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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #5,921
  • Jul 22, 2018 12:11pm Jul 22, 2018 12:11pm
Quoting strat
PASR {quote} Good for you Pete but.............your brain can only take in so much at a time so you have to practice and master what you have learned BEFORE moving on to the next topic. I suggest you start posting charts of your understanding of where you are at now with PASR. There are some really helpful people on here who have been where you are at now so will help you get over any hurdles you have.
Hi Strat and Company

Thank you for the invitation to post. Herewith my UsdJpy charts and analysis...

BigBoss:

Based on my chart and available data the Big Boss is in a long term downtrend / channel from 1998 ranging from 145ish to a low of 75ish. (Just rounding the numbers).

 

  1. From the LL in February 2012 UsdJpy is in a uptrend with the LH reached in June 2015 at the long term down TL at 125ish where the trend line was tested until December 2015 before it started retracing its tracks with a BEEB, a hanging man in January 2016 and then a huge BEEB in February establish the medium term down trend.
  2. Price bounced back up from SR and 50 Fib at 100ish (Round number), formed a LH, turned down and then bounced back up at 38fib and SR at 105ish (Round number again and PA hammer candle). The April BUEB confirmed the HL at this point and the short term uptrend commenced.
  3. Price has been consolidating in a triangle indicated by the demand and supply DSRI's on my chart.
  4. Significant for me is that the June BUEB candle closed above the 20MA and supply DSRI.
  5. I am watching the forming of the July candle with interest as July is 2 thirds gone and so far the price in July is above the 20 and the the Demand DSRI and seems so far to be respecting the supply DSRI.

Final analysis - short term trend is up.

Boss:
On the Boss i am focussing my analysis on the very short term trend up from 105ish (Big Boss SR and 38 Fib level)

 

  1. Price is above the refined Demand and Supply DSRI lines as well as the short term TL.
  2. Price is also above the 20 and 50 MA although the the MA's are flat indicative of the sideways range bound movement of price between 105ish and 115ish. Price was progressively constrained in a tighter triangle formation.
  3. In my mind there is a confluence of trendlines and indicators just above the 110 level to 111 level. All seems to be pointing to a breakout from this zone.
  4. Price has closed outside the weekly control candle from May with a BUEB the week before and with an IB last week.

Final analysis - short term trend is up.

Worker:
Price is making progressive HH and HL from the 105ish low.

 

  1. Price is sitting on the 20MA just above the confluence of Tl's and SR at 111ish after breaking out from the weekly control candle zone and then dropping back down seeming to re test this level.

Final analysis - short term trend is up.

Conclusion:

I will be watching to see If the 111ish level holds out and if it does I will be looking for favorable PA to go long to the next SR level of 114ish.

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  • #5,922
  • Jul 22, 2018 12:14pm Jul 22, 2018 12:14pm
PASR

Quoting Victoria2017
In my short Forex learning journey, I read more than 20 books and tried most of the methods I learned from those books. I reach the conclusion that the PRICE and VOLUME are the most important elements for Forex. Of course, TIME is most powerful for everything in our world philosophically. 'Volume' is not easy for Forex, 'time' is something mysterious for human. So I am thinking about how can I get a theory which use PRICE to trade. Here I am. I treat leaning PASR as a serious business. For this business, I have done my research to know this is a...
Hi Victoria,

I am not sure if it is OK to post this.

As a student of PASR, you can post anything on here that YOU are comfortable with. We all learn in different ways and at different speeds so post what YOU will gain the maximum benefit from.

I reach the conclusion that the PRICE and VOLUME are the most important elements for Forex.

Volume was very important to me when I traded Futures and Commodities but in Forex, it is about as much use as a crack in a glass eye! The reason being is that Forex is not traded through one central exchange so there is no record anywhere of world-wide Forex volume. The volume you see on your charts is Tick Volume at YOUR broker - that's all.

I did 3 trades in M5 time frame last week. All were failed.
1. Took profit before first resistance line. My fear.
2. Jumped into the trade early so stopped out. My impatience and lack of study for PASR.
3. Didn't look at Big Boss and the support line in the first place so stopped out. My lack of practice for PASR.

Maybe these 3 trades were too early in your learning for you and especially in your Trading Psychology.

You should always post your trades so that we can provide constructive comments to help you and also because others SEE what you can't

Rather than trading at where you are in YOUR learning, spend time reviewing PASR on as many charts as you can. Experience is gained from spending thousands of hours studying thousands of charts. There is no short cut to this. Those that tried have given up and run off to Indicator Land where they donate most of their accounts to us.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,923
  • Jul 22, 2018 12:16pm Jul 22, 2018 12:16pm
GBPAUD

Quoting HappyTrend
There is another Chart, Sell after candle close bellow support. Your Initial Stoploss is in 1? and When you decide to put that BreakEven in that level? {image}
When you decide to put that BreakEven in that level?

When around 50% of the Boss Swing is complete
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,924
  • Jul 22, 2018 12:31pm Jul 22, 2018 12:31pm
Quoting Victoria2017
In my short Forex learning journey, I read more than 20 books and tried most of the methods I learned from those books. I reach the conclusion that the PRICE and VOLUME are the most important elements for Forex. Of course, TIME is most powerful for everything in our world philosophically. 'Volume' is not easy for Forex, 'time' is something mysterious for human. So I am thinking about how can I get a theory which use PRICE to trade. Here I am. I treat leaning PASR as a serious business. For this business, I have done my research to know this is a...
Hi Victoria

First, to answer your question from about a week ago about my boots, they are called Packers. Kind of a lace up cowboy boot. I would guess out in the rural areas of Australia they have somethin similar. They actually lace up easily.

I read more than 20 books and tried most of the methods I learned from those books

I too have read a lot of books, shelves are full of them. Now I read more about psychology. There are some very good ones on psychology and trading out there, my favorite ones are seldom mentioned here on FF.

I reach the conclusion that the PRICE and VOLUME are the most important elements for Forex

I just want to make sure you realize that the volume you are given on your chart is only the volume from your broker. True volume in the Fx market doesn't exist like you would have in the Stock Markets.

'Volume' is not easy for Forex, 'time' is something mysterious for human

Time is something that has always intrigued me when it comes to trading. I figure that the most important closings on candles are the Daily, weekly, and monthly close. Of these three I don't know if there is any one more important. Each represents the closing of something significant. Here on MT4 we have 1m, 5m, 15m, 1hr, and 4hr charts. The division of time is logical. But what if we had 6 minute charts, or 90 minute charts? The look of a chart can be vastly different. The market doesn't close at the end of a 5m candle like it does on a weekly one. So what my look like a standard looking candle on a 5m chart may be an engulfing one on a 6m chart. I'm not trying to over complicate things here so bear with me. I think this gets into part of what Strat talks about when he says "see the story behind the candles".
Another thing I thought about with time and trading...The weekly candle is the only candle that when it ends the market closes on a weekly basis. I tend to think then that the weekly candle is the most important closing to show what the big players are doing. Which is also why trading boss swings on the daily chart can be very lucrative. I could go on. Spent a lot of time thinking about time...

set up my goal step

Awesome to set goals. But unlike what all the books tell you, I don't believe time constraints should be included. Time on the path of learning is not very predictable. We never know what psychological things will come along. To me trading has been more of a journey of self discovery then one of a "Method" of trading. So as each obstacle on "The Path" is encountered it is handled.

Posting my plan in a public thread, I will feel ashamed if I don't do it

Posting your plan is not required. If it helps though, super. One thing you will find is that your plan will evolve a lot as you progress as a trader.

My lack of practice for PASR

You are doing the right thing. Practice. Also because you are staying involved and engaged in the thread it can be the right practice.

Hopefully this was some of what you are looking for. I always appreciate your posts as they make me put my thinking cap on to put to words my thoughts and actions when it comes to trading.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #5,925
  • Jul 22, 2018 1:45pm Jul 22, 2018 1:45pm
PASR

Quoting Bolan
Strat I have a question, in your script you have mention that indicators are not necessary or you should learn PASR without indicators. Now I am little bit confused , should I now integrate the Strat Shadows or should I first learn PASR without indicators? Ps: thanks for your knowledge you have already improved my trading from strict losses to break even to small returns thank you !
I do not consider the Strat Shadow as an indicator in the sense that it provides a trading signal. It is just one of the many tools of PASR which provides us with far more information than any indicator can.

If you are following The Path, you should only add it when it is introduced in there. Do not be like the rest of the lurkers on here who copy/add it without first reading and understanding PASR and what it's potential is.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,926
  • Jul 22, 2018 4:58pm Jul 22, 2018 4:58pm
Quoting JCMPete
{quote} Hi Strat and Company Thank you for the invitation to post. Herewith my UsdJpy charts and analysis... BigBoss: Based on my chart and available data the Big Boss is in a long term downtrend / channel from 1998 ranging from 145ish to a low of 75ish. (Just rounding the numbers). From the LL in February 2012 UsdJpy is in a uptrend with the LH reached in June 2015 at the long term down TL at 125ish where the trend line was tested until December 2015 before it started retracing its tracks with a BEEB, a hanging man in January 2016 and then a huge...

Hi JCM Pete. Great to see you posting and reading through the threads.

I'm not sure what DSRI is so forgive me there.

It looks like FXCM charting. Is there any way to get the Strat Shadow on your charts. I don't remember if FXCM gives you the option of using a moving average ribbon. If so you should be able to get it. If not maybe open a demo account that has MT4. When FXCM was in this country they had both platforms available, not sure about your country. Anyway, if you get the Strat Shadow running it will help you visually in seeing what price is doing. To me the SS shows the market breathing.

I used to use fibs a lot on my charts. Now they are left off. At times I will throw one on only to confirm something PASR is showing me. Even then PASR is still most important.

You also may not have found the section in the threads about Weekly Control candles. Understanding them has helped in my quest on the path. USDJPY has a new WCC in play.

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I know time is relative to how you see things... I like 4hr charts to understand the daily.

For me right now the short term is trending down with two strong days of movement. Your idea of entry at 111 may be good. I think I will be looking a tad lower around 110.30 the bottom of the WCC if there is PASR to enter. The first target area would be about the top of the WCC. but use PASR to exit.

Keep up the posting and get a Strat Shadow running on something.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #5,927
  • Jul 23, 2018 2:15am Jul 23, 2018 2:15am
Trade for today:
GBP/USD, 2 short positions @ 1.31386 @ 17:05 Sydney, Australia time.
Reason to trade:
Big Boss and Boss are in harmony, worker has retracement, Fib between 50% and 68%, failed to test up to 68%,
Trade plan:
TL 1.3152, first TP 1.3117 to exit 1 position then move TL of another position to break even. The second exit 1.3084.
Big Boss (4H):
Boss (1H):
Worker (M15):
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,928
  • Jul 23, 2018 2:20am Jul 23, 2018 2:20am
Big Boss (4H):
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Boss (1H):
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Worker (M15):
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We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,929
  • Jul 23, 2018 2:38am Jul 23, 2018 2:38am
Stopped out @ 17:34 Sydney Australia time.
Half hour lifespan.
Any comments?
Time to take a break and then come back to analyse my failed trade.
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,930
  • Jul 23, 2018 3:42am Jul 23, 2018 3:42am
Apologies everyone, I'm usually a bit quicker getting back but I had some technical difficulties over the weekend with multiple browsers not displaying forexfactory correctly.

Quoting Victoria2017
{quote} Thanks Rob, I hope you have some peace by not trading. By the way, where are you in Australia? I am in Perth.
I'm based in Victoria.
Quoting strat
PASR {quote} This month has been a hard one to trade for me, with one week left I'm on track to eck out a very modest profit with a bunch of break even trades and a couple of losers. Rub, you really have to stop beating yourself up. The summer months when there is low volume and volatility are difficult to trade for everyone. The fact that you are in profit shows how well you are doing in these times. My immoderate aim is to be profitable for 3 months in a row, as a sign that I'm getting it. You ARE ""getting it"", Rub. You only have to look at...
Thanks strat, I've always been very hard on myself and it's a hard habit to break. Been getting better over the years, but it's still there. Funny really, not many people realize I am something of a perfectionist like that, way to laid back in real life!

Quoting Victoria2017
Stopped out @ 17:34 Sydney Australia time. Half hour lifespan. Any comments? Time to take a break and then come back to analyse my failed trade.
Victoria, the London open is currently at 1700 our time. It's worth staying out for the first hour, as it's still finding direction if you're trading lower time frames. I suggest ignoring it for an hour, then seeing what you can see after that, although Darko and other 5minute experts can probably help more.
  • #5,931
  • Edited 4:08am Jul 23, 2018 3:51am | Edited 4:08am
Quoting Victoria2017
Stopped out @ 17:34 Sydney Australia time. Half hour lifespan. Any comments? Time to take a break and then come back to analyse my failed trade.
Hi Victoria,

Your stop I think was probably way too tight on that trade. If you are trading a swing you need to let the trade breathe. One thing I've learned the hard way is to give price room to breathe. Some people trade tight stops and just keep getting back in after a stop out.
Personally I prefer to get in small and build with a big stop so the big boys wild moves and stop runs don't catch me out.

Look at price action now you are out. BEEB forming and about to hopefully close below the 200MA on the H1. If it does It'll be on my radar for a short entry.
Would like to see a close below the recent support though before I get in.

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Tight stops will be the death of you. Scale in small and build your position with a wide stop.

EDIT:
We got the close below support on the H1. Will be entering on a continuation of the move down gradually.
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Study enough and it all starts looking like the Matrix...
  • #5,932
  • Jul 23, 2018 5:42am Jul 23, 2018 5:42am
Quoting samsonwebdes
{quote} Tight stops will be the death of you. Scale in small and build your position with a wide stop. {image}
Hi Victoria, I agree with Samson. In the past I also had the problem that I was stopped out too early and after that price went in my direction.
Now I am trying to trade the swings of the next higher time frame. So for H1 I would use H4 swings , for D1 I would use W1 swings to set my stopp loss levels.
  • #5,933
  • Jul 23, 2018 6:17am Jul 23, 2018 6:17am
Quoting strat
GBPAUD {quote} When you decide to put that BreakEven in that level? When around 50% of the Boss Swing is complete
Hi Strat,
Thanks for the reply.
I am going to use historical data to do more practice.
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,934
  • Jul 23, 2018 6:41am Jul 23, 2018 6:41am
Quoting Rufus
{quote} Hi Victoria First, to answer your question from about a week ago about my boots, they are called Packers. Kind of a lace up cowboy boot. I would guess out in the rural areas of Australia they have somethin similar. They actually lace up easily. I read more than 20 books and tried most of the methods I learned from those books I too have read a lot of books, shelves are full of them. Now I read more about psychology. There are some very good ones on psychology and trading out there, my favorite ones are seldom mentioned here on FF. I reach...
Hi Rufus,
Thank you for your long reply. I really appreciate it.
I like your words 'trading is more about the journey of self discovery'. We are formed by what we studied, what we did and what we experienced.
I believe that it is not about what has happened, it is about how you react what has happened.
Your time theory makes me think. Do you mind me to ask what time frame do you trade in general?
Can you please let me know the name of your favorite psychological book? If it is your favorite book, I think it is worth me to read.
The boots,,,,, that's good it is easy to tie. I am a bit lazy. With sports shoes, I just make laces be very loose so I don't need to tie it when I wear it.
Welcome back, hope the trip gives you more reason to trade.
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,935
  • Jul 23, 2018 6:45am Jul 23, 2018 6:45am
Quoting Rub
Apologies everyone, I'm usually a bit quicker getting back but I had some technical difficulties over the weekend with multiple browsers not displaying forexfactory correctly. {quote} I'm based in Victoria. {quote} Thanks strat, I've always been very hard on myself and it's a hard habit to break. Been getting better over the years, but it's still there. Funny really, not many people realize I am something of a perfectionist like that, way to laid back in real life! {quote} Victoria, the London open is currently at 1700 our time. It's worth staying...
Hi Rub,
Thanks for the first hour tips. I will take close look.
I just changed my routine to trade London session. Hopefully I will be more familiar with it after a while.
Will search Darko's posts and learn more from it.
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,936
  • Jul 23, 2018 6:49am Jul 23, 2018 6:49am
Quoting samsonwebdes
{quote} Hi Victoria, Your stop I think was probably way too tight on that trade. If you are trading a swing you need to let the trade breathe. One thing I've learned the hard way is to give price room to breathe. Some people trade tight stops and just keep getting back in after a stop out. Personally I prefer to get in small and build with a big stop so the big boys wild moves and stop runs don't catch me out. Look at price action now you are out. BEEB forming and about to hopefully close below the 200MA on the H1. If it does It'll be on my radar...
Hi Samson,
Thank you for your valuable comment.
I was stopped out 4 times in the very first week I learned PASR.
Your comment is very very helpful to me.
I have to figure out the stop.
Do you have any suggestion about stop?

Thank you.
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,937
  • Jul 23, 2018 6:53am Jul 23, 2018 6:53am
Quoting Malu
{quote} Hi Victoria, I agree with Samson. In the past I also had the problem that I was stopped out too early and after that price went in my direction. Now I am trying to trade the swings of the next higher time frame. So for H1 I would use H4 swings , for D1 I would use W1 swings to set my stopp loss levels.
Thank you Malu,
That is very helpful.
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,938
  • Jul 23, 2018 7:34am Jul 23, 2018 7:34am
Quoting Victoria2017
{quote} Hi Samson, Thank you for your valuable comment. I was stopped out 4 times in the very first week I learned PASR. Your comment is very very helpful to me. I have to figure out the stop. Do you have any suggestion about stop? Thank you.
Hi Victoria,

How I handle a trade and approach stops may not be right for you but have a read of this post which may help you understand how I approach risk.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post11263487

Personally I like to set an amount I'm happy to lose on a trade and don't just get in once and set a hard stop. If price action starts to look like I was wrong I get out manually and take the loss.
If you find you are getting stopped out a lot and price then moves in your direction, set the stops a bit bigger and enter with a smaller lot size. You can always add on to the trade when price goes your way.
If you are new to trading or new to PASR you are not going to get in perfectly each time. Hell I don't get in perfectly and I've been on the path for many, many months now. I have a long way to go too.

Trade small, let price breathe and see how price reacts and moves around the shadow. You can only do that if you allow price room and don't get stopped out all the time.
Price will consolidate and spike up and down while the big boys are moving it around and you need to allow that space in your trading.
Study enough and it all starts looking like the Matrix...
  • #5,939
  • Jul 23, 2018 8:01am Jul 23, 2018 8:01am
Quoting samsonwebdes
{quote} Hi Victoria, Your stop I think was probably way too tight on that trade. If you are trading a swing you need to let the trade breathe. One thing I've learned the hard way is to give price room to breathe. Some people trade tight stops and just keep getting back in after a stop out. Personally I prefer to get in small and build with a big stop so the big boys wild moves and stop runs don't catch me out. Look at price action now you are out. BEEB forming and about to hopefully close below the 200MA on the H1. If it does It'll be on my radar...
To follow-up on Samsonwebdes' post, I would think twice about taking that short position...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,940
  • Jul 23, 2018 8:44am Jul 23, 2018 8:44am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} To follow-up on Samsonwebdes' post, I would think twice about taking that short position... {image}
If I'd have seen your charts I probably would have thought twice about an entry there but mine tell a different story. US close candles look totally different to your chart and to me look like we're in a consolidation area where I'm expecting price to drop after that big break below the support.

This current H4 candle close for me will be the confirmation of that hopefully with a break and close below 1.31100. If not we'll still be in consolidation but price action looks bearish.
Time will tell.

I have a small entry to test the market in now and then a couple more ready below if I'm correct.

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Study enough and it all starts looking like the Matrix...
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