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EUR/JPY

  • #4,681
  • Jul 17, 2018 11:49pm Jul 17, 2018 11:49pm
oh this pair does get love haha just not a big time poster here.

I like the current weakening of the strong bullish trend. the rounded top is providing solid evidence of a possible move lower. Last week we've jumped the start a little i guess. Now awaiting confirmation prior to entry. my confirmation would be a touch of the green trendline, when this line is close to getting hit, or does get hit but not crossed we have a high probability of a move lower.
That would provide a very good R:R and the possibility to increase position size with the same percentage of risk I feel comfortable to take (2% of my account to ). High probability trading
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  • #4,682
  • Jul 18, 2018 12:11am Jul 18, 2018 12:11am
Perfect H&S on the hourly.

Scenario 1) Price breaks above the circle midpoint to test the magnetic fulcrum. (sounds sexy). Sustained candle closes above the fulcrum would switch my bias back to long to 132.50-133.00. Would then be looking to get long on the back side of the fulcrum.

Scenario 2) Price breaks lower than the circle midpoint and races to H&S completion at 131.10. If so, I would be looking to add shorts on any bounces on the way back to 130

Cheerio and good luck.
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #4,683
  • Jul 18, 2018 1:29am Jul 18, 2018 1:29am
Quoting Expo33
Perfect H&S on the hourly. Scenario 1) Price breaks above the circle midpoint to test the magnetic fulcrum. (sounds sexy). Sustained candle closes above the fulcrum would switch my bias back to long to 132.50-133.00. Would then be looking to get long on the back side of the fulcrum. Scenario 2) Price breaks lower than the circle midpoint and races to H&S completion at 131.10. If so, I would be looking to add shorts on any bounces on the way back to 130 Cheerio and good luck. {image}
As a follow up, I'm now short with a potential price path in yellow. Pure conjecture of course.
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #4,684
  • Jul 18, 2018 5:44am Jul 18, 2018 5:44am
Eur/Jpy after breaking the Trendline showing strong signs of bearishness my trade is already locked in and a small hesitation could take place at 131.05 region. If it breaks through then we have great bear ride
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  • #4,685
  • Jul 18, 2018 7:10am Jul 18, 2018 7:10am
Quoting archuntrader
Eur/Jpy after breaking the Trendline showing strong signs of bearishness my trade is already locked in and a small hesitation could take place at 131.05 region. If it breaks through then we have great bear ride {image}
Here we go..
  • #4,686
  • Jul 18, 2018 7:50am Jul 18, 2018 7:50am
Quoting Expo33
Perfect H&S on the hourly. Scenario 1) Price breaks above the circle midpoint to test the magnetic fulcrum. (sounds sexy). Sustained candle closes above the fulcrum would switch my bias back to long to 132.50-133.00. Would then be looking to get long on the back side of the fulcrum. Scenario 2) Price breaks lower than the circle midpoint and races to H&S completion at 131.10. If so, I would be looking to add shorts on any bounces on the way back to 130 Cheerio and good luck. {image}
Indeed scenario #2 has played out quickly. H&S completes easily as price rips through our circular base line and then stops to the pip on the nearest relevant fractal line. Price as I type is resting right back at the baseline. All positions have been liquidated. Averaged about 50 pips per. It was a good trade and now I'm looking to capitalize on another potential wave down.
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Here's the entry plan.
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #4,687
  • Jul 18, 2018 7:54am Jul 18, 2018 7:54am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Indeed scenario #2 has played out quickly. H&S completes easily as price rips through our circular base line and then stops to the pip on the nearest relevant fractal line. Price as I type is resting right back at the baseline. All positions have been liquidated. Averaged about 50 pips per. {image} Now looking for another opportunity to get back in short, Here's the plan below. {image}
I haven't exactly look at EUR/JPY in great detail, but this fall might not be bearish sentiment. It could just be a pullback for more fuel up. GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY both held their support levels. Won't be surprised if EUR/JPY rallies from here to 133 level.

Just another plausible take, I'm on the sidelines for now.
  • #4,688
  • Edited 1:42am Jul 19, 2018 12:08am | Edited 1:42am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Indeed scenario #2 has played out quickly. H&S completes easily as price rips through our circular base line and then stops to the pip on the nearest relevant fractal line. Price as I type is resting right back at the baseline. All positions have been liquidated. Averaged about 50 pips per. It was a good trade and now I'm looking to capitalize on another potential wave down. {image} Here's the entry plan. {image}
Such a beautiful overall price structure right now.

I've been tracking EJ like a hawk all week. I picked up 50 pips from the "minor" H&S break over night and then set two new shorts on the rebound. Price did indeed rebound and both new shorts were back filled perfectly.

Now, the larger structure shows us the right shoulder of the "major" H&S pattern. As it stands, price is at a cross roads. The initial bounce penetrated just back up thru the bearish fractal wedge and now has settled down and is creeping along the wedge to an area that should contain some inertia.

Scenario 1) Price breaks up thru the magnetic axis (MA) and tries to get back into the bullish fractal wedge. Possible, but would take a lot of energy to break through and close consistently above the MA

Scenario 2) Price just ranges into late morning New York session. I don't think this is plausible. Imho, we are at an inertial reaction zone. I believe Frankfurt/London will pop price 30 pips either way to establish the next line of defense.

Scenario 3) Price will run down to 130.9 thereby completing the "major" H&S pattern. Then potentially retest the MA before another leg down to 130.5 with one last possible leg down to pattern completion @ 129.77

Our stance is scenario 3 and are positioned accordingly.

Here's the updated look. The price harmony is really quite beautiful (geek alert).
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #4,689
  • Jul 20, 2018 4:25am Jul 20, 2018 4:25am
Hello

This is my History of E/J
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  • #4,690
  • Aug 2, 2018 1:10am Aug 2, 2018 1:10am
I am long this now at 130.00, SL at 129.00 and TP 134.50
  • #4,691
  • Aug 8, 2018 3:37am Aug 8, 2018 3:37am
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=768090
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www.sme-fx.com
  • #4,692
  • Aug 9, 2018 8:21am Aug 9, 2018 8:21am
Im short at ~129027 (since yesterday) with a stop above the pivot high (129826)

if we break the level shown on the chart, we can hit the targets in a hurry

if this happens, i will add to my position!

H4
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on a daily basis, the implied target is closer to 124.4 (ish) pending confirmation of a line break
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #4,693
  • Aug 9, 2018 9:18am Aug 9, 2018 9:18am
long now at market price aprox. 128.57
POSTMASTER
  • #4,694
  • Aug 9, 2018 9:31am Aug 9, 2018 9:31am
Quoting theDHT
Im short at ~129027 (since yesterday) with a stop above the pivot high (129826) if we break the level shown on the chart, we can hit the targets in a hurry if this happens, i will add to my position! H4 {image} on a daily basis, the implied target is closer to 124.4 (ish) pending confirmation of a line break
trigger level achieved (128490), pending H1 bar close at/under this level

ideally we'll get a H4 bar close confirming the level
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #4,695
  • Aug 9, 2018 11:10am Aug 9, 2018 11:10am
I am in love with this pair, i will post some trade over the next days, for now i am comfortably in a Short position, which i hedged from a long position after the morning star formation. I thought the highest probability was for the Euro to come out on top this week, mainly driven by technicals, no real data on the calender.

Closed my longs with a loss (SL got hit). But i generally am aggressive when it comes to hedging, what is the level u guys are looking for exiting or scaling down on the current positions.

My TP is at 127.5, i will take 50% off of my position and let the rest run without risk (stop to BE).

  • #4,696
  • Aug 10, 2018 8:33am Aug 10, 2018 8:33am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} trigger level achieved (128490), pending H1 bar close at/under this level ideally we'll get a H4 bar close confirming the level
Trade closed target acquired
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #4,697
  • Aug 10, 2018 11:02am Aug 10, 2018 11:02am
Closed manually Man i did not expect this drop to be so aggressive, but i guess the break in the EURUSD pair send all other Euro pairs into a free-fall. Concerns about Turkey and strong US data were the driver IMO.

Just started a new account, a dream-start good weekend all!
  • #4,698
  • Aug 10, 2018 11:38am Aug 10, 2018 11:38am
Quoting thejerre
Closed manually Man i did not expect this drop to be so aggressive, but i guess the break in the EURUSD pair send all other Euro pairs into a free-fall. Concerns about Turkey and strong US data were the driver IMO. Just started a new account, a dream-start good weekend all!
Keep an eye on the yens... Methinks this pair has further to go
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #4,699
  • Aug 11, 2018 4:30am Aug 11, 2018 4:30am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Keep an eye on the yens... Methinks this pair has further to go
Hey DHT,

I think your thought on this comes from risk aversion? EU is no safe-haven so institutions are going back to the Yen for risk aversion?
Or i am completely mistaking, just an educated guess... At least this aligns with my idea on the Yen currently
  • #4,700
  • Aug 11, 2018 5:19am Aug 11, 2018 5:19am
Quoting thejerre
{quote} Hey DHT, I think your thought on this comes from risk aversion? EU is no safe-haven so institutions are going back to the Yen for risk aversion? Or i am completely mistaking, just an educated guess... At least this aligns with my idea on the Yen currently
yes you are right.

I am watching the JPY futures, and it looks like it wants to break upwards.

last week, the move in EJ was primarily triggered by DXY strength, and i think going forward, it will be a combination of JPY and DXY (tho I dont trust this one too much)

looking at it technically, we can see on this weekly chart that long term trend line is pretty far south... and unlike the week of 5/28 when we had a pinbar/bullish rejection close, this last week, it closed pretty close to the low, which implies that theres more juice in this tank

weekly support sits at 120.5xx as you can see, and therefore i'd be looking to short any retracement on the H4 basis and ride this pair down to that level

as an aside, im not a "scalper", and day trading doesnt make sense to my brain, so i prefer looking at longer term charts (analysis charts are weekly/daily. trading at H4, and execution at H1), and therefore this style may or may not suit your style

fingers crossed

EJ Weekly
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p.s.: this is interesting in the face of the fact that EU is sitting at major monthly support, and yesterday we tested that level and closed under it on a weekly basis. we'll have to see how it closes at month end to make a determination on how quickly this pair can get to our target.
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
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