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A little bit of give back

  • #221
  • Jul 5, 2018 10:46pm Jul 5, 2018 10:46pm
Quoting raedmaa
{image}
Dear raedmaa,

Thanks for posting those images, I was wondering how do you derive 0.709, 0.764 (3.23) and 0.819 as these are not standard fib numbers that I have encountered before. Are these custom fib ratios that you have projected and added values for?

Why do you not use 0.786?

I even looked up to the 5th derivative of golden mean and couldn't find matching numbers there.
Best Regards,
Tzamo
"Work hard, put in the effort, and follow your dreams..." -Me
  • #222
  • Jul 6, 2018 12:32am Jul 6, 2018 12:32am
The beauty and accuracy of Nut's method:

USDCAD 1 Hour
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  • #223
  • Jul 6, 2018 2:07am Jul 6, 2018 2:07am
I have been playing around with this method. Im still having issues finding my initial points, and end up just kind of fitting the levels to the graph instead of basing it off the initial datum. Im guessing it's a matter of practice and perhap experience. Here is EURCAD, 1H. Feedback would be greatly appreciated.
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  • #224
  • Jul 6, 2018 2:57am Jul 6, 2018 2:57am
Quoting forexcentric
{quote} Hi Mza55, IMHO, this is the right start. You want to measure an uptrend, so the orientation of 0.618 is up, but you measure the last extreme down candle ( including downwick ). Nut, if I'm wrong, please shoot me ... {image}
I still don't get it, why did u pick that candle? I understand the lowest low but previous high, why u picked the previous candle?
  • #225
  • Jul 6, 2018 3:41am Jul 6, 2018 3:41am
Quoting Mza55
{quote} I still don't get it, why did u pick that candle? I understand the lowest low but previous high, why u picked the previous candle?
Because, when you study a possible reversal, you pick the last candle from the last move. In that figure, the last move ( previous to the analyzed candle ) was down, so you pick the last down candle. You put the fibo retracement tool on that candle, with 0.618 being upward in relation to 0.5 ( because you analyze a possible up move ).

Now, if that last candle is followed by a candle up, but with a lower low than the last down candle ( fake break down ), you move the lower end of fibo tool to that lower low, including that fake move. If the first candle up doesn't have a lower low, you leave the fibo tool as it is - on the last candle down.

At least this is what I understood from the video made by Nut and the posts.
  • #226
  • Jul 6, 2018 4:18am Jul 6, 2018 4:18am
Quoting tzamo
{quote} Dear raedmaa, Thanks for posting those images, I was wondering how do you derive 0.709, 0.764 (3.23) and 0.819 as these are not standard fib numbers that I have encountered before. Are these custom fib ratios that you have projected and added values for? Why do you not use 0.786? I even looked up to the 5th derivative of golden mean and couldn't find matching numbers there. Best Regards, Tzamo
Here you go -- study well -- observe charts --
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  • #227
  • Jul 6, 2018 4:25am Jul 6, 2018 4:25am
Hi all, seems there is still some misunderstanding as to how I implement my fibs. so I shall try again using my most efficient method. It will take a few posts as I shall attempt to explain the reasoning behind the system.
The first chart is an explanation of the basic model as defined by Fibonacci. The important point to note is the 61.8% always comes first. This level is known as the golden mean of the distance you are measuring. by default after 61.8% another 38.2% is still to come and will = 1.
The attachment also shows a bearish model. The 38.2% level is the defining point as a reversal here means a possible 61.8% move in the opposite direction which once again mean the model = 1.
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  • #228
  • Jul 6, 2018 4:33am Jul 6, 2018 4:33am
Now if I place my fibs on length 1 then I get a golden mean either above or below my zero line. Depending on my view of the market depends upon which golden mean I choose.
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  • #229
  • Jul 6, 2018 4:45am Jul 6, 2018 4:45am
So now after the golden mean in the last chart it is reasonable to expect a further 38.2 expansion from the golden mean. The expansion can be seen in this chart. Price has become trapped at this level as the sheep stealers and horse rustlers battle it out.
This 38.2% level is the defining point between the uptrend or downtrend.
Have I cleared things up or baffled everybody. No offence intended but it may take a little time for the concept take hold.
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  • #230
  • Jul 6, 2018 5:17am Jul 6, 2018 5:17am
Quoting Davenjdgt
I have been playing around with this method. Im still having issues finding my initial points, and end up just kind of fitting the levels to the graph instead of basing it off the initial datum. Im guessing it's a matter of practice and perhap experience. Here is EURCAD, 1H. Feedback would be greatly appreciated. {image}
This is what I get on EURCAD in three steps.
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  • #231
  • Jul 6, 2018 5:22am Jul 6, 2018 5:22am
Quoting Nut
So now after the golden mean in the last chart it is reasonable to expect a further 38.2 expansion from the golden mean. The expansion can be seen in this chart. Price has become trapped at this level as the sheep stealers and horse rustlers battle it out. This 38.2% level is the defining point between the uptrend or downtrend. Have I cleared things up or baffled everybody. No offence intended but it may take a little time for the concept take hold. {image}
I have been using the diagrams posted by FXState in posts 95 and 125 and endorsed by yourself.
  • #232
  • Jul 6, 2018 5:25am Jul 6, 2018 5:25am
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} This is what I get on EURCAD in three steps.{image}{image}{image}
I just checked your chart on my screen spot on. Well done stop being too hard on yourself. Also what horrible price movement.
  • #233
  • Edited 7:40am Jul 6, 2018 5:35am | Edited 7:40am
.
  • #234
  • Jul 6, 2018 6:24am Jul 6, 2018 6:24am
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} This is what I get on EURCAD in three steps.{image}{image}{image}
Thanks, we've put a different high but now I see, I didnt choose the swing high (that's how I think it's called) as you did. After choosing the same datum as you did, I got the same levels. Thanks for following up! And along with Nut's post#229 it's really making more sense now. Thanks a lot for this thread as it is giving proper tools to develop fundamentals in S/R, imho.
  • #235
  • Jul 6, 2018 6:45am Jul 6, 2018 6:45am
Quoting Nut
Now if I place my fibs on length 1 then I get a golden mean either above or below my zero line. Depending on my view of the market depends upon which golden mean I choose. {image} {image}
I wonder if it is ok to choose the 1st wave up just right after wave AB in the image as the initial starting range? Thanks.
  • #236
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:02am Jul 6, 2018 7:02am
Quoting steven21
{quote} I wonder if it is ok to choose the 1st wave up just right after wave AB in the image as the initial starting range? Thanks.
As such there is nothing wrong with that as every length on the planet has a golden mean. The thing to do is to try it on several charts and see which method you prefer and which is the most accurate.
Cheers
Nut
  • #237
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:06am Jul 6, 2018 7:06am
Quoting Nut
So now after the golden mean in the last chart it is reasonable to expect a further 38.2 expansion from the golden mean. The expansion can be seen in this chart. Price has become trapped at this level as the sheep stealers and horse rustlers battle it out. This 38.2% level is the defining point between the uptrend or downtrend. Have I cleared things up or baffled everybody. No offence intended but it may take a little time for the concept take hold. {image}
what did i do wrong on the charts?
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  • #238
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:14am Jul 6, 2018 7:14am
Quoting Nut
So now after the golden mean in the last chart it is reasonable to expect a further 38.2 expansion from the golden mean. The expansion can be seen in this chart. Price has become trapped at this level as the sheep stealers and horse rustlers battle it out. This 38.2% level is the defining point between the uptrend or downtrend. Have I cleared things up or baffled everybody. No offence intended but it may take a little time for the concept take hold. {image}
you say that the 38.2 is the defining point between an up trend and down trend -- can you elaborate more on this?
What open the price for the 61.8 target? is it a close above or penetration or just touch of the 38.2 level? or is it price action?
and when do i have great certainty that the price is reversing and going down? close or penetration of the 100 level?
  • #239
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:37am Jul 6, 2018 7:37am
Quoting Nut
Hi all I began trading circa 1984 and am now winding down except for a little spread betting to keep my hand in. This made me consider what brought success in trading, luck(no), following market news(no), accurate price targets(yes). So this thread is to show people how I did it using Fibonacci. Now don't get bored already I am not going into the sex lives of rabbits or sunflowers etc. The methods describe in all the books are in my view no more than garbage. Having been through all the dramas rookie traders experience I decided this is the best...
Hey Nut, thanks for the give back. But how about putting up a trade explorer or myfxbook ?
  • #240
  • Jul 6, 2018 8:07am Jul 6, 2018 8:07am
Quoting raedmaa
{quote} what did i do wrong on the charts? {image} {image}
Hi radedmaa
The only way I can replicate your results is by using the Fib retracement tool rather than the Fib expansion tool. The expansion tool must be used to maintain the correct proportions
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