts which are trading with leverage, like me..we are trying to grow up fast..we are setting achievable targets such as %1 growth daily, but somehow we couldnt be loyal to plan..when we start to have %5-%10 account growth in some days, our mindset is changing gradually..and with increased confidence, suddenly we find ourselves while trying %5-%10 acoount growth daily..then, we hit to the walls and experience large drawbacks..then, most difficult...
true story
  • #1,350
  • Jul 26, 2018 4:50pm Jul 26, 2018 4:50pm
Quoting blackwinter
Important news.. https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=798399
Important news, but not enough at this point in the price action level. It is going to take a lot more than threats of sanctions over one person to keep the lira falling at this point. I mean, maybe sanctions are important, but it is too easy to solve. Everyone has seen the Turkish President get through these sorts of threats easily many times over the years. If the Lira was very strong, it might have been market moving, but with a weak Lira it is just a hiccough.
  • #1,351
  • Jul 26, 2018 5:25pm Jul 26, 2018 5:25pm
Quoting eozdural
{quote} Important news, but not enough at this point in the price action level. It is going to take a lot more than threats of sanctions over one person to keep the lira falling at this point. I mean, maybe sanctions are important, but it is too easy to solve. Everyone has seen the Turkish President get through these sorts of threats easily many times over the years. If the Lira was very strong, it might have been market moving, but with a weak Lira it is just a hiccough.
It has affected partly today (200-300 pips after news)..not a big movement though..the weakness of lira and Turkish economy may increase the effects of any sanction..the economy is already vulnerable and fragile..however, i dont expect that the crisis will grow to the sanction level..probably, the man will be released and go back to his country as happened similarly at jailed German journalist crisis with Germany just several months ago..after resting and bluffing each other, German journalist has been freed one day and flied back to Germany..probably and hopefully, this tense issue will be solved similarly..otherwise, there can be real consequences, because it is an almost two-year ongoing tension which may poison the relations further..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,352
  • Jul 26, 2018 8:59pm Jul 26, 2018 8:59pm
O.K here is another pretty picture for all the "Art Lovers"
Happy to buy down to S200 with swap fees in my favour.May take a little while...Yes I know it is not try but Man does not live on bread alone.
R
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Ronnie Renko
  • #1,353
  • Jul 26, 2018 9:07pm Jul 26, 2018 9:07pm
Renko chart on another broker .
R
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Ronnie Renko
  • #1,354
  • Jul 27, 2018 3:29am Jul 27, 2018 3:29am
Attached Image
  • #1,355
  • Jul 27, 2018 3:44am Jul 27, 2018 3:44am
Quoting Ced74
O.K here is another pretty picture for all the "Art Lovers" Happy to buy down to S200 with swap fees in my favour.May take a little while...Yes I know it is not try but Man does not live on bread alone. R {image}
Good for you ced. Green is green!
  • #1,356
  • Jul 27, 2018 4:05am Jul 27, 2018 4:05am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} I think, most of us (fx traders) are making same mistakes again and again..esp. relatively small accounts which are trading with leverage, like me..we are trying to grow up fast..we are setting achievable targets such as %1 growth daily, but somehow we couldnt be loyal to plan..when we start to have %5-%10 account growth in some days, our mindset is changing gradually..and with increased confidence, suddenly we find ourselves while trying %5-%10 account growth daily..then, we hit to the walls and experience large drawbacks..then, most difficult...
Good stuff. That introspection is what makes it happen. Of course, the ability to apply is even more important. It's hard!

At once point I had my teenager set an alarm one hour after London Open. He was instructed to come in and yell at me, "GET OUT OF THE MARKET!!" He actually enjoyed this. Gave him permission to be aggressive to me and get back at all of his "misfortunes" because of me. LOL Then, I scheduled a very important task at that time (of which its time is now and I need to hurry and go do it.) It's something that would ruin everyone's day if it isn't done in this time. It keeps me from trading until NY.

It worked. My mind got into the habit of taking a break after my best trade setup. My son can sleep through the night again.

I mean, when I can make 10% in 1 or 2 hours via USDTRY, there's an underlying gambling mentality that says, "This is easy!" or greed sets in. Or I have revenge in mind. My revenge is subtle and almost reasonable, but I'll do it at the worst time of day. I've done the math. Losses are expected. Must stick to the plan. There's so many ways we sabotage ourselves! Dear Newbies that might read this. That percentage is very alluring. Please don't trade the Turkish Lira until you really and truly know how to trade. You'll lose your pants just as quick, too.

1% to 25% per trade! Why is that not enough? I must go enjoy my day doing something else until the most risk-free trade setup becomes available.

I made 10% this week. 10% ! Everyone is fighting for less than this on a consistent basis ! Why is it not enough. And as I sit here right now, my gut wants another trade,to win, to have that same feeling again. But I know the truth: It's Friday. It's a day that has a greater probability that I will give money back to the market. It's better not to trade. If my mind is in a good spot, I can patiently wait for a near-perfect setup, but it's better if I forfeit trading all together.
  • #1,357
  • Jul 27, 2018 4:21am Jul 27, 2018 4:21am
Quoting 2dollardog
{quote} ! Dear Newbies that might read this. That percentage is very alluring. Please don't trade the Turkish Lira until you really and truly know how to trade. You'll lose your pants just as quick, too. 1% to 25% per trade! Why is that not enough? I must go enjoy my day doing something else until the most risk-free trade setup becomes available. I made 10% this week. 10% ! Everyone is fighting for less than this on a consistent basis ! Why is it not enough. And as I sit here right now, my gut wants another trade,to win, to have that same feeling...
dude ım from turkey and u guys know much then me about turkish lira and respect all u doing good job here
  • #1,358
  • Jul 27, 2018 5:03am Jul 27, 2018 5:03am
Quoting samet
{quote} dude ım from turkey and u guys know much then me about turkish lira and respect all u doing good job here

Hey Sam. With watching your country, I have enjoyed the walk through history, learning a little about Turkey's deep culture and the will of the people. (I love these kinds of studies.) This morning I was thinking that your cultural ties are enviable. Then I found Erdogan's statement that I misread "Our solidarity makes some jealous!" In that it was correct, but he was referencing Erdogan's ties with Russia My bad.

Wishing peace and prosperity to Turkey.
  • #1,359
  • Jul 27, 2018 5:32am Jul 27, 2018 5:32am
$ down
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  • #1,360
  • Edited 6:21am Jul 27, 2018 6:06am | Edited 6:21am
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Update: 0721 NYT
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