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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #5,941
  • Edited 9:15am Jul 23, 2018 8:56am | Edited 9:15am
Quoting samsonwebdes
{quote} If I'd have seen your charts I probably would have thought twice about an entry there but mine tell a different story. US close candles look totally different to your chart and to me look like we're in a consolidation area where I'm expecting price to drop after that big break below the support. This current H4 candle close for me will be the confirmation of that hopefully with a break and close below 1.31100. If not we'll still be in consolidation but price action looks bearish. Time will tell. I have a small entry to test the market in...
You are right, I should have been more detailed on what I meant:
- H4 started initiating a swing low (TBC in my H4 in 2 hours)
- PA clearly down, so taking a short position is the safe bet

BUT

- Recent upwards push gives me pause
- Buyers at 1.3100 3-4 times in June/July
- I want to see price reaction on EMA 20 of H4 which is also about where buyers manifested themselves (1.3100 area)

So, even if I come in late, I will wait for reaction on 1.31 area and decide afterwards

I wish we had our own physical trading room to have these conversations, this is great stuff!

EDIT:
- When trading H4 swings on H1 positions, I noticed that reaction on EMA20 on both TFs is rather important
- I would not be selling GU if the H4 chart was an M5 chart, and you know that I am wired on M5 charts now, for better or worse
  • #5,942
  • Jul 23, 2018 9:06am Jul 23, 2018 9:06am
GBPUSD H4

Quoting samsonwebdes
{quote} If I'd have seen your charts I probably would have thought twice about an entry there but mine tell a different story. US close candles look totally different to your chart and to me look like we're in a consolidation area where I'm expecting price to drop after that big break below the support. This current H4 candle close for me will be the confirmation of that hopefully with a break and close below 1.31100. If not we'll still be in consolidation but price action looks bearish. Time will tell. I have a small entry to test the market in...
Seems to me like you are all missing the basics of PASR - 3 time frame analysis

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,943
  • Jul 23, 2018 9:15am Jul 23, 2018 9:15am
PASR

Quoting samsonwebdes
{quote} Hi Victoria, How I handle a trade and approach stops may not be right for you but have a read of this post which may help you understand how I approach risk. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post11263487 Personally I like to set an amount I'm happy to lose on a trade and don't just get in once and set a hard stop. If price action starts to look like I was wrong I get out manually and take the loss. If you find you are getting stopped out a lot and price then moves in your direction, set the stops a bit bigger...
If you are new to trading or new to PASR you are not going to get in perfectly each time. Hell I don't get in perfectly and I've been on the path for many, many months now.

Neither can I and I've been doing it a bit longer! There is not a trader dead or alive who can boast or claim of making perfect entries and exits because there are none. We just have to believe in ourselves and our strategy and manage our executions to the best of our ability.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,944
  • Jul 23, 2018 9:19am Jul 23, 2018 9:19am
Quoting strat
GBPUSD H4 {quote} Seems to me like you are all missing the basics of PASR - 3 time frame analysis {image} {image} {image}
You are quite correct Strat as always.

I'm trading this off the H1 chart so the H4 is my boss. Should have posted my H1 chart but was responding to someone elses post so got a bit sidetracked.
I took the entry off the nice BEEB on the H1 but I didn't actually consult the big boss in this case which is my error.

I'll be employing rule #1 and if the trade is wrong I'll get out.

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Study enough and it all starts looking like the Matrix...
  • #5,945
  • Jul 23, 2018 10:43am Jul 23, 2018 10:43am
USDJPY

Quoting JCMPete
{quote} Hi Strat and Company Thank you for the invitation to post. Herewith my UsdJpy charts and analysis... BigBoss: Based on my chart and available data the Big Boss is in a long term downtrend / channel from 1998 ranging from 145ish to a low of 75ish. (Just rounding the numbers). From the LL in February 2012 UsdJpy is in a uptrend with the LH reached in June 2015 at the long term down TL at 125ish where the trend line was tested until December 2015 before it started retracing its tracks with a BEEB, a hanging man in January 2016 and then a huge...
You have got comments from Rufus but I'm disappointed you didn't get anymore. I held off commenting awaiting others but since they have no interest here goes:

Big Boss
Significant for me is that the June BUEB candle closed above the 20MA

Pete - there is no ""June BUEB"" - you need to go back and study candlesticks.

You missed the most important PRICE ACTION on the Big Boss - PRICE is REJECTED from RESISTANCE!

Final analysis - short term trend is up.
short term trend WAS up - PRICE will likely go sideways

Boss
On the Boss i am focusing my analysis on the very short term trend up from 105ish
Good - that is the beginning of the Boss Swing

In my mind there is a confluence of trendlines
Be careful using trend lines - they can CONFUSE more they can help. If you don't get any value from them, don't use them

You missed the most important PRICE ACTION on the Boss - PRICE is REJECTED from RESISTANCE!

Worker
Good

Well done Pete but for each time frame concentrate on the most recent candles and PASR in addition to reciting history.

Forget DSRI - I just made it up to have fun with and sucker in the Indicator crowd!

As soon as I made reference to it I was swamped with requests for it. I got so many requests that I cobbled up and pasted some rubbish code only for the Indicator Suckers to tell me it didn't work and would I check it and re-post exactly as I used it. Just shows you the mentality and trading intelligence level of those in Indicator Land!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,946
  • Jul 23, 2018 1:01pm Jul 23, 2018 1:01pm
Quoting Rufus
{quote} Hi JCM Pete. Great to see you posting and reading through the threads. I'm not sure what DSRI is so forgive me there. It looks like FXCM charting. Is there any way to get the Strat Shadow on your charts. I don't remember if FXCM gives you the option of using a moving average ribbon. If so you should be able to get it. If not maybe open a demo account that has MT4. When FXCM was in this country they had both platforms available, not sure about your country. Anyway, if you get the Strat Shadow running it will help you visually in seeing what...
Hi Rufus

Thank you for your comments. I will get the Strat Shadow onto my charts as suggested. FXCM does have MT4 so I will look at using that if necessary. Fibs - noted. i will look up the references on weekly control candles. I missed the new candle that is in play. Thank you for pointing that out along with your other comments. I really appreciate it.

Regards
Pete
  • #5,947
  • Jul 23, 2018 1:19pm Jul 23, 2018 1:19pm
Quoting strat
USDJPY {quote} You have got comments from Rufus but I'm disappointed you didn't get anymore. I held off commenting awaiting others but since they have no interest here goes: Big Boss Significant for me is that the June BUEB candle closed above the 20MA Pete - there is no ""June BUEB"" - you need to go back and study candlesticks. You missed the most important PRICE ACTION on the Big Boss - PRICE is REJECTED from RESISTANCE! Final analysis - short term trend is up. short term trend WAS up - PRICE will likely go sideways Boss On the Boss i am focusing...
Hi Strat

Thank you for your comments. I really appreciate your guidance with my post. Let me go back to my charts and review them along with your comments to make sure I understand where I missed and where I went wrong before answering.

Thanks
Pete
  • #5,948
  • Jul 23, 2018 3:04pm Jul 23, 2018 3:04pm
Quoting JCMPete
{quote} Hi Strat and Company Thank you for the invitation to post. Herewith my UsdJpy charts and analysis... BigBoss: Based on my chart and available data the Big Boss is in a long term downtrend / channel from 1998 ranging from 145ish to a low of 75ish. (Just rounding the numbers). From the LL in February 2012 UsdJpy is in a uptrend with the LH reached in June 2015 at the long term down TL at 125ish where the trend line was tested until December 2015 before it started retracing its tracks with a BEEB, a hanging man in January 2016 and then a huge...

Just my two cents: Green line with arrow is BB significant level from July 2016 which is a long time ago but seems to be acting as support in this case. Worker is bouncing from this level today forming a hammer. Something to consider for a long position.
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  • #5,949
  • Jul 23, 2018 3:28pm Jul 23, 2018 3:28pm
Quoting samsonwebdes
{quote} Hi Victoria, Your stop I think was probably way too tight on that trade. If you are trading a swing you need to let the trade breathe. One thing I've learned the hard way is to give price room to breathe. Some people trade tight stops and just keep getting back in after a stop out. Personally I prefer to get in small and build with a big stop so the big boys wild moves and stop runs don't catch me out. Look at price action now you are out. BEEB forming and about to hopefully close below the 200MA on the H1. If it does It'll be on my radar...

Looks like a potential for a short term trade down to support but I would be waiting for price to reach the BB support level to see what happens there. If price does break through that level, some significant pips to be made down to next support. Of course that is a long term trade in keeping with Long Term Stress Free Trading.
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  • #5,950
  • Jul 23, 2018 4:33pm Jul 23, 2018 4:33pm
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} Just my two cents: Green line with arrow is BB significant level from July 2016 which is a long time ago but seems to be acting as support in this case. Worker is bouncing from this level today forming a hammer. Something to consider for a long position. {image} {image}
Worker is bouncing from this level today forming a hammer.

Dragonfly doji not a Hammer
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,951
  • Jul 23, 2018 5:37pm Jul 23, 2018 5:37pm
Quoting strat
{quote} Worker is bouncing from this level today forming a hammer. Dragonfly doji not a Hammer
Thanks for that clarification Strat.

Regards
Terry
  • #5,952
  • Jul 23, 2018 7:26pm Jul 23, 2018 7:26pm
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} Thanks for that clarification Strat. Regards Terry
After thinking about it, wouldn't that candle be a long legged doji and not a dragonfly doji. Not sure that there is a significant difference between the two though.
  • #5,953
  • Jul 23, 2018 7:29pm Jul 23, 2018 7:29pm
Quoting Victoria2017
{quote} Hi Rufus, Thank you for your long reply. I really appreciate it. I like your words 'trading is more about the journey of self discovery'. We are formed by what we studied, what we did and what we experienced. I believe that it is not about what has happened, it is about how you react what has happened. Your time theory makes me think. Do you mind me to ask what time frame do you trade in general? Can you please let me know the name of your favorite psychological book? If it is your favorite book, I think it is worth me to read. The boots,,,,,...

Your time theory makes me think. Do you mind me to ask what time frame do you trade in general?

Time frame depends on my work schedule. Right now very busy catching up with work so main time frame is Daily. When work gets to an even pace will add in 4 hr.

I fit in 5m charts in the morning if my mornings are not taken up with business stuff.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #5,954
  • Jul 23, 2018 7:52pm Jul 23, 2018 7:52pm
Quoting Victoria2017
{quote} Hi Rufus, Thank you for your long reply. I really appreciate it. I like your words 'trading is more about the journey of self discovery'. We are formed by what we studied, what we did and what we experienced. I believe that it is not about what has happened, it is about how you react what has happened. Your time theory makes me think. Do you mind me to ask what time frame do you trade in general? Can you please let me know the name of your favorite psychological book? If it is your favorite book, I think it is worth me to read. The boots,,,,,...

Forgot the books.

There have been many. Of course there is the standard many read, Trading In The Zone or as Strat call TITZ.... This one is kina wordy to me and at times hard for me toread. I have the Audio version of it as well and when I'm on a long road trip will listen to it at times.

The Art of The Trade -- one of my favorites but hard to find at times.

What I learned Losing A Million Dollars-- been awhile since I read this one but quite an eye opener

Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator-- About Jessie Livermore

Ego is The Enemy

The Obstacle Is The Way

Last two are by the same author. These are not trading related but very good.

There are many more on my shelves. I guess if anyone wants more titles let me know.

By the way. If you are an introvert (I'm an INTJ) the book "Quiet" may be of big help. You can take a free online Myers Brigs personality test to find out...
http://www.humanmetrics.com/cgi-win/jtypes2.asp

If traders who are introverted try to function as an extrovert it can become very confusing. As I said in my previous post Trading became more of a journey of self discovery. Asa matter of fact, not only am I an INTJ, extremely introverted, I'm also mildly dyslexic. If I or my teachers in grade school years ago knew this, life would have been much easier. These are all things I found out about myself well after college and mostly because of trading.

I can go on about this stuff for pages. Very interesting to me. Again, if anyone wants more information on the thing presented here let me know.

Another thing, then I will quit this ramble. There are a lot of dyslexics out there who don't know that they are dyslexic. Understanding how dyslexics think will also help with trading.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #5,955
  • Jul 23, 2018 8:02pm Jul 23, 2018 8:02pm
Quoting strat
USDJPY {quote} You have got comments from Rufus but I'm disappointed you didn't get anymore. I held off commenting awaiting others but since they have no interest here goes: Big Boss Significant for me is that the June BUEB candle closed above the 20MA Pete - there is no ""June BUEB"" - you need to go back and study candlesticks. You missed the most important PRICE ACTION on the Big Boss - PRICE is REJECTED from RESISTANCE! Final analysis - short term trend is up. short term trend WAS up - PRICE will likely go sideways Boss On the Boss i am focusing...

Forget DSRI - I just made it up to have fun with and sucker in the Indicator crowd! As soon as I made reference to it I was swamped with requests for it. I got so many requests that I cobbled up and pasted some rubbish code only for the Indicator Suckers to tell me it didn't work and would I check it and re-post exactly as I used it. Just shows you the mentality and trading intelligence level of those in Indicator Land!

Well Strat. When I was answering JCMPetes post I was scratching my head on that one. Googled it even. "What the hell is DSRI" was running through my head.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #5,956
  • Jul 23, 2018 8:06pm Jul 23, 2018 8:06pm
Quoting JCMPete
{quote} Hi Rufus Thank you for your comments. I will get the Strat Shadow onto my charts as suggested. FXCM does have MT4 so I will look at using that if necessary. Fibs - noted. i will look up the references on weekly control candles. I missed the new candle that is in play. Thank you for pointing that out along with your other comments. I really appreciate it. Regards Pete
Keep posting charts no matter what. We can quickly perfect our craft when we get instruction from experience. Strat has been doing this for a long time and has forgotten more than most of us know.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #5,957
  • Jul 24, 2018 2:23am Jul 24, 2018 2:23am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} To follow-up on Samsonwebdes' post, I would think twice about taking that short position... {image}
Hi Darko,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. It goes down today but I think your thought is very much necessary.
Those three circled areas were Price Action areas before. When price reached that level, the buyers stepped in.
That is something I need to consider when I plan my trade.
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,958
  • Jul 24, 2018 2:33am Jul 24, 2018 2:33am
My trade today: Short 2 positions EUR/USD @ 1.6862 @ Sydney Australia time @ 13:23
Reason to trade:
All three time frames are down trend.
Big Boss (Daily): last candle stick is BEEB.
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Boss (4H): two dojis, one of them can be treated as Shooting Star.
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Worker (1H): last candle stick is BEOB
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Trade plan:
TL @1.17022, TP 1 @1.1668, and move the TL of another position to break even. TP 2 @1.6848
EDIT 1: TL @1.17002 not @1.17022
Result:
Existed position 1 on the TP1, then position 2 was stopped out on the break even price.

Any comments?
Thanks.
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,959
  • Jul 24, 2018 2:38am Jul 24, 2018 2:38am
A special thanks to Samon and Malu, I took your words as consideration when I planned my TL this time.
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,960
  • Jul 24, 2018 2:45am Jul 24, 2018 2:45am
Quoting Victoria2017
My trade today: Short 2 positions EUR/USD @ 1.6862 @ Sydney Australia time @ 13:23 Reason to trade: All three time frames are down trend. Big Boss (Daily): last candle stick is BEEB. {image} Boss (4H): two dojis, one of them can be treated as Shooting Star. {image} Worker (1H): last candle stick is BEOB {image} Trade plan: TL @1.17022, TP 1 @1.1668, and move the TL of another position to break even. TP 2 @1.6848 EDIT 1: TL @1.17002 not @1.17022 Result: Existed position 1 on the TP1, then position 2 was stopped out on the break even price. Any comments?...
Victoria,

You are using the 3 TF strategy, well done.
However, if you look at the Weekly:
- we are in a tight WCC and this pair has not really moved in weeks and has no macro reason to move anytime soon
- if it were to move, given that we are at support, I would rather look for long opportunities

PS: GBPUSD did not really go down, did it?
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