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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #77,261
  • Jul 12, 2018 5:40am Jul 12, 2018 5:40am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} What made you think UJ would go down?? what was your reasoning? I have been bullish on USDJPY since late March. I don't trade candles.
It was based on the divergence of Bonds and the UJ.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ+Bonds4.jpg Size: 259 KB
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #77,262
  • Jul 12, 2018 6:14am Jul 12, 2018 6:14am
Quoting salifx
{quote} BS reasoning... This article is trying to justify the awkward move in UJ. even Gold and CHF lost value after the so-called trade war news. safe havens are not safe anymore if the big boys don't want them to be...
I wouldnt say its a "BS" article, he outlines both sides to the current UJ movement and possible future cause for UJ movements.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #77,263
  • Jul 12, 2018 6:27am Jul 12, 2018 6:27am
this pair is very bullish now

don't know what to make of it
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #77,264
  • Jul 12, 2018 6:36am Jul 12, 2018 6:36am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} What made you think UJ would go down?? what was your reasoning? I have been bullish on USDJPY since late March. I don't trade candles.
you done the right thing , thumb up .
Win/Loss Ratio
  • #77,265
  • Jul 12, 2018 6:41am Jul 12, 2018 6:41am
Market sentiment for the yen is still bearish...we have to wait until it hit an extreme and reverse

Only short scalping can be done at resistance but i wouldn't try it
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #77,266
  • Jul 12, 2018 6:47am Jul 12, 2018 6:47am
Quoting CannonScout
{image}
Quoting CannonScout
I haven't delved to deep in this, but I would love to buy up a lot of USD when the time comes. This is very clear range action. A swing below 110 would have a lot of demand. Do not underestimate the potential power of a strong upswing. The USA is on fire!!! And it will be for many years to come. Don't later think 'what if...'
Called it. Literally could retire on this move alone if positioned right. My mouth is starting to water.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #77,267
  • Jul 12, 2018 6:54am Jul 12, 2018 6:54am
who knows ...... it's very bullish for "now" ... but not sure for the future
  • #77,268
  • Jul 12, 2018 7:56am Jul 12, 2018 7:56am
Any who looks at the JXY for consultation before trading YEN pairs?!
Strive for PERFECTION!!
  • #77,269
  • Jul 12, 2018 8:17am Jul 12, 2018 8:17am
Ummm for no one in particular I just noticed USDJPY is still below the close at the end of last year.
  • #77,270
  • Jul 12, 2018 8:19am Jul 12, 2018 8:19am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Nobody wins, especially consumers here and in other countries. It's just "window dressing" for the voters. Meanwhile price move in UJ might be temporary.
In the short/medium term dollar is going to rally. Due to the tariffs the prices will climb, as well the inflation, and this will have an impact in the FED rates path
  • #77,271
  • Jul 12, 2018 8:25am Jul 12, 2018 8:25am
Quoting Manel9530
{quote} In the short/medium term dollar is going to rally. Due to the tariffs the prices will climb, as well the inflation, and this will have an impact in the FED rates path
DXY is already up 2.5%. Because of all the turmoil in the EuroZone and UK with Brexit.

Also commodity currencies getting bashed because of diminished demand expected from China.

But meanwhile USDJPY barely keeps up.
  • #77,272
  • Jul 12, 2018 6:05pm Jul 12, 2018 6:05pm
Hard to tell if general market participation matches FF members positions but if they are anything similar, I think a short squeeze up to 114.5 if not 115.5 or higher is in order. We may see minor pull backs here and there, and I have no time frame on price targets, however every small batch of selling is instantly met with aggressive buy orders.

This type of price action coupled with breaking weekly bearline, influx of long term trendfollowers, and general sentiment leaning bearish, leads me to believe buying will continue, shorts will be squeezed, shorts will cover causing more buying and we are going to have a virtuous circle up until the majority of shorts are cleared.

Happy trading
  • #77,273
  • Jul 12, 2018 6:51pm Jul 12, 2018 6:51pm
Price would reverse in a flash if Pres Stubby Sausage Fingers sends out a tweet saying he is best buds with Xi Jinping again. Always remember traders don't fall in love with a position.
  • #77,274
  • Jul 12, 2018 7:31pm Jul 12, 2018 7:31pm
Can someone try to explain (in shorthand ) what's been going on with this pair over the past few days? I thought it was Dollar strength, but that doesn't really seem to be the case. Seems to be more Yen weakness than anything else. Is this mostly due to "trade wars" fears?... and if so, why is it hitting the Yen so hard?
  • #77,275
  • Jul 12, 2018 8:44pm Jul 12, 2018 8:44pm
Quoting Ratmach
Can someone try to explain (in shorthand ) what's been going on with this pair over the past few days? I thought it was Dollar strength, but that doesn't really seem to be the case. Seems to be more Yen weakness than anything else. Is this mostly due to "trade wars" fears?... and if so, why is it hitting the Yen so hard?
Yen is considered a safe haven, so by right, in times of uncertainty (war, trade wars), it should strengthened and USD/JPY should fall.

I believe most people are scratching their heads at the moment as well, seeing how yen pairs have rallied strongly for the week without any care about the trade wars. It could be that the market has shrugged off fears of trade wars, for whatever weird reason. Some people claim that the Yen is weak because of an earthquake that hit the country, but I beg to differ. Japan has always been prone to natural disasters; I don't think such stuff, while unfortunate, will affect the Yen strength/lack thereof.
  • #77,276
  • Jul 12, 2018 9:52pm Jul 12, 2018 9:52pm
Quoting K.fx
{quote} Yen is considered a safe haven, so by right, in times of uncertainty (war, trade wars), it should strengthened and USD/JPY should fall. I believe most people are scratching their heads at the moment as well, seeing how yen pairs have rallied strongly for the week without any care about the trade wars. It could be that the market has shrugged off fears of trade wars, for whatever weird reason. Some people claim that the Yen is weak because of an earthquake that hit the country, but I beg to differ. Japan has always been prone to natural disasters;...
Thanks, that's what I always thought too (that Yen usually strengthens during "uncertainty"), hence my confusion.
  • #77,277
  • Jul 13, 2018 12:39am Jul 13, 2018 12:39am
Quoting Ratmach
{quote} Thanks, that's what I always thought too (that Yen usually strengthens during "uncertainty"), hence my confusion.
China & Japan have decided to resolve their differences in view of Trump belligerency that is one of the reason the Yen has appreciated.
  • #77,278
  • Jul 13, 2018 12:50am Jul 13, 2018 12:50am
Dollar march will now only stop if trump gets impeached...for that Dems have to win the mid terms......for that Hillary has to quit politics and retire in Haiti with Pelosi as her housemaid(unlikely scenario).Buy UJ.
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #77,279
  • Jul 13, 2018 1:04am Jul 13, 2018 1:04am
Quoting darthPip
Dollar march will now only stop if trump gets impeached...for that Dems have to win the mid terms......for that Hillary has to quit politics and retire in Haiti with Pelosi as her housemaid(unlikely scenario).Buy UJ.
I thought this forum was about USD/JPY. Or is it about usd/usd? It appears the world's third largest economy doesn't get too much of a mention in this place.
  • #77,280
  • Jul 13, 2018 4:04am Jul 13, 2018 4:04am
Will USDJPY break 113?

Make your call.

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