USD/TRY

exit my longs at gbp/jpy (small loss) and sp500 (breakeven)..still seems promising..but prefer to reduce risk..

short some usd/try at 4.713 (small leverage)..expecting 100 pips..see how

Ugly and probably not going to get better. See ya'll tomorrow.

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/...15/142/f6c.jpg

My long is still OK I wont give up with it

closed with 40 pips

very good job

Nice!

My buddy has connections to Bloomberg terminal. He posts someone's anlaysis over on facebook.

"TRY: The lira had been broadly stable since the election of 24 June, but received a major hit yesterday when inflation data for June accelerated well beyond the market's expectations. CPI inflation accelerated to 15.4%y/y from 12.1% and core inflation to nearly 15% as well. In our estimate, prices rose by 2.1%m/m after seasonal adjustment. PPI, which more directly represents manufacturing categories suffering FX pass-through, accelerated to 24%y/y in June. In short, the inflation impulse has yet to be fully felt. Our already pessimistic forecast of 16% inflation by year-end 2018 appears conservative now. We have insisted using 15%-16% inflation rate when calculating Turkey's real interest rate. On this basis, Turkey's 'real carry', which had been boosted to healthy levels by CBT's earlier rate hikes, has begun to sink again – it could drop all the way back to zero in the coming months. This is why CBT's resolve will once more be tested. In the near-term, President Erdogan is unlikely to express strong views about monetary policy, and CBT may even slip in one last rate hike. But, in the medium-term, the prospects will become completely clouded as a new economic framework will be put into place. CBT’s independence will be preserved on paper, but the FX market is unlikely to give it benefit of doubt until we witness free and regular rate hikes. The argument is circular: we do not expect CBT to hike rates just because of the inflation data (although it should!) – whether or not CBT can still hike interest rates will be known only if pressure on the lira were to continue; and without confirmation of credibility, there is no reason why pressure will not mount – hence, it is highly likely that further lira weakness awaits."

Okay. Out for real. Setting up for BBQ. Ciao

http://www.bloomberght.com/haberler/...yonla-mucadele

It seems there is an verbal intervention..economy minister says Central Bank will do what is to be done..then usd/try melting down...

i sold some at 4.67..it seems, drop will continue today and tomorrow..see how

Good catch, partner!

I see she's trying to break below 4.66 right now, but the dollar is lit up again.

The lower it goes, the more room for it to make a high of the day tomorrow at London.

To be stable-minded: the dollar is a mixed bag of confusion right now. It maybe needing London banks to straighten it out. If so, that brings my own scalp trade setup into some unappetizing risk while players get chewed up deciding its direction.

daily chart is quite bearish, it has very nice pin..4h looks neutral now and at the support 100 MA, closed the day a bit under support but not decisive yet..1h is at MA support also and didnt braek decisively uptrend yet, but looks it will break down soon..and lastly remember weekly chart, it was quite bearish at the end of last week, price has increased with inflation data expectation on Monday, then much higher inflation data on Tuesday, and doubts about rate increase ability of Central Bank on Wednesday..however in the afternoon of Wednesday Minister of Econmy said CB will do what is necessary has caused significant drop in pair..the market has started to expect rate increase after inflation data, then a kind of soothing words came from minister..as a result, considering daily and weekly chart, and also economy authorities' willing to not let more devaluation, i expect some more drop in pairs in following days..4.60 can be first target..i m still holding my shorts from yesterday..see how

note 1: foreign speculators may want to test high levels to see CB's ability and willingness to raise rates (actually did on Wednesday, and got some soothing words), but risk for longs is that CB or other economy authorities may intervene verbally or directly again..for example what happen if CB increase rate before meeting ?? fundamentals are quite bad, i wrote a lot about that, you know..but, risk of intervention is also quite concrete, i think..for safe longs, maybe we should wait for september or lower levels such as 4.50s, 4.55s...

note 2: risk for shorts is fundamentals which are so bad..and gov may behave irrational as happened at last months..speculators may force CB too aggressive..

tricky days..be careful..i m favor of range trading 4.50-4.70 in july..

Went long this pair 4.6815

It May Be A Trap. We'll see.

Cut loss -7 points. ha sneaky

She did not bat an eye when the dollar had a temp meltdown. She's loaded for bulls and the spread is tight now.

Somebody knows the dollar is going up. (y)

i bought some last hour for hedging purpose for morning up movements ard 4.681..then it went down a bit and up a bit..then i exited with a small loss..then up to 4.6815 anyway, i feel more comfortable now with shorts..when hedging i felt that i can miss down movement so exited with a small loss..but we can see some high levels (4.69s, 4.70s) before going down..it is quite likely..but may go down directly also..as a result i expect we will be down at the end of day..so i ll hold shorts for now, and maybe a fews days..

yeah. You were right. I sold at 4.6745

was lucky again

its been a good nigh so far

exited with taking profit at 4.6436..still very bearish..i may sell bounces..this become very nice after yesterday's missed opportunity

luckily i closed morning hedging buys