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EUR/JPY

  • #4,661
  • Jul 12, 2018 9:07am Jul 12, 2018 9:07am
be careful, it;'s still lookingvery bullish to me
  • #4,662
  • Jul 12, 2018 5:30pm Jul 12, 2018 5:30pm
Quoting MorganX
be careful, it;'s still lookingvery bullish to me
Yes it does. I expect a possible surge up to 131.80 and will fill shorts accordingly with SL up at 132.20
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #4,663
  • Jul 12, 2018 5:34pm Jul 12, 2018 5:34pm
I agree. Its bulls. Be careful.
  • #4,664
  • Jul 12, 2018 5:46pm Jul 12, 2018 5:46pm
I am short on it and my feeling, repeat - just a feeling, is that today EUR is going to be hit pretty hard.
  • #4,665
  • Jul 12, 2018 6:34pm Jul 12, 2018 6:34pm
This pair has roasted many shortists over the last week.
  • #4,666
  • Jul 12, 2018 6:53pm Jul 12, 2018 6:53pm
Interesting to note that EJ tends to move in the direction of the DOW and the NIKKEI both of which are up substantially today. And yet EJ has only managed a 30 pip gain? Tenuous world trade scenario with the weekend coming up. Who wants to be holding such a risky asset?

Picking tops is certainly a dangerous game. Scaling in with appropriate lot size with a SL big enough to allow your trade to breathe is essential.

I am scaled in already with more positions up to 131.80. That seems to be a likely area to wash out any weak shorts before any potential cliff dive. Time will tell.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #4,667
  • Jul 13, 2018 12:54am Jul 13, 2018 12:54am
Expo33, tell me please, why exactly 131.80?
  • #4,668
  • Jul 13, 2018 1:20am Jul 13, 2018 1:20am
Quoting pio.zaw
Expo33, tell me please, why exactly 131.80?
There's no exact reason other than it would cause those traders getting short some extra pain.

In the Gartley I posted, the pattern completes at the 1.27 fib extension of leg BC. The 131.80 price is roughly the 1.41 fib extension of BC. I can't confirm this but I have been told by a couple of professional traders that many algo's hone in on the area between these 2 extensions. Whether it's true, I don't know but when I'm trading a harmonic pattern like the Gartley then I know my SLs will be above the 1.41 and/or any significant pivots in the area.

The bigger picture for me is to make sure I give my trades enough room to breath so they have a chance to win. Add to that a proper risk management profile and you will be assured to always be in the game even when you lose.

In this case price has already reversed 50 pips so all of my sell orders above 131.50 have been cancelled.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #4,669
  • Jul 13, 2018 1:48am Jul 13, 2018 1:48am
thanks for response. So u will wait till 131.8 to take shorts again? Or the move started right now and u`ll wait till good price to buy? Yen is still so weak, but its also end of the really good week for bullish traders, so they may close their longs before weekend.
  • #4,670
  • Jul 13, 2018 2:17am Jul 13, 2018 2:17am
Quoting pio.zaw
thanks for response. So u will wait till 131.8 to take shorts again? Or the move started right now and u`ll wait till good price to buy? Yen is still so weak, but its also end of the really good week for bullish traders, so they may close their longs before weekend.
I have already built my short position from 131.10 - 131.51 as seen on the chart. All of my other pending short orders have been cancelled. This is bearish Gartley on the daily time frame. I am looking to hold this for several weeks or more. Not considering any longs.

Now I will let this trade do what it is going to do for now but will micro manage my SLs and TPs as things unfold.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ.png Size: 70 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #4,671
  • Jul 13, 2018 2:29am Jul 13, 2018 2:29am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} I have already built my short position from 131.10 - 131.51 as seen on the chart. All of my other pending short orders have been cancelled. This is bearish Gartley on the daily time frame. I am looking to hold this for several weeks or more. Not considering any longs. Now I will let this trade do what it is going to do for now but will micro manage my SLs and TPs as things unfold. {image}
hai n thanks mate
i also take short at your point 131.50
just for a cup of coffee...
  • #4,672
  • Jul 13, 2018 2:44am Jul 13, 2018 2:44am
Quoting akim0895
{quote} hai n thanks mate i also take short at your point 131.50
You're welcome and good luck
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #4,673
  • Jul 13, 2018 2:54am Jul 13, 2018 2:54am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} I have already built my short position from 131.10 - 131.51 as seen on the chart. All of my other pending short orders have been cancelled. This is bearish Gartley on the daily time frame. I am looking to hold this for several weeks or more. Not considering any longs. Now I will let this trade do what it is going to do for now but will micro manage my SLs and TPs as things unfold. {image}
Nice work!
  • #4,674
  • Jul 13, 2018 6:38am Jul 13, 2018 6:38am
short from 131.303 and currently considering taking another position if support turns into resistance at 131.1xx area.

Intention is to keep this trade open untill 128.5, long term trade. Increase size from 131.1 till 130.5 and let the trade run from there.

But we are still at risk of invalidation of the bearish move,

I do like the technical aspect of this trade - it's pretty simple, rounded top, shorter bodies on the hourly shows exhaustion of the bulls.
Nice move down, some breathing room the last hours, another drop lower towards the close of the NY trading session is what i am aiming for to close the week.
  • #4,675
  • Jul 13, 2018 10:33am Jul 13, 2018 10:33am
scalping a short here 131.216 for 30 pips
or till session ending
  • #4,676
  • Jul 13, 2018 11:14pm Jul 13, 2018 11:14pm
Closed out on BE, moved my SL to BE when 131.1 resistance did not hold.
The trade is still in place but i didn't want to carry risk over the weekend, probably taking another shot on monday,

how are u guys managing these shorts?


For me risk management is my key to success (and my pitfall in the beginning haha!!) that's why i exited this trade
  • #4,677
  • Jul 14, 2018 11:10am Jul 14, 2018 11:10am
I fell asleep, very stressful day friday
so 8 pips under not critical
Yen futures are heading south, maybe 133.2x for E/J
  • #4,678
  • Jul 14, 2018 11:19am Jul 14, 2018 11:19am
Quoting Karpa
I fell asleep, very stressful day friday so 8 pips under not critical Yen futures are heading south, maybe 133.2x for E/J
I was up big shorting this pair on Friday, closed before NY Open, shorted again just before NY Open, NY session screwed me, returned almost all my profits.
  • #4,679
  • Jul 17, 2018 6:11am Jul 17, 2018 6:11am
If this stays above 131.80, we might see 133 real soon.
  • #4,680
  • Jul 17, 2018 9:21am Jul 17, 2018 9:21am
It's a shame this pair gets no love.
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