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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #321
  • Oct 3, 2006 1:06pm Oct 3, 2006 1:06pm

can anybody tell me which broker suit fozzy's best??????????????

"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #322
  • Oct 3, 2006 1:32pm Oct 3, 2006 1:32pm
Quoting BeachBum
I did not get a cross on the usd/jpy, not even close. See attached screenshot. The only reason I can think of is that I am using a broker (FXDD) with a platform set to GMT+3 so I get my new daily candle at 5 PM EST.
I finally figured out why I'm getting false crosses. After looking at BB's chart insert, I compared it to my chart. My chart showed a cross of the USD/JPY, so I entered the trade at the start of a new candle yesterday at 5:00 EST. On BB's chart there was no cross. I couldn't figure it out so I called my broker who is FXsol. They don't use MetaTrader, they've got a new system called Accucharts, but they said it would do the same functions as MT. They're right, it will do the same functions but their "Fozzy" indicator showed a cross whereas MT doesn't. The FXSol chart expert couldn't explain why MT didn't show a cross and Accucharts did. So, I guess that means I'll have to get a MT demo acc't. if I'm going to keep trying the "Fozzy." Damn!
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #323
  • Oct 3, 2006 2:05pm Oct 3, 2006 2:05pm
Fozzy is using SBFX for his Demo. It is GMT 0



Quoting cisco
I finally figured out why I'm getting false crosses. After looking at BB's chart insert, I compared it to my chart. My chart showed a cross of the USD/JPY, so I entered the trade at the start of a new candle yesterday at 5:00 EST. On BB's chart there was no cross. I couldn't figure it out so I called my broker who is FXsol. They don't use MetaTrader, they've got a new system called Accucharts, but they said it would do the same functions as MT. They're right, it will do the same functions but their "Fozzy" indicator showed a cross whereas MT doesn't. The FXSol chart expert couldn't explain why MT didn't show a cross and Accucharts did. So, I guess that means I'll have to get a MT demo acc't. if I'm going to keep trying the "Fozzy." Damn!
  • #324
  • Oct 3, 2006 2:17pm Oct 3, 2006 2:17pm
Quoting smjones
Fozzy is using SBFX for his Demo. It is GMT 0
Thank you!
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #325
  • Oct 3, 2006 5:13pm Oct 3, 2006 5:13pm
Not to muddy the waters with different approaches, but I thought I'd throw out the method I've been forwarding testing. There haven't been enough trades yet to determine whether its an improvement or not, but I did a manual backtest from the start of 2006 through about a week ago on the GBPUSD and the results were quite impressive.

This is a 1:1 risk reward system involving two lots. Instead of automatically entering at the opening of the day following a crossover, I set my entry at the previous day's high (or low if sell signal was given). I do this because I see it as a confirmation of ithe ntended trade, and in my backtesting it repeatedly kept me out of trades that were blatently bad.

So, I place an order for one lot at the previous days high with an SL of the previous day's low and a TP equal to the gap between yesterday's high and low (so SL gap = TP gap, or 1:1 risk/reward).

I then place a second order with an entry at the same level as the first, but I divide yesterday's high/low range in half and use that to determine my SL and TP for that order... again, SL gap = TP gap, but this time only half of the previous day's range.

To sum up, I'm waiting for today's price to hit yesterday's extreme, and then setting one order with a SL and TP of yesterday's range, and a second order with a SL and TP of 50% of yesterday's range.

If the 50% range order's TP is hit, I move the 100% range order to BE.

Here's the funk-a-fyer: As days pass and orders remain open, I re-adjust my SLs and TPs based on the day that has just passed. Basically, I built an indicator that shows me the 50% and 100% SL/TP levels as they change each day, which makes it pretty easy.

The cardinal rule in moving SLs and TPs as day pass is that the SL gaps never get increased, no matter what... the TP gap might increase (which happens when day after day the trade is going in your direction), but the SL is never increased (in terms of gap), even if the new day's level indicates that it should. As an example, if you were long and a new day presented a new SL that would be lower than your current SL, you keep your old SL and disregard the new one.

Many of the trades I saw in backtesting were stopped out by their SL... but after three or four days of climbing up and up, and often at a very good profit. Meanwhile, as the TPs increase, you stay in the trade and hope that the trend you've caught continues.

At some point, if things go well, I'll start my own thread for this system.

I apologize in advance if it detracts from the direction this thread is headed.


-miscon777
Et ecce equus pallidus...
  • #326
  • Oct 4, 2006 12:29am Oct 4, 2006 12:29am
Miscon777,
Thanks for sharing your ideas. I like the way you've tackled the risk reward issue that you raised in an earlier post in this thread. For long timeframe charts (eg: >=4h charts) I struggle with the idea that many propose whereby you take some profits and move to break even as soon as possible, but in so doing drag your risk reward to below 1.
If you feel inclined, would you be willing to post any of your backtest stats using your trade management approach?
Cheers
  • #327
  • Oct 4, 2006 1:55am Oct 4, 2006 1:55am
Quoting cisco
I finally figured out why I'm getting false crosses. After looking at BB's chart insert, I compared it to my chart. My chart showed a cross of the USD/JPY, so I entered the trade at the start of a new candle yesterday at 5:00 EST. On BB's chart there was no cross. I couldn't figure it out so I called my broker who is FXsol. They don't use MetaTrader, they've got a new system called Accucharts, but they said it would do the same functions as MT. They're right, it will do the same functions but their "Fozzy" indicator showed a cross whereas MT doesn't. The FXSol chart expert couldn't explain why MT didn't show a cross and Accucharts did. So, I guess that means I'll have to get a MT demo acc't. if I'm going to keep trying the "Fozzy." Damn!
Just to throw my dos pippas in there; you should always have some sort of MT4 account as a charting reference. Not neccessarily the first chart, but it should be a part of your load-out. I can't count how many numerous trades I've made that have been facilitated by using MT4 charting in conjunction with something like FXSol or FXCM's charting (but I'm with FXSol now, happily I might add).
  • #328
  • Oct 4, 2006 4:07am Oct 4, 2006 4:07am
Miscon777

Is this your idea?

http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/762...6040852pi2.png

With a sell signal put 2 orders at low of day before: one order with a SL at high of previous and the other one with SL at 50 % of previous day?
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #329
  • Oct 4, 2006 4:15am Oct 4, 2006 4:15am
A better pic. In this case SL 2 was triggered but not SL 1 until now.

http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/9...6042120mx9.png
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #330
  • Oct 4, 2006 6:45am Oct 4, 2006 6:45am
I've noticed that when the cross forms on the far right of "inbetween" the bars, it doesn't usually work out. This is one example of many i've seen. Any comments? I lost a few bucks on this one, but another play turned out just fine. So far I'm really liking fozzy's idea.

http://www.aforexblog.com/wp-content...-afternoon.gif

PS: What are the rules of posting a link to my blog? I've noticed that my link in my sig was removed. There's no ads or anything, just a log of my performance and charts.
So far so good.
  • #331
  • Oct 4, 2006 7:33am Oct 4, 2006 7:33am
Quoting paul2
I've noticed that when the cross forms on the far right of "inbetween" the bars, it doesn't usually work out. This is one example of many i've seen. Any comments? I lost a few bucks on this one, but another play turned out just fine. So far I'm really liking fozzy's idea.

http://www.aforexblog.com/wp-content...-afternoon.gif

PS: What are the rules of posting a link to my blog? I've noticed that my link in my sig was removed. There's no ads or anything, just a log of my performance and charts.
Paul, I don't have an answer for the late cross between the bars, but I did check another item. On my AUD/USD chart there was no cross. I created another chart with an EMA 8 and there was a slight cross like your chart indicates. I have a feeling that this setup will give fewer false entry signals if a simple MA is used. Just a guess.
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #332
  • Oct 4, 2006 7:35am Oct 4, 2006 7:35am
Quoting cisco
Paul, I don't have an answer for the late cross between the bars, but I did check another item. On my AUD/USD chart there was no cross. I created another chart with an EMA 8 and there was a slight cross like your chart indicates. I have a feeling that this setup will give fewer false entry signals if a simple MA is used. Just a guess.
I just checked things, and I am using a simple MA (8). I changed it to smoothing, and tried exponential, but both altered the chart and gave more false signals. A previous poster mentioned he was buying at the previous day's high in order to confirm the trend, I may give that a try on some of these charts that seem to throw fake signals.
So far so good.
  • #333
  • Oct 4, 2006 8:40am Oct 4, 2006 8:40am
Quoting paul2
I just checked things, and I am using a simple MA (8). I changed it to smoothing, and tried exponential, but both altered the chart and gave more false signals. A previous poster mentioned he was buying at the previous day's high in order to confirm the trend, I may give that a try on some of these charts that seem to throw fake signals.
Paul, Sorry I couldn't help. I was having the same false signal problem using FXSOL so I went to SBFX and opened a demo acc't. with them. It must be some kind of data feed problem with the different brokers, although I must admit that I'm electronicly challenged.
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #334
  • Oct 4, 2006 10:24am Oct 4, 2006 10:24am
miscon777..........

This appears to be an interesting trading method. In part, because I had a similar idea about a year ago but did not pursue it, instead opting to spend my time working with VP software. Personally I would like to see you develop this and post your results in a new thread. Please let us know if you decide to do so.

BB


Quoting miscon777
Not to muddy the waters with different approaches, but I thought I'd throw out the method I've been forwarding testing. There haven't been enough trades yet to determine whether its an improvement or not, but I did a manual backtest from the start of 2006 through about a week ago on the GBPUSD and the results were quite impressive.

This is a 1:1 risk reward system involving two lots. Instead of automatically entering at the opening of the day following a crossover, I set my entry at the previous day's high (or low if sell signal was given). I do this because I see it as a confirmation of ithe ntended trade, and in my backtesting it repeatedly kept me out of trades that were blatently bad.

So, I place an order for one lot at the previous days high with an SL of the previous day's low and a TP equal to the gap between yesterday's high and low (so SL gap = TP gap, or 1:1 risk/reward).

I then place a second order with an entry at the same level as the first, but I divide yesterday's high/low range in half and use that to determine my SL and TP for that order... again, SL gap = TP gap, but this time only half of the previous day's range.

To sum up, I'm waiting for today's price to hit yesterday's extreme, and then setting one order with a SL and TP of yesterday's range, and a second order with a SL and TP of 50% of yesterday's range.

If the 50% range order's TP is hit, I move the 100% range order to BE.

Here's the funk-a-fyer: As days pass and orders remain open, I re-adjust my SLs and TPs based on the day that has just passed. Basically, I built an indicator that shows me the 50% and 100% SL/TP levels as they change each day, which makes it pretty easy.

The cardinal rule in moving SLs and TPs as day pass is that the SL gaps never get increased, no matter what... the TP gap might increase (which happens when day after day the trade is going in your direction), but the SL is never increased (in terms of gap), even if the new day's level indicates that it should. As an example, if you were long and a new day presented a new SL that would be lower than your current SL, you keep your old SL and disregard the new one.

Many of the trades I saw in backtesting were stopped out by their SL... but after three or four days of climbing up and up, and often at a very good profit. Meanwhile, as the TPs increase, you stay in the trade and hope that the trend you've caught continues.

At some point, if things go well, I'll start my own thread for this system.

I apologize in advance if it detracts from the direction this thread is headed.


-miscon777
  • #335
  • Oct 4, 2006 3:40pm Oct 4, 2006 3:40pm
yep tragapips, that's the basic idea... I'll try to find the time to get some more visual examples posted, probably in a new thread, and then post the link to the new thread here.

Quoting Tragapips
A better pic. In this case SL 2 was triggered but not SL 1 until now.

http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/9...6042120mx9.png
Et ecce equus pallidus...
  • #336
  • Oct 4, 2006 4:00pm Oct 4, 2006 4:00pm
Miscon, I lie the idea of entering at the H/L of the previous candle. It might keep you out of trades that barely cross, then retrace in the opposite direction. Good job.
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #337
  • Oct 4, 2006 6:55pm Oct 4, 2006 6:55pm
Hey Guys!

Is anyone long on NZD/USD? I entered at 6633. I hope I'll be safe before scary Friday.
  • #338
  • Oct 4, 2006 7:11pm Oct 4, 2006 7:11pm
me to long nzd/usd
Quoting JBB
Hey Guys!

Is anyone long on NZD/USD? I entered at 6633. I hope I'll be safe before scary Friday.
MIR
  • #339
  • Oct 4, 2006 7:14pm Oct 4, 2006 7:14pm
i got 6 signals at 8pm est nzd/usd long-gdp/usd long-chf/jpy short-eur/jpy short-usd/jpy short and aud/usd long did anybody got those to?
MIR
  • #340
  • Oct 4, 2006 7:23pm Oct 4, 2006 7:23pm
Quoting mniemiec
i got 6 signals at 8pm est nzd/usd long-gdp/usd long-chf/jpy short-eur/jpy short-usd/jpy short and aud/usd long did anybody got those to?
I'm shorting USD/JPY and EUR/GBP, picked from a large group of signals.

I'm posting charts / info on my blog (can I drop a link here? Im confused on the rules) if anyone's interested.
So far so good.
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