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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #77,181
  • Edited 4:58pm Jul 3, 2018 4:45pm | Edited 4:58pm
After the double top yesterday I decided to place 5 shorts in a risky anticipation of support line being broken. This had not worked earlier in the day but I was prepared to risk it. I took 2 profits high about 110.8, another tp through the night 110.7 then another when I woke this am. Considering TP my last trade at the green line. Will assess in next couple of hours. The big question of course is where will it find resistance on the inevitable up swing? Have locked SL at BE for yesterdays frustrating trading ie $200ish . I certainly hope the bears aren't exhausted yet
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  • #77,182
  • Jul 3, 2018 4:58pm Jul 3, 2018 4:58pm
I wouldn't be surprised if they test 111 by end of this week. If they break it we will see 113-114 soon
  • #77,183
  • Jul 3, 2018 5:00pm Jul 3, 2018 5:00pm
Is that not only a tweezer top on the daily, but engulfing bear candle?? I think I'll drop my TP a little lower. Worth a risk
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  • #77,184
  • Jul 3, 2018 5:26pm Jul 3, 2018 5:26pm
Quoting hellsbells
Is that not only a tweezer top on the daily, but engulfing bear candle?? I think I'll drop my TP a little lower. Worth a risk {image}
i think the same.
109.87 might be a good target, despite i believe that still some room up during Asia. then London bears will take the lead while US takes the day off...
If you don't know how to earn money, don't loose it.
  • #77,185
  • Jul 3, 2018 5:39pm Jul 3, 2018 5:39pm
Quoting MorganX
I wouldn't be surprised if they test 111 by end of this week. If they break it we will see 113-114 soon
why do you say 113-114 when trade war risks, US domestic issues, and geopolitics all point to the pair trending down? 111 is proving to be a challenge for the pair as the price is being rejected constantly when it approaches the level
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #77,186
  • Jul 3, 2018 5:52pm Jul 3, 2018 5:52pm
resistence still arround 1.12
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POSTMASTER
  • #77,187
  • Jul 3, 2018 6:45pm Jul 3, 2018 6:45pm
Quoting coolmakina
{quote} i think the same. 109.87 might be a good target, despite i believe that still some room up during Asia. then London bears will take the lead while US takes the day off...
That would be 1000 pips and $2500 trade for me. Sounds wonderful. Lets try lol
  • #77,188
  • Jul 3, 2018 7:16pm Jul 3, 2018 7:16pm
I've readjusted my daily chart to H4 as it's already found resistance to it. Surely its heading straight for the 50 and 100 sma but I can't bring myself to enter any more trades at this stage
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  • #77,189
  • Jul 3, 2018 8:27pm Jul 3, 2018 8:27pm
IT is still in the box. don't expect big movement.
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #77,190
  • Jul 3, 2018 10:01pm Jul 3, 2018 10:01pm
Want to buy the shit out of this. Lots of money to be made on the USD orders.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #77,191
  • Jul 3, 2018 10:04pm Jul 3, 2018 10:04pm
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} why do you say 113-114 when trade war risks, US domestic issues, and geopolitics all point to the pair trending down? 111 is proving to be a challenge for the pair as the price is being rejected constantly when it approaches the level
Because markets are irrational and ‘logic’ can be one sided. Lots of wealth is moving INTO the US thus the pair will likely appreciate. Just because there’s no support now doesn’t mean their won’t be or isn’t.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #77,192
  • Jul 3, 2018 11:31pm Jul 3, 2018 11:31pm
Closed my last short now at 110.474. I did this primarily because
1) it leaves me with a decent profit for the week , I'm finished for the week
2) I truly did not like the whole bearish 4H candle finishing so neatly on the 100 sma, which also coincided with an approx 50% retracement . I suspected a bounce up right away and regretted not closing the trade immediately for a good job done. Now the creep up has started. I'm going off to enjoy the rest of my day, Good Luck!
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  • #77,193
  • Jul 4, 2018 4:41am Jul 4, 2018 4:41am
Hi all, new here, first post. Thanks for sharing these screenshots about USDJPY; It’s helping me to learn how to analyse the charts.

I am working through School of Pipsology at Babypips but will also look at Forex Peace Army’s course as well. I setup a small demo account,1:100 leverage to gain some experience and make it as real as possible.

With a 0.02 lot, I went short from 110.774 to t/p 110.294 with a s/l 112.380 after recognising S/R and drawing the lines. Quite happy with the trade but it was nervous racking as I went short against the market when it was bullish. I’ve got a lot to learn.

Cheers
  • #77,194
  • Jul 4, 2018 7:49am Jul 4, 2018 7:49am
Soros is a great trader/investor (and many others, well known or not) by keeping political bias in check. Someone up there in Canada is doing the opposite. Oh well.
  • #77,195
  • Jul 4, 2018 10:37am Jul 4, 2018 10:37am
USDJPY weekly chart, we have found it is bearish pattern & its a long way up...

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  • #77,196
  • Jul 4, 2018 11:10am Jul 4, 2018 11:10am
USD/JPY is hovering around 110.50 after rejecting the 111.00 earlier today. The bearish sentiment prevails and the pair is vulnerable around 110.15 where the 100-day SMA is providing first support.
  • #77,197
  • Jul 4, 2018 4:06pm Jul 4, 2018 4:06pm
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} why do you say 113-114 when trade war risks, US domestic issues, and geopolitics all point to the pair trending down? 111 is proving to be a challenge for the pair as the price is being rejected constantly when it approaches the level
You can say exactly the same about 109 but opposite direction. As I mentioned before breaking 111 may take us to 113/14. Price is never to high to not to be higher...
  • #77,198
  • Edited 6:49pm Jul 4, 2018 4:08pm | Edited 6:49pm
Last week the separation of 30 year BONDS and the USDJPY occurred resulting in me with my pants down. You can see that in the screen below, where an order was taking in the first box.

After the large upward thrust, the market presented itself with a long opportunity followed by nice price action creating a nice identifiable trend. The point of this post is to point out, that the divergence still prevails, between Bonds and the USD. Monday and Tuesday we met some very strong downward pressure moving 85 pips from the high, and 65 pips from the uptrend break.

You will also see the oscillator added, below is the coefficient correlation, when they diverge with Bonds leading the way, you will see the USD playing catch up.

This downward move isn't over at this time, with Trumps deficits growing, 30 year bonds will see more downward action, as investors move out of shorter term assets and the Japs move assets out of the US, as interest rates continue higher.

No, price will not move in a straight line, yes price will bounce up and down, but overall the direction is down.


Keep your eyes open and your mouse ready!
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #77,199
  • Jul 4, 2018 5:14pm Jul 4, 2018 5:14pm
Quoting ironjaw
Hi all, new here, first post. Thanks for sharing these screenshots about USDJPY; It’s helping me to learn how to analyse the charts. I am working through School of Pipsology at Babypips but will also look at Forex Peace Army’s course as well. I setup a small demo account,1:100 leverage to gain some experience and make it as real as possible. With a 0.02 lot, I went short from 110.774 to t/p 110.294 with a s/l 112.380 after recognising S/R and drawing the lines. Quite happy with the trade but it was nervous racking as I went short against the market...
Hi ironjaw, good job with your first trade. My advice would be to tighten your SL right on up. One of the hardest things in this business (for me at least) was learning to accept losses. The more time you spend trading FOREX the more you'll get used to seeing it suddenly go crazy and move say 500pips in a very short time frame. You will have no control over it, and it will have nothing to do with your technical analysis ability, and if you have a loose SL you will lose money so fast.

My other advice is this, never ever trust the current candle until it's completed. I rely heavily upon TL myself. I have lost lots of money seeing a bullish / bearish breakout candle and dived on in, only for the candle to finish as an hammer or shooting star and seeing my trades sitting out in the wasteland like total losers.

If you look at your trade and are not happy with it, close it. That is a hot hot tip. A trade that looks bad probably is bad and there's no point watching it get worse.

Always look at what news is expected that day, and for me trading east coast Australia, I am very wary of 10am, 11am (AEST), 3pm, 5pm, and any other random time to be honest

Good Luck,
H
  • #77,200
  • Jul 5, 2018 12:50am Jul 5, 2018 12:50am
Market Analysis: price is raging right now, therefore we suggest if price cross one of the lower or upper band levels then it might start strong down or up trend.

Trading charts: M15, M30, H1, H4
Our recommendation: Market is ranging

upper band level 1: 110.854
upper band level 2: 111.148

lower band level 1: 110.099
lower band level 2: 109.798

Time: July 5, 11:42 AM (UTC+6)

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