EURUSD

Welcome back , wish it will help people in better understanding & analysing the market . Best wishes. fontu

I wish you the same

Time for a video...

The pair is trading almost flat around 1.1685 level, well within the range between 1.1610 to 1.1687. Break out is needed to show any directional strength.

That's the reason the breakout would be explosive. Watch out

usdindex
tp hit +60 pip
(signal 2018/07/13 )

so watching how reacts at 1.1711, h4 candle close above & hold to test 1.1757 ok/ fail to test the bottom again , breaks there & weekly close above likely test 1.1850 top ,a tough job to do . anyway to me spike up whatever magnitude should be short lived . one /2 wks duration. so LO try test or fail below 1.1665 signal to 1.1630 .take care, fontu

News: Eurozone Trade Balance
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

Actual: 16.7B
Forecast: 14.2B

Impact on: EUR currency
Impact time: July 16, 3:00 PM (UTC+6)

Source: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

FX markets were quiet overnight in which most majors remained near Friday’s close and the USD index consolidated after it failed to hold on to the 95.00 level last week. This kept EUR/USD sideways at the 1.1600 handle to provide some early respite from last week’s tumultuous price swings.

Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 BST:
EUR/USD: 1.1600 (0.696 BLN), 1.1670-75 (1.2 BLN) and 1.1700 (0.728 BLN).

Renewed confidence on my long position @ 1.1555 with the targets, first target @ 1.1852 and second target @ 1.2000.

USDCHF
Technical Analysis (BUY)
(2018/07/16)

bought Eur @ 1.1702. waiting for the break above 1.1725 for the target 1.1750

Adjustments done now SL @ BE plus 5 pips

I think a certain degree of optimism is quite healthy. And for that reason it may well be right that the market has not descended into a panic in view of the looming trade war between the US and the rest of the world – despite many experts warning about the economic effects. In particular the stable US stock market is astonishing against this background. The fact that investors are remaining so cool might also be due to the fact that the US central bank has so far not seemed more concerned. Fed chair Jay Powell pointed out recently that the trade conflict constituted a risk, but otherwise he judged the US economy to be in an overall very positive state. It is questionable how much longer the top central banker will be able to and will want to remain so reserved in view of increasing tensions. Against this background market participants are likely to follow his semi-annual testimony in front of the US Senate with particular interest today. There is no doubt after all that the Senators will grill him with questions on the matter.

The market is likely to be mainly interested in how the Fed would react if the trade conflict deteriorates: with aggressive rate hikes due to the inflationary effect of the import tariffs or with a pause in the hiking cycle due to the growth dampening effect. To be honest I think it would make little difference to risk perception initially. In either case the latter would rise, either for fear of a more restrictive US monetary policy or due to the prospect of weaker US growth and thus a global downturn. As a result I would expect that the US dollar would initially appreciate as the result of a flight into safe havens, with it probably benefitting even more in case of aggressive rate hikes.

However, will Powell really give a more detailed view on the Fed’s reaction to a trade war today? I would not bet on it. Judging by his public speeches so far Powell assesses the state of the US economy mainly based on facts and hard data, whereas he does not like to give forecasts. As a result the market would have no choice but to forecast the course of US monetary policy solely based on how the economy and inflation actually develop. That would mean though that the market might take a while to fully price in the effects of the trade war. I would therefore not expect major fluctuations in the exchange rates short term.

In FX markets, the USD index was lacklustre overnight but consolidated around the 95.50 level, while EUR/USD saw mild gains after support held at 1.1700.

Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 BST:
EUR/USD: None of significance nearby price action.

Looking good for my long position @ 1.1555 with the targets, first target @ 1.1852 and second target @ 1.2000.

the pair has breached the symmetrical triangle and is presently facing resistance at 1.17411 level. I think it will move beyond this resistance level to target 1.17600 level.

eurusd
+25 pip
(exit now plz)
(signal 2018/07/14 )

Analysis: price is ranging right now, its better to stay away from market until price hit one of the lower or upper band level & start a strong trend.
Current trend: Market is ranging

upper band level: 1.1738
lower band level: 1.1663

Time: July 17, 8:38 PM (UTC+6)

the probable spike got resistance , waiting bo (breaks & held)at 1.1688 for 1.1640/1600 or down play before further try . time still there next for the spike , the last of the last try, even price above 1.1688 or 1673/60.good for me as not joined the bull yet. short at any top .Take care , fontu

Long term analysis: price has down trend for long term unless it cross resistance levels.

resistance level 1: 1.1789
resistance level 2: 1.1853

Time: July 17, 8:54 PM (UTC+6)