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Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

  • #12,321
  • Jul 15, 2018 8:05am Jul 15, 2018 8:05am
Quoting squawk
For fellow Amigo Ben Deutsch and German short 2Y be surprised if we don't find a bottom her in 2 year and Deutsch and Commerz. {image}
I'm watching it. Tried the bat but it broke down. It's returned to the first 382 with a wick but can't hold above the bat level even on D1. Now there's another 1.618 leading it down to the alt level where so many good things converge, so from purely the chart perspective I still very much like that 7.5 ish zone. But also I daresay that a lurch down from here would crush the souls of some knife catching newbies which also strikes me as a prerequisite for such a narrative as the great DB phoenix trade.
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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #12,322
  • Jul 15, 2018 11:38am Jul 15, 2018 11:38am
Quoting Mr. Scott
some AU think Squawk was looking last week.....think chart is around here but often easier to just post update {image}
Ahhhhhhhhhhh!! Good to come home and see the kids playing and coloring again!!!

Inserted Video




Enjoy, have fun, trade your plan, make a great day, do your own due diligence and may we all make bank! Game changing Bank!! The kind of Bank that makes you just Think and Grow!!
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #12,323
  • Jul 15, 2018 11:42am Jul 15, 2018 11:42am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Commerz and Deutsche would make a champion German bank. Its derivatives book is huge could you imagine the global web of destruction that would have for the financial system. I think the challenge is with such a large derivatives exposure can they downsize the bank with out a large disruption in liquidity. I don't see you as a bragger Scott. I new what you did anyway and that you had your CFA... I have my (CTA) but that just makes me a qualified salesman.
I got a BS degree!! qualifies me to sniff it out!!
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #12,324
  • Jul 15, 2018 11:30pm Jul 15, 2018 11:30pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
some AU think Squawk was looking last week.....think chart is around here but often easier to just post update {image}
The trade I've been waiting for if it happens is the 75.5 setup area.
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  • #12,325
  • Jul 16, 2018 12:37am Jul 16, 2018 12:37am
Quoting squawk
(BBSW)Australian Bank Bill Swap rate and OIS spread have widened substantially with the tariff war going on at the moment. Credit risk tightening in Australia?? {image}
Australian Banks getting squeezed further by Rising pressure on Bank Swap rates and lowering deposits. I imagine All banks will be raising lending rates outside any RBA increase making complicated for RBA to increase rates anytime soon.

You would have to think lower consumer numbers will hit Australis GDP figure if rates increase when house prices are falling.

Spread on US 2 Year and the NZD AUD 2 year getting long.
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  • #12,326
  • Jul 16, 2018 1:19am Jul 16, 2018 1:19am
Not on subject but very cool.

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  • #12,327
  • Jul 16, 2018 1:34am Jul 16, 2018 1:34am
Quoting squawk
Not on subject but very cool. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMZ2vfIoA9k
Crazy stuff. The future accelerating towards us. Hyperloop and steaks for the Morlocks and virtual reality pod life for the Eloi. I'm all for it.
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #12,328
  • Jul 16, 2018 2:16am Jul 16, 2018 2:16am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} Crazy stuff. The future accelerating towards us. Hyperloop and steaks for the Morlocks and virtual reality pod life for the Eloi. I'm all for it.
Me to. Some technology advances are practical and completely worthwhile, others not so. This is one of those great advances.
  • #12,329
  • Jul 16, 2018 4:29am Jul 16, 2018 4:29am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Commerz and Deutsche would make a champion German bank. Its derivatives book is huge could you imagine the global web of destruction that would have for the financial system. I think the challenge is with such a large derivatives exposure can they downsize the bank with out a large disruption in liquidity. I don't see you as a bragger Scott. I new what you did anyway and that you had your CFA... I have my (CTA) but that just makes me a qualified salesman.
Deutsche shareholders be like Yeah this morning.

Bloomberg

Deutsche Bank AG jumped after saying it expects to report net income of about 400 million ($468 million) euros for the second quarter. That compares with a consensus estimate of 159 million euros, the company said.
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  • #12,330
  • Jul 16, 2018 4:38am Jul 16, 2018 4:38am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Deutsche shareholders be like Yeah this morning. Bloomberg Deutsche Bank AG jumped after saying it expects to report net income of about 400 million ($468 million) euros for the second quarter. That compares with a consensus estimate of 159 million euros, the company said. {image}
Very nice move. Good luck amigoI hope it runs all the way for you.
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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #12,331
  • Jul 16, 2018 4:44am Jul 16, 2018 4:44am
I got Herpes ! Massive weekend i had.
  • #12,332
  • Jul 16, 2018 4:49am Jul 16, 2018 4:49am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} Very nice move. Good luck amigoI hope it runs all the way for you. {image}
Thanks Amigo but a long way for that but gives some shorter term hope into the bank.
  • #12,333
  • Jul 16, 2018 4:50am Jul 16, 2018 4:50am
Quoting squawk
{quote} The trade I've been waiting for if it happens is the 75.5 setup area. {image} {image}
Yes I remember larger one
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #12,334
  • Jul 16, 2018 4:53am Jul 16, 2018 4:53am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Took some out here, move to BE and waiting for possible playout to add in. If this pops and runs lower should help copper. Interesting price action on Shanghai Index yesterday, couldn't break any lower even on the new tariff announcement. At a big location from support. Yuan, Copper and SHANG all tightly correlated at the moment. Shanghai index seems to be front runner. {image} {image} {image}
See if we get a run or its just a retest before higher. Took a little higher than thought. Some taken of stops rolled in to BE.
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  • #12,335
  • Jul 16, 2018 8:57am Jul 16, 2018 8:57am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Deutsche shareholders be like Yeah this morning. Bloomberg Deutsche Bank AG jumped after saying it expects to report net income of about 400 million ($468 million) euros for the second quarter. That compares with a consensus estimate of 159 million euros, the company said. {image}
good to see someone else that bought 514000 - cons.

Quoting deltaone
Eine Idee für die Aktienliebhaber: Kauf Deuba WKN 514000, die gab´s einstellig heute (rein bei 9,80 - darf eigentlich nicht daran denken, dass ich damals die Mitarbeiteraktien direkt nach der Einbuchung ins Depot zu Kursen über 100 verscherbelt habe). Alles Schlechte steckt im Kurs, und es ist die beste Wette darauf, das Italien ein Sturm im Wasserglas ist. Ferner profitieren Bank-Aktien von einer steileren Zinskurve.
one of the best turnaround bets in the banking sector. don´t use tech analysis when buying stocks. book value per share around 30. my dcf analysis shows values far above actual price level. "price is what you pay. value is what you get"

good luck!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #12,336
  • Jul 16, 2018 3:40pm Jul 16, 2018 3:40pm
Crude looking to finalise the move down.
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  • #12,337
  • Jul 16, 2018 3:46pm Jul 16, 2018 3:46pm
GOLD closing in.
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  • #12,338
  • Jul 16, 2018 11:24pm Jul 16, 2018 11:24pm
I've dated NC trades for the last 3 years and NC long term it still looks done but short term interesting setups may be coming again.

Since mid 2017 the 2 year Yields spreads have flipped and closed over 100 basis points.

NZD making a bit of a break higher after the RBNZ published its 'sectoral factor model' measure of core inflation. Annual rate up to 1.7%, and previous quarter revised from 1.5% to 1.6%. But the market reaction looks overcooked.

Would enjoy getting back in at 91 if it can push that far.
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  • #12,339
  • Jul 17, 2018 1:54am Jul 17, 2018 1:54am
Quoting squawk
GOLD closing in. {image} {image}
This is what I have on gold. I favour your alt or lower at this point but you never know, it loves to take it to the edge.
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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #12,340
  • Jul 17, 2018 2:32am Jul 17, 2018 2:32am
This is what I'm looking at in Fresnillo which would also point to lower levels in pm's.
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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
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