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The only thread you will ever need: FX Exposed!

  • #3,981
  • Jul 9, 2018 3:44pm Jul 9, 2018 3:44pm
Quoting ForeignTrade
{quote} When it gives you new insights, crack your brain around it and use that in your own methods. Yes.
What insights ?

About stops?

About Algos?

About Banks?


THE ONLY DIFFERENCE ALL HERE MAY HAVE WITH FF IS THE LUCK OF SPECIFIED INFORMATION.
He mentions that also in his videos.

He didnt reinvent anything, all those data are already for years common knowledge to those who know about market structure in general. And you can learn also if you just search at the right places.
  • #3,982
  • Jul 9, 2018 3:47pm Jul 9, 2018 3:47pm
Quoting FractalFreak
"Agree FF... but there is also a lot of common sense involved when it comes to trading. As you said, this is not rocket science and certain things can be avoided even on a naked char" Well done VEEFX....horrido.... do u remember when you were sceptical at the beginning? ;-) Kommt Zeit, kommt Rat. FF
Agree.... now the question is which one works better... follow a breakout or wait for a bounce or both!.... this is where trading stats are important measure (and why Sis//. thread "the killing floor" attracted my attention).

With Bounce, I move to BE and let profits run until Friday.
With Breakout, I use fakeout to take quick and frequent profits off the table and let losers run until Friday.

All across 28 pairs and many MTF timeframes to spread my risk and concentration across the landscape in the hopes that whatever mathematical correlations that exists across 28 pairs will eventually take me to net profitability.
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,983
  • Jul 9, 2018 3:50pm Jul 9, 2018 3:50pm
Quoting stoxos
{quote} What insights ? About stops? About Algos? About Banks? THE ONLY DIFFERENCE ALL HERE MAY HAVE WITH FF IS THE LUCK OF SPECIFIED INFORMATION. He mentions that also in his videos. He didnt reinvent anything, all those data are already for years common knowledge to those who know about market structure in general. And you can learn also if you just search at the right places.
Frankly, I am waiting for FF to share more on his meta levels. I am using them but I am not sure if it is similar to my technique or something else. I am also VERY interested in his reference to "ADAPTIVE CONTROLS".... I believe a smart algo can be written to defeat another algo.... after all, life is just a never-ending game of peek-a-boo.
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,984
  • Jul 9, 2018 3:51pm Jul 9, 2018 3:51pm
Quoting stoxos
{quote} And you can learn also if you just search at the right places.
Exactly, study someone elses study, wherever that may be.

I didn't say all here is new. The concepts of the market are teached here on a deeper level.
I'm just challenged by the rare way it is presented. From a total different perspective. That tickles my brain, that's why I'm hooked.
  • #3,985
  • Jul 9, 2018 3:54pm Jul 9, 2018 3:54pm
Quoting ForeignTrade
{quote} Exactly, study someone elses study, wherever that may be. I didn't say all here is new. The concepts of the market are teached here on a deeper level. I'm just challenged by the rare way it is presented. From a total different perspective. That tickles my brain, that's why I'm hooked.
Have you been to White-Water Rafting? This concept is similar to avoiding all the rocks and falling off the raft. We MUST know when to paddle, when to anticipate the flow/current/force of water and then maneuver beforehand and know what to do when you raft is stuck.... and what to do when someone falls off the raft (leave his ass and continue lol)
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,986
  • Jul 9, 2018 4:03pm Jul 9, 2018 4:03pm
Quoting ForeignTrade
{quote} Exactly, study someone elses study, wherever that may be. I didn't say all here is new. The concepts of the market are teached here on a deeper level. I'm just challenged by the rare way it is presented. From a total different perspective. That tickles my brain, that's why I'm hooked.
There is a difference between i contact the study/ research like FF did and its an other story when i just read FF study. He maybe had a variable wrong in his journey and that may be catastrophic. Since you are not going ever to meet the guy that codes the algos or the head of Goldman Sachs to tell validate that what you found is what they do. The only think you do is you assume. Now if you take other people assumptions(aka studies) you add an extra layer to your view. So you make assumption for an assumption.

Sorry to say most people are thrilled here by the idea of someone having the silver bullet and may give them a tunnel that in the end has for sure light. Its like DOPE.
You want something like that to happen. You think you are getting closer. You have a big smile.

And all of that is logic and natural things. We are humans.

I am here out of curiosity for the data. So one day he maybe go public or i will be bored!
  • #3,987
  • Jul 9, 2018 4:16pm Jul 9, 2018 4:16pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Have you been to White-Water Rafting? This concept is similar to avoiding all the rocks and falling off the raft. We MUST know when to paddle, when to anticipate the flow/current/force of water and then maneuver beforehand and know what to do when you raft is stuck.... and what to do when someone falls off the raft (leave his ass and continue lol)
Me thinks this is more like a pre briefing of the real dangers of rocks and rafts etc. And then push you to the edge of the water. Look for yourself! You see!
You are not throwed in the water yet. Nobody said you should already trade on things said here. Actually you were advised not to.
Check it first for yourself. Knowing the pitfalls and concept of a river.
This is not a 2 hour course before rafting, It's more a semester.
  • #3,988
  • Jul 9, 2018 4:23pm Jul 9, 2018 4:23pm
Quoting stoxos
{quote} There is a difference between i contact the study/ research like FF did and its an other story when i just read FF study. He maybe had a variable wrong in his journey and that may be catastrophic. Since you are not going ever to meet the guy that codes the algos or the head of Goldman Sachs to tell validate that what you found is what they do. The only think you do is you assume. Now if you take other people assumptions(aka studies) you add an extra layer to your view. So you make assumption for an assumption. Sorry to say most people are...
Seems you assumed some things....
One way of going through my life is take notice what others do, say or show, check for myself and then put it into my life/system if it suits me.
The thing here is, FF set the brains (of some, not all.... at work. To draw a conclusion for your own.

I never looked for a holy grail or a silver bullet, specially not on a golden plate. Those I don't trust.
I use the concepts he shows here in my own trading.
  • #3,989
  • Jul 9, 2018 4:37pm Jul 9, 2018 4:37pm
Quoting ForeignTrade
{quote} Seems you assumed some things.... One way of going through my life is take notice what others do, say or show, check for myself and then put it into my life/system if it suits me. The thing here is, FF set the brains (of some, not all.... at work. To draw a conclusion for your own. I never looked for a holy grail or a silver bullet, specially not on a golden plate. Those I don't trust. I use the concepts he shows here in my own trading.
Thats good,. But still you put an others person assumptions to your own assumption. Now if you do this by your own you are going to have in first hand the real evidences that you dig out. Now but absorbing FF you dont have those things.
  • #3,990
  • Jul 9, 2018 4:51pm Jul 9, 2018 4:51pm
Quoting stoxos
{quote} Thats good,. But still you put an others person assumptions to your own assumption. Now if you do this by your own you are going to have in first hand the real evidences that you dig out. Now but absorbing FF you dont have those things.
The same goes for "And you can learn also if you just search at the right places." as you wrote a few posts back.

You boil this discussion down on FF and this thread. That's not necessary and not OK to say at least.

Anyways, I go do some trade study, where ever I have got it from.
  • #3,991
  • Jul 9, 2018 5:04pm Jul 9, 2018 5:04pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} These are automated trades but without any indicator or looking at any historical candles... only at closing price. That is why I win some and lose some....but overall, with some peace of mind because single trade outcome does not mean anything to me. I have a love/hate with breakeven stops as I have over 2 dozen trades this week taken out at breakeven.... my current setting is to move at BE+3 when 10+spread pips in profit as there is simply no manual effort involved. {image} {image}
Hi VeeFx,

I thought you were not in favor of third party verification services, just like MyFxBook.

Cheers!
Víctor
  • #3,992
  • Edited 8:30pm Jul 9, 2018 6:13pm | Edited 8:30pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Hi VeeFx, I thought you were not in favor of third party verification services, just like MyFxBook. Cheers! Víctor
Yes..I am against such services and I do not want to announce it here because it is not verified. I am not sure how this works as they don't have my investor account password.

Actually, I want to now open a new chart without myFXbook to avoid showing it on screenshots. That arrow is my open order line indicator which precisely pinpoints my trade on M1 unlike the standard mt4 retarted order line which does not show which candle the order was executed. Simple things in life can make a huge difference!
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,993
  • Jul 10, 2018 1:32am Jul 10, 2018 1:32am
Quoting vwap
Re: AUDUSD Friday 6th July Continued {image} {image} During NFP the counter stop MTS of the DM Shorts was taken out, from the 4h chart we can observe higher MTS of DM Shorts (which have also now been targeted) The general consensus from several members in the thread during the 5th and 6th of July The members JustPipping, Mitibloch, Milan, SilverAU and myself posted our observations and expectations in post numbers: 3650, 3651, 3660, 3665, 3667, 3669. In the charts of the 5th and 6th of July there looked to be a consensus of majority DM Longs as...
Hi vwap,
Before FF will comment I would like to try and explain of what I see in the 4H chart.
If you have a look all the way to the left of the 4H chart you will see that the longies has been coming into the market and the market was going down (as you have understand when longies comes in the market will go down). The market had gone down for a while at some point the SM have taken out enough longies and they must start an opposite direction if not the SM will be easy to read. The next question will be when is the SM satisfied and will go in the opposite direction? That I think even FF will not know
  • #3,994
  • Jul 10, 2018 1:40am Jul 10, 2018 1:40am
Quoting vwap
Please may I ask FractalFreak if you could comment on the amount of DM longs, as we all assumed that the DM longs are/were still in the market, and several of us placed short trades which were stopped out which we are responsible for. The reason that I would ask this question here, is that many of us were sure that the charts were heavily DM Long, and expected a downmove, but it didnt come, and we could see the SL above get hit, and your comment about the low DM flow and only a few longs within the DM tolerance was the correct analysis.
I believe that the info put up by FF doesn't guarantee that the market will move in a certain direction, even if the plausibility is strong and bias is strong. Strong bias just means higher chance, it doesn't mean markets WILL move that way. Remember, markets are controlled by SM, not by FF, so what he is sharing just helps us to understand the price movements better but we still can't predict the markets 100%.

Proper money management is still required and we still have to cut losses to certain trades. Remember FF mentioned something about using a third to trade. Also more importantly the part where if unsure, don't trade and save your ammo. I guess you have to learn more what is meant by the unsure part. Only trade those set ups with strong or VERY strong bias, then your chance of success will also increase.

From what I see, the bias for that trade wasn't strong at all (Low DM flow). So the price movements can be influenced by many other factors such as other currencies, news etc. Also note, the data in FF's charts are not fixed, they are live and ever changing. So in a way, we are at mercy of the markets till FF posts the next chart update. Unless you learn how some others here do it, to be able to trade using naked charts.
  • #3,995
  • Jul 10, 2018 1:53am Jul 10, 2018 1:53am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Yes. This was in the 90s when I was thickheaded. I was the only kid to stand up against the 'old' jurors who were too quick to reach the guilty verdict. It was the worst 3 days of my life! But at the end, after a hung jury decision, I felt pretty good of doing the right thing. Later on, after the trial was over, all jurors learnt that it was a 3rd strike (they do not tell jurors any of the past details) and that he could have gone in jail for LIFE (via california's 3 strikes law) for something extremely minor violation. He was just stupid...
Seriously man , great going.

You saved someone from a life time of misery. Hope that guy counted his blessings and made the best use of the god given opportunity...
  • #3,996
  • Jul 10, 2018 3:03am Jul 10, 2018 3:03am
Quoting El1000
{quote} Hi vwap, Before FF will comment I would like to try and explain of what I see in the 4H chart. If you have a look all the way to the left of the 4H chart you will see that the longies has been coming into the market and the market was going down (as you have understand when longies comes in the market will go down). The market had gone down for a while at some point the SM have taken out enough longies and they must start an opposite direction if not the SM will be easy to read. The next question will be when is the SM satisfied and will...
Hello El1000,

Thanks for your reply, on the 4h chart you mention that the longs has been coming into the market, correct, and if you look at his h4 chart, that is the only thing that is on his chart, only longs, there are no shorts.

And in the 4h chart it went up on DM longs and down on DM longs in fact, it did everything, and according to the data all of the green bars are long.

The 4h chart is useless, all it shows is that the DM are apparently long, and the market is going up and down, with all of these DM still long? Where are the sellers on the 4h chart? there are none?

If the majority of DM is long, and then market just go up 170 points, the 4h chart data is wrong.

As that means that all of the DM longs profited on the move up. Either the data or the logic is incorrect. Note how when it was pointed out, the attention was turned to META levels.

That data and the model do not go together, not in the way it is being presented here. And now many people asked many questions about all of the longs beign trapped in there.

And if you look no one got a reply as to why it did that.........no explanation. Nothing.

So I think it would be good to see when the data fails, for me this is unreliable data, and the logic is broken. I am not trying to discredit anything, I just see that it doesnt work.

So I am looking for some evidence of what went wrong in AUDUSD so I can understand the logic and data. So far it is incorrect.
  • #3,997
  • Jul 10, 2018 3:17am Jul 10, 2018 3:17am
about the data, there are more data issues:

you can see here in an image from one of stoxos posts about fractals posts, the data is incorrectly showing SL still:

Attached Image


Why is the SL level still showing if it is live? it should have been removed...
  • #3,998
  • Jul 10, 2018 3:28am Jul 10, 2018 3:28am
EU on M15:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euuedueud.png Size: 32 KB
www.sme-fx.com
  • #3,999
  • Jul 10, 2018 3:29am Jul 10, 2018 3:29am
Gold on H1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: goold onm h11.png Size: 44 KB
www.sme-fx.com
  • #4,000
  • Jul 10, 2018 3:37am Jul 10, 2018 3:37am
Quoting FractalFreak
EU on M15: {image}
Not really a strong Bias on short or long.
Unsure -> So for now no trade on EU for me

Edit: The moment I write this it goes 20 pips down in a straight line...
So would not be surprised if there recent longs.
Hard to tell, maybe following EU screenshot tells more
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