"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"

The 4 Hour Fozzy Method 233 replies
FOZZY Method CROSSES 808 replies
Fozzy Alt... one more approach to the Daily Fozzy Method 40 replies
My Daily Fozzy Trades 337 replies
Monthly Fozzy Method 9 replies
Quoting BeachBumDislikedI did not get a cross on the usd/jpy, not even close. See attached screenshot. The only reason I can think of is that I am using a broker (FXDD) with a platform set to GMT+3 so I get my new daily candle at 5 PM EST.Ignored
Quoting ciscoDislikedI finally figured out why I'm getting false crosses. After looking at BB's chart insert, I compared it to my chart. My chart showed a cross of the USD/JPY, so I entered the trade at the start of a new candle yesterday at 5:00 EST. On BB's chart there was no cross. I couldn't figure it out so I called my broker who is FXsol. They don't use MetaTrader, they've got a new system called Accucharts, but they said it would do the same functions as MT. They're right, it will do the same functions but their "Fozzy" indicator showed a cross whereas MT doesn't. The FXSol chart expert couldn't explain why MT didn't show a cross and Accucharts did. So, I guess that means I'll have to get a MT demo acc't. if I'm going to keep trying the "Fozzy." Damn!Ignored
Quoting smjonesDislikedFozzy is using SBFX for his Demo. It is GMT 0Ignored
Quoting ciscoDislikedI finally figured out why I'm getting false crosses. After looking at BB's chart insert, I compared it to my chart. My chart showed a cross of the USD/JPY, so I entered the trade at the start of a new candle yesterday at 5:00 EST. On BB's chart there was no cross. I couldn't figure it out so I called my broker who is FXsol. They don't use MetaTrader, they've got a new system called Accucharts, but they said it would do the same functions as MT. They're right, it will do the same functions but their "Fozzy" indicator showed a cross whereas MT doesn't. The FXSol chart expert couldn't explain why MT didn't show a cross and Accucharts did. So, I guess that means I'll have to get a MT demo acc't. if I'm going to keep trying the "Fozzy." Damn!Ignored
Quoting paul2DislikedI've noticed that when the cross forms on the far right of "inbetween" the bars, it doesn't usually work out. This is one example of many i've seen. Any comments? I lost a few bucks on this one, but another play turned out just fine. So far I'm really liking fozzy's idea.
http://www.aforexblog.com/wp-content...-afternoon.gif
PS: What are the rules of posting a link to my blog? I've noticed that my link in my sig was removed. There's no ads or anything, just a log of my performance and charts.Ignored
Quoting ciscoDislikedPaul, I don't have an answer for the late cross between the bars, but I did check another item. On my AUD/USD chart there was no cross. I created another chart with an EMA 8 and there was a slight cross like your chart indicates. I have a feeling that this setup will give fewer false entry signals if a simple MA is used. Just a guess.Ignored
Quoting paul2DislikedI just checked things, and I am using a simple MA (8). I changed it to smoothing, and tried exponential, but both altered the chart and gave more false signals. A previous poster mentioned he was buying at the previous day's high in order to confirm the trend, I may give that a try on some of these charts that seem to throw fake signals.Ignored
Quoting miscon777DislikedNot to muddy the waters with different approaches, but I thought I'd throw out the method I've been forwarding testing. There haven't been enough trades yet to determine whether its an improvement or not, but I did a manual backtest from the start of 2006 through about a week ago on the GBPUSD and the results were quite impressive.
This is a 1:1 risk reward system involving two lots. Instead of automatically entering at the opening of the day following a crossover, I set my entry at the previous day's high (or low if sell signal was given). I do this because I see it as a confirmation of ithe ntended trade, and in my backtesting it repeatedly kept me out of trades that were blatently bad.
So, I place an order for one lot at the previous days high with an SL of the previous day's low and a TP equal to the gap between yesterday's high and low (so SL gap = TP gap, or 1:1 risk/reward).
I then place a second order with an entry at the same level as the first, but I divide yesterday's high/low range in half and use that to determine my SL and TP for that order... again, SL gap = TP gap, but this time only half of the previous day's range.
To sum up, I'm waiting for today's price to hit yesterday's extreme, and then setting one order with a SL and TP of yesterday's range, and a second order with a SL and TP of 50% of yesterday's range.
If the 50% range order's TP is hit, I move the 100% range order to BE.
Here's the funk-a-fyer: As days pass and orders remain open, I re-adjust my SLs and TPs based on the day that has just passed. Basically, I built an indicator that shows me the 50% and 100% SL/TP levels as they change each day, which makes it pretty easy.
The cardinal rule in moving SLs and TPs as day pass is that the SL gaps never get increased, no matter what... the TP gap might increase (which happens when day after day the trade is going in your direction), but the SL is never increased (in terms of gap), even if the new day's level indicates that it should. As an example, if you were long and a new day presented a new SL that would be lower than your current SL, you keep your old SL and disregard the new one.
Many of the trades I saw in backtesting were stopped out by their SL... but after three or four days of climbing up and up, and often at a very good profit. Meanwhile, as the TPs increase, you stay in the trade and hope that the trend you've caught continues.
At some point, if things go well, I'll start my own thread for this system.
I apologize in advance if it detracts from the direction this thread is headed.
-miscon777Ignored
Quoting TragapipsDislikedA better pic. In this case SL 2 was triggered but not SL 1 until now.
http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/9...6042120mx9.pngIgnored
Quoting mniemiecDislikedi got 6 signals at 8pm est nzd/usd long-gdp/usd long-chf/jpy short-eur/jpy short-usd/jpy short and aud/usd long did anybody got those to?Ignored