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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #77,221
  • Jul 7, 2018 9:07am Jul 7, 2018 9:07am
Quoting coolmakina
Hi, Breaking up above 111.38 would be one of biggest surprises in my life. but then again... life is full od surprises, isn't it? Besides following days migth shows us some up moves (take as much as you can), i believe that major move will be down way... besides me, who knows? {image}
Thanks for the analysis. A quick question can you direct to the place where I can get the time zones that you have on the top left?
  • #77,222
  • Jul 7, 2018 9:19am Jul 7, 2018 9:19am
Quoting hellsbells
{quote} Hi ironjaw, good job with your first trade. My advice would be to tighten your SL right on up. One of the hardest things in this business (for me at least) was learning to accept losses. The more time you spend trading FOREX the more you'll get used to seeing it suddenly go crazy and move say 500pips in a very short time frame. You will have no control over it, and it will have nothing to do with your technical analysis ability, and if you have a loose SL you will lose money so fast. My other advice is this, never ever trust the current...
Hellsbells:

Thank you so much for the advice. I am quite new to this game so please excuse my ignorance but would you elaborate what you mean by tighten my SL? I don’t think I have capital to cover 500 pips movement but I can see what you mean. Still learning but I’ve got a long way to go and I’m practicing the demo account. The thing is forex is so addictive and I find that I want to learn as much as possible. How long have you been trading on Forex and do you think the lack of having a financial background is a detriment?
  • #77,223
  • Jul 7, 2018 9:48am Jul 7, 2018 9:48am
Quoting ironjaw
{quote} Thanks for the analysis. A quick question can you direct to the place where I can get the time zones that you have on the top left?
HI iron jaw, those came from a template that also xrin has.
I have it throught sonic system I guess. It is a TAH template.
If you search forex factory by sonic r system you might find it, otherwise let me know. I'm not over my laptop during weekend but I can share if pm in case you couldn't find it.
Cheers.
If you don't know how to earn money, don't loose it.
  • #77,224
  • Jul 7, 2018 12:45pm Jul 7, 2018 12:45pm
Quoting hellsbells
When I sit down to trade I don't have a bullish or bearish expectation, I try to respond to what the market's doing and just get into a profit trade. Having said that, and not currently being in a trade, here is my prediction of the next few days. Unless BOJ gets things started Monday I think there'll be an exploration of trendlines until late Tue/early Wed then when everyone is pulling their hair out, a definitive blow out. I'm curious what other people think will happen. {image}

Your drawing shows it, the pair is at a cross roads. Fundamentally, USD should be getting weaker, this week the DXY broke a short term demand zone, followed shortly after with a break of the uptrend. As well 30 year BONDs have trended lower, with the divergence of UJ. UJ's gotta play some catch up now.
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #77,225
  • Edited 6:38pm Jul 7, 2018 6:00pm | Edited 6:38pm
Quoting ironjaw
{quote} Hellsbells: Thank you so much for the advice. I am quite new to this game so please excuse my ignorance but would you elaborate what you mean by tighten my SL? I don’t think I have capital to cover 500 pips movement but I can see what you mean. Still learning but I’ve got a long way to go and I’m practicing the demo account. The thing is forex is so addictive and I find that I want to learn as much as possible. How long have you been trading on Forex and do you think the lack of having a financial background is a detriment?
Hey ironjaw. I've been trading 3 years. I started trading .01 lots and traded terribly due to overtrading, having a SL (stop loss) too loose, , not having enough patience. Now I'm trading 2 lots at a time and my trading has improved because I only enter trades that I feel have best entry, I have a firm stop loss of no more than 2 candles ( 5 2lot trades using 5min candle chart can be -$1k in 5 min so SL MUST be tight),. I trade based on 5 min chart . My strategy includes but not limited to whole candle rejection of last resistance. I use S/R TL and assess the whole big picture, I also have volumes at the bottom of my screen.. I will place 3 to 5 trades depending on how happy with entry I am. I will take profit with 2 trades after possibly 2 candles,, decreasing my exposure and have stop loss tightened to 1 candle for the next few candles. I try to hold 1 trade for a complete up/down cycle of 3-5 hours. I have been a paramedic for 20 years and am taking time away from that to trade fulltime. It takes time to figure out a trading strategy that's right for u. I avoid trading the news . Good luck. Maximise your wins, accept losses . Profit >losses = success, best achieved by me by holding a winning trade hopefully >3hrs / >20pips. I started with $3k and got down to -$8k before I started getting regular profits.i would say one of my biggest issues was learning what made an acceptable win/loss ratio. For eg lets say last week I made approx $5k profit trades but had losing trades of approx $3.2k for net profit $1.8k. That's a random example , but i think my idea of success when i started was making $5k and losing nothing! I have no idea what stats others have, as long as I'm in black not red. Some trading days are red.
  • #77,226
  • Jul 8, 2018 5:14am Jul 8, 2018 5:14am
With those news about N.Korea, I think there could be some uncertainty and I won't be surprised to see yen pairs gap down on opening.
  • #77,227
  • Jul 8, 2018 3:55pm Jul 8, 2018 3:55pm
My clouded crystal ball is thinking is a gap down. then a strong bear run to 110.13 for a 2 candled double bottom. pretty confident there. then long to 111.399. if it passes through then its a big rally up. but if it gaps up there on the candle open then its back to 109.00 to begin the big rally. its printing the the last stages of the map. it should end at 109.
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  • #77,228
  • Jul 9, 2018 4:00am Jul 9, 2018 4:00am
I honestly believe that there is an enormous amount of cash to be made from riding a wave upward. There is an enormous amount of USD demand which hasn't been filled yet. Just think of how you could buy and then sell after this up move? Its a great opportunity.

Many people forget that institutions and large order makers (such as corporations) are VERY broad minded and take a VERY long term approach. We've already seen the affect of capital inflow within stock valuations. (Thus is just speculation money IMO)

Regardless of whatever you perceive from NK or other similar concerns, the US is a screaming buy. I've never seen a country that is on fire as much the US is. (A good fire BTW)

Anyway what do I know.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #77,229
  • Jul 9, 2018 4:22am Jul 9, 2018 4:22am
Usd/Jpy is in search of direction, the pair is almost trading flat, range narrow to 110.30 to 110.80.
  • #77,230
  • Jul 9, 2018 5:47am Jul 9, 2018 5:47am
I believe
I know
I think
I
I
I

Traders matter not, judge me by the trades "I" take, do you, hmmm? Well you should not, for my trades aren't shared. My ally is the chart, and a powerful ally it is. Traders create it, banks make it grow. Each tick surrounds us and binds us. A trader must trust the chart, not these crude predictions. A trader must feel the Chart, between you, your mouse, your screen, here between fellow traders everyone is an expert, everyone predicts. Listen to the chart a trader should, for the chart shows the path. Without it a trader has no direction.

What does this chart show? Please share, what you see!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #77,231
  • Jul 9, 2018 12:01pm Jul 9, 2018 12:01pm
i have no idea what some charts are showing...
at mine, i saw a good chance to short.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you don't know how to earn money, don't loose it.
  • #77,232
  • Jul 9, 2018 1:38pm Jul 9, 2018 1:38pm
Quoting MorganX
Scenario still in play {image}
Will 111 brake by end of this week?
  • #77,233
  • Jul 9, 2018 4:38pm Jul 9, 2018 4:38pm
Quoting COGSx86
I believe I know I think I I I Traders matter not, judge me by the trades "I" take, do you, hmmm? Well you should not, for my trades aren't shared. My ally is the chart, and a powerful ally it is. Traders create it, banks make it grow. Each tick surrounds us and binds us. A trader must trust the chart, not these crude predictions. A trader must feel the Chart, between you, your mouse, your screen, here between fellow traders everyone is an expert, everyone predicts. Listen to the chart a trader should, for the chart shows the path. Without it a...

It would be interesting to see your graph going back a couple of years. Obviously at the left there's a disparity between the two and they come together, like what it appears it should now do. What caused the disparity at the start of your graph when they are so separated? Is this a normal cycle ?
  • #77,234
  • Jul 9, 2018 6:16pm Jul 9, 2018 6:16pm
Meanwhile bonds made a reversal earlier today. Price down/rate up therefore UJ Up.
  • #77,235
  • Jul 10, 2018 12:22pm Jul 10, 2018 12:22pm
Im waiting for the breakout
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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- If you plant corn, you get corn
  • #77,236
  • Jul 10, 2018 2:05pm Jul 10, 2018 2:05pm
Quoting hellsbells
{quote} It would be interesting to see your graph going back a couple of years. Obviously at the left there's a disparity between the two and they come together, like what it appears it should now do. What caused the disparity at the start of your graph when they are so separated? Is this a normal cycle ?

Short answer, the Japs were dumping a large amount of bonds from Sept to late March.

"Japanese Are Selling U.S. Bonds Over Budget, Dollar Fears"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uncle-s...bts-1519727406

"Japanese investors dump record amount of U.S. bonds in February"
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j...-idUSKBN1HG0C4
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #77,237
  • Jul 10, 2018 2:22pm Jul 10, 2018 2:22pm
Also global equities rallying so risk on. Yen needs risk off to get any decent buying these days.
  • #77,238
  • Jul 10, 2018 3:25pm Jul 10, 2018 3:25pm
USD/JPY made an amazing rally today and the pair holding steadily above 111.00 level. Next bullush target is seen at 111.40.
  • #77,239
  • Jul 10, 2018 4:05pm Jul 10, 2018 4:05pm
What happened on the JPY pairs?! Was the 200 billions tariff so impactful?
  • #77,240
  • Jul 10, 2018 4:07pm Jul 10, 2018 4:07pm
I understand why AUD and NZD were affected negatively but why JPY gained with it? Is it because it's a safe haven?
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